Victorian poll, Queensland election, Groom by-election

A good poll result from Labor in Victoria, an even better election result for Labor in Queensland, and only four candidates come forward for the Groom by-election.

The Herald-Sun reported on Monday on a “privately conducted” Victorian state poll by YouGov that showed Labor maintaining a commanding 55-45 lead on two-party preferred, from primary votes of Labor 44%, Coalition 40% and Greens 11%. This compares with 57.3-42.7 at Labor’s landslide win in 2018, when the primary votes were Labor 42.9%, Coalition 35.2% and Greens 10.7%. Personal ratings are good for Daniel Andrews (65% approval and 32% disapproval) and disastrous for Liberal leader Michael O’Brien (26% approval and 53% disapproval).

The poll nonetheless found that 55% thought it fair to hold Daniel Andrews responsible for the second COVID-19 wave, compared with 40% for not fair. Fifty per cent believed Andrews had been honest and transparent about the hotel quarantine failure against 43% for not honest and transparent; 53% said Victoria was heading in the right direction versus 39% who said it is “time for change”. The poll was conducted from October 29 to November from a sample of 1241.

UPDATE: Now a Roy Morgan poll gives Labor a lead of 58.5-41.5, up from 51.5-48.5 a month ago, from primary votes of Labor 45% (up five), Coalition 34.5% (down 5.5) and Greens 11% (up two). Daniel Andrews’ approval rating split is out from 59-41 to 71-29. The poll was conducted by SMS on Monday and Tuesday from a sample of 818.

In real election news, the Electoral Commission of Queensland has been completing preference distributions for the October 31 state election, and while the numbers haven’t been officially published, Antony Green relates that luck has favoured Labor in the final preference distributions in Bundaberg and Nicklin. These seats have been gained from the LNP with respective margins of 11 and 79 votes, pending LNP requests for recounts.

Confirmation of these results would leave Labor with 52 seats in a parliament of 93, a net gain of four compared with the 2017 result. South Brisbane was lost to the Greens (6.0% margin, 9.5% swing), while five were gained from the LNP Bundaberg (by a 0.0% margin with a 4.2% swing), Nicklin (a 0.1% margin and a 5.4% swing), Caloundra (a 2.5% margin and a 5.9% swing), Hervey Bay (a 2.2% margin and an 11.3% swing) and Pumicestone (a 5.1% margin and a 6.0% swing). These are Labor’s first ever wins in Nicklin and Caloundra, both of which are on the Sunshine Coast.

The LNP is duly reduced from 38 seats to 33, unless you count their recovery of Whitsunday after its previous member was expelled from the party mid-term. Their one piece of good news from late counting was that they managed to retain the Gold Coast seat of Currumbin by 310 votes, a 0.3% margin against a swing to Labor of 3.0% (David Crisafulli will be chosen as the party’s new leader unopposed at a party room meeting today). South Brisbane increases the Greens from one to two, with the party having easily its 2017 gain of Maiwar from the LNP, while Katter’s Australian Party and One Nation achieved status quo results of three seats and one respectively, as did independents with Sandy Bolton comfortably retaining Noosa.

Official results are naturally available from the ECQ; the numbers on my live results facility are emphatically not official, in that I have preserved them as they were a week ago before the ECQ removed the indicative two-candidate preferred counts. This means both the booth-level two-candidate preferred results and preference flow by candidate breakdowns are preserved, albeit in not entirely complete form.

Finally, while the attention of most of us has been firmly elsewhere, the process for the November 28 Groom by-election has continued chugging along, with nominations having been declared last Friday. The by-election has attracted a remarkably thin field of four candidates, which somewhat to my surprise includes one from Labor: Chris Meibusch, a community lawyer and unsuccessful candidate for the Toowoomba mayoralty in March. The preselection of LNP candidate Garth Hamilton was related here. The other two candidates are from the Liberal Democrats and Sustainable Australia – as well as there being no One Nation presence, this must be the first time a while that the Greens have left a federal contest uncontested.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

635 comments on “Victorian poll, Queensland election, Groom by-election”

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  3. Talk of Labor “splitting” these days is a pipe dream….especially for the Green supporter…The Labor party has been around a long time and the Big Split with the DLP keeping the Libs in office for 23 years was a lesson not forgotten by Labour (Labor). The Greens are Johnny Come Latelies in terms of political pedigree. What I would hope for is that the Greens would see which party is the enemy of a liberal democracy…………and it ain’t Labor…….

  4. lizzie

    I’ve missed the announcements, but is Scotty setting up a separate National Emergency C’tee of some sort, so that he can appoint more of his pet Liberals into lucrative positions?

    And maintain control of the narrative.

  8. 10 News First
    @10NewsFirst
    Prime Minister Scott Morrison has revealed he is now advising U.S. President-elect Joe Biden on how to deal with #COVID19.

    They can’t be serious.

