Queensland election minus five days

Another small-sample Newspoll seat poll, this one suggesting Jackie Trad has her work cut out for her in South Brisbane.

It turns out The Australian was holding back one last Newspoll marginal seat poll, to go with the Pumiceston, Mundingburra and Mansfield polls covered in this post. This time it’s South Brisbane, where Amy MacMahon of the Greens is created with a 54.5-45.5 lead over Labor’s Jackie Trad, who won by 3.5% in 2017. The primary votes are Greens 39% (34.4% in 2017), Labor 32% (36.0%) and LNP 24% (24.3%).

The two-party result is based on a 60-40 split of preferences from the LNP, who have Labor last on their how-to-vote cards, which is apparently a guesstimate. The only precedent I can think of for which the relevant data is readily available is Melbourne at the 2007 and 2010 federal elections (the Liberals put Adam Bandt behind Labor at later elections), at which the flow of Liberal preferences was upwards of 80%. Annastacia Palaszczuk has a 62-22 lead in the electorate over Deb Frecklington, which perhaps predictably is the widest among the four electorates polled, it being by far the weakest for the LNP.

As with the other seat polls, this was conducted last Tuesday to Thursday from a curiously exact sample of 404, and thus carries a wide theoretical error margin of 5%. It may also be noted that the record of polling in inner-city Labor-Greens contests is patchy at best.

• Elsewhere, the ABC’s state politics reporter, Peter McCutcheon, reckons there is “growing evidence the LNP is giving up on the idea of forming majority government”. This refers to the LNP’s pursuit of a curfew policy that might poach seats from Labor in the target markets in Cairns and Townsville, but will do so at a cost in support in the Brisbane marginals that are must-win from a majority point of view. It is noted that Frecklington’s campaign has made defensive plays in the Gold Coast seat of Currumbin while neglecting most vulnerable seats in Brisbane, Aspley, Mansfield and Redlands. Conversely, a “senior Labor source” quoted in The Australian says the election will be “won and lost” on Townsville, where Labor could “possibly afford to lose one seat, but any more and we’re in trouble”.

Charlie Peel of The Australian reports the LNP are hopeful of winning north Queensland seats where they finished third behind One Nation in 2017, including Mackay, Keppel and Thuringowa. Such results are predicated on a strong flow of preferences from One Nation candidates who stand to be excluded this time, and thus amount to a backfiring of Labor’s abolition of optional preferential voting at the last election. Internal LNP polling is said to show 65% of One Nation voters intend to preference the LNP ahead of Labor, much as they did at the federal election.

• Katter’s Australian Party is hawking a ReachTEL poll that shows 57% support for North Queensland to form a new state, for which the party is pushing for a referendum to be held after the election. The Courier-Mail says “350 voters in the marginal electorate of Mundingburra (were) polled as part of the survey”, leading me to wonder if that was part of the sample or the whole. Also on the KAP front, Robbie Katter says both that his party has not official position on euthanasia, which Labor has put on the agenda by promising reactivate stalled assisted dying laws, but also that he “would find it enormously hard to align with anyone that would ever contemplate pushing that agenda in the next parliament”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

98 comments on “Queensland election minus five days”

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  1. Hard to know what will happen in this election with M. predicting the ALP to do well on the seat rich GC and Paul equally adamant that the LNP will scoop the pools.Wayne is even more confident than Paul of the LNP winning a huge mandate. The ABC journalist Peter McCutcheon has been giving big wraps to the LNP on their vote winning policies like the $300.00 cash back giveaway and the Townsville indigenous youth mandatory fine,curfew and lockup policy. He thinks this could be a vote turner. So I won’t be surprised bat whatever outcome come Saturday night.

  2. If in doubt go with your friendly Uncle History. I have been following elections for 40 years and live in Queensland. Labor should get back with about the same number of seats. Id say this is about a 50% chance.

    LNP might be able to form a minority government if all the cards fall their way e.g. they win Barron River, Keppel and all 3 Townsville seats, and they only lose Pumicestone. This is pretty unlikely, about a 15% chance.

    Or minority Labor (about 30%) or majority LNP (about 5%).

  3. Labor has Currumbin, Pumicestone, Theodore, Burleigh, Coomera and Bonney in the bag. One Nation and Palmer are running dead here on the Coast and the Greens vote is up with Labor’s primary running steady. If Labor can limit the LNP primary here in their heartland to 40% or below the seats will go.

