Ipsos state polling and Groom preselection

The LNP settles on a candidate for the Groom by-election, as what doesn’t kill Gladys Berejiklian and Daniel Andrews only makes them stronger.

Ipsos has made its first entry into the Australian polling game since the 2019 election (at which it was probably the best performer of the lot, at least to the extent that it was the only one to accurately read the Labor primary vote), courtesy of New South Wales and Victorian state polls for Nine Newspapers. Unhappily though, neither features results on voting intention, though the question was clearly asked because responses are broken down by party support. In turn:

• Further evidence that Gladys Berejiklian’s travails have harmed her not at all in the view of the public, with the poll in the Sydney Morning Herald showing her with 64% approval and 16% disapproval. This compares with 22% approval and 25% disapproval for Labor’s Jodi McKay, who evidently remains a largely unknown quantity, with Berejiklian leading McKay 58-19 as preferred premier. Interestingly and unusually, opinion was also gauged on all-too-high-profile Nationals leader John Barilaro, who recorded 18% approval and 35% disapproval. Thirty-six per cent believed Berejiklian knew either a great deal or a fair amount about Daryl Maguire’s “alleged corrupt activitity”, with the same amount thinking she knew “not very much”, and 11% of trusting souls that she knew nothing at all. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Friday by phone (which I believe means live interviews, based on Ipsos’s past form) from a sample of 863.

• In Victoria, and courtesy of The Age, Ipsos records 52% approval for Daniel Andrews and 33% disapproval. Still more strikingly, Liberal leader Michael O’Brien records what may prove to be terminal ratings of 15% approval and 39% disapproval, with Andrews leading scarcely less handily than Berejiklian as preferred premier at 53-18. The poll also records 49% satisfaction and 40% dissatisfaction with the state government’s handling of the pandemic, compared with 16% and 44% for the state opposition (not featured, but probably related: opinion on the response of the news media). The state’s chief health officer, Brett Sutton, has 57% approval and 20% disapproval. The poll also finds 50% attribute responsibility for the state’s outbreak to the state government hotel quarantine program and 40% to individuals not taking the risk seriously enough, and 72% support for compulsory mask wearing, 61% for bans on regional travel and 56% for the newly relaxed 25 kilometre travel restriction. This poll was conducted Monday to Wednesday and has a sample of 858; oddly, this one was conducted online rather than by phone.

In other news, the Queensland Liberal National Party’s preselection for the November 28 federal by-election in Groom, which was the subject of my previous post on federal matters, was won by mining engineer Garth Hamilton. Party hardheads are presumably relieved that arch-conservative David van Gend was headed off in the final round of the count, by what the Toowoomba Chronicle reports was a “very close” result, although Hamilton too is seen as part of the right. Van Gend led after leading in the first round thanks to “an automatic 100 votes from the Christian lobby”, according to an LNP source quoted by the Chronicle, from a total of 290 attendees. Support then consolidated behind Hamilton with the elimination in turn of Daniel Cassidy, Andrew Meara, Sara Hales, Rebecca Vonhoff and Bryce Camm.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,164 comments on “Ipsos state polling and Groom preselection”

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  1. Steve777:

    Sunday, November 1, 2020 at 10:00 am
    [‘This time, instead of flipping the result, maybe all the money, the megaphones and acres of newsprint changed a Labor landslide into a comfortable win.’]

    That’s another way to put it but a 5% swing is quite impressive, which could result in Labor reaching 52 seats in a 93 seat chamber – a handsome majority.

  2. lizzie @ #2049 Sunday, November 1st, 2020 – 10:08 am

    Eddy Jokovich
    @EddyJokovich
    ·
    4m
    Nobody asked how the Queensland result will affect the federal Liberal Party? Or why Morrison is nowhere to be seen when the LNP has an election loss? #insiders

    Speers doing his duty?

    Morrison is being seen by more and more people as an empty suit with just a sharp marketing tongue.

    A quality opposition would have little trouble in bringing a swift end to his reign.

