Ipsos state polling and Groom preselection

The LNP settles on a candidate for the Groom by-election, as what doesn’t kill Gladys Berejiklian and Daniel Andrews only makes them stronger.

Ipsos has made its first entry into the Australian polling game since the 2019 election (at which it was probably the best performer of the lot, at least to the extent that it was the only one to accurately read the Labor primary vote), courtesy of New South Wales and Victorian state polls for Nine Newspapers. Unhappily though, neither features results on voting intention, though the question was clearly asked because responses are broken down by party support. In turn:

• Further evidence that Gladys Berejiklian’s travails have harmed her not at all in the view of the public, with the poll in the Sydney Morning Herald showing her with 64% approval and 16% disapproval. This compares with 22% approval and 25% disapproval for Labor’s Jodi McKay, who evidently remains a largely unknown quantity, with Berejiklian leading McKay 58-19 as preferred premier. Interestingly and unusually, opinion was also gauged on all-too-high-profile Nationals leader John Barilaro, who recorded 18% approval and 35% disapproval. Thirty-six per cent believed Berejiklian knew either a great deal or a fair amount about Daryl Maguire’s “alleged corrupt activitity”, with the same amount thinking she knew “not very much”, and 11% of trusting souls that she knew nothing at all. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Friday by phone (which I believe means live interviews, based on Ipsos’s past form) from a sample of 863.

• In Victoria, and courtesy of The Age, Ipsos records 52% approval for Daniel Andrews and 33% disapproval. Still more strikingly, Liberal leader Michael O’Brien records what may prove to be terminal ratings of 15% approval and 39% disapproval, with Andrews leading scarcely less handily than Berejiklian as preferred premier at 53-18. The poll also records 49% satisfaction and 40% dissatisfaction with the state government’s handling of the pandemic, compared with 16% and 44% for the state opposition (not featured, but probably related: opinion on the response of the news media). The state’s chief health officer, Brett Sutton, has 57% approval and 20% disapproval. The poll also finds 50% attribute responsibility for the state’s outbreak to the state government hotel quarantine program and 40% to individuals not taking the risk seriously enough, and 72% support for compulsory mask wearing, 61% for bans on regional travel and 56% for the newly relaxed 25 kilometre travel restriction. This poll was conducted Monday to Wednesday and has a sample of 858; oddly, this one was conducted online rather than by phone.

In other news, the Queensland Liberal National Party’s preselection for the November 28 federal by-election in Groom, which was the subject of my previous post on federal matters, was won by mining engineer Garth Hamilton. Party hardheads are presumably relieved that arch-conservative David van Gend was headed off in the final round of the count, by what the Toowoomba Chronicle reports was a “very close” result, although Hamilton too is seen as part of the right. Van Gend led after leading in the first round thanks to “an automatic 100 votes from the Christian lobby”, according to an LNP source quoted by the Chronicle, from a total of 290 attendees. Support then consolidated behind Hamilton with the elimination in turn of Daniel Cassidy, Andrew Meara, Sara Hales, Rebecca Vonhoff and Bryce Camm.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,164 comments on “Ipsos state polling and Groom preselection”

Comments Page 39 of 44
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  1. In Rexology…
    If Labor don’t adapt with the times they WILL be history.

    Indubitably, this is correct. Labor have to defeat both the Greens and their alter-egos, the LNP. This is the imperative of the times.

  2. Just four trick or treaters so far and another storm on the way.

    I think I’m about to find out if a Milky Way is a treat you can enjoy between meals without spoiling your appetite

  3. Regardless of who starts the Labor-Greens argy bargy. It is way past any kind of usefulness. It clogs the place up like one of those fat bombs in the London sewers. This used to be my first port of call call every morning. Very sad, when the country is being run by a gang of thieves and blackguards!

  4. pritu

    It’s like being woken every morning by a lecture on why you shouldn’t have breakfast because you committed some sort of sin the day before. Every morning. All it breeds is resentment.

  8. lizzie,

    While quite sympathetic to much of what the Greens campaign for, I’ve never really understood their absolute need to steamroll anyone for having a legitimate difference of opinion to them. There are aspects of their approach to the Eastern Maar Aboriginal Corporation that make me more than a little uncomfortable.

