Queensland election minus five days

Another small-sample Newspoll seat poll, this one suggesting Jackie Trad has her work cut out for her in South Brisbane.

It turns out The Australian was holding back one last Newspoll marginal seat poll, to go with the Pumiceston, Mundingburra and Mansfield polls covered in this post. This time it’s South Brisbane, where Amy MacMahon of the Greens is created with a 54.5-45.5 lead over Labor’s Jackie Trad, who won by 3.5% in 2017. The primary votes are Greens 39% (34.4% in 2017), Labor 32% (36.0%) and LNP 24% (24.3%).

The two-party result is based on a 60-40 split of preferences from the LNP, who have Labor last on their how-to-vote cards, which is apparently a guesstimate. The only precedent I can think of for which the relevant data is readily available is Melbourne at the 2007 and 2010 federal elections (the Liberals put Adam Bandt behind Labor at later elections), at which the flow of Liberal preferences was upwards of 80%. Annastacia Palaszczuk has a 62-22 lead in the electorate over Deb Frecklington, which perhaps predictably is the widest among the four electorates polled, it being by far the weakest for the LNP.

As with the other seat polls, this was conducted last Tuesday to Thursday from a curiously exact sample of 404, and thus carries a wide theoretical error margin of 5%. It may also be noted that the record of polling in inner-city Labor-Greens contests is patchy at best.

• Elsewhere, the ABC’s state politics reporter, Peter McCutcheon, reckons there is “growing evidence the LNP is giving up on the idea of forming majority government”. This refers to the LNP’s pursuit of a curfew policy that might poach seats from Labor in the target markets in Cairns and Townsville, but will do so at a cost in support in the Brisbane marginals that are must-win from a majority point of view. It is noted that Frecklington’s campaign has made defensive plays in the Gold Coast seat of Currumbin while neglecting most vulnerable seats in Brisbane, Aspley, Mansfield and Redlands. Conversely, a “senior Labor source” quoted in The Australian says the election will be “won and lost” on Townsville, where Labor could “possibly afford to lose one seat, but any more and we’re in trouble”.

Charlie Peel of The Australian reports the LNP are hopeful of winning north Queensland seats where they finished third behind One Nation in 2017, including Mackay, Keppel and Thuringowa. Such results are predicated on a strong flow of preferences from One Nation candidates who stand to be excluded this time, and thus amount to a backfiring of Labor’s abolition of optional preferential voting at the last election. Internal LNP polling is said to show 65% of One Nation voters intend to preference the LNP ahead of Labor, much as they did at the federal election.

• Katter’s Australian Party is hawking a ReachTEL poll that shows 57% support for North Queensland to form a new state, for which the party is pushing for a referendum to be held after the election. The Courier-Mail says “350 voters in the marginal electorate of Mundingburra (were) polled as part of the survey”, leading me to wonder if that was part of the sample or the whole. Also on the KAP front, Robbie Katter says both that his party has not official position on euthanasia, which Labor has put on the agenda by promising reactivate stalled assisted dying laws, but also that he “would find it enormously hard to align with anyone that would ever contemplate pushing that agenda in the next parliament”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

98 comments on “Queensland election minus five days”

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  1. If Trad loses, I imagine someone in a safe Labor seat will get “sick” and have to retire and Trad will re-enter parliament. She might have to move and buy a new house though. She comes with a lot of baggage for Labor though. Multiple media reports indicating she is a bully and Labor is supposed to be anti-bully.

  2. Call me crazy but it used to be more important to save a government than to save a single MP who made a bad error of judgement.

  3. Probably expected after the last election when LNP preferences got her in. It seems like the ALP have moved on and look better without her. Also my observation is that the LNPs lurch toward religious conviction politics and a rural leader from the Bible belt is turning off city voters. Some former small l Lib voters are turning to the greens.

  4. Peter McCutcheon’s articles for ABC.net focus on the LNP, ranging from concern trolling to admiration. Read with care.

