Newspoll Queensland marginal seat polls

Very close races in two Labor-held marginals, but Labor appears to have a break in the LNP-held seat of Pumicestone.

The Australian brings us Queensland election state polls courtesy of Newspoll, the results of which are consistent with a general intelligence picture covered here: a close election with regionally patchy results, a slump in support for minor parties and especially for One Nation, and negligible support for Clive Palmer’s party, which in each case has support at either 1% or 2%.

• In the Brisbane seat of Mansfield, which Corrine McMillan gained for Labor in 2017 by a margin of 1.6%, Labor is credited with a lead of 50.5-49.5, from primary votes of Labor 41% (39.4% at the 2017 election), LNP 45% (40.2%), Greens 9% (11.3%) and One Nation 2% (9.1%). Annastacia Palaszczuk leads Deb Frecklington as preferred premier by 54-32. Sample: 404.

• In the Townsville seat of Mundingburra, which Labor holds by a 1.1% margin, the LNP leads 50.5-49.5, from primary votes of LNP 32% (26.1% in 2017), Labor 35% (31.4%), Katter’s Australian Party 14% (13.9%), One Nation 11% (16.7%) and Greens 4% (7.6%). Palaszczuk leads 43-36 as preferred premier. The seat is being vacated with the retirement of Labor member Coralee O’Rourke.

• In Pumicestone, on the cusp of northern Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast, which the LNP won by an 0.8% margin in 2017, Labor leads 54-46, from primary votes of Labor 45% (35.6% in 2017), LNP 37% (29.9%), One Nation 9% (23.3%) and Greens 6% (5%). Palaszczuk leads 55-29 as preferred premier. The seat is being vacated with the retirement of LNP member Simone Wilson.

Samples sizes are small – apparently exactly 404 apiece – but Campbell White of YouGov relates that these are the “first ever Newspoll seat polls conducted by live telephone to mobile phones”, presumably reflecting the fact that past seat polling was either in the landline era or conducted by robopolling. The polling was conducted from Tuesday to Thursday.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

81 comments on “Newspoll Queensland marginal seat polls”

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  1. Fair enough point Mike, but in general I would say LNPs ads don’t hit the mark. Using Jackie Trad as their anti alp bogey woman just doesn’t resonate. They should have held off on her to the election, so as she was still around.Jarrod Bleige the immature ex AG under cando couldn’t help himself and kept bringing up stuff until her position became untenable,thus negating one of their best attack lines.

  2. It’s going to be a majority Labor government. I have not seen any mood for change on the pre poll booths. It’s been very Labor friendly in Coomera. These small sample polls are highly inaccurate. I go by mood on the ground and it’s very positive for a majority Palaczszuk government. Unlike last year during the federal campaign, polls had Labor in front by miles yet the feeling and mood on the ground was very much the opposite. We were getting abused etc. and told where to go. Towards the end of pre polls I knew we were going to lose and lose easily. That mood and anger is definitely not there for Annastacia.

  3. Electorates over quota variance margin, three:
    Coomera 25.48%
    Murrumba 13.01%
    Clayfield 10.71%
    Close:
    Hervey Bay 9.27%
    Bulimba 8.87%
    McConnel 8.24%

    Electorates under quota variance margin, nil.
    Close:
    Oodgerooo -8.92%
    Gaven -8.91%
    Mundingburra -8.10%

  4. Idle thought: The LNP’s “Christian Soldiers” faction is deliberately and carefully displacing the “liberal” faction, in effect returning Qld conservatives to the time of Joh. While that blunts PHON “in the bush” it gives Greens a boost in professional suburbs. Maiwar might become a bellwether.

  5. Late Riser, I know people who were never disposed to the ALP who now vote the Greens.LNP has now been infiltrated by the Christian right and the people I mentioned are not Christian adherents.Some people down south may like to lampoon Qld but often where we go they follow. I see the abortion decriminalisation vote as a harbinger, the members who voted for it were persona non grata with the LNP Christian gathering. With Jan Stuckey hounded out of parliament by Deb & co. It will get to the point where the ladies who do lunch in various business groups will feel very uncomfortable in the sobering handmaidenesque surrounds of a paternalistic LNP brotherhood assembly.

  6. Yes I can dig it from a few angles of the fig leaf both biblical shame and to cover up the LNP brotherhood.I wonder about Deb as well,is she a strong Christian who keeps it under her hat as many are up in the Kinga Bible belt? I am old enough to have endured gerrymander Johs long hypocritical, sanctimonious and moralistic reign. Please never again.