  4. lizzie @ #2041 Sunday, November 1st, 2020 – 9:58 am

    Rex and P1

    The point is that this kind of relentless detail is rarely demanded from the actual government.

    As I have said before (actually, several times) … these are the current rules of the game.

    Play by them, or change them, or give up your seat (and your paycheck) to someone who can.

  5. Rex Douglas @ #2052 Sunday, November 1st, 2020 – 10:12 am

    lizzie @ #2049 Sunday, November 1st, 2020 – 10:08 am

    Eddy Jokovich
    @EddyJokovich
    ·
    4m
    Nobody asked how the Queensland result will affect the federal Liberal Party? Or why Morrison is nowhere to be seen when the LNP has an election loss? #insiders

    Speers doing his duty?

    Morrison is being seen by more and more people as an empty suit with just a sharp marketing tongue.

    A quality opposition would have little trouble in bringing a swift end to his reign.

    My kingdom for a quality opposition.

  6. Good grief I need to go have a shower.

    Just watching Outsiders on Sky News and I’m speechless. The brave Rita and James went to a conservative town which votes 80% Trump. The conservatives are focussed on the illegals and opening economy. The weird thing is they all wear masks and yet their Commander in Chief doesn’t.

  8. Morrison sent out Littleproud to “accept” the findings of the Bushfire Commission. I wonder what little stunt he will employ this week to avoid tackling the recommendations himself.

  9. lizzie @ #2049 Sunday, November 1st, 2020 – 10:08 am

    Eddy Jokovich
    @EddyJokovich
    ·
    4m
    Nobody asked how the Queensland result will affect the federal Liberal Party? Or why Morrison is nowhere to be seen when the LNP has an election loss? #insiders

    Speers doing his duty?

    Scotty from Hillsong too busy speaking in tongues today to be seen speaking in English in order to congratulate Anastacia Palaszczjuk on her win in Queensland.

  10. So apparently expensive watches trumps the head of ASIC claiming money he wasn’t entitled to.

    You’d think the media would be up to coping with diversions by now.

  11. At the end of the day Niki Savva is just another Liberal apologist.

    Peter Murphy
    @PeterWMurphy1

    Australian Dictionary
    “heartfelt” – an unhinged vile angry rant to score political points. As in “Josh Frydenberg’s criticism of Dan Andrews was heartfelt.” #Insiders #COVID19Vic #springst

  14. Confessions @ #1999 Sunday, November 1st, 2020 – 8:06 am

    The only way Trump will be re-elected is because of their undemocratic electoral college.

    Or the courts. Don’t forget the courts.

    Al Franken made the same observations as Savva on Real Time yesterday. It’s going to be extremely difficult, if not impossible to reunify the country if Biden wins.

    In comparison to what? Another Trump “victory” where he trails by millions of votes is going to unify?

    But in principle yes, if the MAGA zealots don’t want national unity there won’t be any. Can’t force people to unify against their will.

  16. Dr. Tony Fauci comes clean on Trump’s pandemic response: America ‘could not possibly be positioned more poorly’

    The nation’s leading infectious-disease expert gave a blunt assessment’s of President Donald Trump’s COVID-19 failures in a bombshell new interview with The Washington Post.

    “We’re in for a whole lot of hurt. It’s not a good situation,” Fauci told the newspaper. “All the stars are aligned in the wrong place as you go into the fall and winter season, with people congregating at home indoors. You could not possibly be positioned more poorly.”

    Fauci warned America could exceed 100,000 new coronavirus cases a day and called for an “abrupt change” in responding to the pandemic.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2020/10/dr-tony-fauci-comes-clean-on-trumps-response-america-could-not-possibly-be-positioned-more-poorly/

  20. Massive Typhoon heading towards philippines:
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/biggest-typhoon-of-the-year-to-hit-philippines-one-million-evacuated-20201101-p56afz.html,

    Recent Earthquake in Greece/Turkey:
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-31/earthquake-death-toll-reaches-28-in-turkey,-greece/12835876

    Recent Storms in QLD/NSW with massive hails, and also cyclone season in USA.