    WB if you’re watching, you probably didn’t mean to publish this.

    Annastacia Palaszczuk has a 62-22 lead in the electorate of Deb Frecklington in the electorate

    Perhaps “Annastacia Palaszczuk has a 62-22 lead in the electorate of Inala.” Then something about Deb Frecklington?

  5. ‘Why has Labor run with Trad again? It is just giving a seat to the Greens. This could easily be headed for an ACT style coalition.’

    That’s rubbish. Jackie Trad recontesting is Labors best chance of holding South Brisbane. Some people on this blog are certainly are being swayed by the Courier Mails all out assualt on Trad.

    It should be noted last election Steven Miles decision not to recontest Maiwar handed the seat to the Greens when he would have held it if he recontested. He instead chose to stand in Murrumba.

    What gives the Greens the edge. Is they have the luxury of throwing all their man power and resources in three seats. While Labor has a has to space it out in seats all over Queensland as they have the responsibility of trying to retain government.

    I note people on here theorizing on what Trad will do if she lost her seat that she will chop someone down. I never heard these theories when Scott Emerson lost his seat.

  6. To Wayne: Our great Labor Party will win the qld state election by a landslide and Annastacia Palaczszuk will be Premier for another 4 years!

  7. Actually M, Palaszczuk will most likely quit this term win or lose. It is unusual for leaders to stay in their jobs much past two terms as people get sick of their face and want a change especially when their performance has been quite lacklustre as Labor has been in Queensland and propped up by constant borrowing money to balance the budget which anyone knows is a one way trip to bankruptcy.

    No doubt Steven Miles would be her replacement, him being deputy.

  8. Dick will replace Palasczuck mid-term.

    Jackie Trad won’t stand for State Parliament as she needs a seat with a 15% margin to be assured of winning given the circumstances and her own unpopularity. There are only three of them, one held by Palasczuck, one by Dick and Bundamba where the local member has only recently been elected.

    She could go Federal, that would mean overturning an incumbent Left faction Senator, Nita Green.

  9. What I am surprised about is no parties have bought up how just two months ago Labor introduced legislation to jail journalists for six months for telling the people about corruption in politics.

    Given Clive is going on about a fake death tax and Labor about a fake 30 000 LNP job cut, I expected some parties to use Labors recent attempt at censorship through jail to be mentioned.

  10. Just an anecdote:

    Spoke yesterday to my oldest son and his wife, and between the three of us we decided that on balance it will make sense to vote Labor this time round. Last night at 11:35 PM my and my youngest son’s cars were stolen. The perpetrators came back at 2:30AM (not sure why), and we were still awake but too slow to catch them.

    Crime here in Townsville is real and a problem.

    This morning, after the story was told in the office and by the response in our street, I believe Labor lost a few votes. Will see over the week-end how it goes. We are in Mundingburra.

  11. M

    Our great LNP will win the qld state election by a landslide and deb feckington will make a great premier and the ALP will be in opposition till 2028….

  12. “Jackie Trad won’t stand for State Parliament as she needs a seat with a 15% margin to be assured of winning given the circumstances and her own unpopularity.”

    Another right winger on here. I see you have bought the Murdoch spin……….

  13. IMHO, the campaign against Jackie Trad will deliver Burdekin, Whitsunday & Mirani to Labor.

    It’s good to see the LNP and Greens working today.

  14. The left faction control QLD Labor and it’s internal party politics. QLD Labor has taken a hard shift to the left since 2012 in an attempt to counteract the rise of the inner city Greens vote which absolutely petrifies them. Under the party constitution the leader and deputy must be from opposing factions. Annastacia is from the right and Miles is from the left. If Annastacia were to resign at any time her replacement won’t be Miles! Even though the left faction have the numbers, Cameron Dick from the right would be the likely successor IMO. The left faction in QLD has never been about taking leadership positions or cabinet ministries, but about changing the Party’s legislative agenda and policy direction through the biennial State Conference. If you control the floor, you control the agenda.

