Ipsos has made its first entry into the Australian polling game since the 2019 election (at which it was probably the best performer of the lot, at least to the extent that it was the only one to accurately read the Labor primary vote), courtesy of New South Wales and Victorian state polls for Nine Newspapers. Unhappily though, neither features results on voting intention, though the question was clearly asked because responses are broken down by party support. In turn:
• Further evidence that Gladys Berejiklian’s travails have harmed her not at all in the view of the public, with the poll in the Sydney Morning Herald showing her with 64% approval and 16% disapproval. This compares with 22% approval and 25% disapproval for Labor’s Jodi McKay, who evidently remains a largely unknown quantity, with Berejiklian leading McKay 58-19 as preferred premier. Interestingly and unusually, opinion was also gauged on all-too-high-profile Nationals leader John Barilaro, who recorded 18% approval and 35% disapproval. Thirty-six per cent believed Berejiklian knew either a great deal or a fair amount about Daryl Maguire’s “alleged corrupt activitity”, with the same amount thinking she knew “not very much”, and 11% of trusting souls that she knew nothing at all. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Friday by phone (which I believe means live interviews, based on Ipsos’s past form) from a sample of 863.
• In Victoria, and courtesy of The Age, Ipsos records 52% approval for Daniel Andrews and 33% disapproval. Still more strikingly, Liberal leader Michael O’Brien records what may prove to be terminal ratings of 15% approval and 39% disapproval, with Andrews leading scarcely less handily than Berejiklian as preferred premier at 53-18. The poll also records 49% satisfaction and 40% dissatisfaction with the state government’s handling of the pandemic, compared with 16% and 44% for the state opposition (not featured, but probably related: opinion on the response of the news media). The state’s chief health officer, Brett Sutton, has 57% approval and 20% disapproval. The poll also finds 50% attribute responsibility for the state’s outbreak to the state government hotel quarantine program and 40% to individuals not taking the risk seriously enough, and 72% support for compulsory mask wearing, 61% for bans on regional travel and 56% for the newly relaxed 25 kilometre travel restriction. This poll was conducted Monday to Wednesday and has a sample of 858; oddly, this one was conducted online rather than by phone.
In other news, the Queensland Liberal National Party’s preselection for the November 28 federal by-election in Groom, which was the subject of my previous post on federal matters, was won by mining engineer Garth Hamilton. Party hardheads are presumably relieved that arch-conservative David van Gend was headed off in the final round of the count, by what the Toowoomba Chronicle reports was a “very close” result, although Hamilton too is seen as part of the right. Van Gend led after leading in the first round thanks to “an automatic 100 votes from the Christian lobby”, according to an LNP source quoted by the Chronicle, from a total of 290 attendees. Support then consolidated behind Hamilton with the elimination in turn of Daniel Cassidy, Andrew Meara, Sara Hales, Rebecca Vonhoff and Bryce Camm.
In a result entirely emblemetic of today’s LNP:
In other news, the Queensland Liberal National Party’s preselection for the November 28 federal by-election in Groom, which was the subject of my previous post on federal matters, was won by mining engineer Garth Hamilton
Good morning Dawn Patrollers
This Age poll indicates that the efforts of the Victorian Liberals during the second wave was largely on the nose with voters.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/liberal-voters-reject-opposition-playing-pandemic-politics-poll-finds-20201026-p568py.html
Despite pushing for the border with Queensland to reopen, the Berejiklian government is taking a “wait and see” approach to Victoria, concerned the slow re-opening is an indication that Daniel Andrews does not have full confidence in his state’s contract tracing. Will Morrison come out swinging on this?
