Victorian poll, Queensland election, Groom by-election

A good poll result from Labor in Victoria, an even better election result for Labor in Queensland, and only four candidates come forward for the Groom by-election.

The Herald-Sun reported on Monday on a “privately conducted” Victorian state poll by YouGov that showed Labor maintaining a commanding 55-45 lead on two-party preferred, from primary votes of Labor 44%, Coalition 40% and Greens 11%. This compares with 57.3-42.7 at Labor’s landslide win in 2018, when the primary votes were Labor 42.9%, Coalition 35.2% and Greens 10.7%. Personal ratings are good for Daniel Andrews (65% approval and 32% disapproval) and disastrous for Liberal leader Michael O’Brien (26% approval and 53% disapproval).

The poll nonetheless found that 55% thought it fair to hold Daniel Andrews responsible for the second COVID-19 wave, compared with 40% for not fair. Fifty per cent believed Andrews had been honest and transparent about the hotel quarantine failure against 43% for not honest and transparent; 53% said Victoria was heading in the right direction versus 39% who said it is “time for change”. The poll was conducted from October 29 to November from a sample of 1241.

UPDATE: Now a Roy Morgan poll gives Labor a lead of 58.5-41.5, up from 51.5-48.5 a month ago, from primary votes of Labor 45% (up five), Coalition 34.5% (down 5.5) and Greens 11% (up two). Daniel Andrews’ approval rating split is out from 59-41 to 71-29. The poll was conducted by SMS on Monday and Tuesday from a sample of 818.

In real election news, the Electoral Commission of Queensland has been completing preference distributions for the October 31 state election, and while the numbers haven’t been officially published, Antony Green relates that luck has favoured Labor in the final preference distributions in Bundaberg and Nicklin. These seats have been gained from the LNP with respective margins of 11 and 79 votes, pending LNP requests for recounts.

Confirmation of these results would leave Labor with 52 seats in a parliament of 93, a net gain of four compared with the 2017 result. South Brisbane was lost to the Greens (6.0% margin, 9.5% swing), while five were gained from the LNP Bundaberg (by a 0.0% margin with a 4.2% swing), Nicklin (a 0.1% margin and a 5.4% swing), Caloundra (a 2.5% margin and a 5.9% swing), Hervey Bay (a 2.2% margin and an 11.3% swing) and Pumicestone (a 5.1% margin and a 6.0% swing). These are Labor’s first ever wins in Nicklin and Caloundra, both of which are on the Sunshine Coast.

The LNP is duly reduced from 38 seats to 33, unless you count their recovery of Whitsunday after its previous member was expelled from the party mid-term. Their one piece of good news from late counting was that they managed to retain the Gold Coast seat of Currumbin by 310 votes, a 0.3% margin against a swing to Labor of 3.0% (David Crisafulli will be chosen as the party’s new leader unopposed at a party room meeting today). South Brisbane increases the Greens from one to two, with the party having easily its 2017 gain of Maiwar from the LNP, while Katter’s Australian Party and One Nation achieved status quo results of three seats and one respectively, as did independents with Sandy Bolton comfortably retaining Noosa.

Official results are naturally available from the ECQ; the numbers on my live results facility are emphatically not official, in that I have preserved them as they were a week ago before the ECQ removed the indicative two-candidate preferred counts. This means both the booth-level two-candidate preferred results and preference flow by candidate breakdowns are preserved, albeit in not entirely complete form.

Finally, while the attention of most of us has been firmly elsewhere, the process for the November 28 Groom by-election has continued chugging along, with nominations having been declared last Friday. The by-election has attracted a remarkably thin field of four candidates, which somewhat to my surprise includes one from Labor: Chris Meibusch, a community lawyer and unsuccessful candidate for the Toowoomba mayoralty in March. The preselection of LNP candidate Garth Hamilton was related here. The other two candidates are from the Liberal Democrats and Sustainable Australia – as well as there being no One Nation presence, this must be the first time a while that the Greens have left a federal contest uncontested.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

635 comments on “Victorian poll, Queensland election, Groom by-election”

Comments Page 9 of 13
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  1. Of National Anthems, when i grew up God Save the Queen was our Anthem and the sixth verse, oddly never sung these days:

    Lord grant that Marshal Wade
    May by thy mighty aid
    Victory bring.
    May he sedition hush,
    And like a torrent rush,
    Rebellious Scots to crush.
    God save the King!