  9. Late Riser

    The hailstones (hail boulders?) seem to be huge. I remember how much damage was caused down here by normal sized hail. What a day to have an election!

  12. Bugler @ #1906 Saturday, October 31st, 2020 – 4:43 pm

    lizzie,

    While quite sympathetic to much of what the Greens campaign for, I’ve never really understood their absolute need to steamroll anyone for having a legitimate difference of opinion to them. There are aspects of their approach to the Eastern Maar Aboriginal Corporation that make me more than a little uncomfortable.

    Exactly. In their eyes, Senators Pat Dodson and Malandirri McCarthy are sellouts! That’s just a disgusting attitude to take about Indigenous Australians that have done more to advance the cause of Indigenous Reconciliation than any Greens Indigenous Senator will ever do!

  13. lizzie,

    Thankfully the hail has been lessening. It’s a typical sub-tropical storm now. Sunshine streaming from the west under the clouds, steady fat rain drops, stiff cool swirling breezes, ozone. Invigorating. Now the worst has passed.

  15. @MikeFitzAU
    ·
    1h

    Large retiree population in my coastal area. Medical staff tell me the nursing homes have many 70-year-olds who are now convinced that their children are about to lose 20% of their inheritance.

    Palmer is a liar.

  16. pritu @ #1903 Saturday, October 31st, 2020 – 4:26 pm

    Regardless of who starts the Labor-Greens argy bargy. It is way past any kind of usefulness. It clogs the place up like one of those fat bombs in the London sewers. This used to be my first port of call call every morning. Very sad, when the country is being run by a gang of thieves and blackguards!

    To some people, actually fixing the existential threats we are facing is far less important than ensuring the Greens don’t ever get into a position to do so 🙁

  17. Bugler @ #1914 Saturday, October 31st, 2020 – 4:43 pm

    lizzie,

    While quite sympathetic to much of what the Greens campaign for, I’ve never really understood their absolute need to steamroll anyone for having a legitimate difference of opinion to them. There are aspects of their approach to the Eastern Maar Aboriginal Corporation that make me more than a little uncomfortable.

    Yes, I think they’ve jumped the shark on that. Anyone who takes the time to read beyond the headlines might be wiser to the issue.

  18. lizzie,

    I thought the 7:30 report on it was pretty reasonable. Most media have at least been reporting that there is disagreement within the traditional owners on the issue. However, I’m hesitant to stick my nose in on the issue as I don’t know anyone directly affected and what it means to them. I can’t imagine the broader Victorian Aboriginal community are particularly thrilled about attempts to halt progression of the treaty over this, though.

  20. Bugler

    The worrying thing about the over dramatics in that matter is that it will undermine future relationships with governments.

    If you’ve gone to the trouble of consulting with the acknowledged organisation/s, taken on board their concerns and reacted appropriately, only to STILL have the backlash you were trying to avoid, the temptation in the future is to do away with the consultation part – it only caused extra delays and expense without any real benefits.

    I’m quite genuinely concerned about Lidia Thorpe. She appears to over dramatise issues, and take on an importance she doesn’t have. She has undermined those who put the Uluru statement together – because apparently the statement (arrived at via consensus from Aboriginal groups across the nation, a huge task in itself ) doesn’t align with her personal views. She’s now doing the same thing with the trees issue.

    In the first case, she seems to have changed Green policy to suit her own agendas. In the second, she is trashing a process which needs to be respected if Aboriginal groups are to have a real say in future decision making.

    A future Liberal government – and there will be one someday in Victoria – will use the present fracas as a reason to get rid of the current legislation.

  24. SA are the weakest link in Australian cricket. Pathetic district sides and a awful state team – should be playing Sydney grade cricket. Spineless SACA.

  25. Zoomster,

    Perhaps there’s a reason the voters of Northcote didn’t feel the need to re-elect her.

    To me it just comes across as bad politics as well. If the Victorian Government calls her bluff and calls a review, it likely won’t go the way she wants. There are also only so many times you can go against the consensus view before being called out as someone who consistently breaks that consensus for their own political gain.

