Victorian poll, Queensland election, Groom by-election

A good poll result from Labor in Victoria, an even better election result for Labor in Queensland, and only four candidates come forward for the Groom by-election.

The Herald-Sun reported on Monday on a “privately conducted” Victorian state poll by YouGov that showed Labor maintaining a commanding 55-45 lead on two-party preferred, from primary votes of Labor 44%, Coalition 40% and Greens 11%. This compares with 57.3-42.7 at Labor’s landslide win in 2018, when the primary votes were Labor 42.9%, Coalition 35.2% and Greens 10.7%. Personal ratings are good for Daniel Andrews (65% approval and 32% disapproval) and disastrous for Liberal leader Michael O’Brien (26% approval and 53% disapproval).

The poll nonetheless found that 55% thought it fair to hold Daniel Andrews responsible for the second COVID-19 wave, compared with 40% for not fair. Fifty per cent believed Andrews had been honest and transparent about the hotel quarantine failure against 43% for not honest and transparent; 53% said Victoria was heading in the right direction versus 39% who said it is “time for change”. The poll was conducted from October 29 to November from a sample of 1241.

UPDATE: Now a Roy Morgan poll gives Labor a lead of 58.5-41.5, up from 51.5-48.5 a month ago, from primary votes of Labor 45% (up five), Coalition 34.5% (down 5.5) and Greens 11% (up two). Daniel Andrews’ approval rating split is out from 59-41 to 71-29. The poll was conducted by SMS on Monday and Tuesday from a sample of 818.

In real election news, the Electoral Commission of Queensland has been completing preference distributions for the October 31 state election, and while the numbers haven’t been officially published, Antony Green relates that luck has favoured Labor in the final preference distributions in Bundaberg and Nicklin. These seats have been gained from the LNP with respective margins of 11 and 79 votes, pending LNP requests for recounts.

Confirmation of these results would leave Labor with 52 seats in a parliament of 93, a net gain of four compared with the 2017 result. South Brisbane was lost to the Greens (6.0% margin, 9.5% swing), while five were gained from the LNP Bundaberg (by a 0.0% margin with a 4.2% swing), Nicklin (a 0.1% margin and a 5.4% swing), Caloundra (a 2.5% margin and a 5.9% swing), Hervey Bay (a 2.2% margin and an 11.3% swing) and Pumicestone (a 5.1% margin and a 6.0% swing). These are Labor’s first ever wins in Nicklin and Caloundra, both of which are on the Sunshine Coast.

The LNP is duly reduced from 38 seats to 33, unless you count their recovery of Whitsunday after its previous member was expelled from the party mid-term. Their one piece of good news from late counting was that they managed to retain the Gold Coast seat of Currumbin by 310 votes, a 0.3% margin against a swing to Labor of 3.0% (David Crisafulli will be chosen as the party’s new leader unopposed at a party room meeting today). South Brisbane increases the Greens from one to two, with the party having easily its 2017 gain of Maiwar from the LNP, while Katter’s Australian Party and One Nation achieved status quo results of three seats and one respectively, as did independents with Sandy Bolton comfortably retaining Noosa.

Official results are naturally available from the ECQ; the numbers on my live results facility are emphatically not official, in that I have preserved them as they were a week ago before the ECQ removed the indicative two-candidate preferred counts. This means both the booth-level two-candidate preferred results and preference flow by candidate breakdowns are preserved, albeit in not entirely complete form.

Finally, while the attention of most of us has been firmly elsewhere, the process for the November 28 Groom by-election has continued chugging along, with nominations having been declared last Friday. The by-election has attracted a remarkably thin field of four candidates, which somewhat to my surprise includes one from Labor: Chris Meibusch, a community lawyer and unsuccessful candidate for the Toowoomba mayoralty in March. The preselection of LNP candidate Garth Hamilton was related here. The other two candidates are from the Liberal Democrats and Sustainable Australia – as well as there being no One Nation presence, this must be the first time a while that the Greens have left a federal contest uncontested.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

635 comments on “Victorian poll, Queensland election, Groom by-election”

Comments Page 10 of 13
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  2. Torchbearer
    Maybe I’m thinking of a different song.

