Ipsos has made its first entry into the Australian polling game since the 2019 election (at which it was probably the best performer of the lot, at least to the extent that it was the only one to accurately read the Labor primary vote), courtesy of New South Wales and Victorian state polls for Nine Newspapers. Unhappily though, neither features results on voting intention, though the question was clearly asked because responses are broken down by party support. In turn:
• Further evidence that Gladys Berejiklian’s travails have harmed her not at all in the view of the public, with the poll in the Sydney Morning Herald showing her with 64% approval and 16% disapproval. This compares with 22% approval and 25% disapproval for Labor’s Jodi McKay, who evidently remains a largely unknown quantity, with Berejiklian leading McKay 58-19 as preferred premier. Interestingly and unusually, opinion was also gauged on all-too-high-profile Nationals leader John Barilaro, who recorded 18% approval and 35% disapproval. Thirty-six per cent believed Berejiklian knew either a great deal or a fair amount about Daryl Maguire’s “alleged corrupt activitity”, with the same amount thinking she knew “not very much”, and 11% of trusting souls that she knew nothing at all. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Friday by phone (which I believe means live interviews, based on Ipsos’s past form) from a sample of 863.
• In Victoria, and courtesy of The Age, Ipsos records 52% approval for Daniel Andrews and 33% disapproval. Still more strikingly, Liberal leader Michael O’Brien records what may prove to be terminal ratings of 15% approval and 39% disapproval, with Andrews leading scarcely less handily than Berejiklian as preferred premier at 53-18. The poll also records 49% satisfaction and 40% dissatisfaction with the state government’s handling of the pandemic, compared with 16% and 44% for the state opposition (not featured, but probably related: opinion on the response of the news media). The state’s chief health officer, Brett Sutton, has 57% approval and 20% disapproval. The poll also finds 50% attribute responsibility for the state’s outbreak to the state government hotel quarantine program and 40% to individuals not taking the risk seriously enough, and 72% support for compulsory mask wearing, 61% for bans on regional travel and 56% for the newly relaxed 25 kilometre travel restriction. This poll was conducted Monday to Wednesday and has a sample of 858; oddly, this one was conducted online rather than by phone.
In other news, the Queensland Liberal National Party’s preselection for the November 28 federal by-election in Groom, which was the subject of my previous post on federal matters, was won by mining engineer Garth Hamilton. Party hardheads are presumably relieved that arch-conservative David van Gend was headed off in the final round of the count, by what the Toowoomba Chronicle reports was a “very close” result, although Hamilton too is seen as part of the right. Van Gend led after leading in the first round thanks to “an automatic 100 votes from the Christian lobby”, according to an LNP source quoted by the Chronicle, from a total of 290 attendees. Support then consolidated behind Hamilton with the elimination in turn of Daniel Cassidy, Andrew Meara, Sara Hales, Rebecca Vonhoff and Bryce Camm.
Why does Albo want Holgate out before the investigation has reported …?
Firefox @ #1840 Saturday, October 31st, 2020 – 12:17 pm
My biggest problem with their contnual whining is that they make it appear that all Labor people are opposed the the Greens, instead of just one faction of Labor being opposed.
I am a Labor supporter, and would be happy to see Labor in an alliance with the Greens, because even though I am not a fan of the Greens, I am increasingly of the opinion that this may be Labor’s only path back to government.
Australia is so fortunate that the response to the pandemic was handled by the Premiers and Chief Ministers – not by Morrison and his media cheer squad.
Britain is facing a catastrophe as it heads into winter and Boris Johnson seems paralysed in dealing effectively with the situation. There is speculation of a nationwide lockdown to address the crisis.
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-54712917
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-54723962
Player One @ #1858 Saturday, October 31st, 2020 – 12:47 pm
A Labor-Green alliance in the eastern states is unworkable given Labors membership of the fossil fuel cartel.
The MSM will never give credit for what Andrews and Sutton have done for Victoria.
Rex
The deeper problem facing any formal alliance or merger between the ALP and Greens is the 15% to 20% of each party’s voters that do not preference the other party.
Rex Douglas @ #1852 Saturday, October 31st, 2020 – 12:51 pm
If this is the case, then Labor and the Greens both need to step up their level of maturity. They are both in danger of being left behind by events.