    I love sedition! 🙂

  2. I used to love the part of the Manly Ferry trip across the Heads, the rougher the better, with waves rolling from the open ocean through the nearly one mile wide gap.

  3. Quasar @ #397 Friday, November 13th, 2020 – 9:32 am

    Was fortunate enough to live on the Harbourside in Manly for 14 years and would see where the ferry was to judge my run down to the wharf. Those terrifying trips through the heads…I was eventually able to guess the ferocity of the waves against the cliffs and take a bus instead. My young grandchildren took great pride in being able to name each one from a distance and the emotional impact of those gorgeous vessels has been underrated.
    Like the Star Ferry in HongKong, they feel authentic and a lovely trip back in time where you can look over the side of the ferry to see the odd whale. They are excellent with restless young kids who love to walk around in the fresh air.
    As a now regular rivercat user, I can vouch that they are utilitarian and lack anticipation.
    A massive loss, not unlike getting rid of the old trams.

    Lovely. Next we can do the bridge toll – threepence a car and threepence per adult. Man in booth peering into car back seat.

  4. Anna plays it tough. Her not so subtle message is, the LNP are irrelevant (and a bit unstable).

    Asked if she feared or welcomed news of new LNP leader David Crisafulli, voted in by his party room on Thursday, Ms Palaszczuk was dismissive: “Not really, they can put up whoever they want, I don’t really care. There has been Campbell Newman, Lawrence Springborg, Tim Nicholls, Deb Frecklington — that’s a matter for them.”

    https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/queensland/premier-defends-growing-team-as-cabinet-members-sworn-in-20201112-p56e1h.html

  6. Bus and ferry is still my preferred option for getting to the city from the Northern Beaches, even though the B-Line is a bit quicker.

    Has to be one of the best commutes in the world.

  7. Rakali @ #401 Friday, November 13th, 2020 – 9:38 am

    Of National Anthems, when i grew up God Save the Queen was our Anthem and the sixth verse, oddly never sung these days:

    Lord grant that Marshal Wade
    May by thy mighty aid
    Victory bring.
    May he sedition hush,
    And like a torrent rush,
    Rebellious Scots to crush.
    God save the King!

    I love sedition! 🙂

    Waltzing Matilda. That’s sedition. And I love it. It still tears me up when sung en masse.

  8. Robert Reich
    @RBReich

    ” The Trump campaign has been bombarding supporters with fundraising emails and texts, directing them to an “Official Election Defense Fund” that supposedly finances the campaign’s lawsuits and recount demands. But the fine print tells a very different story.
    Trump’s new PAC (Political Action Committee) gets 60% of the money raised for the “Official Election Defense Fund,” and the Republican Party gets the other 40%.
    So if a Trump donor gave $500, $300 would go to Trump’s PAC, $200 would go to the RNC, and nothing would go to the fund. ”

    It’s a scam to raise money. Trump and the RNC can use the money for any purpose they wish. Trump has some big money problems. Almost all of his assets are under performing. Covid19 hasn’t been kind to Hotels and Golf Courses. He has some huge loans due soon. He needs cash. You can expect him to keep doing lots of rallies and fund raising.

  10. I wondered what Queensland is doing to become renewable and wean itself off coal. So I looked at the government ministries. I’ve listed those ministries that I think would be involved and the relevant minister for each one. My numbering refers to the implied priority published on the Directory of Queensland Ministers and Portfolios: #1 Premier, #2 Deputy, and so on. There are 18 ministries, and 5 assistant ministers. I did it this way to see if there is an implied priority to the effort. De Brenni (#8) and McCallum (#23) appear to carry the bulk of the responsibility, but with Miles (#2, #3) they might have high level support.