  27. I’m sure there is a reason, but I’ve completely and utterly lost interest in cricket. I once knew the makeup of all of the Sheffield Shield teams, would watch one dayers basically from start to end and used to watch tests from England to 3am on workdays. Now I couldn’t tell you who is in the Australian team, let alone the captain. My theories are the fact that it was on all the time, that the Australian teams were (are?) full of boors, Indian bookmakers, the fall of the West Indies, the fact that park players made test appearances and were never seen again. Who knows? Not me. I can say that from a reasonably close up view (he lives in my area), Dave Warner is an absolute deadshit. And so is his wife. But I don’t think that’s a secret. Tassie still got a side in the Shield?

  29. Roy Orbison @ #1933 Saturday, October 31st, 2020 – 5:16 pm

    I’m sure there is a reason, but I’ve completely and utterly lost interest in cricket. I once knew the makeup of all of the Sheffield Shield teams, would watch one dayers basically from start to end and used to watch tests from England to 3am on workdays. Now I couldn’t tell you who is in the Australian team, let alone the captain. My theories are the fact that it was on all the time, that the Australian teams were (are?) full of boors, Indian bookmakers, the fall of the West Indies, the fact that park players made test appearances and were never seen again. Who knows? Not me. I can say that from a reasonably close up view (he lives in my area), Dave Warner is an absolute deadshit. And so is his wife. But I don’t think that’s a secret. Tassie still got a side in the Shield?

    There’s way too much international cricket I think. The chase for the big dollar.

    I love state cricket. Very happy it’s broadcast a lot more now.

  31. Firefox says:
    Saturday, October 31, 2020 at 3:48 pm

    the establishment group….

    There is no sport quite so Establishment as trying to disable, discredit and defeat working people…..the pursuit of the Greens all day/every day. The Greens deliver Establishment values by the truckload. The next most Establishment trick is to condescend to those whom they seek to destroy. Fuck the Greens.

  32. Late Riser,

    Actually, the last cricket I watched, obviously not that carefully, because I’m not really sure if it was a 20/20 or a one dayer, was the World Cup. No, had to be 20/20, it was all over in a couple of hours. Yes it was pretty good and, as a first time viewer, I was very impressed by the skills. The other miracle was that it didn’t turn into the biggest Covid spreader in the world. Very, very lucky.

    Pretty sad in one way that it was the last cricket I have seen or even read about.

  33. No point in having a semi-judicial enquiry when you have Peta already on the job.

    Sky News Australia
    @SkyNewsAust
    ·
    Oct 29
    Sky News host Peta Credlin says her upcoming documentary on the failures of hotel quarantine will expose the Victorian government’s political cover-up and the “horrific” decisions taken by
    @DanielAndrewsMP
    .

  34. @SophiaMcGrane
    ·
    3m
    I’ve done quite a bit of handing out ‘how to vote cards’ in my time & true story, it’s always the Lib volunteers who pick a fight.. last Fed election a coupla Lib volunteers said some really inappropriate things re Bob Hawke the day after he died

  35. BK @ #1918 Saturday, October 31st, 2020 – 5:05 pm

    Rex
    SA’s cunning plan is going nicely. Vics now at 0/313.

    Captain to wicket keeper. My Lord I think we will spring the trap now – Baldrick will be using his extreme long run so stand well back for the next few overs.

    Edmund: Ah, yes — a drawback. Yes… Perhaps we need something a little more cunning.

    Baldrick: I have a cunning plan.

    Edmund: Yes, perhaps, but I think I may have a more cunning one.

    Baldrick: Well, mine’s pretty cunning, My Lord.

    Edmund: Yes, but not cunning enough, I imagine.

    Baldrick: Well, that depends how cunning you mean, My Lord.

    Edmund: Well, pretty damn cunning. How cunning do you think I mean?

    Baldrick: Well, mine’s quite cunning, My Lord.

    Edmund: (fed up) Alright, then, let’s hear it! Let’s hear what’s so damn cunning!

    Baldrick: Right, well, first of all, you get him to come with you–

    Edmund: Oh yes, very cunning. Brilliantly cunning. I ask
    him to come with me and then…then stab him, perhaps. How cunning can you get?

    *************************************************

    Meanwhile the WBBL proceeds apace. Excellent sport but unfortunately few spectators.

    Goodnight all..

  36. Labor and it’s policies are not the issue, greens and LNP AND MEDIA are the problem.

    The fact that greens are not attacking the Government on how billionaires got richer during this recession and pandemic.

