Ipsos state polling and Groom preselection

The LNP settles on a candidate for the Groom by-election, as what doesn’t kill Gladys Berejiklian and Daniel Andrews only makes them stronger.

Ipsos has made its first entry into the Australian polling game since the 2019 election (at which it was probably the best performer of the lot, at least to the extent that it was the only one to accurately read the Labor primary vote), courtesy of New South Wales and Victorian state polls for Nine Newspapers. Unhappily though, neither features results on voting intention, though the question was clearly asked because responses are broken down by party support. In turn:

• Further evidence that Gladys Berejiklian’s travails have harmed her not at all in the view of the public, with the poll in the Sydney Morning Herald showing her with 64% approval and 16% disapproval. This compares with 22% approval and 25% disapproval for Labor’s Jodi McKay, who evidently remains a largely unknown quantity, with Berejiklian leading McKay 58-19 as preferred premier. Interestingly and unusually, opinion was also gauged on all-too-high-profile Nationals leader John Barilaro, who recorded 18% approval and 35% disapproval. Thirty-six per cent believed Berejiklian knew either a great deal or a fair amount about Daryl Maguire’s “alleged corrupt activitity”, with the same amount thinking she knew “not very much”, and 11% of trusting souls that she knew nothing at all. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Friday by phone (which I believe means live interviews, based on Ipsos’s past form) from a sample of 863.

• In Victoria, and courtesy of The Age, Ipsos records 52% approval for Daniel Andrews and 33% disapproval. Still more strikingly, Liberal leader Michael O’Brien records what may prove to be terminal ratings of 15% approval and 39% disapproval, with Andrews leading scarcely less handily than Berejiklian as preferred premier at 53-18. The poll also records 49% satisfaction and 40% dissatisfaction with the state government’s handling of the pandemic, compared with 16% and 44% for the state opposition (not featured, but probably related: opinion on the response of the news media). The state’s chief health officer, Brett Sutton, has 57% approval and 20% disapproval. The poll also finds 50% attribute responsibility for the state’s outbreak to the state government hotel quarantine program and 40% to individuals not taking the risk seriously enough, and 72% support for compulsory mask wearing, 61% for bans on regional travel and 56% for the newly relaxed 25 kilometre travel restriction. This poll was conducted Monday to Wednesday and has a sample of 858; oddly, this one was conducted online rather than by phone.

In other news, the Queensland Liberal National Party’s preselection for the November 28 federal by-election in Groom, which was the subject of my previous post on federal matters, was won by mining engineer Garth Hamilton. Party hardheads are presumably relieved that arch-conservative David van Gend was headed off in the final round of the count, by what the Toowoomba Chronicle reports was a “very close” result, although Hamilton too is seen as part of the right. Van Gend led after leading in the first round thanks to “an automatic 100 votes from the Christian lobby”, according to an LNP source quoted by the Chronicle, from a total of 290 attendees. Support then consolidated behind Hamilton with the elimination in turn of Daniel Cassidy, Andrew Meara, Sara Hales, Rebecca Vonhoff and Bryce Camm.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,164 comments on “Ipsos state polling and Groom preselection”

Comments Page 43 of 44
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  2. citizen @ #2089 Sunday, November 1st, 2020 – 10:51 am

    Weasel Hunt tries to associate himself and the Feds with the good news today. As expected, absolutely no acknowledgement of the hard work by all States and Territories.

    Australia has recorded no locally acquired transmission of COVID-19 over the past 24-hour reporting period for the first time in almost five months.

    Federal Health Minister Greg Hunt says the National Incident Centre has advised it’s the first time the country has achieved the feat since June 9.

    On social media, Mr Hunt has praised health care workers and the Australian public for the milestone.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-01/coronavirus-australia-live-updates-covid19-latest-mental-health/12836336

    Obviously adding 9 zeros together is beyond Hunt’s capabilities.

  3. lizzie @ #2095 Sunday, November 1st, 2020 – 12:08 pm

    I doubt whether any Premiers are bothering to listen to the little Hunt as he’s been playing the same tune for months.

    Federal Health Minister Greg Hunt says Australia is on track for internal borders to be lifted by Christmas, as the country recorded zero community transmissions for the first time since June 9.

    Mr Hunt said free movement between Queensland and NSW should occur “as soon as possible”, saying there was a mounting medical case for the state to open its border to greater Sydney.

    Yep, he totally ignores his areas responsibility and plays politics with those of others.

  4. Hunt cant take any credit for the suppression of the virus.His boss never wanted the borders closed in the first place.

  5. State leaders resist Morrison government push to reopen borders

    And the date ?
    Tue 19 May 2020
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/may/19/state-leaders-resist-morrison-government-push-to-reopen-borders-closed-by-coronavirus
    Back in March ?