    #2 STEVEN MILES Deputy Premier and Minister for State Development, Infrastructure, Local Government and Planning
    #3 STEVEN MILES Deputy Premier and Minister for Regional Development and Manufacturing and Minister for Water
    #8 MICK DE BRENNI Minister for Energy, Renewables and Hydrogen and Minister for Public Works and Procurement
    #15 DI FARMER Minister for Employment and Small Business and Minister for Training and Skills Development
    #16 SCOTT STEWART Minister for Resources
    #23 LANCE McCALLUM Assistant Minister for Hydrogen Development and the 50% Renewable Energy Target by 2030.
    https://cabinet.qld.gov.au/ministers.aspx

    And something changed last night. Glenn Butcher had been listed as Minister for Regional Development and Manufacturing and Minister for Water. This morning the ministry is Steven Miles’.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-12/qld-state-election-2020-who-is-who-in-palaszczuk-new-cabinet/12872948

  14. ‘Fox and “MAGA TV” being as vile as possible in their competition to scrape the deplorable dregs off the bottom of the barrel is not something that we should be looking forward to. Another far-right conservative propaganda machine is the last thing the world needs right now. They will stoop to even deeper lows and whip their audiences into even more of a hysterical frenzy than they already are in the quest for higher ratings.’

    I don’t think this is that much of a big deal as mentioned Fox News, One America News, and Newsmax TV already exist. If anything these stations are fighting over staunch conservative viewers who already have their views and won’t be changing them. All that Trumps channel will do is create less of a piece of the pie for the competing channels that they are fighting over.

    Rupert Murdoch has suggested that Trump does not have the experience in running a media organization and therefore is not overly concerned. Al Gore is a very successful businessmen- but he found it more difficult then anticipated when he created the Left version with Current TV which was one of his few failed ventures. Trump may have experience in business with Real Estate, but it doesn’t mean that experience will translate into media.

  15. Last night OH and I watched the most enjoyable movie, “The Dish”. Today I read:

    Australia’s Parkes Telescope Just Got a New Name: Murriyang, Which Means “Skyworld”
    The telescope received the name Murriyang, which represents the ‘Skyworld’ where a prominent creator spirit of the Wiradjuri Dreaming, Biyaami (Baiame), lives.

    Telescopes at CSIRO’s Parkes Observatory received Wiradjuri names at a ceremony on 8 November 2020. Credit: C. Watson/CSIRO.

    https://www.universetoday.com/148743/australias-parkes-telescope-just-got-a-new-name-murriyang-which-means-skyworld/

  16. Itza

    “Waltzing Matilda. That’s sedition. And I love it. It still tears me up when sung en masse.”
    —–

    Yes. I think the current Anthem is quite uninspiring. It seems a bit “pro forma”.

    I think we have to let one develop organically.

    It would be good if one developed that reflected the ancientness of the land and even … both stiring and meditative … I find Gurumul Yunupingu’s music very moving …

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x8-YMpYbRqY

  17. Very telling and essentially what happens when not everyone votes.

    White evangelical Christians remain firmly in the Republican camp. Whether male or female, or from the North or the South, they remain in a party increasingly defined by cultural, racial and emotional factors. To them, it does not matter whether President Trump was incompetent at addressing covid-19 or was personally corrupt; he was their warrior against “others” (elites, urbanites, minorities, immigrants). Politics is not about problem-solving but rather about “owning the libs.” Robert P. Jones, head of the Public Religion Research Institute and author of “White Too Long: The Legacy of White Supremacy in American Christianity,” told me this group continues to punch far above its weight at the polls.

    “While White evangelical Protestants have declined as a proportion of the population over the last decade, from 21 percent in 2008 to 15 percent in 2019, they have maintained an outsize presence at the ballot box, somewhere between one-fifth and one-quarter of voters,” Jones said. He described this as a “time machine,” whereby the White evangelical Christians’ outsize vote “has the effect of turning back the demographic clock by nearly a decade. In other words, we’re living in the demographic realities of 2020, but our elections are being conducted, demographically speaking, in 2012 America.”