    The fact the Greens didn’t say anything when Scott Morrison turned body round and didn’t face Albo during question time.

    You are the problem !

  37. lizzie,

    The hailstones (hail boulders?) seem to be huge. I remember how much damage was caused down here by normal sized hail. What a day to have an election!

    A great example of why early voting should be encouraged and become the “new normal”.
    (Fortunately it has been due to COVID-19.)

    Unfortunately, storms like these are also becoming the “new normal”.

  38. Dr. Eric Cervini
    @ericcervini
    author and historian

    I flew down to Texas to help with the Biden/Harris bus tour, intended to drum up enthusiasm at polling locations. Instead, I ended up spending the afternoon calling 911. 1/
    See all these pickup trucks with Trump flags? They were sitting along I-35, waiting to ambush the Biden/Harris campaign bus as it traveled from San Antonio to Austin. 2/
    These Trump supporters, many of whom were armed, surrounded the bus on the interstate and attempted to drive it off the road. They outnumbered police 50-1, and they ended up hitting a staffer’s car. 3/
    The police refused to help. When I flagged down one officer, he said his hands were tied: “not my jurisdiction.” He was wearing a blue stripe bandana. 4/
    Understandably, though nobody was hurt, the rest of the tour was cancelled. And as a historian who studied the rise of the Third Reich, I can tell you: this is how a democracy dies. 5/
    While Germany still had elections and Hitler was merely a disgraced politician, his militia of Brownshirts interrupted his opponents’ political meetings and incited violence on the streets. You know what happened next. 6/
    We don’t know what Trump’s supporters (or Russia) have planned for Tuesday. We don’t know what kind of intimidation and suppression will inevitably occur. 7/
    But we can be prepared. In the next four days, we can create such a landslide that their efforts are futile, sending a message that Nazi tactics have no place in America.

  39. Meanwhile the WBBL proceeds apace. Excellent sport but unfortunately few spectators.

    We’re watching it on TV. The second match is rained out, but the replay of last year’s final is most entertaining.

  42. The videos included claims that Hassan, who had posted pictures with multiple politicians including Andrews on his social media profiles, was paid to pretend he had contracted Covid-19.

    Fernandez claimed he planned to lodge freedom of information requests to hospitals to prove Hassan was never admitted and said the “crisis acting” was part of an Andrews campaign of brainwashing.

    He also claimed Hassan had likely associated with politicians who were paedophiles.

    Fernandez claims Facebook warned him his account would be restricted for posting misinformation to his page, which he also uses to promote cryptocurrency opportunities and sell shungite, a crystal which he claims prevents the effects of 5G.

    …Hassan told Guardian Australia it was perverse that media interviews designed to inform the community about Covid-19 were instead used to further conspiracies.

    “I’m happy the apology has come about, I just want these fellas to learn about their mistakes, and learn you can be held to account for what you say. I forgive them, but they need to make sure they don’t repeat it for someone else.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/oct/31/conspiracy-theorists-forced-to-apologise-for-calling-victorian-youth-leader-a-covid-crisis-actor

  43. Zerlo @ #1936 Saturday, October 31st, 2020 – 5:37 pm

    Labor and it’s policies are not the issue, greens and LNP AND MEDIA are the problem.

    The fact that greens are not attacking the Government on how billionaires got richer during this recession and pandemic.

    The fact the Greens didn’t say anything when Scott Morrison turned body round and didn’t face Albo during question time.

    You are the problem !

    Labor thinking the Greens are the problem … is the problem 🙁

  46. Harris and Pucovski on track to break any wicket partnership for Victoria , their currently on 0/386, need 4 more to equal.

  48. It’s official. Australia, Victoria in particular, is a ‘dystopian nightmare’. Well according to Fox News talking head Laura Ingraham. It was confirmed to be so by her f’wit guest , a Gideon Rozner from the IPA 😆 . Australia in good company though, a couple of days back she was warning her viewers of the covid-19 nightmare that is NZ.

  50. I think Donuts are those ghastly sweet pastries with icing and hundreds and thousands.
    Doughnuts, OTOH, are solid lumps of deep fried yeasty dough, with jam inside & rolled in caster sugar.

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