    In Australia, Prime Minister Scott Morrison has mentioned “issues of herd immunity” when saying schools would be kept open.
    SBS News looks at the controversy around herd immunity and COVID-19. .’
    Former president of the Australian Medical Association and ex-federal MP Kerryn Phelps has been particularly vocal in her opposition to the idea………………….Professor Phelps said she “hoped the [Australian] government has stopped thinking in that regard ………………

    https://www.sbs.com.au/news/why-a-herd-immunity-approach-in-the-fight-against-covid-19-is-so-controversial
    Thank Dog that Ghunt and Scrott were not in charge.

  7. Pure exaggeration. Scary Pete.

    7NEWS Brisbane
    @7NewsBrisbane
    ·
    2h
    .
    @PeterDutton_MP
    has described the election results as ‘disappointing’. “If we’re remaining locked up for the next 12 months, Queensland will go broke.”

  10. Australia’s carbon-belching future is surely being sealed by the Coalition with the acquiescence of Labor. As the world turns from coal, gas is almost as toxic for the climate. Callum Foote reports on Labor’s capture by the gas lobby capture while Angus Taylor appoints Macquarie’s Shemara Wikramanayake and former Origin chief Grant King to advise on his Energy Roadmap even though they are smack-bang in the middle of a billion-dollar gas deal.

    https://www.michaelwest.com.au/anthony-albanese-coy-on-gas-as-scott-morrison-locks-in-australias-fossil-fuel-future/

    Hundreds of communities across Australia are hurtling towards the coal and gas cliff as politicians obsess over Cartier watches and pandemic politics. Michael West reports on the spectre of plunging demand for fossil fuels and the savage effects it will reap on regional communities.

    https://www.michaelwest.com.au/asleep-at-the-wheel-why-australias-emissions-policy-debacle-puts-hundreds-of-communities-at-risk/

    Australian voters need to turf out the LibLab fossil fuel cartel that has taken control of our parliament.

  12. Sheoakbloke
    @Sheoakbloke1
    ·
    7m
    On #ABC they’re referring to it as “A truly disappointing election result for the LNP”
    I really don’t know what they expected from wheeling out the corpse of Campbell Newman and having #ScottyFromHillsong reanimate it. The LNP electoral wet dream is now dead buried & cremated

  15. laughtong @ #2101 Sunday, November 1st, 2020 – 3:38 pm

    This was mentioned in passing earlier.

    Big tin ear from the relevant minister

    https://www.lindaburney.com.au/media-releases/2020/10/29/minister-decides-to-make-cashless-debit-card-trial-permanent-without-reading-25m-evaluation?fbclid=IwAR3Bbo0POxWsQi_xu9eGBHHUSiLgPDN3H2qXswG8ltW-KD0vDcfigun-cgI

    This is the way for Labor to win back poor rural Queensland seats. Promise to reverse the Cashless Debit Card. The Coalition can scream about ‘drug addicts’ and ‘gambling on the pokies’, all they want, Labor just has to say they will take a medical, Harm Minimisation approach if necessary but no blanket approach.

  21. Alexander Downer with relevance deprivation syndrome. Who cares what he thinks.

    Trump needs to be defeated end of story.

    I think the American voters understand that and will deliver the result the world needs.

  23. Alexander Downer is backing Trump. Says he will be good for Australia.

    Interesting – trump’s record is of dumping on and backstabbing allies, including long standing loyal ones.

    Keating got it right about downer years ago, wtte “the idiot son of the SA aristocracy”……its still on Youtube somewhere.

  24. Easiest test team to pick in yonks.

    Pucovski
    Warner
    Labuschagne
    Smith
    Head
    Green
    Paine
    Cummins
    Starc
    Hazelwood
    Lyon
    Pattinson (12th man if his body has not crumbled again)

    With Hohns and Langer doing it for their mates, Green won’t be picked so as to open up the path for Mitch Marsh to play the fourth test when Wade disappoints and Burns, who is really just Shane Watson without the review fetish, will still be given a run.

  26. Alexander Downer is backing Trump. Says he will be good for Australia.

    Lest we forget… Downer was the one who got the ball rolling in the Mueller investigation by tittle-tattling about his drinkies with Papadopoulos.

    A little bit of crawling to Trump could do no harm.

  27. Hunt cant take any credit for the suppression of the virus.

    ______________________________

    They will always take credit for the achievements of others and blame others for their own failures. It’s the Liberal way.

  29. Greg Norman backing Trump.
    Won’t criticise his handling of the pandemic in America.

    “Tell me one other President who’s had to deal with it.”

  31. Check out the timing for this guys book and topic. A podcast from March.
    .
    .
    Professor Steven Taylor is an Australian academic who’s been living in Canada since 1988. On 1 December 2019, just a few weeks before the full scale of the novel coronavirus outbreak became apparent in China, he released his book The Psychology of Pandemics: Preparing for the Next Global Outbreak of Infectious Disease.
    https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/saturday/audio/2018739528/steven-taylor-the-psychology-of-pandemics

  32. Rhwombat

    The point is of course that Trump isn’t ‘dealing with it’.