  4. Thanks for the interesting and authoritative predictions M, History and Late riser. The ABCs Peter Mc’s stories do seem a little disingenuous and a touch cowed.

  5. M, I also heard the LNP are on track to win South Brisbane, Inala, Mansfield, Aspley and Gaven.

    It is amazing what you hear people who are supporters of a particular party say don’t you think?

  6. The feel on the ground can be misleading.

    When I used to hand out HTV’s, one election I remember feeling that the booth I was on that day we would win just but, just winning that booth was in excess of the swing needed to gain the seat. Even the other party felt based on the booth that day that a loss was at hand for the sitting member in a big swing. Turned out that we did win the booth (by a handful of votes) but it was one of like 3 booths that swung and swung hard- the rest of the booths did not budge an inch. I was certain from my skewed bubble certain to the extent I would have bet the house on the win.

    The operators in the ALP and LNP will already have a fair idea of who is in and out by now, usually three days before the election they will know all bar a genuine razors edge seat but this is not revealed to the workers on the ground.

  7. I heard from a friend of a friend that people have no fing idea what’s going to happen on Saturday since the majority of votes haven’t even been cast yet and not one of the votes that have been cast has yet been counted.

  8. I wonder how much seat polling the parties do to see how they are travelling in targeted seats? Some of the contributors here seem to have ‘connections’ etc. maybe they can answer my question.

  9. Get on Labor to win Coomera & Theodore. It’s going to be 50/50 contests. Flip a coin cause they are two seats that definitely won’t be called on Saturday night. Both have low profile LNP sitting members with excellent Labor candidates running against them in Chris Johnson and Tracey Bell. Meaghan Scanlon’s odds in Gaven have shortened so the swing is on!

  10. I do not know people who even tell others how they vote.

    Then there is birds of a feather flock together. If you are handing out how to vote cards, then hardened supporters of the party you are representing are going to be chatty to you. You get a false sense as you are in an echo chamber.

    Palaszczuk forming government is pretty much a given when you can raise money to keep people happy as easy as a vote of hands. And just look at Andrews in Victoria. Caused the virus to escape through incompetence and now he is a hero they have reached zero cases for a couple of days.

    There is little accountability these days for politicians unless you start telling voters the reality of the situation. Then you are a bastard.

  11. Negative press

    A Brisbane Times analysis of the 498 commitments the Labor Party made to the state ahead of the last election revealed 45 have not been met and a further five have been superseded.

    https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/queensland/promises-from-2017-the-palaszczuk-government-has-failed-to-deliver-20200922-p55y7e.html

    It’s not “9 out of 10 promises kept”, or “448 kept promises”. The headline is “Promises from 2017 the Palaszczuk government has failed to deliver”. Some are then described.

    Here’s one.

    Last December, the decision was made to go ahead with the 17,000-seat entertainment precinct above Roma Street rail yards, which will also become a new Cross River Rail station. At the time, the Premier said the project would be “put to market” to gauge interest from private sector investors, but no contracts have been awarded and Ms Palaszczuk could not say when construction would begin.

    The article doesn’t provide the information so I’m left to imagine that there might have been significant effort gone into the decision before the decision was made and typically this is how long such big projects take to complete. But maybe not. No explanation is given why contracts haven’t been awarded. Perhaps funding was needed from the federal government. Perhaps the Brisbane City (LNP council) has some issues to resolve. Perhaps covid. Perhaps incompetence. I’m left guessing. What’s important to the journalist is a promise not kept. She finishes her story with a table of promises, with the “failures” at the top with slowly throbbing(?) red crosses. The delivered promises are there too if you spot how to resort the table.

    Am I wrong to be cynical?

  12. I agree LR, Labor seems to be held to a much higher set of standards than the LNP. Look at the 30 million for the land in Sydney. Just about forgotten now. Dan Andrews government hiring a private security company and expecting them to be able to provide security has become a situation where he is treated like a criminal by various news ltd stooges and excoriated daily whereas Gladys and Peter Duttons mistake over ruby princess erased by the media. Deb Freck dining with developers,imagine if this was Jackie Trad. And swap Annastacia with Gladys and guess whether she would get the soft soaping our Glad got from the media.Scomo off Scott free after ill advised Hawaii trip during worst bushfires ever, when others were put on the rack for having dinner during a bushfire emergency.Having media shock troops who follow up every Labor mistake until it’s etched on everybodies memory gives the LNP a huge advantage. But conversely at least at state level it keeps Labor honest knowing they will be pinged by an LNP aligned press for every minor infringement whereas LNP is allowed to do whatever they see fit and get the Media’s support. Getting a rails run off of the Courier Mail didn’t help Candoe very much.