    Finally we have COVID19 still raring it’s ugly head in UK, Europe and USA.

  21. The US is really stepping up to the plate.

    First Brazil threatened its domination and now with India closing in rapidly, they have once again responded to the challenge. 🙁

    edit: smiley face to sad one.

  22. ”Morrison sent out Littleproud to “accept” the findings of the Bushfire Commission. I wonder what little stunt he will employ this week to avoid tackling the recommendations himself.”

    If anyone mentions the impact of global heating he’ll change the subject to helicopters, hazard reduction or re-announce bushfire relief funds (but not allocate them).

  23. Confessions @ #1987 Sunday, November 1st, 2020 – 5:43 am

    Thanks BK.

    There have been reports of ousting Craig Kelly at the last election and the one before that, but he always prevails thanks to the intervention of the party leader. I expect the same thing will happen this time.

    I expect a different outcome. Next time Kelly will be lucky to attract a primary vote in the 20’s. He will not be a member of the next parliament, no matter who intervenes on his behalf. 😉

  24. I’ve obviously missed something. What has Craig Kelly done that 30000 bogan Commodore and Land Cruiser drivers will abandon him. ?

  27. @jaquix173
    Today:
    Victoria announces $45m for a big program to get kids active in sport and outdoor activities.
    Morrison announces $10 million “boost” to mental health for Australia. Just over $1 million per state? Pathetic.cheapskate.

  28. Kevin Bonham
    @kevinbonham
    ·
    9m
    A reader has suggested an interesting possible factor in the LNP’s conspicuously poor performances in Bundaberg and Hervey Bay – these are trial sites for the cashless debit card.

  30. lizzie @ #2078 Sunday, November 1st, 2020 – 12:35 pm

    Kevin Bonham
    @kevinbonham
    ·
    9m
    A reader has suggested an interesting possible factor in the LNP’s conspicuously poor performances in Bundaberg and Hervey Bay – these are trial sites for the cashless debit card.

    A good suggestion given that the Minister has just made the trial permanent without even bothering to read the extensive report. Probably telling her what she does not want to hear.

  33. Many reasons for Laborites to be feeling a little more optimistic at this stage – not least amongst them the Qld victory in the face of the News Corp onslaught. Congratulations Qld Labor.
    Federally, Labor have set a few traps that the PM has stumbled into, e.g. Australia Post. They’ve also planted a few Easter eggs, e.g., childcare. Labor appears to be strategizing better than it has for a while.
    It will fascinating to see if Rudd’s News Corp petition / media bias resonates in the lead up to a federal election issue and how it may play out. Media ownership?

  34. These people are dangerous and insane! Criminally insane!

    A Biden campaign event was cancelled in Texas on Friday after reportedly coming under threat from armed Trump supporters, days after the president’s eldest son called on his father’s supporters to “get out there, have some fun”.

    Don Jr posted a video earlier this week ahead of Democratic VP candidate, Kamala Harris, holding an event in Texas and urged his father’s supporters to show up.

    He said: “It’d be great if you guys would all get together, head down to McAllen and give Kamala Harris a nice Trump Train welcome.”

    “Get out there, have some fun, enjoy it,” Mr Trump continued.

    “Don’t forget to vote and bring all of your friends. Let’s show them how strong Texas still is as Trump country. Get out there, guys.”

    While Senator Harris’s appearance went ahead as planned, local Texas Democrats said they were forced to pull the plug on a gathering scheduled to take place in Pflugerville, a small city about 17 miles north of Austin, due to “security reasons”.

    “Unfortunately, pro-Trump protesters have escalated well beyond safe limits. Sorry to all who looked forward to this fun event,” tweeted Sheryl Cole, a Democrat in the Texas House of Representatives.

    “This is a first for me,” she added.

    According to local Democrats, armed Trump supporters had been harassing the Biden campaign bus on the highway and allegedly rammed volunteer vehicles. Videos were posted on social media of the incident.