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/coronavirus-doubts-on-contact-tracing-force-a-goslow-on-border/news-story/4531515b59e875dba500788ca9fec390
Tears, cheers and beers: Melbourne joyous as Daniel Andrews puts end to lockdown.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/oct/26/tears-cheers-and-beers-melbourne-joyous-as-daniel-andrews-puts-end-to-lockdown
Phil Coorey looks at reaction to Victoria’s lifting of restrictions and Andrews’ relationship with business.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/morrison-credits-the-people-of-victoria-not-daniel-andrews-20201026-p568q8
Daniel Andrews will be banking on the strong surge of relief among most Victorians overwhelming any criticisms and complaints about his approach, says Jennifer Hewett.
https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/andrews-banks-on-relief-overwhelming-anger-20201026-p568q0
With reference to much of what John Bolton has said, Peter Hartcher writes that history will show that Trump was the president who ended the long phase of US accommodation of the People’s Republic pf China and began a new era of confrontation. Bolton said that Australia should count itself lucky that it hasn’t been molested by Trump as other countries have.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/trump-goes-with-his-gut-even-if-the-world-beyond-the-us-goes-belly-up-20201026-p568kv.html
Stephen Duckett and Tom Crowley explain how no other place in the world has tamed a second wave this large.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/victoria/no-other-place-in-the-world-has-tamed-a-second-wave-this-large-20201026-p568s1.html
Meanwhile Alexandra Smith writes that an exclusive Herald poll reveals 63 per cent of voters are concerned NSW could follow Victoria and get smashed by a spike in COVID-19 infections.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/fears-of-a-second-covid-wave-and-another-lockdown-on-nsw-voters-minds-20201026-p568pl.html
Australia’s services exports have been smashed – and that’s not good for jobs, explains Greg Jericho.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2020/oct/27/australias-services-exports-have-been-smashed-and-thats-not-good-for-jobs
Paul Bongiorno writes that the business model for running the country, which has been holy writ for governments of all persuasions since the 1980s, is no longer fit for purpose. He says the mates rates ethos is selling Australia short. He concludes with, “Time has come for guidelines for government business enterprises and their boards and for a real integrity commission along the lines of the private member’s bill introduced into Parliament on Monday by the independent Helen Haines.”
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2020/10/27/paul-bongiorno-integrity-commission/
Former Treasury secretary Ken Henry has warned Australians’ trust in democracy is at risk if the federal government does not build institutions to restore public faith, starting with urgent work on a federal ICAC.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/he-served-labor-and-liberal-alike-now-ken-henry-wants-a-federal-icac-to-scrutinise-both-20201026-p568u9.html
The Canberra Times wonders what it will take for the major political parties to finally acquiesce to the establishment of an independent federal anti-corruption body?
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6985537/the-long-and-winding-road-to-an-icac/?cs=14258
Shivani Ghopal writes that in reality, Ms Holgate is the victim of virtue signalling, grandstanding, and a desperate attempt to leverage the “optics” to the perspective of her accuser: our Prime Minister.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/holgate-falls-victim-to-pm-s-grandstanding-20201026-p568rg.html
The Australian digs up “dirt”on Holgate, saying that Australia Post paid more than $34,000 for her nine-month stay in a Grand Hyatt suite in Melbourne.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/australia-post-foots-34000-bill-for-christine-holgates-suite-at-melbournes-grand-hyatt/news-story/0c9cfbf7418edf7733b25339ee060657
Victoria’s contact tracing system is set to undergo its biggest test yet, as the state declares itself open for business, says Aisha Dow and Liam Mannix.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/new-improved-contact-tracing-system-ready-for-its-biggest-challenge-yet-reopening-20201026-p568se.html
Nick Bonyhady tells us that taxpayers will have to cover outstanding wages worth at least $1.3 billion of almost 120,000 sacked workers if the official government forecasts for bankruptcies over coming years prove accurate.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/taxpayers-to-foot-1-3-billion-bill-from-tidal-wave-of-failed-businesses-20201026-p568q7.html
The pandemic has stemmed the flow of backpackers into Australia, creating an acute labour shortage for farmers. Urgent action is needed to avoid a horticultural disaster, explains Professor Joanna Howe in an interesting contribution.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/shortage-of-farm-workers-seeds-a-bitter-harvest-20201026-p568mq.html
Matt O’Sullivan reports that developers face millions of dollars in levies for large projects on land next to Sydney’s new airport at Badgerys Creek as desperate councils try to recover the vast cost of roads and infrastructure.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/developers-near-sydney-s-new-airport-face-multimillion-dollar-levies-20201026-p568mh.html
Lucy Cormack gets back on the icare trail telling us that it has spent more than $8 million with one executive recruiter (which previously counted a former NSW Liberal minister and major Liberal donor among its lead head hunters).
