Ipsos state polling and Groom preselection

The LNP settles on a candidate for the Groom by-election, as what doesn’t kill Gladys Berejiklian and Daniel Andrews only makes them stronger.

Ipsos has made its first entry into the Australian polling game since the 2019 election (at which it was probably the best performer of the lot, at least to the extent that it was the only one to accurately read the Labor primary vote), courtesy of New South Wales and Victorian state polls for Nine Newspapers. Unhappily though, neither features results on voting intention, though the question was clearly asked because responses are broken down by party support. In turn:

• Further evidence that Gladys Berejiklian’s travails have harmed her not at all in the view of the public, with the poll in the Sydney Morning Herald showing her with 64% approval and 16% disapproval. This compares with 22% approval and 25% disapproval for Labor’s Jodi McKay, who evidently remains a largely unknown quantity, with Berejiklian leading McKay 58-19 as preferred premier. Interestingly and unusually, opinion was also gauged on all-too-high-profile Nationals leader John Barilaro, who recorded 18% approval and 35% disapproval. Thirty-six per cent believed Berejiklian knew either a great deal or a fair amount about Daryl Maguire’s “alleged corrupt activitity”, with the same amount thinking she knew “not very much”, and 11% of trusting souls that she knew nothing at all. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Friday by phone (which I believe means live interviews, based on Ipsos’s past form) from a sample of 863.

• In Victoria, and courtesy of The Age, Ipsos records 52% approval for Daniel Andrews and 33% disapproval. Still more strikingly, Liberal leader Michael O’Brien records what may prove to be terminal ratings of 15% approval and 39% disapproval, with Andrews leading scarcely less handily than Berejiklian as preferred premier at 53-18. The poll also records 49% satisfaction and 40% dissatisfaction with the state government’s handling of the pandemic, compared with 16% and 44% for the state opposition (not featured, but probably related: opinion on the response of the news media). The state’s chief health officer, Brett Sutton, has 57% approval and 20% disapproval. The poll also finds 50% attribute responsibility for the state’s outbreak to the state government hotel quarantine program and 40% to individuals not taking the risk seriously enough, and 72% support for compulsory mask wearing, 61% for bans on regional travel and 56% for the newly relaxed 25 kilometre travel restriction. This poll was conducted Monday to Wednesday and has a sample of 858; oddly, this one was conducted online rather than by phone.

In other news, the Queensland Liberal National Party’s preselection for the November 28 federal by-election in Groom, which was the subject of my previous post on federal matters, was won by mining engineer Garth Hamilton. Party hardheads are presumably relieved that arch-conservative David van Gend was headed off in the final round of the count, by what the Toowoomba Chronicle reports was a “very close” result, although Hamilton too is seen as part of the right. Van Gend led after leading in the first round thanks to “an automatic 100 votes from the Christian lobby”, according to an LNP source quoted by the Chronicle, from a total of 290 attendees. Support then consolidated behind Hamilton with the elimination in turn of Daniel Cassidy, Andrew Meara, Sara Hales, Rebecca Vonhoff and Bryce Camm.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,164 comments on “Ipsos state polling and Groom preselection”

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  1. poroti @ #2147 Sunday, November 1st, 2020 – 9:47 pm

    😆 SAD taking the Qld. results well . Paul Murray banners “Qld Election: Stockholm Syndrome ?” , “Covid Hysteria : It Worked”

    Problem with that line of reasoning is, what about the Liberal states of Tasmania, SA and NSW? I guess it’s okay with Paul Murray for them to trade on their COVID-19 success stories at their next elections?

  2. Christ, am I glad I have given up the fags!

    Apart from enjoying much better health (day-to-day quality of life-wize at least), the money saved is astonishing.

    The fags I used to smoke (B&H, 25s) are now $54.95 at a discount seller (local Coles supermarket).

    That’s $385 per week, or just a tad over $20,000 a year that I’d be paying *if* I hadn’t given them up.


    I find it hard to believe anyone could justify that kind of outlay, especially the predominantly “lower income” model of your “typical smoker” nowadays.

    As to vaping, I am now down to almost nothing in my vaping nicotine dose.

    When I started I was on 8ml of nicotine per 100ml of e-juice. I quickly got this down to 6ml then 4ml, where I stayed for 12 months. Two months ago I dropped to 2ml per 100ml, and now I am on 1ml per 100ml. That’s almost zero, and will be soon, I hope.