  10. Who became so famous with a reputation so great,
    That he ran for president and didn’t carry a state?
    Why it was Jubilation T. Cornpone;
    Old “Wouldn’t be sworn – pone.”
    Jubilation T. Cornpone, he made the country wait!

    What’s that about ❓

    Not much but seems to fit in with the general lunatic theme of Planet Earth on Friday 13th.

    God bless us all Tiny Tim. 😇 or 😈

    Goodnight all. 📺💤💤

  12. Listening to the news about who gets the vaccine first, I cannot help but ponder that old conundrum as to whether you point the fire extinguisher at the base of the fire, or at the surrounding flammable material. It might seem intuitively obvious to vaccinate vulnerable people first, but vulnerable people are also made safer if you vaccinate the people most likely to be involved in spreading the virus, thus wiping it out. Paradoxically, these are young, fit and quite likely also acting most irresponsibly.

    Just a thought.

  13. Also, anyone want to venture odds on an infected person from Sydney travelling to Brisbane or Melbourne and destroying that state’s covid free status? Its an interesting challenge.

  14. Covid-19 doesn’t operate the same in the northern hemisphere as we’re used to here. I say that having lived in the USA in Washington State for 18 years. The social conditions are very different. While it’s obvious that end of year celebrations in the northern hemisphere occur in winter not summer, what isn’t as obvious is the general mood during that time. People love to get together in warm enclosed spaces and get very close to each other. If you wanted you could find a welcoming friendly party most evenings and without fail on the weekends during this time. Dinner parties or dance parties or drinking parties are common and just happen. Malls too become just places to visit. And as well as numerous religious celebrations the US also has a 4 day Thanksgiving party at the end of November. It was not unusual to be invited to 2 or even 3 different Thanksgiving dinners when we lived there. In the US we called this time “the holidays” and distinguished that from “summer vacation” which tended to be outdoor oriented like camping or sight seeing.

    Right now in WA state the governor is urging people to forgo their holidays and to spend the time alone but safe. But it just isn’t in the culture of the place. I can’t see it working. The contrast with Australia is going to be stark. So I don’t know what learnings that (I don’t hold the hose) Morrison might have for Biden, but we can only hope Biden’s people are smart enough to find something useful.

  15. No, Scott is pushing “his learnings” in a report to Biden. Bignoting himself.

    Why didn’t Scott call his good mate Trump and tell him how to deal with the pandemic. Lick spittle.

  16. Late Riser

    So I don’t know what learnings that (I don’t hold the hose) Morrison might have for Biden,

    Scrott: “The secret is this Joe. Make sure your state leaders are competent. After that you just sit back and blame them for errors or take credit for success. Easy peasy. Worked a treat for me”.

  17. Prime Minister Scott Morrison has revealed he is now advising U.S. President-elect Joe Biden on how to deal with #COVID19.
    _____
    Yeah, he gave Biden Dan Andrews’ phone number.

  18. CC interesting analogy. Ideally the fire is already out and you apply the retardant to everything, starting with fire fighters, and breath easier when everything is safe.

    But if the fire is raging it will depend on how much vaccine you’ve got. The starting point is that people aren’t inanimate objects. They aren’t “ruined” once they start burning. So if they are “on fire” you focus on putting their fire out. Then you get preventative and apply the extinguisher to the most likely to burn. If you’re overwhelmed, triage rules apply.

  21. LR that observation about people wanting to get together in warm, enclosed spaces, may have also applied to Melbourne in April onwards.

  22. Biden would be aware of Andrews because the U.S Embassy in Melbourne would be reporting back to Washington and despite Trump’s carry on Biden’s people would be getting info from many different sources.

  23. Prime Minister Scott Morrison has revealed he is now advising U.S. President-elect Joe Biden on how to deal with #COVID19.
    —————
    I’m sure Joe Biden will be amused receiving advice from the gormless Australian trumpist who’s only policy was to oppose any measures that impeded the virus’ spread.

  24. Mexicanbeemer

    Biden would be aware of Andrews because the U.S Embassy in Melbourne
    ———
    Is that the Embassy to the People’s Republic of Victoria? Doesn’t the USA have its Embassy in Canberra?

  28. Cud Chewer @ #397 Friday, November 13th, 2020 – 6:10 pm

    LR that observation about people wanting to get together in warm, enclosed spaces, may have also applied to Melbourne in April onwards.

    Perhaps, but to a lesser degree. November/December is the festive season. And it’s generally colder in the US too. (We also lived in Melbourne for 2 years recently.)

  30. Comments are pointing out the effect of different cultures and social habits on virus transmission. I have seen very few references to this in most critiques of the spread. In some cases in victoria I think pollies were nervous about accusations of racism but these were not always relevant.

    When the pandemic is no longer at crisis point no doubt the sociologists will write their theses on it.