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/icare-has-spent-more-than-8-million-with-one-executive-recruiter-20201026-p568ko.html
If ever there was a time to clean out ASIC, it’s now, urges Adele Ferguson.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/crennan-first-shipton-next-deeply-flawed-asic-needs-urgent-cleanout-20201026-p568qn.html
Katharine Murphy explains how $1.1m of public money was used to fund Liberal-linked market research sent to the PM’s office.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/oct/26/scott-morrison-sent-additional-500000-worth-of-publicly-funded-covid-market-research
Gladys Berejiklian has performed well in a Herald and Nine News poll but her reputation has suffered from her relationship with Daryl Maguire says the SMH editorial that puts her on notice.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/public-forgives-the-premier-for-icac-but-she-is-on-notice-20201026-p568rp.html
Tony Walker examines what a Biden presidency could mean for Australia.
https://theconversation.com/what-would-a-biden-presidency-mean-for-australia-148516
Kate McClymont fills us in on yesterday’s Obeid trial at which family members were said to have been cocaine users.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/it-s-a-fact-says-witness-of-moses-obeid-s-cocaine-use-court-hears-20201026-p568ry.html
Massive unemployment queues and cracks in Australia’s welfare system have highlighted the need for a basic income support system, a new study has claimed.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/welfare/2020/10/26/universal-basic-income-australia/
ABC news director Gaven Morris criticised his own organisation for focusing too much on one audience at the expense of others. Was he right to do so, explores Karl Quinn.
https://www.smh.com.au/culture/tv-and-radio/does-the-abc-s-inner-city-left-wing-elite-exist-20201026-p568r0.html
The COVID-19 vaccine being developed by the University of Oxford produces an immune response in both elderly and young people and adverse reactions were lower among the elderly, British drug maker AstraZeneca says.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2020/10/26/robust-immune-responses-oxford-virus-trial-elderly/
Most Australians love the ABC and only tolerate politicians, says Jacqui Maley.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/most-australians-love-the-abc-and-only-tolerate-politicians-20201026-p568p0.html
Japan will achieve zero carbon emissions by 2050, Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga has declared, outlining an ambitious agenda as the country struggles to balance economic and pandemic concerns.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/japan-will-become-carbon-neutral-by-2050-pm-pledges-20201027-p568uh.html
According to Zoe Samios and Lisa Visentin, Australia’s media regulator, ACMA has said a draft voluntary code that the tech giants created to tackle disinformation has failed to meet expectations as Google and Facebook await legislation that will force them to pay news outlets for use of content on their websites.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/acma-tech-giants-code-to-handle-fake-news-fails-to-meet-expectations-20201026-p568oq.html
Church leaders are pleading with MPs to back the NSW government’s plans for a state-issued gambling card, warning that harm minimisation measures are grossly inadequate.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/church-leaders-urge-mps-to-back-gambling-card-20201026-p568o5.html
Matt Wade describes how two suburban regions in Sydney have been chosen to take part in a test aimed at erasing the bungling of the 2016 census.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/diverse-suburbs-60-000-sydney-households-chosen-to-test-census-20201025-p568d4.html
Any consideration of a domestic gas reserve must take into account global volatility, says a government discussion paper.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/new-caution-about-introducing-a-domestic-gas-reserve-policy-20201026-p568j7
As South Australia now knows, local jobs must be a priority in the clean energy transition, writes Tom Norton.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct/26/as-south-australia-now-knows-local-jobs-must-be-a-priority-in-the-clean-energy-transition
A $100m scheme to fund the manufacturing of products from recycled plastics and paper has not used any of its funding, nor supported any initiatives, since it was unveiled by the Morrison government ahead of the 2019 election. Yet another empty announceable!
