Newspoll Queensland marginal seat polls

Very close races in two Labor-held marginals, but Labor appears to have a break in the LNP-held seat of Pumicestone.

The Australian brings us Queensland election state polls courtesy of Newspoll, the results of which are consistent with a general intelligence picture covered here: a close election with regionally patchy results, a slump in support for minor parties and especially for One Nation, and negligible support for Clive Palmer’s party, which in each case has support at either 1% or 2%.

• In the Brisbane seat of Mansfield, which Corrine McMillan gained for Labor in 2017 by a margin of 1.6%, Labor is credited with a lead of 50.5-49.5, from primary votes of Labor 41% (39.4% at the 2017 election), LNP 45% (40.2%), Greens 9% (11.3%) and One Nation 2% (9.1%). Annastacia Palaszczuk leads Deb Frecklington as preferred premier by 54-32. Sample: 404.

• In the Townsville seat of Mundingburra, which Labor holds by a 1.1% margin, the LNP leads 50.5-49.5, from primary votes of LNP 32% (26.1% in 2017), Labor 35% (31.4%), Katter’s Australian Party 14% (13.9%), One Nation 11% (16.7%) and Greens 4% (7.6%). Palaszczuk leads 43-36 as preferred premier. The seat is being vacated with the retirement of Labor member Coralee O’Rourke.

• In Pumicestone, on the cusp of northern Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast, which the LNP won by an 0.8% margin in 2017, Labor leads 54-46, from primary votes of Labor 45% (35.6% in 2017), LNP 37% (29.9%), One Nation 9% (23.3%) and Greens 6% (5%). Palaszczuk leads 55-29 as preferred premier. The seat is being vacated with the retirement of LNP member Simone Wilson.

Samples sizes are small – apparently exactly 404 apiece – but Campbell White of YouGov relates that these are the “first ever Newspoll seat polls conducted by live telephone to mobile phones”, presumably reflecting the fact that past seat polling was either in the landline era or conducted by robopolling. The polling was conducted from Tuesday to Thursday.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

81 thoughts on “Newspoll Queensland marginal seat polls”

  1. LNP are getting bent over in the south east. They may win seats up north but lose a few seats in Brisbane, Sunshine Coast and Gold Coast. I’m predicting a status quo result. Labor to win 48-50 seats and be in majority government for the next 4 years.

  2. Spent several hours on HDV duties on a prepoll in a safe Labor Brisbane seat this morning. The seat is safe but the sitting member announced retirement very late so we have a new candidate with little time to get established.

    I have worked the electorate for over 20 years. The feeling was more positive than last election where we won every booth.

    I understand that the election will not be decided in Brisbane but in general I am finding no feeling of anger big enough to result in a change of government.

  3. I would take the preferred premier as a pretty good guide to voting intentions. Could be close but I reckon ALP with slightly increased majority. LNP should be way ahead in mundingburra if they want to win.

  4. I’m predicting Coomera, Theodore, Currumbin, Burleigh, Pumicestone and Caloundra are definitely in play for Labor. Claire Richardson the independent may pick up Oodgeroo which will make it difficult for the LNP yet again. I can’t see LNP picking up more than 4-5 seats without losing that many either.

  5. Having worked on the pre polls in Coomera, Labor WILL WIN COOMERA. I’m extremely confident. The population growth in the electorate has brought many Labor voting refugees from Sydney and Melbourne. Roughly 1200 people a month are moving into Pimpama, Upper Coomera, Ormeau and Yatala. If I’m wrong I’ll eat my hat. But the response on the pre poll booth is extremely Labor friendly.

  6. Palaszczuk seems to be losing grip even more.

    Steven Miles atrocious language for a deputy premier calling fellow parliamentarians freaks and weirdo’s.
    A senior government minister saying youth crime is caused by people having children solely to get government money.
    Palaszczuk doing nothing over candidates saying put the LNP last in direct defiance to Labor HQ, doing nothing to tell Steven Miles to put a sock in it and doing nothing about a senior minister slurring parents.