    Rafael Anchía, a member of the Texas House of Representatives, said some of the agitators had been carrying weapons.

    “Armed Trump trolls harassing Biden Bus on I-35, ramming volunteer vehicles & blocking traffic for 40 mins,” he tweeted.

    “At least the Trump hearse is appropriate given the 200K+ Americans who have died due to his incompetence,” he added, referencing a vehicle driven by Mr Trump’s supporters to antagonise the bus.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-election-2020/donald-trump-jr-biden-bus-texas-kamala-harris-campaign-b1482882.html

  35. Presumably Stoker would love to introduce a few changes to elections – start with another Bjekemander, then progress to voter suppression, vote box tampering and have armed militias at polling places.

    Last night she even claimed that Australia Post was deliberately delaying delivery of postal votes to disadvantage the LNP. Solution is presumably to replace Christine Holgate with a more suitable lackey.

  40. Weasel Hunt tries to associate himself and the Feds with the good news today. As expected, absolutely no acknowledgement of the hard work by all States and Territories.

    Australia has recorded no locally acquired transmission of COVID-19 over the past 24-hour reporting period for the first time in almost five months.

    Federal Health Minister Greg Hunt says the National Incident Centre has advised it’s the first time the country has achieved the feat since June 9.

    On social media, Mr Hunt has praised health care workers and the Australian public for the milestone.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-01/coronavirus-australia-live-updates-covid19-latest-mental-health/12836336

  41. lizzie @ #2078 Sunday, November 1st, 2020 – 11:35 am

    Kevin Bonham
    @kevinbonham
    ·
    9m
    A reader has suggested an interesting possible factor in the LNP’s conspicuously poor performances in Bundaberg and Hervey Bay – these are trial sites for the cashless debit card.

    I think the LNP push for opening the border didn’t go well in these oldies abundant electorates.

  42. Some reasons for Laborites to be feeling a little more optimistic – not least among them the Qld victory in the face of the News Corp onslaught.  Congratulations Qld Labor.
    Federally, Labor have set a few traps that the PM has failed to disarm and planted some Easter eggs.  Labor appears to be strategizing better than it has for a while.
    It will interesting to see if Rudd’s petition / media bias is a factor in the lead up to the federal election. 

  44. citizen @ #2210 Sunday, November 1st, 2020 – 1:51 pm

    Weasel Hunt tries to associate himself and the Feds with the good news today. As expected, absolutely no acknowledgement of the hard work by all States and Territories.

    Australia has recorded no locally acquired transmission of COVID-19 over the past 24-hour reporting period for the first time in almost five months.

    Federal Health Minister Greg Hunt says the National Incident Centre has advised it’s the first time the country has achieved the feat since June 9.

    On social media, Mr Hunt has praised health care workers and the Australian public for the milestone.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-01/coronavirus-australia-live-updates-covid19-latest-mental-health/12836336

    Weasels, ferrets & other mustelids are the classical experimental animals for studying respiratory viruses – including SARS-CoV-2. Dutch Mink are being slaughtered as we speak. Perhaps the little G. Hunt could do something useful for a change.

  47. I doubt whether any Premiers are bothering to listen to the little Hunt as he’s been playing the same tune for months.

    Federal Health Minister Greg Hunt says Australia is on track for internal borders to be lifted by Christmas, as the country recorded zero community transmissions for the first time since June 9.

    Mr Hunt said free movement between Queensland and NSW should occur “as soon as possible”, saying there was a mounting medical case for the state to open its border to greater Sydney.

  48. Does anyone believe this?

    Outlining Australia’s rollout plans for the COVID-19 vaccine, Mr Hunt said the government was still planning for the first doses to be available to Australians by March 2021 with priority given to health workers and the elderly.

    “That guidance has been reaffirmed in recent days and then it will be progressively rolled out through the course of the year,” he said.

  50. steve davis
    It is an ‘aspirational’ aim. Marvelous things they are, you can sound like making a promise but have a get out of jail free card when the ‘aspirational’ target/aim/measure flops.

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