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/oct/27/coalitions-100m-scheme-to-fund-recycled-products-has-spent-no-moneyThe man who first published the genome sequence of the coronavirus for the world to see has been named NSW Scientist of the Year, writes Kate Aubusson.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/virus-rebel-professor-edward-holmes-named-nsw-scientist-of-the-year-20201026-p568qj.html
The automotive world could be on the brink of another global recall crisis as now it is Takata’s seat belts that come under question.
https://www.drive.com.au/news/takata-seatbelt-warning-is-the-automotive-world-on-the-brink-of-another-global-recall-crisis–124451.html?trackLink=SMH0
Samantha Dick outlines the five barriers that are blocking Americans from voting in the US election.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/world/us-news/2020/10/26/us-election-voting-barriers/
A group of 10 Democratic senators, led by Minority Leader Charles Schumer, is urging Vice-President Mike Pence not to preside over the chamber for the confirmation vote of Supreme Court nominee Amy Coney Barrett, given the latest outbreak of the coronavirus at the White House.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/democrats-urge-pence-to-stay-away-due-to-latest-white-house-coronavirus-outbreak-20201027-p568uj.html
Stocks are slumping sharply on Wall Street, deepening last week’s losses as a troubling climb in coronavirus counts threatens the global economy.
https://www.theage.com.au/business/markets/wall-street-tumbles-as-virus-cases-soar-stimulus-hopes-fade-20201027-p568ur.html
Cartoon Corner
Alan Moir
David Pope
Cathy Wilcox
Matt Golding
Andrew Dyson
Johannes Leak – pathetic!
Glen Le Lievre
Dionne Gain
From the US
From the WA Police fb page:
So, one of the New Zealanders that Morrison allowed to breach the ‘NZ-NSW-NT ‘only’ Bubble’, eh? This story just goes to show what Morrison’s real motive for the travel bubble was. Get miners into WA.
LNP slashes funding on all services and regulatory bodies, reduces welfare services, doesn’t spend where promised (bushfires, etc.). Grudgingly aids businesses through Jobkeeper.
Where is all their money going?
Thanks BK for today’s Dawn Patrol. 😍😍
Grey and rainy day Newcastle possible max temp of 19℃
Overnight polls on RCP on Pennsylvania are all over the shop. Two have Biden leading by 8 and 5, one has Trump leading by 2. Have no idea who to believe.
lizzie @ #4 Tuesday, October 27th, 2020 – 7:44 am
Some executives will probably splash the cash on flash new boats for the ‘Boat Parades’ Scott Morrison will gin up for his re-election campaign, in his overtly Trumpy way.
This Victorian Anglican priest hits the nail on the head about the Victorian Liberals:
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/liberal-voters-reject-opposition-playing-pandemic-politics-poll-finds-20201026-p568py.html
More evidence for Roy Master’s theory that the Workers’ Party and the Workers’ Game have parted ways.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/footy-s-clash-of-the-titans-for-morrison-and-his-mates-20201026-p568sd.html
Morning all
Much appreciation BK for today’s news.
It’s reassuring to know that myself and my cohort weren’t the only ones that saw the fibs play politics together with their supporters in the media.
I can confidently say that if the fibs and media were supportive, Victoria may have been spared. The overt sabotage by them all makes them quislings in my view. And Victorians should never forget it.
And that goes for the feds as well.
They have been disgraceful.
c@t
It’s not an exaggeration when I say that their conduct has been traumatising.
Btw boerwar has been on my mind past few days.
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/26/politics/black-voter-turnout-election-trnd/index.html.
Black voters turning out in large numbers to voter for Biden….