    Other then create unemployment and debt and do a lot of arm waving and huffing and puffing, what does she do?

    If Labor lose more seats in North Queensland and gain more in the SEQ, what does that say about them governing for the whole state? It indicates they are more SEQ centric then ever. Which points to a huge downfall down the track, should the LNP install a leader who can actually attack Labor.

  7. The collapse of the Palmer and One Nation vote is extremely good news for the ALP!

    Beyond this state election, that’s how Albo can win Qld federally… If the ALP wins Qld Albo becomes PM.

  8. If you average the seat poll swing, it implies an ALP two party preferred of 52%.

    So we now have four polls, although three of them are by the same company. They are in terms of ALP two party preferred, YouGov 1 -52%, YouGov 2 -52%, Morgan -51%, YouGov (seats) -52%.

    Unless the cards fall very badly for the ALP (or the polling is wrong) they should win a narrow majority.

    Although I actually think the ALP will do a bit better than 52/48 and do rather well on the GC this time.

  9. I think by the polls Brisbane will not swing either way as ALP have most of the seats. Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast and their hinterlands will swing to the ALP. The rest of the state to LNP will get a swing to them. With the seats lost by the ALP in the rest of the state to be offset by gains in the Coasts. Think 6-8 seats total changing hands.

  10. “Claire Richardson the independent may pick up Oodgeroo which will make it difficult for the LNP yet again”

    Political analyst Paul Williams was asked about Claire Richardson’s chances in Oodgeroo. He suggested she wasn’t likely to win Oodgeroo, as independents generally don’t have success in metro areas outside capital cities.

  11. Oodgeroo is coastal, taking in Stradbroke Island, with a very conservative sitting member on a “safe” margin and a controversial local issue which has the support of both majors but not necessarily the community (the massive Toondah Harbour development proposed for a RAMSAR area).

    The MSM outside the area has dutifully ignored the seat, as opposed to the huge publicity nationally when Zali Steggall took on the former PM, but there are some parallels with Warringah 2019, and we all know how that one went.

  12. I spoke to some friends in the oodgeroo electorate, not ALP supporters by any means. They say the local member who has been around for a while is vulnerable to this independent. He is a born again christian and like a lot of these guys apparently a run of the mill thinker and a pretty moribund local member. They are hoping the independent may be more of a dynamic, free thinker and get more done for the area. Oodgeroo of course contains Cleveland and the wealthy Raby bay community where half million dollar cabin cruisers abound.

  13. From these figures I would rather be the ALP than LNP at this point. Elections are always close especially under the preferential system. NSW election was pretty close as well with final tpp about 52-48 and only a three seat majority when independents are counted. My feeling is that there will be a couple if losses up north on the mundingburra figures but not a bloodbath for Labor. If pumice stone is correct I can see a few more down here changing hands to Labor. Maybe worst case, net loss of three to ALP and best case a gain of a couple to get Labor to 50 seats. The days of the Courier Mail having a large anti Labor influence appear to be over. The end result being that news ltd.has turned a 170 year old institution into a joke that is now treated with disregard, disdain and scorn for being a farago of half truths and slanted opinionated propaganda, a bit like how Newman ( once championed so strongly in their pages) squandered his majority with a display of hubris and pride not likely to be seen ever again. This must break the hearts of diehard LNP exponents, to go from 78 seats to opposition in a brief shining moment must have been devastating. As a compassionate left of centre person who knows what a kick in the guts from life feels like, I can sympathise.

  14. Good to see Labor lying through their teeth. Just saw a Labor ad on youtube, it said the LNP were going to cut 30 000 public service jobs.

    Now Labor threw a fit when Palmer United had an ad saying Labor was going to introduce a death tax, they said they were going to try to get them stopped. But now Labor are running identical lying ads.

  15. There must be a lot of rusted-on moderate-to-damp LNP voters who are disheartened at the drift away from small-l liberal values and yet cling on in the hope that their take on what they think the party stands for will prevail, the group who vote Greens-1 LNP-2 but for whatever reason can’t quite bring themselves to give the ALP their primary and so hold their noses and vote, in practice, for the very type who most undermines their socially progressive, secular and inclusive aspirations – and this is where a dynamic, non-antediluvian and economically moderate independent with a not-unsympathetic professional background and a high local profile could prevail where the party wonks insist on pre-selecting candidates at odds with the electoral demographics.