  7. The problem for the LNP is that they are socially too far to the right. There whole caucus slants that way, and there a very few moderates in their ranks. And as mentioned any who have the courage to dissent get bullied out of the party and there preselection’s threaten.

    There is a certain disconnect with community expectations and the LNP. It why they won’t make inroads in Brisbane, but even their heartland in the Gold Coast may turn against them if keep this direction in the party up.

    There is a suggestion in the Guardian, the LNP a selecting the most right wing candidates in very socially moderate areas.

    “Rowan, a former National, represents the progressive city fringe seat of Moggill, where there is a strong Greens vote. The LNP candidate in the Greens-held western suburbs seat of Maiwar, Lauren Day, was backed for preselection by the party’s rightwing.

    LNP sources say the notion conservatives are running for the party in critical progressive areas shows the extent of internecine conflict that is damaging their statewide chances – where factional influence is taking precedence over a “horses for courses” approach in target seats.

    Other LNP candidates, such as Janet Wishart, a pastor at megachurch Citipointe, running for the marginal seat of Mansfield in Brisbane’s south, have made clear they are anti-abortion.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/oct/17/why-queenslands-opposition-leader-wants-partys-anti-abortion-push-kept-out-of-election-sight

  8. I am amazed at the number of Labor supporters who are experts at the LNP.

    The main problem with the LNP is they are not in government and not getting their face on the TV all the time making virus announcements. It is hard to win from opposition even against an apathetic government. Just ask Bill Shorten.

    I do not think many would argue the only thing saving Palaszczuk is coronavirus. She would be the luckiest politician in decades in Australia. Got her seat in parliament solely on her family name. Got the job of opposition leader because at the time they could have fitted all of Labor into a Tarago. Got to be premier because the LNP went really really full potatoe. Then will get back into government this time solely because of coronavirus.

    You can tell this because no one is saying what a wonderful job she has gone in government other then slowed the virus, the same as every other state did except one. No one is saying what remarkable achievements she has achieved in the past five years.

    It has been a remarkable amount of luck.

  9. ‘It has been a remarkable amount of luck.’

    If Annastasia Palaszczuk wins this election it will be 3 elections she has won. The argument it’s been ‘luck’ or its a ‘fluke’ is now starting to wear thin with her detractors.

  10. Annastacia has won government both times on the back of being anti-Newman. So long as the LNP have anyone associated with that man as their leader they will sit in opposition forever. People have very long memories and it was a very dark time in QLD’s history with that pipsqueak at the helm. I sincerely hope the LNP break up and divorce after the election. Go back to the two party system. Have your Nationals in the bush and your Liberals in SE QLD. For anyone to say they’re a united team behind Feckless Deb, I have serious concerns for their mental state.

  11. From an outsider looking in, I sincerely hope Palaszczuk wins, it would be a shame for someone else to take over the mess she is now creating for the QLD people, let her drown is her own vermin…

    She has played politics for her own selfish needs, and allowing fame over sick families. She has zero understanding of being a parent and has been given everything she has by dirty political family connections…

    Sadly far too many decent hard working families will lose their jobs, business and lives. While this elitist gets and gives special treatment to her kind, while the fools who vote for her, don’t.. Too stupid to realise what she is doing….

    QLDers, please don’t complain in 12 months time when your unemployment hits 15%, business shut down and move out, all while more of the lower income earners from Sydney & Melbourne move in for for the cheaper housing handouts…. She loads the deck for her own type, just like Melbourne has…

    Queensland. you will be Australia’s Mexico!

  12. I spoke to an LNP campaign manager yesterday in the know. He was saying that their psephologist has analysed data predicting big swings up north away from LNP and Labor in favour of One Nation and Katter. They’re also going to lose Currumbin and Pumicestone for sure. Burdekin will be a Katter gain on the back of Labor preferences.

  13. Just back from a visit to Maiwar. We collected four election flyers from our letterbox. Labor is notably absent. What I didn’t remember is how close the ALP/Greens tussle was last time. This makes ALP strategy in Maiwar even odder.

    Quick summary of the flyers.