Here’s a very detailed analysis of Texas voting patterns thus far and polling, by Nate Cohn:
But it’s not all bad news for Biden:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/26/upshot/texas-polls-biden-trump.html
Vic,
Yes, I worry about Boerwar too. Although the theory has been posited that he had a bad falling out with Mr Bowe and so picked up sticks.
Parts of Texas are struggling to contain COVID and hospitals are overwhelmed.
Dena Grayson, MD, PhD
@DrDenaGrayson
·
1h
Double exclamation markHospitals in #Texas are already overwhelmed with #COVID19 patients, who are being airlifted elsewhere.
If Trump keeps pushing his idiotic #HerdImmunity approach to the #coronavirus pandemic, MORE hospitals will become overwhelmed, and the death toll will SKYROCKET.Face with symbols over mouth
#VOTE
C@t
If William could confirm that, it would put my mind at ease.
So good to see the appalling conduct of the Victorian Liberals has not born fruit.
I also wonder how BB is going with the water inundation in his part of the world.
Victoria:
So weird you mention Boerwar cause I was only thinking this morning it’s been ages since he’s commented. I too hope he’s okay.
Victoria @ #19 Tuesday, October 27th, 2020 – 8:08 am
Someone else may know the full story.
Oakeshott Country @ #9 Tuesday, October 27th, 2020 – 8:00 am
A clip from that article…
Crimes.. I need to continue work on a force field to block this sort of information. Ipecac anybody?😈
Fess
Well it has unfortunately. Demanding we open up back in April and shouting that the virus can be managed without restrictions, did untold damage.
They ranted and raved that Andrews was being alarmist and a dictator for imposing restrictions back in March.
This should never be forgotten. They are quislings.
Is Nine/Fairfax trying to rewrite its publishing history following its own Ipsos poll showing great public support for Daniel Andrews? Suddenly the Premier who could do nothing right (according to the Libs and MSM) is the envy of the world.
Fess
That is interesting. Our thoughts were on the same page.
Even better to see that Jodi McKay’s polling is about where it should be. Who’d have thought Andrew Earlwood and C@tomoma that Gladys would be leading 40-37% from committed ALP voters. I’m assuming you guys are in the 37%!!!
C@t
I just hope he is okay. I always appreciated his perspective about the world and events thereof.
moderate
I guess the bar is low in NSW as far as being a corrupt premier is concerned.
I saw Peter Beattie on ABCNews and wondered why he was inserting himself into the story. It didn’t seem to be helpful to anyone.
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. I have observed GladysB quite a bit this year due to COVID.
Her body language is strong on cover up and deceit, And this was way before ICAC revelations.
I couldn’t put my finger on why I kept getting those vibes from her, considering how well the COVID outbreaks were being managed in NSW.
Citizen
They even gave freelance journo who I have been following on his blog, a write up.
He has been very critical of the media response in Victoria.
So it surprised me that the age gave him a platform. Now I know why.
IPSOS told them a different story, so they change the narrative.
Go figure.
David Milner
@DaveMilbo
·
10h
Oh yeah this is weird. The Age asked, and somehow trusted me, to write something for them today. Well done everyone (well……. most of you).
Victorians are owed a nation’s gratitude
Everything Melbourne has endured, it has done so on behalf of the rest of Australia.
theage.com.au
203
408
2.1K
https://www.google.com/search?q=
Victoria @ #26 Tuesday, October 27th, 2020 – 8:18 am
I just boiled up some batwing and eye of Newt and got a similar result.
I’ll just add some cats whisker to refine the reading.
Get back to you.
Victoria – you’d have to ask Andrew Earlwood. I think his branch of the ALP does its meetings in Long Bay.
Yay another doughnut day in Victoria.
Fingers crossed. It stays that way.
moderate
Why only ask Labor folk. What about the Liberals? They obviously are okay with having a very corrupt Premier.
Amazing figures for Andrews considering the debacle his government has caused. The stupidity of the Liberals in prosecuting against the lockdown rather than keeping their criticism on the hotel quarantine disaster has proved a dismal failure. I would say their best move would be to make Kim Wells leader.
citizen @ #24 Tuesday, October 27th, 2020 – 8:12 am
What’s interesting about this piece is the writers manage to avoid using the words Dan and Andrews.