    If i had to choose a song i would look at Solid Rock or Great Southern Land.

  4. It seems like everyone has a vaccine these days…until you read the fine print.

    10.17am

    A Queensland-developed vaccine shows promising results with Federal Health Minister Greg Hunt announcing today that stage three trials were ready to begin.

    Australia’s homegrown COVID-19 vaccine is proving to be safe and effective in elderly people and will progress to stage three trials, federal Health Minister Greg Hunt has announced.

    “This vaccine will potentially be ready for delivery to Australians early in the third quarter of 2021,” he said.

    https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/coronavirus-live-updates-victoria-chases-13th-day-of-no-new-cases-nsw-seeks-border-opening-usa-europe-continue-to-face-growing-wave-20201113-p56e91.html

    A responsible Health Minister would be cautioning people rather than bragging about homegrown science.

  5. Vogon Poet @ #442 Friday, November 13th, 2020 – 9:22 am

    Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #441 Friday, November 13th, 2020 – 11:19 am

    Vogon Poet @ #438 Friday, November 13th, 2020 – 9:16 am

    Butler has offered to quit as CC minister, Albo should take him up on the offer.

    Wouldn’t that just further encourage Fitzgibbon.

    2 duds gone. Fitzy’s influence is over rated imo, but time will tell.

    I agree Fitzgibbon’s is over rated, but in this instance it’s what Fitzgibbon believes that’s important and if he thinks his approach is having an effect, it would further encourage him to keep doing it.

    The main point of the blow up was that Fitzgibbon was contradicting Labor’s position and needed shut up.

    I certainly disagree with the idea of Butler being a dud, he has consistently produced good policy. It’s hardly his fault that it has become politically based, rather than a rationally based one.

  9. As for the anthem…..I Am Australian is close to perfect, and written by legends The Seekers…..

    It was written by Bruce Woodley, a member of the Seekers.
    Having said that, national anthems are stoopid.
    Nationalism is even more stoopider.
    ________________________________

    Mundo is by the way, correct on all accounts with this. Despite that, Alpha Zero reckons you could adapt “My Island Home” to be very representative.

  13. US politics is mired in covid.

    Richard and Liz Uihlein, conservative megadonors who own the Uline packaging company based in Wisconsin and are two of the Republican party’s most significant financial backers, told employees on Wednesday that they had contracted the disease after being “around people with Covid”.

    “After these long months, I thought we’d never get it. Well, Trump got it,” she said.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/12/billionaire-trump-donors-covid-19-richard-liz-uihlein
    She’s doesn’t directly blame Trump, but it’s curious why she might chose to include him in her message to employees. Is she saying that even Trump can “get it” so this isn’t her fault? It’s an interesting perspective on a disease if so.

  14. “bc says:
    Friday, November 13, 2020 at 12:39 pm
    I see Cummings is going out the door. A good day for the UK when he’s finally gone.”

    Cummings overplayed his hand. Tried to make one of his friends the new new Chief of Staff for the PM and met fierce opposition. With Brexit almost done and with the Tories holding a large majority in Parliament he is not seen as being of any more use and more of a trouble maker than anything else. Outside the PM’s office he is loathed. If Boris doesn’t get his act together soon don’t be surprised the Tories don’t dump him for someone else before the next election.

  15. “Dandy one hopes that Qld Labor getting its shit together in terms of providing new industries to replace coal might help Federal Labor (its something Fed Labor ought to be doing).”

    Spot on. (And well done Anthony Lynham).

  16. Watching the women’s Penthalon at the Sydney Olympics (amazing fun), the one instruction was silence for the showjumping (event 4) not least because the competitors only met their horses a hour or so beforehand. True to form AAAOOO! as the Australian competitor came out.