  31. A couple of observations here. If you go back over all the data, you’ll see that NSW had 21 days without cases from 22/05 to 11/06. That’s the closest we got to elimination. It was enough for me to relax a little – but not want to go anywhere near Sydney. The next untraceable cases came on 12/06 and 15/06. Again relatively quiet period. Then in the next week or so things went downhill and we had several Victorians and the infamous Crossroads hotel clusterfuck.

    I can’t prove this, but it feels to me that there was already a large pool of infections in Melbourne by this stage (many of them hidden) and of the 5 untraceable infections between 15/06 and 03/07, at least some may have originated from Victorian visitors. The upshot of this is that in an alternate universe where Melbourne had eliminated the virus in May, Sydney may have also followed suit – or at least sputtered along at a very low rate for a few months. Its also clear to me that Sydney closing its border to Victoria on July 6 was already 2 weeks too late. Another mistake was not testing travellers.

    Now, the thing that surprised even me is that in the following few weeks, there were 3 examples of a 20 something from Sydney, going to Newcastle, going on a pub crawl and starting a cluster. If you think about the probabilities and the usual rate of flow of people between Sydney and Newcastle, that’s actually above the odds. Probably just bad luck more than anything, but it shows you just how much the virus loves travel.

    I don’t think the current run of 6 zero case days in Sydney is terribly significant. Its nice. It’ll be even nicer when we get to 16. I might even crack a smile when we get to 26. But its really a case of the further you go, the more the probability of there existing a hidden infection decays. It just decays agonisingly slowly. Its why I get the shits with politicians opening borders and running sports stadiums at full capacity, very prematurely.

  32. A bit of Hyperbole in Scotland! 🙂

    “ON the most Scottish of nights, the most Scottish of nights. But thanks to David Marshall, the most un-Scottish of endings. As the skies opened over Belgrade, the Tartan Army – so many miles away at home – ascended into heaven.”

    After 23 years Scotland defeats Serbia and qualifies for the EUFA Cup. Back in Europe where they belong! Next game against England!!

    https://www.thenational.scot/sport/18868068.serbia-1-scotland-1-scotland-win-5-4-pens-scotland-put-tartan-army-wringer-end-unlike-us/

  34. Lizzie

    Perhaps more relevant than culture is the effect of precarious work. People who are struggling are more likely to go to work sick (and often its a baked in habit) and less likely to want to get tested and thus have to take time off. That and the fact that Victoria has more than its share of manufacturing probably is important. You’re right though, lots of PhDs in this.

  40. CC

    In the US state of WA we had a saying, there’s no such thing as bad weather, only bad equipment. I can tell you stories of pitch darkness at 7am trying to get a solid 1/4 inch thick sheet of ice off my car windscreen so I can drive to work. Garden hoses are frozen. So is the ground you’re standing on. Not fun. And WA on the Pacific Coast is mild by comparison with those states further east. You huddle. It’s nice. 🙂

  41. Mexicanbeemer says:
    Friday, November 13, 2020 at 7:12 pm
    Biden would be aware of Andrews because the U.S Embassy in Melbourne would be reporting back to Washington and despite Trump’s carry on Biden’s people would be getting info from many different sources.
    ______________________
    Seriously MB? Next your going to say he called Mark McGowan just after Angela Merkel.

  42. LR

    Yep and in real cold climates they don’t piss around with under-insulated houses like we do. They get serious. Stayed with a friend in Ottawa. I think it was about -12C outside. Toasty warm inside. Decent insulation.

  43. Oh and I’ve got to relate this story.

    Stayed at a friend-of-a-friend’s farmhouse in upstate New York. This farm came with its own gas well. Yeah, really. One of the downsides is that the water also tasted foul (sulphurous). But with all that gas, you could open some windows, watch the snow falling and jus crank up the furnace. Yeah I know, that wasn’t terribly environmentally friendly.. 🙂

  44. Lars
    I didn’t say Biden would be calling Andrews but he would know how Victoria has managed the virus. One Pfizer executive knew Australia didn’t have a normal flu season so if he knew that then the US Government would know.

  47. Fair enough MB, but you have to appreciate the State Dept would literally get thousands of cables in a week. How many of those even get read would be debatable.

  48. Cud Chewer @ #592 Friday, November 13th, 2020 – 7:54 pm

    LR

    Yep and in real cold climates they don’t piss around with under-insulated houses like we do. They get serious. Stayed with a friend in Ottawa. I think it was about -12C outside. Toasty warm inside. Decent insulation.

    My husband said his uncle, who lived in Canada, told him that just about every residence had central heating.

  49. The reality with Biden is his will be a transitional Presidency. By the time he is 80 (November 2022) he will have either:

    a) Passed away; or
    b) decided not to run again (given he effectively has to start campaigning and raising cash by the mid terms); or
    c) handed over to President Kamala Harris

    The best we can hope for is he stabilises the show and manages US decline gracefully.

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