  15. “the campaign against Jackie Trad will deliver Burdekin, Whitsunday & Mirani to Labor.”

    I am not sure how an inner city electorate would have any bearing on three regional seats. You could not find many more diametrically opposed seats.

  16. Bird of paradox

    Our great LNP will win the qld state election by a landslide and will be in power for 10 years and deb feckington will make the best leader of our great state of Queensland

  17. “I am not sure how an inner city electorate would have any bearing on three regional seats”

    During last year’s federal election, the LNP message in regional Qld was “a Labor Government will be hijacked by the nasty Greens who want to shutdown the mining industry”. The campaign worked!
    Early this month, Debeckles announced that the LNP will put Labor last on their HTV’s in order to help the Greens defeat Labor in inner city electorates. This equates to the LNP telling mining workers “we want to help the Greens take away your jobs”. LNP own goal one.
    The LNP have erected billboards around regional Qld to tell the voters about Jackie Trad. I don’t know why. Google “LNP Jackie Trad billboards” to find the story. LNP own goal two.
    Whenever the news headline “Greens may defeat Jackie Trad” is broadcast in the mining parts of state, it reinforces the message “the LNP want to help the Greens take away our jobs”.

    I may to right or I may be wrong. We will find out on Saturday night.

  18. Green haters actually hate Jackie Trad more than they hate the Greens. That’s because they fear she might actually wield real power.

  19. Late Riser

    You know that our great LNP will win the qld state election and will be in power for 15 years and deb feckington will be a great Premier of our great state Of Queensland

  20. My brother’s name is Wayne,hope it’s not him. I seem to remember Wayne got Scomos unexpected win correct though, for some reason I’m not so apprehensive about this result.p

  21. PP, 6 years ago when I stumbled on this blog it occurred to me that Xbzof (+1 cipher) was a group of university students having fun. The language would shift from time to time, provocatively. Later I wondered if our host was having the fun. But these days I’m inclined towards algorithmic mimicry. You can have fun with it.

  22. Wait, so the left controls the Qld ALP so thoroughly they don’t control who is leader? Wow, that is some powerful control and some sneaky deception, if true.

  23. Wait, so the left controls the Qld ALP so thoroughly they don’t control who is leader? Wow, that is some powerful control and some sneaky deception, if true.

  24. I’m feeling cautiously optimistic about Saturday, though I am a bit nervous about the Townsville and FNQ marginals. But South East Queensland is looking good for Labor, so hopefully it’ll even out if there is a swing to the LNP up north. Deb Frecklington seems to be flailing about without direction, refusing to commit to much of anything besides “getting Queensland working again”. Oh, and lowering taxes and getting back into surplus, which presumably is going to involve a whole lot of public servants doing the opposite of working.

    The “Palazczsuk has done nothing in five years” line is not remotely true, in my opinion. No, there arn’t the great deal of the sort of big, sexy reforms that make headlines – this is Queensland, rapid change is a great way to get kicked back to opposition – just boring-but-solid governance and measured, informed, incremental change for the better. Additionally, the government is running on its record, their campaign just happens to be focussed on what they intend to do next term, because duh.

    I’d also dispute the idea that Palazczsuk is at all unpopular, and the polling bears that out in my opinion. She’s certainly not some beloved rockstar-type pollie in the vein of Hawke or Rudd, but state premiers rarely are – she’s an unexciting, reliable, steady hand. I’m sure she’s detested in some areas of Queensland, but across the whole state? No way.

    On debt – borrowing to fund jobs, services, and infrastructure is exactly what a government should be doing in a recession. Meanwhile, the LNP wants to bring in an austerity budget during an economic downturn… while also boasting about how they will (somehow) increase jobs! It’s madness.