  13. Labor held to a higher standard?

    I do not think so. Why has nothing come about the Queensland sports rorts? A minister overturning the PS recommendations and handing money to labor electorates. Why has nothing come about the multiple secret agreements the government has signed? Like the secret cost to host the AFL. The secret royalty agreement with Adani. The banning of developer donations, something quite undemocratic in itself. The removal of optional preferential voting. The closing down of tertiary educational facilities in disadvantaged areas. The fact that babies in rural Queensland die at higher rates due to cuts in health services. You could go on and on and on.

    But she kept us safe apparently. Seems to me the thing keeping Palaszczuk safe is Deb Frecklington. A thousand things to attack Palaszczuk on and there is nothing.

  14. Have a look in the pages of the Courier, Paul, I’m sure it pushes these issues ad infinitum and surely would put a smile on your dial if anti Labor bile is your cup of tea. Personally I wouldn’t read the CM if it came with free money everyday.

  15. “The banning of developer donations, something quite undemocratic in itself. ”

    @Paul

    Sniff sniff the poor developers sniff sniff they don’t have any huge conflict of interest when they make a donation to a political party sniff sniff. Sniff sniff when they turned up to a LNP fundraiser event they were there just to lobby for a raise in the pension for the most vulnerable sniff sniff. This was never about themselves sniff sniff. How undemocratic is this sniff sniff.

  16. Negative press or responsible journalism?

    Deb Frecklington says Queensland had four consecutive years of the highest unemployment in the nation before the pandemic. Is that correct?

    on October 6 … “When you’ve had four consecutive years of the highest unemployment rate in the nation

    on October 15: “Queensland has had the worst unemployment record in Australia for the last four years thanks to Labor.”

    The verdict: Ms Frecklington is wrong.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-28/fact-check-queensland-unemployment-before-covid-19-coronavirus/12782678

  17. “Why has nothing come about the Queensland sports rorts?”

    The Queensland Audit Office investigated the allegations and concluded:
    “Overall, applications for competitive grants were successful at a mostly consistent rate across electorates for the political parties that represent 96 per cent of the state’s electorates: the Australian Labor Party, Liberal National Party, and Katter’s Australian Party. In these electorates, the success rate ranged between 65 per cent and 68 per cent, with the average of all electorates being 66 per cent.”
    https://www.qao.qld.gov.au/reports-resources/reports-parliament/awarding-sports-grants#h3-9

  18. Need some more polling! Presumably YouGov is out there doing a Tuesday to Thursday sweep, to be revealed on Friday. But there must be something else! I think the ALP has done just a little bit worse in the campaign over the last few days, probably not enough though to have any material impact.

  19. Paul has been strongly criticising the government throughout the last few weeks of this thread which is his right. I would like to ask though what policies of Deb and the LNP he particularly likes. Is it the $300.00 rego cash splash or the 33 billion Bruce highway pledge or the indigenous curfew, or rolling back of abortion reforms, or is it cutting spending to try and achieve a surplus in 3 or 4 years. It seems to me Paul it’s extreme dislike if the ALP rather than the policies of the LNP that motivate your contributions but I might be wrong. I would love to see you defend and explain DFs policies rather than constantly cherry pick what you reckon are Labor’s shortcomings.

  20. Wow Princeplanet can you point me out this apparently racist policy of the LNP applying a curfew to Aboriginal people only?

    My vote will go on performance of the sitting government. They are the ones who have shown how competent or in the case of the current government incompetent they are. The current opposition have yet to show how competent they will be, and it is easy to vote them out should they not perfom, but since the current government are so incompetent you vote them out first, not reward them. Most election promises always come with an * for the winning government to weasel out of. You would be a fool to think that any big spending promises will actually come to fruition when there is no money. However this Labor government have shown they will be fiscally irresponsible when it comes to spending and money in general. Because they have no responsibility for the money. It is either borrowed or it comes from the federal government. In fact the federal government should be seriously looking at cutting state funding given their own fiscal irresponsibility.

    In fact getting rid of the easy money would solve many problems in Australia.

    I feel Labor have lost votes of some degree in the past fortnight. Whether they get a majority or minority government is up in the air.