    After accounting for differences between the two post-election voting analysis and taking out non-Protestants (who may still identify as evangelical), White protestant evangelicals still make up 20 to 25 percent of the voting population and went heavily for President Trump. Trump received upwards of 81 percent of the population according to the National Election Pool and AP/VoteCast exit polls, roughly the same as in 2016. “Among key battleground states in the Sun Belt, Trump’s support was even higher: 82% in Florida, 89% in Georgia, 86% in North Carolina, and 82% in Texas,” Jones said. “In these increasingly competitive states, White evangelicals were the decisive force anchoring those states against the strong tides of demographic and cultural change.”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/11/12/what-election-tells-us-about-religion-america/

  18. A fascinating tweet:

    Donald J. Trump
    @realDonaldTrump
    .
    @FoxNews
    daytime ratings have completely collapsed. Weekend daytime even WORSE. Very sad to watch this happen, but they forgot what made them successful, what got them there. They forgot the Golden Goose. The biggest difference between the 2016 Election, and 2020, was
    @FoxNews
    !

  19. Perparim @ #408 Friday, November 13th, 2020 – 9:48 am

    Robert Reich
    @RBReich

    ” The Trump campaign has been bombarding supporters with fundraising emails and texts, directing them to an “Official Election Defense Fund” that supposedly finances the campaign’s lawsuits and recount demands. But the fine print tells a very different story.
    Trump’s new PAC (Political Action Committee) gets 60% of the money raised for the “Official Election Defense Fund,” and the Republican Party gets the other 40%.
    So if a Trump donor gave $500, $300 would go to Trump’s PAC, $200 would go to the RNC, and nothing would go to the fund. ”

    It’s a scam to raise money. Trump and the RNC can use the money for any purpose they wish. Trump has some big money problems. Almost all of his assets are under performing. Covid19 hasn’t been kind to Hotels and Golf Courses. He has some huge loans due soon. He needs cash. You can expect him to keep doing lots of rallies and fund raising.

    And Deutsche Bank have, or are, pulling the plug on him.

  22. Fox and “MAGA TV” being as vile as possible in their competition to scrape the deplorable dregs off the bottom of the barrel is not something that we should be looking forward to. Another far-right conservative propaganda machine is the last thing the world needs right now. They will stoop to even deeper lows and whip their audiences into even more of a hysterical frenzy than they already are in the quest for higher ratings.

    Disagree. This is the right-wing version of Labor vs. Greens. And just as when the left eats itself the right wins, when the right eats itself the left wins.

    May Fox News and MAGA TV have a long and bloody civil war over who can more thoroughly debase themselves to keep the crazies onside. Anyone halfway sane or better will move elsewhere. 🙂

  24. Labor needs to educate voters in Queensland to win the Federal election.

    Get the Lalcolm Turnbull video attacking Paul Kelly from QandA. Start running it as Labor party advertising starting tomorrow.

    Get the long term education in there.
    Queenslanders are open to listening to state Labor. Politicians backing up Turnbull will change attitudes on the reality. Given the Murdoch dominance and the latest freebie from the LNP with taxpayer dollars make Queensland voters ridicule the Courier Mail as they did the Melbourne Truth.

  26. Well, QAnon is disintegrating before our eyes:

    For regulars on the internet forum 8kun, Election Day was supposed to be a revelation. President Donald Trump would win in a landslide, maybe sweeping all 50 states, in a glorious victory foretold by 8kun’s most famous user: the anonymous personality known as Q.

    Instead, Trump lost, Q has gone silent, and one of 8kun’s main administrators has quit.

    …“The only reason people are still going to 8chan at all is because of Q,” Fredrick Brennan, who founded the site as 8chan, told The Daily Beast. “All the other users have basically left. It’s pretty abysmal over that right now, as far as user engagement is concerned.”

    In 2015, Brennan turned over control of the forum to Jim Watkins, a Philippines-based American who previously made his fortune running porn sites. Watkins’ adult son Ron also helped run the forum. Brennan and the Watkinses had a falling out in 2018, leading Brennan to denounce the Watkinses, and the latter to file a lawsuit against him.

    …And as of Wednesday, with Q still quiet and Ron Watkins ostensibly gone, the site’s path forward looked less certain than it has in even some of its most embattled moments.