    * The Greens, A5 size
    “MAKE YOUR VOTE COUNT”
    fight corporate interests and major party machines
    only 78 votes in it
    climate action

    * Ethical Greens, 21x10cm
    “Berkman’s Lies”
    dodgy fundraising
    Courier Mail quote
    page of lies (schools, buses, bridges, taxes, public homes)
    https://www.johnmeyerqld.com/

    * LNP, 21x10cm
    “About Lauren Day”
    15 years a journalist
    police officer husband
    Labor is failing qld, Greens are too
    high unemployment, bad traffic congestion, long hospital waiting times, soft on crime, slipping education standards, high debt

    * LNP?, A4 size
    “Rude shock awaits if Greens get their way”
    “Put Greens Last, LNP first”
    crude photocopies of Courier Mail articles
    climate change is fake

  14. AP has her finger on the pulse and seems well in control, Sportsbet still offering $7.50 for ALP primary vote 40-45 per cent – for all the LNP chumps who deep down know Deb is cooked and want to put their prejudices aside, and just make some money

  15. https://www.pollbludger.net/2020/10/23/newspoll-queensland-marginal-seat-polls/comment-page-2/#comment-3500120

    The Greens generally get quite the sophomore surge, mostly from ALP primaries, making it hard for the ALP to take the seat back by overtaking the Greens. The ALP could not even manage it in Prahran in 2018 with the big state-wide sophomore surge swing to the ALP at that occurred at that election, all they did was cause the Greens to have what is, as far as I know, the first repeat win from third place on primaries in Australian political history.

  16. Tom the first and best @ #70 Sunday, October 25th, 2020 – 5:37 pm

    https://www.pollbludger.net/2020/10/23/newspoll-queensland-marginal-seat-polls/comment-page-2/#comment-3500120

    The Greens generally get quite the sophomore surge, mostly from ALP primaries, making it hard for the ALP to take the seat back by overtaking the Greens. The ALP could not even manage it in Prahran in 2018 with the big state-wide sophomore surge swing to the ALP at that occurred at that election, all they did was cause the Greens to have what is, as far as I know, the first repeat win from third place on primaries in Australian political history.

    I see the logic. Thanks. Maiwar will be interesting.

  17. “She has zero understanding of being a parent”

    For Pete’s sake it’s the 21st Century. Can we stop the ‘she can’t rule because she’s barren’ routine.

  18. To say nothing of those who have either made a thoughtful decision not to go there (sometimes deciding that it’s not for you is the most considered parenting decision of all), or who simply can’t or haven’t by reason of medical non-negotiables or other life circumstances. Also assumes that people who haven’t brought up kids as primary carers aren’t part of someone’s hugely cherished parenting village, haven’t been the friend or sister or brother you ring when you desperately need an adult ear, aren’t the “aunty” or “uncle” the kids love to distraction. And if they aren’t, so what?

    Insulting, petty, and just awful, awful form, regardless of your political affiliation. This is not fair game.

  19. I think her position on parenthood and life and death is that God/ Jesus decides these things not the individual,I think this is what fundamentalist Christians believe of whom now are legion in the LNP ranks. Of course I agree with your position Warrigal.

  20. Newspoll seat poll shows Jackie Trad losing 45.5/54.5. That’s one inner city gain to the Greens. The other possibility is McConnel, where the Greens are favourites but I think Labor will get over the line as their candidate is not as personally unpopular as Jackie Trad.

  21. “People like do-nothing governments. Change is scary.”

    ***

    The establishment certainly likes do-nothing governments. They are scared of real change.

  22. PrincePlanet, Stay away if I were you, thats is too funny, the low IQ is showing out….

    Like I said, she deserves to get back in, it would not be fair for someone else to take over the mess she is creating. your State is going into deep recession and unemployment will rise, obviously that does not affect you, but it will when our Federal handouts stop in March…. Thats a given…

    It defies logic on how stupid people like you are… all worried about “the virus” while not even knowing a single person thats had it, in the big vast empty State of QLD, oh thats right, she saved you all, please its not possible people are that void.. No wonder you guys are the laughing stock of the country.

    And by the way, I will be up there in about a year to buy some cheap land, No don’t panic, I’m only joking, No money made in the bottom end of the market.

    You enjoy it while others own it…..

    buena suerte…..

  23. I see Dan Wilso is proving Late Riser and company’s point.

    Already campaigning for the Federal election.
    As for the results conceded by the only LNP poster I hope it is a Labor Green ACT style coalition.

    That has lasted for a long time and for the same reasons. The Liberals have been too extreme right having been taking over by religious ideologues.

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