Trump reprises lunge to the line. But this isn’t 2016
Jacob Greber
Washington | The plywood is going up.
Property managers across the US capital are boarding up shopfronts, buckling down for what’s to come next week.
The Australian Financial Review’s office building two blocks from the White House has had its windows blacked out at street level in anticipation of civil unrest after November 3.
As the world assumes the brace position – whether its voters, allies or investors – everyone is cognizant of the fact Donald Trump can still pull this off, even if the hard evidence suggests otherwise.
Polls have narrowed a touch, feeding the narrative that the race is closer than it seems, but they’re still materially better off for Biden than they were for Hilary Clinton’s doomed campaign at this point in the race.
With four days to go, Biden’s national lead is 7.8 percentage points, according to the RealClearPolitics average of polls. Granted, that’s narrower than the 10 point lead he had three weeks ago.
But it’s vastly better than Clinton’s lead, which, according to the RCP average, was just 1.8 points. She ended the race nudging that up to just above 3 points by election day.
Trump is flooding the zone with rallies and in the next three days has scheduled an astonishing 12 appearances.
He’s planning to end the rush to the line with an event at midnight on Monday in Grand Rapids, Michigan, which is where he finished his campaign four years ago.
The reason? Trump is a deeply superstitious man and he’s hoping to do what many regard as the impossible; pull off two against-the-odds victories in a row.
More –
https://www.afr.com/world/north-america/trump-reprises-lunge-to-the-line-but-this-isn-t-2016-20201031-p56abg
Mexicanbeemer @ #1862 Saturday, October 31st, 2020 – 12:55 pm
The only solution is for Labor to abandon their association with the fossil fuel unions and purge their party of climate denier puppets.
Rex
To do that will see the ALP surrender any chance of holding any mining based electorate.
My experience of former Labor supporter disillusionment was when helping Jason Yan-set Li in Bennelong . So often it was the asylum seeker issue that moved them to the Greens and no amount of saying how much worse the LNP are persuaded them .
I too vote 1. Labor 2. Greens and LNP last. Am of the ‘keep the bastards honest’ mindset and remember how impressed I was when Don Chipp came out with that statement. John Hatton and Peter Andre were excellent Independents.
Madame Tussauds in Berlin dumps Trump
Reuters
The waxwork museum Madame Tussauds in Berlin loaded its effigy of TV star-turned Republican president Donald Trump into a dumpster on Friday, a move apparently intended to reflect its expectations of next Tuesday’s presidential election.
In what seemed a further calculated insult, the statue of his predecessor and nemesis Barack Obama, who counted Germany’s Chancellor Angela Merkel among his closest allies, remained in place, beaming and besuited.
https://www.afr.com/world/north-america/biden-holds-battleground-polling-lead-20201030-p56a7r
Rex Douglas @ #1857 Saturday, October 31st, 2020 – 12:58 pm
Labor doesn’t need to abandon those unions. It just needs to stop being so afraid to point out the reality to them. About 80% of Australia now “gets it”, so those union members probably can too.
from the US thread
https://www.palmerreport.com/analysis/federal-judge-rules-donald-trumps-tweets-incited-violence/33566/
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/judge-cites-trump-tweets-restricting-feds-protests-73932793
Player One says:
Saturday, October 31, 2020 at 11:32 am
Jeez, the anti-Green synchronized dirge here on PB becomes tedious at times. And I’m not even a Green.
Anyone would think there was an election on or something
Firefox starts the day by posting anti Labor trite. Unfortunately he simple posts the Green twitter feeds.
On a lighter note, WBBL!
frednk says:
Saturday, October 31, 2020 at 1:20 pm
Player One says:
Saturday, October 31, 2020 at 11:32 am
Jeez, the anti-Green synchronized dirge here on PB becomes tedious at times. And I’m not even a Green.
Anyone would think there was an election on or something
Firefox starts the day by posting anti Labor trite. Unfortunately he simple posts the Green twitter feeds.
_____________________________________
I’m no fan of the Greens on this forum but the fact is that it goes both ways on an endless loop. And it is utterly boring.
Greens-Labor Wars.
As a start, how about acknowledging that neither party is perfect. Assuming a common key goal is to unseat the LNP at the next federal election, how about working together here on solutions and take them to your respective branches.