    Interesting times.

  16. It will be really interesting to see how accurate the polls are after the Federal election. I remember the polls and betting agencies basically called the election over before the day and the message to Morrison was basically hand over the keys to Shorten right now.

    Nowhere was the polling more wrong than Qld.

    This will be interesting regardless of who wins to see how the polls match to the end result.

  17. Maroochydore is another interesting seat to watch on election night. I’m not saying it’s in play but I’m predicting a huge swing against the sitting member Fiona Simpson. She’s been there 28 years and after holidaying through there a few weeks back the mood around the joint is that it’s time for a change. Not to Labor, but to the Independent John Connolly who is running a very good local campaign.

  18. I forgot to mention you can add Bonney to the potential Labor pick ups list. Sam O’Connor’s in trouble with that 1.7% margin and he knows it.

  19. ‘Maroochydore is another interesting seat to watch on election night. I’m not saying it’s in play but I’m predicting a huge swing against the sitting member Fiona Simpson. She’s been there 28 years and after holidaying through there a few weeks back the mood around the joint is that it’s time for a change. Not to Labor, but to the Independent John Connolly who is running a very good local campaign.’

    If that’s true, its not being picked up on Sportsbet as John Connolly is listed at $34.00. Sportsbet does acknowledge independents as Claire Richardson (Oodgeroo) and former Labor state minster Margaret Keech (Macalister) are running as independents are listed at competitive odds.

    Your right about Fiona Simpson being there too long. Steve Wardill wrote an article in the Courier Mail suggesting one of the problems with the LNP having a outright rank and file vote for their preselections is its harder move to people on. So people who have outstayed their welcome or non-performers can remain if they have the ear of the rank and file. Simpson isn’t likely returning to the LNP leadership position (she was once Nats deputy) or the frontbench in any capacity. There is no reason she should remain in parliament just so she can bump up her super after being there for 28 years. When the LNP are desperate in need of rejuvenation in their ranks.

  20. Nowhere was the polling more wrong than Qld.

    I am hoping to be convinced that polling is not merely an exercise in political persuasion. So far I remain sceptical.

  21. @late riser, I am thinking less about persuasion of vote, more about selling papers. The polls were in favour of LNP 52-48 to being then swung to ALP 52-48, now back to LNP 50.5-49.5.

    I wouldn’t be surprised is ALP romps it in ultimately around 54-46 ultimately but could also see LNP go 54-46 (far less likely). People seem to have made their minds up already.

  22. Mike , Reading this confused story on I think it refers to the 400 person sample in Townsville where things are line ball. These seat polls from the Australian also show ALP ahead in Mansfield by a whisker and way ahead in pumice stone. In fact I think these results are the ones reported in this post by PB so no need to worry at this point.

  23. PP, that was also my understanding. The Curious Snail wouldn’t know if its arse was on fire. Don’t forget that the indie from Noosa is a progressive. Nice to have a friend or two if/when in need.

  24. Yes Mike, Courier up to its old tricks. The thing is it doesn’t actually do the LNP any favours in Qld. If it held them to account rather than slavishly supporting them maybe they would go better in government? The famous Courier Mail test only applies to Labor.

  25. It’s hard to tell there’s an election on here at all unless I have to stray into Maiwar. It seems as if the LNP have given up on Brisbane.

  26. It seems as if the LNP have given up on Brisbane.

    The NQ/SEQ divide is real. It should be easy for the LNP to push “latte sipper” and related memes in NQ. And the LNP have safe seats in Brisbane. I live in one. What election advertising has appeared promotes Morrison and his federal MP. I can’t make sense of the strategy. Regarding Maiwar, I’ve seen so few ALP corflutes that I think the ALP are “running dead” there, I think that’s the expression. And the LNP effort in Maiwar is little better. Have the LNP given up on governing and are just protecting their flank from KAP and ON in NQ? Maybe. But Facebook, youtube, and the other socials make it hard to really know.