  17. Queensland Government shows a promising start on “getting its shit together”.
    The Queensland Cabinet and Ministerial Directory lists the following Ministers.
    – State Development, Infrastructure, Local Government and Planning
    – Regional Development and Manufacturing
    – Water
    – Energy, Renewables and Hydrogen
    – Public Works and Procurement
    – Employment and Small Business
    – Training and Skills Development
    And an Assistant Minister for
    – Hydrogen Development and the 50% Renewable Energy Target by 2030.

  18. Mark Butler has been shadow climate change minister for seven years. It is time for a change. He has been given a far better run than other shadows in high profile portfolios. He should resign from the portfolio in which he has achieved nothing.

    Bowen went after the last election. Catherine King went from health after the last election. Tany P. resigned as deputy and Shorten resigned as leader. All appropriate responses. Mark Butler stayed on despite producing a suite of climate action policies over six years that failed to excite voters. He should have taken responsibility for that, his inability to convince voters and he should have stood aside or Albanese should have had the fortitude to bump him sideways.

    Time for him to go.

    Saying that Fitzgibbon was out of line for demanding publically that Butler should go. It should not have happened and Fitzgibbon should get a huge left hook for his performance.

  19. On acceptance of the Covid-19 vaccine, the gov says that there has always been high acceptance of vaccinations in Oz.

    This may be true for mothers with children. However, there are many adults who refuse the flu vaccine because they are convinced it gave them the flu.

  21. Personal peeve.

    Data released by Queensland Courts shows there has been a 246 per cent increase in DVO breaches between July and September, when there were 644 breaches, compared to 261 for the same period last year.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-13/three-people-breach-domestic-violence-orders-371-times-queenslan/12879766
    It is actually an INCREASE of 146%. An increase of 100% used to mean there is now twice as much as before. (The story itself is about 3 men who between them were responsible for 371 of the 644 breaches.)

  22. Morrison’s attempt to sweep these matters under the carpet has backfired:

    [‘The Prime Minister had a holding line on Tuesday about the behaviour of Christian Porter and Alan Tudge, the two ministers at the centre of new allegations about the culture of Parliament House.

    “Those matters were addressed by my predecessor at the time,” Morrison said. He dismissed the idea of an investigation into his ministers because the events had taken place two or three years ago, when Porter and Tudge answered to Malcolm Turnbull.’]

    Prime Minister Scott Morrison will have to adjust his response as the formal complaints take their course.

    But the holding line did not hold for long. It was too flimsy to hold much, anyway. Within a day, it was clear the government would have to deal with formal complaints that were filed last week with the Department of Finance. The ghosts had come back from the grave.’]

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/ghosts-of-the-past-come-back-to-haunt-pm-20201112-p56e2f.html

  23. The pollies who are making financial decisions really do not understand what is happening in the community. Their meal allowances are out of step. I wonder when Josh Frydenberg last missed a meal?

    John Hewson.

    When school reopened for term 4, Katlyn* returned to Learning Ground, deathly white, stick thin. The 13-year-old held onto the wall to help her walk. On further investigation we found she was suffering from starvation. We realised it was impossible for her to go to school.

    This experience really challenged me. It was hard to believe this was western Sydney, Australia, in 2020. How could it be in such a wealthy country?

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/a-girl-of-13-starving-it-s-a-glimpse-into-australia-s-disadvantage-and-how-governments-are-failing-20201111-p56djb.html

  24. Late Riser @ #470 Friday, November 13th, 2020 – 1:22 pm

    Personal peeve.

    Data released by Queensland Courts shows there has been a 246 per cent increase in DVO breaches between July and September, when there were 644 breaches, compared to 261 for the same period last year.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-13/three-people-breach-domestic-violence-orders-371-times-queenslan/12879766
    It is actually an INCREASE of 146%. An increase of 100% used to mean there is now twice as much as before. (The story itself is about 3 men who between them were responsible for 371 of the 644 breaches.)

    Plus one LR!

    Right up there with “there were four times fewer cases of……”. Completely nonsensical.

  28. Complaints against Tudge and Porter not investigated by Morrison because the alleged incidents occurred 3 or so years ago under Malcolm Turnbull’s watch, and presumably he would have considered them. Not Morrison’s problem.