Alternatively, you can both stick to the Murdoch press script.
“I don’t dislike the Greens and all they stand for.
I wish they stood up for the environment a lot more than they do, and I wish that they would play a more constructive role in politics.
This is the road to success, as the NZ Greens have demonstrated.
I can and do criticise Labor, as do most of the Labor followers here – it is striking that you rarely see a Green supporter here criticise the Greens.
This is one of the problems the party has. Its members often appear overly partisan, which – of course – closes the door to improvement.
Every now and then this results in a pretty public meltdown by disaffected Greens.”
***
Well you are certainly not conveying that in your posts here.
No party stands up for the environment more than the Greens do.
Just because the Greens do not capitulate to the right does not mean we do not play a constructive role in politics. Far from it.
The NZ Greens have indeed had great success in power sharing, just as the Australian Greens have too.
As I have said before, some people on this blog have zero self-awareness. Posts from those I mentioned over a long period of time reveal them to be partisan Laborites who have been well and truly politically blinded by the light on the hill. That’s ok, you’re allowed to be passionate supporters of your party, but at least be honest about it. I am! I’m a massive lefty Green and I don’t shy away from that. I’m proud of the party I support.
It wasn’t always that way though. You know, there are only two parties who have had the privilege of receiving my first preference. Yes, I used to be a Laborite too! That is until I realised the party no longer represented me.
I’m not sure Laborites should be bringing up public meltdowns given what they put everyone else through from 2010-13. And I really don’t think you lot who are stuck in the mud and entrenched in your ways are in any position to be giving out lectures on being adaptable and making improvements to the way you do things either.
I wish posters here would stop referring to the “Bushfire crisis” and just content themselves with an ordinary “bushfire crisis”.
Firefox
As I said, you’re incapable – as so many Greens posters here appear to be – of criticising the Greens.
I don’t see why you think that’s a virtue.
Any Qld exit polls yet?
The real reason Labor hacks are so virulent toward the Greens is because recognising the Greens is recognising the reality that it is increasingly difficult for Labor to command majority Government.
In the ACT and Tassie Labor cannot form a Government without the Greens, it’s quite likely that this will be the case in at least another couple of jurisdictions in the next decade.
I think Rex is wrong about the fossil fuels bit – just be honest about the policy differences, you’d resolve more by getting it all out in the open. As oakeshott said it would be beautiful in its ugliness!!
Lars
Given that the reverse is also true, how does that explain the Greens animosity towards Labor?
“As I said, you’re incapable – as so many Greens posters here appear to be – of criticising the Greens.”
***
Well I shan’t be criticising the Greens just to make you feel better about supporting Labor, that’s for sure.
There’s more than enough criticism of the Greens on this blog from the right as it is! The unhinged ranting never stops! How much more do you want? lol
zoomster, I think the Greens have luxury of being a new party coming out of a movement. So the Greens haven’t needed to do compromise.
I don’t think the Greens hate Labor , more that the Greens see themselves as supplanting Labor in time because Labor has lost any genuine policy rationale.
The “Third Way” looked good at the time – but in truth in neutered most of the policy ballast underpinning social democratic parties. Its unsurprising since the 3rd way social democratic parties like those in the UK and Australia and even the US have struggled.
The greens are still at the size & stage where they can have the illusion of purity. In the unfortunate event of their expanding, that will eventually change.
I was wondering where Laura Tingle had got to.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-31/morrison-government-transparency-anz-climate-change/12832786
Late Riser @ #1877 Saturday, October 31st, 2020 – 2:38 pm
I gather she’s been unwell. She’s not been on Late Night Live for a couple of weeks.
BSA
As has already been pointed out, this is what happened in Germany. The realists won!
Firefox
Fair enough. I suppose it takes a fair bit of resilience and a sense of security to be able to criticise something you’re invested in. I know the Labor party will adapt and survive, because it has for generations. The Greens don’t have that certainty.
Personally, a party where you can’t have robust debates doesn’t attract me. It is only through disagreement that issues can be thoroughly ironed out. There is no one right or wrong answer – there are an infinite array of possible actions, and each has its pluses and minuses. Arriving at an agreed position on anything will thus always involve compromise and leave some on the outer.
To me, that seems like a Good Thing, but if you prefer everyone nodding and agreeing on every point, then that’s fine.