  25. Harley:

    People make way too much of a big deal about what faction a Labor leader is from. It rarely informs their platform. They arn’t a dictator, they serve at the behest of their party. The leader has a fair bit of sway, obviously, but the idealogical make-up of caucus, the platform the broader membership votes on, and – of course – the need to win over the public generally play a greater role in how “left” or “right” a particular government or opposition is.

    That said, I have no idea whether that claim about the inner machinations of the Queensland party is actually true, but it’s hardly an implausible scenario either.

  26. The lnp are spruiking their $300 rego rebate on the airwaves, to arrive in voters hands before Xmas.

    Courier Mail and associates would have a field day if it were Labor making a cash back promise like that.

  27. Who is Paul and what is he taking?
    I am not trying to be smart, I admire his ability to twist everything towards the most unlikely and want to know what he uses.

  28. Who is Paul and what is he taking?
    I am not trying to be smart, I admire his ability to twist everything towards the most unlikely and want to know what he uses.

  29. You heard it here first: I have credible information from an opposing LNP source stating that Kaylee Crampradt will win Currumbin quite comfortably on Saturday. Their troops on the ground are getting slaughtered on pre-polls and there is quite a decent vote there for Richard Stuckey, husband of Jann the previous member. He is running as an independent and is directing preferences towards Labor. With Labor’s primary vote remaining stable and LNP’s dropping, it should be a very comfortable pick up for them. Get on Sportsbet now cause Labor are paying $1.95 for the win. That’s pretty decent odds.

  30. Steve777>>> “The Resources sector creates more jobs in the O’Connell electorate than there are voters, according to the Queensland Resources Council:”

    Its the multiplier effect.

  31. LNP to release their policy costings on Thursday. ABC news report mentioned that about 70% of electors will probably have already voted.

  32. The Left definitely have the numbers in the Qld ALP, both the party and to a slightly lesser extent the caucus. However, it is not monolithic and there are plenty of opportunists (including Steven Miles) who were formerly in the AWU or Old Guard factions but now in the Left for self interest. Also, parts of the Left genuinely despise Jacky Trad (although the CFMMEU has now departed). In short, it is not very Left despite its name.

  33. That’s good goss M and makes sense too.

    Another seat that it would be interesting to get on the ground info on is Bundaberg. You’d think the LNP would have an easy win but its only at $1.65 with the ALP at $2.20.

    Yes, formerly a Labor seat but still curious odds. Maybe the local LNP member has some problems.

  34. That is odd M, I have information from my sister’s, cousin’s, former room-mate’s, father’s, nephew. That Labor have all but given up hope in holding Maryborough, Rockhampton, Keppel, Mackay, Townsville, Thuringowra, Mundingburra, Cairns and Barron River.

  35. Paul, why the apostrophes in ‘sister’s, cousin’s, former room-mate’s, father’s….’ They are just plurals, not possessives! Is English your second language?

  36. Negative press or just a dumb policy?

    There are no concrete plans to expand the LNP’s proposed youth curfew laws outside Cairns and Townsville in the state’s north, with the party’s focus being the results of the initial six-month trial.

    Those caught would be taken by police to “refuges”, such as PCYCs, for supervision and their parents fined $250. If elected, the LNP will start a six-month trial in Townsville and Cairns immediately.

    Ms Frecklington said she had not thought past the initial six months.

    Ms Frecklington said success would be a decrease in juvenile crime in the two cities and expansion would only be considered if there was “an immediate, identified [crime] problem” elsewhere.

    Is Frecklington being defensive or sneaky? And why aren’t air quotes applied to the word “concrete”?

    But the logic is simple. If this doesn’t work you people in Brisbane are safe. We won’t be locking up your kids. But if it does work, and by the way we hope it does, then yes, we will be locking them up too. Also, we get to decide if a problem exists and if catching kids solves it. We haven’t really thought it through.

    What am I missing?

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