  27. Latte sippers exist in Queensland? I lived in South Brisbane for two years and even West End would be considered socially just regular suburbia down here in Melbourne.

    What is actually surprising is that the Qld state government elections are actually competitive. In Alberta, Canada, conservatives have almost had uninterrupted rule with the exception of one term which only happened with first past the post vote splitting on the Right.

  28. To Cameron, yeah we get it. Melbourne is cool,everybody wears black,best coffee blah blah blah. This blog is about the Queensland election between progressive ALP and conservative LNP not about how amazing everything in Melbourne is and first time I heard latte sippers was fifteen years ago in rural Tasmania so a pretty established term even in place with no coffee shops.

  29. Even down here in Adelaide we hear that the Labor candidate for Pumicestone is a brilliant, hard-working lady – future leadership material.

  30. Statistics to date per ECQ website up to 23/10/2020…
    Early votes issued 600,468
    Postal votes issued 898,062

    Early votes issued 5,561
    Postal votes issued 13,212

    Postal votes issued numbers for neighbouring electorates of Greenslopes and Springwood are similar.
    Postal vote issued numbers seem high for these suburban Brisbane electorates.
    Not sure what that will mean for Antony Green’s election night predictions.

  31. In the last few years coffee drinking in Brisbane seems to have boomed. Both local shopping centres in Mansfield have little coffee shops and there are usually people waiting, and sitting and drinking at each of them as I go to work each morning. It is not just the CBD or inner city suburbs.

    Many arrive at work with coffees they have either bought on the way, or buy at a small outlet just outside our workplace. I stick to the tea.

  32. The Courier Mail has again covered itself in glory with its front p@ge story today.

    According to the rag the labor party was in all sorts of shit after allegations were made to the AEC “ at the start of the election campaign “ that labor had misused the electoral role in 2017 by giving confidential details on the roll to those dastardly unions so they could target voters.

    It was all high dungeon with the matter being referred to the AFP etc etc.

    Late this afternoon the AEC issued a statement saying it had looked into the matter and found nothing illegal around the use of the rolls at the 2017 election by labor. The matter was now now closed.

    If that was the big last week of the campaign drive by shooting attempt by Murdoch then it has fallen flat on its face. The Courier Mail may try to pump the tyres a bit to cover their failure but the allegations have been clearly and succinctly rejected by the AEC.

  33. Re the AEC allegations,

    What I’d like to know is how the LNP got my mobile number. At the council election earlier this year and again just last week I received an SMS from the LNP urging me to vote LNP. The number was originally issued when I lived in Melbourne. How did they know I moved to Brisbane?

  34. I have the AFL final on TV and LNP are advertising about Labor’s lack of achievement WTF?. One would think the AFL final in Brisbane is not only a big achievement, but a never to be repeated achievement. Probably more chance of an FA cup final than that.So another example of LNP not hitting the mark and wasting advertising $.

  35. Madonna King has a fair analysis of the seats around Townsville:

    Townsville is the state’s most marginal ALP seat, held with a wafer-thin buffer of just 0.4 per cent.

    Two other adjoining electorates – Mundingburra and Thuringowa are also held by the ALP with tiny margins.

    Youth crime is out of control in some parts of Townsville, with data reportedly showing an increase in assaults by children of more than 70 per cent over the past couple of years.

    Crime leads the news bulletins in the north Queensland city daily.

    Just in the past couple of weeks, a teenager has been charged with rape and assault after a 66-year-old woman was attacked from behind on a walking path in Townsville.

    These incidences receive scant media coverage outside north Queensland, but they dominate the news locally.

    And locals – even if they strongly oppose the LNP and the idea of a youth curfew – want to feel safe.

  36. @PrincePlanet- I would disagree with you about the AFL GF being an achievement cause well, it’s AFL- enough Said lol

    Problem is LNP is right, not much has been done by the ALP. Problem for LNP is they won’t do much either and voters know it.

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