    Brennan said he was still waiting for proof that anyone besides Ron Watkins was even running the show.

    https://www.thedailybeast.com/qanons-home-8kun-is-implodingand-q-has-gone-silent

    Trump’s universe collapsing like a black hole. Pretty appropriate metaphor really.

  28. Sorry thats Malcolm Turnbull of course.

    Cat
    some advertising in Queensland linking Fox and the Courier Mail would help too.

    Labor is going to have US media attacking Fox and it’s links to Trump for a few years. Labor needs to use that. I give Kudos to Kevin Rudd on the timing of his petition.

  29. Yep. Though as a piece I read this morning said, that’s what they want:

    In a preview of an upcoming interview with 60 Minutes, Barack Obama said Republicans who are humoring Donald Trump’s refusal to accept loss are on “a dangerous path.

    “The president doesn’t like to lose and never admits loss,” Obama said.

    I’m more troubled by the fact that other Republican officials who clearly know better are going along with this, are humoring him in this fashion,” he said. “It is one more step in delegitimizing not just the incoming Biden administration, but democracy generally. And that’s a dangerous path.”

  30. The Department of Homeland Security broke from President Donald Trump’s baseless allegations of a “stolen” election on Thursday and said there is no evidence of fraud.

    “The November 3rd election was the most secure in American history,” the DHS said in a statement.

    The Department’s Elections Infrastructure Government Coordinating Council & the Election Infrastructure Sector Coordinating Executive Committees found “no evidence that any voting system deleted or lost votes, changed votes, or was in any way compromised.”

    Trump has refused to concede the election and acknowledge Joe Biden as the President-elect, and has relentlessly sought to spread misinformation and falsehoods about the electoral process.

    The DHS said it has the “utmost confidence” in the integrity of the US election system and infrastructure, and urged people to “turn to elections officials as trusted voices as they administer elections.”

  33. The Collins Street peregrine falcons have flown the coop! At 6:02 and 7:15 am…..lockdown has ended!

    As for the anthem…..I Am Australian is close to perfect, and written by legends The Seekers…..

  35. Can’t they just smile and nod? Or would that be too much like a subservient bow, for Scotty?

    @AaronDodd
    1h
    BREAKING: PM Scott Morrison and NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian have astonished onlookers with an impromptu chicken dance this morning. #auspol

  36. Trump’s latest conspiracy theory, as promoted by his co-conspirators at OAN, ‘his votes’ were digitally deleted 🙄

    Donald Trump is claiming nearly three million votes were “deleted” by the digital voting system used in some American states for the US presidential election.

    Mr Trump has blamed the Dominion software for wiping 2.7 million of his votes or switching votes from him to his rival Joe Biden in key states.

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/world/2020/11/13/trump-election-votes/

  39. Torchbearer @ #431 Friday, November 13th, 2020 – 11:47 am

    The Collins Street peregrine falcons have flown the coop! At 6:02 and 7:15 am…..lockdown has ended!

    As for the anthem…..I Am Australian is close to perfect, and written by legends The Seekers…..

    It was written by Bruce Woodley, a member of the Seekers.
    Having said that, national anthems are stoopid.
    Nationalism is even more stoopider.

  43. Both Waltzing Matilda and I am Australian are seriously cringe worthy and would be the worst national anthems. The current one isn’t great but its not as bad the some of the alternatives.

  46. a r says:
    Friday, November 13, 2020 at 11:44 am
    Mystery food vans, oh no!

    It’s all over for Biden. They will have to cancel the election results. The Constitution clearly states that food vans must carry food.

  47. On National Anthems

    The Seekers one is great if we have to have one. The fact that Hansonites and Lefties like it shows the unity of it.

    It’s also unique and would stand out in a good way at Olympic style competitions of anthems.

    Edit: plus being a National Anthem it’s commercial use would drastically decline. We would hear it less on our TV promos

  49. Q: I am Australian is seriously cringe worthy…is it really? …all anthems are cringey to some extent, I Am Australian at least tries to address the complexities and beauty of Australia.

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