    Norman is afraid that Biden will take America to the left. Figures.

  33. poroti @ #2135 Sunday, November 1st, 2020 – 7:07 pm

    Check out the timing for this guys book and topic. A podcast from March.
    .
    .
    Professor Steven Taylor is an Australian academic who’s been living in Canada since 1988. On 1 December 2019, just a few weeks before the full scale of the novel coronavirus outbreak became apparent in China, he released his book The Psychology of Pandemics: Preparing for the Next Global Outbreak of Infectious Disease.
    https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/saturday/audio/2018739528/steven-taylor-the-psychology-of-pandemics

    Steven is at UBC. He had a bit to do with the fear and loathing that devastated the Ontario Health System in response to the 2003 SARS outbreak. The book undercooked this pandemic.

  34. Isn’t Greg Norman the golfer that left Australia when Whitlam won,didn’t want to have anything to do with lefty Australia. When it comes to political stupidity the man has form. He must be well in his 80’s by now.

    Downer and Hockey have a solid reason to fear Biden. The Liberals have pretty much adopted the alternate reality the Republicans are peddling. If it all falls in a heap what are they to do?

    Hopefully the Queensland election is the least of their disappointments.

  36. The real cognitive dissonance in Australia with our right wing partisan hacks.
    Is that we are supposed to take them seriously in their support for Trump and the shit show he has created in the USA with respect to the pandemic.

    And at the same time, pummell Andrews for all the effort he has done in suppressing the virus.

    They are beneath contempt.

  37. No Jack Nicklaus was American, I’m sure it was Greg Norman. That makes him the same age as me. That makes his tantrum worse. The year Whitlam came to power was the year my marble went into the Lottery you did not want to win.

  38. Frednk

    It could simply be they are both professional golfers and support Trump cos they consider him one of their tribe. Lol!

  39. Bushfire Bill @ #2126 Sunday, November 1st, 2020 – 6:39 pm

    Alexander Downer is backing Trump. Says he will be good for Australia.

    Lest we forget… Downer was the one who got the ball rolling in the Mueller investigation by tittle-tattling about his drinkies with Papadopoulos.

    A little bit of crawling to Trump could do no harm.

    ____________________________________________________________
    I think it may have been mild mannered Ralph Willis who dubbed then LOTO Alexander Downer as “the Christmas turkey”. Good putdowns stand the test of time!

  40. Conservative politician endorses conservative candidate. Colour me shocked.

    Still, I remember how much of a big boy Downer felt like when he got to sit next to Condoleezza Rice in very very important meetings back in the day. Maybe he’s feeling some misty nostalgia.

  41. Victoria @ #2138 Sunday, November 1st, 2020 – 8:07 pm

    Frednk

    It could simply be they are both professional golfers and support Trump cos they consider him one of their tribe. Lol!

    ____________________________________________________________
    I can’t attest to their accuracy, but reports of Trump cheating at golf are ll over the net. That should not sit well with any professional golfer. Greg Norman is a golfing legend. He’s also a republican and has a personal relationship with Trump:
    https://www.news.com.au/sport/golf/greg-norman-says-donald-trump-has-done-a-phenomenal-job/news-story/1680ce00942f6cfbafb48636356941da
    https://www.news.com.au/world/north-america/greg-norman-gives-friend-donald-trump-some-advice-on-being-us-president/news-story/c5f883fead27bdbc323eeadb8bb2a49f

  43. Total Early Votes: 92,038,417 • In-Person Votes: 33,141,215 • Mail Ballots Returned: 58,897,202

    Nationally, voters have cast 66.8% of the total votes counted in the 2016 general election


  44. Taylormade says:
    Sunday, November 1, 2020 at 8:54 pm

    Frednk
    To save embarrassment give up on the golf posts.

    Memory is such an unreliable thing, I can’t find are reference so I think you might be right.

  46. Aqualung
    With all the O-O days and low numbers the only people who would give a rats would be the bats in the Sky After Dark belfry.

  47. 😆 SAD taking the Qld. results well . Paul Murray banners “Qld Election: Stockholm Syndrome ?” , “Covid Hysteria : It Worked”

  48. I know Poroti. Just wondering how far up the fake news meter it ranked.
    Is that the correct spelling of meter in this case?

  50. ”Alexander Downer is backing Trump. Says he will be good for Australia”

    Most of the Liberal Party are hoping for a Trump victory, not least the PM, together with their media and business allies.

    It just shows how right-wing the Liberal party has become that a malevolent buffoon and likely criminal like Trump is considered remotely acceptable, let alone cheered on. They are happy to overlook his criminal negligence in dealing with the Pandemic. They accept his lies. They accept his racism. They see a future where Australia is Mini Me to Trumpist America’s Dr Evil.

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