  21. “Paul has been strongly criticising the government throughout the last few weeks of this thread which is his right. I would like to ask though what policies of Deb and the LNP he particularly likes. Is it the $300.00 rego cash splash or the 33 billion Bruce highway pledge or the indigenous curfew, or rolling back of abortion reforms, or is it cutting spending to try and achieve a surplus in 3 or 4 years. It seems to me Paul it’s extreme dislike if the ALP rather than the policies of the LNP that motivate your contributions but I might be wrong. I would love to see you defend and explain DFs policies rather than constantly cherry pick what you reckon are Labor’s shortcomings.”

    @PrincePlanet

    Interestingly Professor Anne Tiernan who is Dean for the Griffith Business School was speaking on the ABC Queensland election podcast. She made an interesting point she saw the LNP launch and said their policy work was pretty average. Very low key, small target, not much of an alternative economic vision. She suggested the reason behind that is the National party section of the LNP doesn’t do much in terms of policy work. It tends to avoid that.

  22. The world would be a much better place for everyone if we turfed out incompetent and corrupt governments of all persuasions in alternating elections until politicians finally got the message that we had had enough of their bullshit.

    What we get instead is this intense partisan cheerleading whereby any and all bullshit is forgivable and excusable simply on the basis the other guy is alleged to be worse, which for the vast bulk of the public simply translates into “they’re all just as bad as each other”. The consequence of this associated apathy is that all we end up doing is de facto defending and enabling even more incompetence and corruption.

    “A contest of ideas and policies” my arse. What planet does that happen on because it sure ain’t this one.

  23. Late Riser @ #75 Wednesday, October 28th, 2020 – 10:03 am

    Frecklington ‘would have opened border months ago’

    NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian saying she’s in regular contact with her and that Ms Frecklington “would have opened the borders months ago” if she had been Queensland Premier.

    https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/queensland/poll-call-frecklington-cops-friendly-fire-on-borders-ahead-of-debate-20201028-p569ac.html
    This has to be tough for Frecklington.

    Frecklington’s response, reported ~25 minutes ago:

    “That’s for Gladys’s opinion and what I have said is that they shouldn’t be closed for a day longer than they need to be,” Ms Frecklington said.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-28/qld-lnp-leader-deb-freckington-nsw-premier-opening-borders/12819658
    Which of course side-steps the question of how long they need to be.

    But with friends like Gladys, Deb must be a little frustrated.

  24. @AngoraFish

    “A contest of ideas and policies” my arse. What planet does that happen on because it sure ain’t this one.”

    The problem is with your point is your cynicism of ‘A contest of ideas and policies’, gets thwarted by your comment ‘if we turfed out incompetent and corrupt governments of all persuasions’. The same cynicism you have that a battle of ideas will ever take place, you have for governments as all corrupt.

    I have seen alot of people like you in audience members on Q and A. Where they complain about all politicians with a sense of cynicism but never state what they want done to be improved.

    Late Riser is correct Paul was trashing everything Labor did like Tony Abbott. But didn’t provide any alternative solutions from the LNP which were better.

  25. Late Riser is correct Paul was trashing everything Labor did like Tony Abbott. But didn’t provide any alternative solutions from the LNP which were better.

    🙂 Sorry. I can’t take that credit. 🙂

  26. ” But didn’t provide any alternative solutions from the LNP which were better.”

    They are not in government so they are an alternative to begin with. Wasn’t Kevin Rudd going to be the great messiah? Wasn’t voting for Howard all those times such a great thing?

    In five years Palaszczuk is going to be seen for what she is. Then all those that voted for her will be walking around asking themselves “why” Howard should never have been voted back that last term. Palaszczuk should not be voted back this term.

  27. Paul @ #67 Wednesday, October 28th, 2020 – 7:42 am

    Labor held to a higher standard?

    I do not think so. Why has nothing come about the Queensland sports rorts? A minister overturning the PS recommendations and handing money to labor electorates. Why has nothing come about the multiple secret agreements the government has signed? Like the secret cost to host the AFL. The secret royalty agreement with Adani. The banning of developer donations, something quite undemocratic in itself. The removal of optional preferential voting. The closing down of tertiary educational facilities in disadvantaged areas. The fact that babies in rural Queensland die at higher rates due to cuts in health services. You could go on and on and on.

    But she kept us safe apparently. Seems to me the thing keeping Palaszczuk safe is Deb Frecklington. A thousand things to attack Palaszczuk on and there is nothing.

    You’ve obviously got all your talking points sheets mixed up and just grabbing sheets at random.