In Australia, in polities where a form of proportional representation applies, no one can attain a majority.
BSA
I’m also old enough to remember when the Greens policy was to refuse large donations from individuals. That changed when an individual offered them a large donation.
One of the most interesting
ABC programs is Landline. Factual and informative imo and often contradicting political opinion.
I do hope no one draws it to the attention of the management.
rhwombat, hmm, thanks. I notice the odd 2 week gaps in her otherwise regular pieces. I hope she’s managing whatever it is. Thanks again.
Randall Munroe has had enough of the polls, I think.
https://xkcd.com/
Also, I finally bothered to read his fine print.
Many statements from ther Greens seem to be along the lines “Such an such issue is vey important and so and so needs to be done about it and the real problem is that Labor is in cahoots with the government in ignoring it.”
Constructive suggestion to the Greens: “LEAVE LABOR THE F**C OUT OF THE STATEMENT. JUST BE CONTENT WITH SLAGGING OFF AT THE LNP”
Why put pressure on your potential allies by trying to get them to support YOU rather than THE ISSUE?
Rex Douglas @ #1856 Saturday, October 31st, 2020 – 12:43 pm
The 1 new case was rejected by the panel.
DONUT day again !
The Vics giving SA a shellacking in the cricket as well. 🙂
The Vics giving SA a shellacking in the cricket as well.
________
Rubbish! We’re just lulling the Vics into a false sense of superiority.
😆
Zoom, once again your post reveals your prejudiced and misinformed view of the Greens.
Please spare me the passive aggressive lecture on robust debates, it really is a bit rich coming from one of the establishment group thinkers who regularly lashes out in bitterness and anger at the left when the debate isn’t going the way they would like.
Like I said, zero self-awareness.
In Brexit news…
https://news.sky.com/story/brexit-plea-to-avoid-devastating-no-deal-as-uk-car-industry-sees-worst-september-in-25-years-12117498
Interesting to see how climate change is part of his plea to his government.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/oct/30/plant-inspectors-rising-prices-uk-garden-industry-brexit-shock
The optics of trade.
Calls poster prejudiced, then proceeds to describe anyone who disagrees with them as “groupthinkers”. Got it – quality robust debate.
Rex Douglas
DONUT day again !…
———
What the heck is “DONUT” day?
Something to do with Hallowe’en? Or “Groundhog Day”? Or 5th of July?
Bugler
I am often reminded of the typical fire and brimstone preachers – all is punishable sin and there is no forgiveness.
Rakali
Try to relax. It’s just a bit of fun.
Rakali @ #1892 Saturday, October 31st, 2020 – 3:09 pm
It’s a guilty snack to remind yourself of a big fat zero.
Robert says:
Saturday, October 31, 2020 at 12:05 pm
To “Non” ….
This viewpoint ignores the extraordinary accomplishments made by Labor during the 20th century, from the early enactment of aged pensions, to the later establishment of Social Security and uniform taxation, to central banking, universal health insurance, anti-discrimination laws and innumerable other social, political, legal and economic reforms. Labor very literally made modern Australia possible.
The Greens are innately determined to destroy Labor. That was and remains a founding principle for them. The way politics works means this has become institutionalised. The Greens, like the LNP, like ON, like the DLP, like the CPA before it dissolved, are an anti-Labor voice.
The denial of Labor’s role in the development of the country is yet another instalment in the Labor-phobia published by the Greens day after day.
Those who want to understand Labor history and its impact on national self-determination should read the story of the Depression of the 1890s and the strikes on the land and the waterfront that ensued. They should read about the destruction of the unions by colonial authorities and the imprisonment of workers. They should read the history of labour relations in the colonies and recognise the very great changes to industrial rights and adult suffrage wrought by Federation. These changes would not have occurred without Labor. There is no doubt whatsoever about that.
Non stop @ #1904 Saturday, October 31st, 2020 – 4:14 pm
If Labor don’t adapt with the times they WILL be history.
Una Perrson says:
Saturday, October 31, 2020 at 1:31 pm
Greens-Labor Wars.
…….Assuming a common key goal is to unseat the LNP at the next federal election,
This is a mistaken assumption. The prior goal of the Greens is to prevent Labor winning. They could not give a f$$%^ about the election of LNP governments as long as Labor do not govern alone.