    Complaints against members of the Armed Forces over alleged incidents said to have occurred over 10 years ago, under various previous Prime Ministers, will be vigorously prosecuted by a special Tribunal. Morrison showing his leadership.

    Spot the difference?

  29. When school reopened for term 4, Katlyn* returned to Learning Ground, deathly white, stick thin. The 13-year-old held onto the wall to help her walk. On further investigation we found she was suffering from starvation.

    Thanks for posting this lizzie. An overlooked role for schools is monitoring child welfare. I think about child safety when children aren’t seen regularly. In my primary school years health officers would regularly visit the school. I’m well out of it now, but dental check ups I think were still common a decade ago or so.

  31. Trudy McIntosh (Sky pol reporter)
    @TrudyMcIntosh
    ·
    17m
    Eyes Victoria’s Chief Health Officer Brett Sutton NOT thanked by Chief Scientist Alan Finkel in his contact tracing report – he’s the only chief health officer who isn’t acknowledged- unclear why

  32. Perparim @ #444 Friday, November 13th, 2020 – 12:24 pm

    https://www.9news.com.au/national/coronavirus-nsw-residents-in-sydneys-west-and-north-west-urged-to-get-tested-covid-19-found-in-sewerage/75bccd58-3dba-4ac5-b399-bb3955e21a61

    Coronavirus alert issued for nearly 20,000 Sydney residents after traces of COVID-19 found in sewerage
    By Natalie Oliveri • Journalist
    6:18am Nov 12, 2020

    This relates to an alert issued two days ago. Excellent testing numbers in the last few days, no new cases detected so far, NSW Health remaining on top of their game.

  35. Donald J. Trump

    @realDonaldTrump

    10h

    “REPORT: DOMINION DELETED 2.7 MILLION TRUMP VOTES NATIONWIDE. DATA ANALYSIS FINDS 221,000 PENNSYLVANIA VOTES SWITCHED FROM PRESIDENT TRUMP TO BIDEN. 941,000 TRUMP VOTES DELETED. STATES USING DOMINION VOTING SYSTEMS SWITCHED 435,000 VOTES FROM TRUMP TO BIDEN.”

    [This claim about election fraud is disputed]

  38. United States :

    Coronavirus Cases:
    10,873,936

    Deaths:
    248,585

    – 161,541 new cases and 1,190 new deaths in the United States

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

    Dr Dena Grayson, MD, PhD

    AWFUL NEWS: the US posts 161,541 new #coronavirus cases and 66,606 #COVID19 hospitalizations—the 7th day of the past 9 we have SHATTERED our record for new cases.

    And ZERO from the #SuperSpreader-in-Chief, who is FUELING the spread.

  40. Barney in Tanjung Bunga says: Friday, November 13, 2020 at 12:38 pm
    Shellbell @ #446 Friday, November 13th, 2020 – 9:29 am
    Aussie Aussie Aussie Oi Oi Oi! is easy to remember
    I don’t think there are any words that make me cringe more.

    “So where the bloody hell are you?”

  47. FS
    The woke types might sulk but most people wouldn’t care because unless we are morphing into a taliban state no one would be bothered by it.

  48. ‘Mark Butler stayed on despite producing a suite of climate action policies over six years that failed to excite voters.’

    Does climate action policies ever excite voters though? As one commentator suggested that voters saying they support action on climate change and voting on it are two different thimgs.

    The other thing is most voters are not looking up Labors party policies on climate change. The criticism from the Labor review of Bill Shorten policy platform there were too many policies and most voters don’t have the time or the interest to look up every policy and read them.

    The review suggested the boldness is not the problem but the policy platform needed to be simplified.

    Climate change policies can be seen as technical, dull, and scientific. As Julia Gillard found easy to play the scare campaign on alot harder to sell to the common man or woman.

  49. Political Nightwatchman
    Most people do not vote against climate change but they vote against higher power bills or in the case of mining communities they vote for what they see as job security.

  50. OK, MB, but the standards you walk by, and all that…

    I recall Rudd went to a titties bar a few years ago, and all hell broke loose.

    Society must have changed dramatically since then.

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