Zero cases again for Victoria
Victoria has recorded no new COVID-19 cases and zero deaths for the second day in a row.
This brings Melbourne’s 14 day rolling average down to 2.8 cases and regional Victoria’s rolling average to 0.2 cases.
Over the past two weeks there have been six infections without a known source.
It comes after Victoria recorded zero cases yesterday for the first time since June 9.
Of course they haven’t spent any the $100 million yet, they’re waiting for an LNP maattee to put up a hand and say, “I’m into recycling because I have a recycle bin.” and then the money will swiftly flow.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/oct/27/coalitions-100m-scheme-to-fund-recycled-products-has-spent-no-money
Dawn Patrol
Vic state Poll at # 1
NSW state poll at # 22
Scrolling through i was wondering if it was going to be mentioned at all.
Hey Victoria – I can assure you the ~Libs are very very happy with Gladys B and looking forward to 2023 and a 4th term Government. I’m sure its not at all relevant that more ALP voters support Gladys than Jodie – nothing to see here, lets move on. ~I just hope the NSW ALP head office doesn’t reed the poll (they probably don’t have SMH at the local Chinese in Sussex st) and keeps Jodie in place. Gold!!
C@t, I posted this earlier on the US Election thread, but following your NYT piece on Texas, will toss it on here too – Beto explains in considerable detail what’s going on there.
—>
Beto O’Rourke talking about Texas with Brian Tyler Cohen, and the Power by People (PowerxPeople) hard slog of personal contact with Voters, noting the large cohort of young Latinos in Texas, as the prospect of Texas flipping Blue looks ever more promising, and just what that would mean, not for the next four years, but for the next decade.
30 mins
The interview just went up, but he mentions 11 days till election day, so I’m not certain just when it was recorded.
https://youtu.be/Chpj0MP_Guc
Those who want to criticise Dan Andrews (Leigh Sales, Lib supporters etc) are saying that he didn’t open up earlier because he had no confidence in the contact tracing. Or that he was ‘unable to make a decision’ (e.g. Taylormade). All the journo questions yesterday were on the same lines, criticising Vic in comparison with NSW, even though some of their ‘facts’ were wrong. Now Peter Beattie has joined the chorus.
It’s true that Vic was slow in getting control of the tracing because the first outbreaks were so large and spread widely (unlike NSW). However, they have obviously refined their methods and are now confident that they will be successful in containing outbreaks. Pity the media continues to pour doubt.
Lizzie
“It’s true that Vic was slow in getting control of the tracing because the first outbreaks were so large and spread widely (unlike NSW)”
To the extent this matters now, I don’t think this is right. Wasn’t there a difference in the contract tracing systems operating in the relatively quiet period between May and June which left Victoria vulnerable?
Gladys is STILL not opening up the border with Victoria. Apparently she won’t make a decision for some weeks.
Cue Scott Morrison, Josh Frydenberg, Greg Hunt, Andrew Bolt, Peta Credlin, Blaxendale……
lizzie @ #29 Tuesday, October 27th, 2020 – 7:18 am
Beattie has never been able to resist a camera or a microphone. Nothing more to it than that
moderate @ #29 Tuesday, October 27th, 2020 – 8:13 am
I’m surprised you didn’t venture the slimy thought that the 40% Labor supporters of Gladys must be the ones who are comfortable with corruption? 😐
Lizzie
Spot on. Could you imagine if Dan Andrews had been implicated in just one of the things that GladysB has actually done.
Moderate https://www.pollbludger.net/2020/10/27/ipsos-state-polling-and-groom-preselection/#comment-3500985 – Why so sure GB is in the clear? What if ICAC recall her over McGuire? There’s also the grants scandal to fully run its course. And no I am not politically aligned I just don’t like corruption. I do worry who would replace her though just as I did when the Barry O’Farrell Grange episode occurred.