    I am not vaping more frequently to compensate for the lower dose, either. When the Lying Hunt threatened to regulate nicotine vaping a few months back I purchased three 200ml bottles of concentrate. At 1ml usage of nicotine every two week, that’s 23 years’ worth of nicotine concentrate I purchased… by which time of course I’ll either be dead of old age, or will have given up altogether. Vaping has been a positive boon to this old ciggie addict. I didn’t think anything would get me off them.

    That 23 years’ supply of nicotine cost me the princely sum of $120. No wonder Big Tobacco wants to first take over the industry, then get their mates in the Liberal Party to regulate vaping. They can split the difference!

    By the way, did anyone notice Trump wanted to regulate vaping? Now why would a psychopath like that care about Public Health? Let me see…

  3. Trump’s “tan” makes him look like he’s been sleeping rough. Who sprays it on? Obviously a secret Biden supporter!

  4. I kind of feel sad for the reactionaries because all their dreams are slowly turning to dust just when they thought they had won. Paul Murray is just pathetic and Wednesday night could see him explode at the reality that he picked a political loser. The guy needs to learn he doesn’t have much influence.

  5. Morning all. Gladys Berejiklian has really hoped on board the Scomo bus in criticising other States (Qld and WA) about Covid19 and interstate travel policy. She said this:
    “ “I get really frustrated and annoyed when WA and Queensland expect us to process all of their citizens, which we do gladly, but then think of all these excuses as to why New South Wales residents can’t move freely into their states,” Ms Berejiklian said.

    “You can’t have it both ways.”

    Problem is, honest Gladys, that you are arguing a false equivalence. Repatriated overseas travellers have gone through a two week quarantine before moving interstate. The free interstate movements Gladys is seeking would not be quarantined. Perfectly understandable why Qld and WA would permit one and not the other. Likewise Liberal States SA and Tassie have similar restrictions, but get no criticism from Gladys.

    Gladys has gone full political on Covid. Obviously she failed to read the election results on the weekend.

  6. Cat

    Further to your story on Paul Murray, SA and Qld have had virtually identical border travel policy throughout the Covid pandemic. (And it has worked well in both cases, to give SA premier Steve Marshall his due). Massive double standard to criticise one and not the other.

    Remember when the national cabinet was going to ensure all state and Commonwealth followed the medical advice? Quite a while since we have seen the Commonwealth CMO stand up in a press conference and say what he thought we should be doing. Happy days back then.

  7. 2 days to go USA

    Real Clear Politics average Biden 7.8% and swing states 3.1%.

    538 Biden 7.9%
    Swing states: , Minnesota 8.7%, Michigan 8.5%, Wisconsin 8.0%, Nevada 6.0%, Pennsylvania 4.9% (Biden wins election with those states) – then Arizona 2.9%, North Carolina 1.9%, Florida 1.8%, Georgia 1.0%

    Total Early Votes: 93,131,017 • In-Person Votes: 34,004,455 • Mail Ballots Returned: 59,126,562
    Nationally, voters have cast 67.6% of the total votes counted in the 2016 general election.

  8. Soc,
    #GuiltyGladys would be better advised to keep her trap shut and to stop playing politics with COVID-19. She is being caught out on an almost daily basis doing dodgy things:

    The NSW Premier’s department paid above commercial rates for a $1 million eight-week contract for a COVID-19 economic plan that was awarded to a consulting group without going to tender.

    Boston Consulting Group was awarded the lucrative contract earlier this year “without a competitive process” to help the government “understand the changing shape of the post-COVID economy”.

    …The consulting group won the contract a day after writing to the department’s secretary Tim Reardon. The group’s April 20 letter said “committing effort now to develop ways to restart and rebuild the economy, whilst balancing health and societal needs, is going to be imperative”.

    Details of the contract, released to NSW Labor under freedom of information laws, reveal the consultants did not accept the “capped rates, capped expenses, or agreed scheme discounts” which would usually prompt the requirement for two other quotes.

    …Labor’s Treasury spokesman Walt Secord, who obtained the document under freedom of information laws, said the consultants’ fees would have been better spent on specific pandemic support.

    Mr Secord said under the $1.078 million contract, the four consultants were paid $134,750 a week for eight weeks, or almost $6740 per person per day.

    “This is the kind of work which should be carried out by NSW Treasury and government officials rather than funnelling a contract to outside highly paid consultants,” Mr Secord said.


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