  28. @Political Nightwatchman I’ve seen a lot of people like you on this blog, in the media and amongst political party apparatchiks, asserting that focus-group tested election soundbites, partisan cheerleading and cynicism disguised as pragmatism are more important than ethics, integrity, competence and leadership.

    And I’ve already told you what I “want done to be improved”. I want to vote the bastards out until bastards no longer see politics as an attractive long term career option. The system itself is the solution.

  29. Did anyone see Annastacia wipe the floor with Feckless Deb in the Tory favoured Sky News/Courier Mail debate? 53-30 with 17 undecided. I think the elections been decided. Labor’s now the $1.25 favourite to win on Saturday.

  30. I can understand the appeal of taking a radical stance like angora but I would love the world to be more about rational choices rather than reacting against some perceived idea that they’re all bastards. It is easy to be angry about everything but misplaced anger results in people like Vlad Putin or Adolf Hitler being in charge and prospering at the expense of the majority. As an ALP voter, I would rather LNP governments forever rather than an oligarchy like Russia.

  31. The election is getting weird in Queensland, click on Graham’s tweet to see the image

    https://twitter.com/GrahamPerrettMP/status/1321376098165297152
    Graham Perrett @GrahamPerrettMP
    This is extraordinary. What on earth is going on with the LNP in Queensland under Deb Frecklington? This can’t be true. What a mess. #Qldpol
    7:59 PM · Oct 28, 2020

    Related
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8882679/Queensland-LNP-candidate-Peter-Zhuangs-newspaper-ads-asking-Chinese-people-vote-own.html

    On a different matter, watch this weird Katter vid
    https://twitter.com/Qldaah/status/1321319784013651974

  32. “but misplaced anger results in people like Vlad Putin or Adolf Hitler being in charge ”

    Funny I though it was being conned by politicians. It is caused by people not getting rid of mediocre government’s when they have the chance, leading to so much destruction in the end that they will cling onto anyone promising something better. Of course the shifty politicians find a scapegoat for the people to blame other then themselves. Angorafish has it worked out. Few ever do.

    It is going to be a wild ride next four years. Blaming Canberra for everything will eventually get old. Especially when Canberra cut back the states allowance to pay their own debt off. There will be lots of furiousness.

  33. Amid all your opinions/prognostications/observations about politics and life in general Paul, can you please share the rest of your enormous knowledge with us all, by way of a simple election prediction? Even if you can’t narrow it down to predict how many seats, primary vote, majority govt etc – even a simple response to “who will get sworn in as Premier?” will do

  34. Here are my guesses for the election outcome:
    ALP >= 40% primary vote
    LNP <= 30% primary vote
    ALP to hold all their current seats & gain Burdekin, Whitsunday, Mirani, Bundaberg, Pumicstone, Chatsworth + at least 1 on the Sunshine Coast & at least 2 on the Gold Coast.

    My guesses may be completely wrong. We will find out on Saturday night.

  35. Coomera will fall to Labor. The LNP are getting so desperate they dragged out JP Langbroek from his safe seat of Surfers to campaign with Michael Crandon. He rocked up at the pre poll booth, stuffed his face with food, didn’t speak to one single voter then pissed off after 15 minutes. Even he must know Crandon’s got no chance.

  36. “And I’ve already told you what I “want done to be improved”. I want to vote the bastards out until bastards no longer see politics as an attractive long term career option. The system itself is the solution.”

    @AngoraFish

    Your comment is not a solution. Its a vague aimless statement at best. Anyway this section is about the Queensland election, not some political revolution. You can reply to this if you wish but I won’t commenting any further because its not relevant.

  37. Really would prefer not to live in a corporate theocracy greased by spivs like Clive, wagged by the religious right and led by a folksy Nationals-style Premier from Nanango.

    Been there, done that.

  38. @M- JPL has been popping up all over the shop. He has nothing to worry about pre-poll or not so is getting out and about across many seats. Last week I saw the Surfers pre-poll and it was just two LNP guys there. No other party.

    I think that this election was again one where the LNP has snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. If they do somehow win on Saturday it will not be because of a master grand plan like what Morrison did. A solid campaign would have put Labor on the ropes and down for the count.

    At the same time, the ALP doesn’t really deserve to win either. I feel dismayed at the lack of quality policy and vision from either party.

    My vote in my seat was against the sitting member for no other reason than I live in a ‘safe’ seat and don’t want my vote contributing to a safer margin hence less attention to the electorate as it is taken for granted by one side and written off by the other. Maybe not the most solid reason but nobody gave me any real reason to vote for them either.

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