It turns out The Australian was holding back one last Newspoll marginal seat poll, to go with the Pumiceston, Mundingburra and Mansfield polls covered in this post. This time it’s South Brisbane, where Amy MacMahon of the Greens is created with a 54.5-45.5 lead over Labor’s Jackie Trad, who won by 3.5% in 2017. The primary votes are Greens 39% (34.4% in 2017), Labor 32% (36.0%) and LNP 24% (24.3%).
The two-party result is based on a 60-40 split of preferences from the LNP, who have Labor last on their how-to-vote cards, which is apparently a guesstimate. The only precedent I can think of for which the relevant data is readily available is Melbourne at the 2007 and 2010 federal elections (the Liberals put Adam Bandt behind Labor at later elections), at which the flow of Liberal preferences was upwards of 80%. Annastacia Palaszczuk has a 62-22 lead in the electorate over Deb Frecklington, which perhaps predictably is the widest among the four electorates polled, it being by far the weakest for the LNP.
As with the other seat polls, this was conducted last Tuesday to Thursday from a curiously exact sample of 404, and thus carries a wide theoretical error margin of 5%. It may also be noted that the record of polling in inner-city Labor-Greens contests is patchy at best.
• Elsewhere, the ABC’s state politics reporter, Peter McCutcheon, reckons there is “growing evidence the LNP is giving up on the idea of forming majority government”. This refers to the LNP’s pursuit of a curfew policy that might poach seats from Labor in the target markets in Cairns and Townsville, but will do so at a cost in support in the Brisbane marginals that are must-win from a majority point of view. It is noted that Frecklington’s campaign has made defensive plays in the Gold Coast seat of Currumbin while neglecting most vulnerable seats in Brisbane, Aspley, Mansfield and Redlands. Conversely, a “senior Labor source” quoted in The Australian says the election will be “won and lost” on Townsville, where Labor could “possibly afford to lose one seat, but any more and we’re in trouble”.
• Charlie Peel of The Australian reports the LNP are hopeful of winning north Queensland seats where they finished third behind One Nation in 2017, including Mackay, Keppel and Thuringowa. Such results are predicated on a strong flow of preferences from One Nation candidates who stand to be excluded this time, and thus amount to a backfiring of Labor’s abolition of optional preferential voting at the last election. Internal LNP polling is said to show 65% of One Nation voters intend to preference the LNP ahead of Labor, much as they did at the federal election.
• Katter’s Australian Party is hawking a ReachTEL poll that shows 57% support for North Queensland to form a new state, for which the party is pushing for a referendum to be held after the election. The Courier-Mail says “350 voters in the marginal electorate of Mundingburra (were) polled as part of the survey”, leading me to wonder if that was part of the sample or the whole. Also on the KAP front, Robbie Katter says both that his party has not official position on euthanasia, which Labor has put on the agenda by promising reactivate stalled assisted dying laws, but also that he “would find it enormously hard to align with anyone that would ever contemplate pushing that agenda in the next parliament”.