Ipsos has made its first entry into the Australian polling game since the 2019 election (at which it was probably the best performer of the lot, at least to the extent that it was the only one to accurately read the Labor primary vote), courtesy of New South Wales and Victorian state polls for Nine Newspapers. Unhappily though, neither features results on voting intention, though the question was clearly asked because responses are broken down by party support. In turn:
• Further evidence that Gladys Berejiklian’s travails have harmed her not at all in the view of the public, with the poll in the Sydney Morning Herald showing her with 64% approval and 16% disapproval. This compares with 22% approval and 25% disapproval for Labor’s Jodi McKay, who evidently remains a largely unknown quantity, with Berejiklian leading McKay 58-19 as preferred premier. Interestingly and unusually, opinion was also gauged on all-too-high-profile Nationals leader John Barilaro, who recorded 18% approval and 35% disapproval. Thirty-six per cent believed Berejiklian knew either a great deal or a fair amount about Daryl Maguire’s “alleged corrupt activitity”, with the same amount thinking she knew “not very much”, and 11% of trusting souls that she knew nothing at all. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Friday by phone (which I believe means live interviews, based on Ipsos’s past form) from a sample of 863.
• In Victoria, and courtesy of The Age, Ipsos records 52% approval for Daniel Andrews and 33% disapproval. Still more strikingly, Liberal leader Michael O’Brien records what may prove to be terminal ratings of 15% approval and 39% disapproval, with Andrews leading scarcely less handily than Berejiklian as preferred premier at 53-18. The poll also records 49% satisfaction and 40% dissatisfaction with the state government’s handling of the pandemic, compared with 16% and 44% for the state opposition (not featured, but probably related: opinion on the response of the news media). The state’s chief health officer, Brett Sutton, has 57% approval and 20% disapproval. The poll also finds 50% attribute responsibility for the state’s outbreak to the state government hotel quarantine program and 40% to individuals not taking the risk seriously enough, and 72% support for compulsory mask wearing, 61% for bans on regional travel and 56% for the newly relaxed 25 kilometre travel restriction. This poll was conducted Monday to Wednesday and has a sample of 858; oddly, this one was conducted online rather than by phone.
In other news, the Queensland Liberal National Party’s preselection for the November 28 federal by-election in Groom, which was the subject of my previous post on federal matters, was won by mining engineer Garth Hamilton. Party hardheads are presumably relieved that arch-conservative David van Gend was headed off in the final round of the count, by what the Toowoomba Chronicle reports was a “very close” result, although Hamilton too is seen as part of the right. Van Gend led after leading in the first round thanks to “an automatic 100 votes from the Christian lobby”, according to an LNP source quoted by the Chronicle, from a total of 290 attendees. Support then consolidated behind Hamilton with the elimination in turn of Daniel Cassidy, Andrew Meara, Sara Hales, Rebecca Vonhoff and Bryce Camm.
I see that no victor has emerged from the Labor-Green wars.
The horror 😆
.
Greens to govern with Labour
Under the deal, the Green Party co-leaders will become ministers outside of Cabinet in a deal offered to them by the Labour Party.
James Shaw will remain as Minister for Climate Change and will be Associate Environment Minister, while Marama Davidson will be the Minister for the Prevention of Family and Sexual Violence, a new role that will build on the under-secretary role Jan Logie had during the last term, and Associate Minister of Housing with a focus on homelessness.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300146558/election-2020-green-party-votes-to-be-part-of-next-government-with-labour
A labour-green alliance could work. That’s why the Liberal-National-Murdoch coalition work so hard to demonise the Greens as extreme. They’re only extreme in the sense that they don’t worship money – utterly incomprehensible to right-wingers.
Of course the Greens would tend to shift Labor left, just as the Nationals pull the Liberals right. On the other hand, the Greens would need to learn realpolitik. They can achieve nothing from Opposition. Labor+Greens, to get into Government, need to get votes from people more concerned about their mortgage, their job or their power bills than the climate, gender equity or the reef. Once in Government, Labor+Greens can work on this as well, just as Liberal+National get on with the cuts, privatisations and other pet projects they never tell us about.
Steve777 @ #1953 Saturday, October 31st, 2020 – 7:15 pm
Of course it could work. That’s why the Gibbon’s don’t want it.
Hey are we still talking about the greens and labor?
I vote labor because they have in the past formed government, and represent most of my views.
The greens share a lot of my views but don’t attract my vote because they are wankers and signal more about being virtuous. Rather than act in pragmatic ways, like joining forces with other left wing entities.
I think if the ALP and Greens could work if they just agreed on a few things and then ignored each other, like completely ignored each other on issues that create their division.
I don’t think the greens think they could actually be part of a government. As a consequence of that, their actions always sabotage the lefts chances. Remember that convoy in QLD. Thanks bob.
The Nationals get about 5% of the vote. They’re in Government.
The Greens get about 10% of the vote.
Steve777
The influence of the Nats couldn’t be described as anything but disastrous in every way. They are dragging the country down. And they’re so arrogant with it!
The influence of the Nats couldn’t be described as anything but disastrous in every way. They are dragging the country down. And they’re so arrogant with it!
True, but my point was that they work with the Liberals to achieve their common objectives: wind back welfare; boost coal; block climate action; privatisation; winding back protections for workers, consumers and the environment; together with various right wing cultural projects. In spite of disagreements, they mostly work well together to achieve their common objectives. Maybe Labor Green could think about it – certainly not waste time, money and opportunity fighting each other.
NOTE: we probably should add a portion of the CLP (NT) and the ‘N’ in the LNP to the Nationals’ vote, say 40% of CLP LNP. That would then be a National vote 4.51 0.11 3.47 = 8.09%. Still less than the Greens’ 10.40%: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Australian_federal_election#House_of_Representatives
Bludgers please note that I proposed a coalition between Labor and Greens over one year ago, and got howled down, from both sides.
It still makes sense.
Totally agree with the idea BB. I don’t think the greens have stomach for dealing with real choices. And the ALP doesn’t have the stomach to see they aren’t what they used to be.
For the NAT’s to get there influence the deal is they can’t compete against sitting members in Liberal held seat and the Liberals can’t compete against NAT in NAT held seats.
Would the Greens accept that?
Frednk,
that would be a great deal for both the greens and labor.
I wish. Especially if there was a deal for supply on a core set of agreed issues. A coalition deal that wasn’t public would be even better.
South
It does have the advantage that the NAT do not spend there time denigrating the Liberals most of the time.
And the simple truth is,the only party that has won in it own right forever is the Labor party.
Bludgers please note that I proposed a coalition between Labor and Greens over one year ago, and got howled down, from both sides.
Not by me.
Or me.
lizzie @ #1950 Saturday, October 31st, 2020 – 6:23 pm
____________________________________________________________
Many years ago, on the recommendation of a street dweller, I bought doughnuts from a small stall outside an inner suburban train station. These doughnuts were crispy on the outside, soft and fluffy on the inside, bursting with sweet, sticky jam and coated with regular granulated white sugar. Very old school, lip-smacking good – the best I have ever had.
They were nothing like the mass produced, chewy and tasteless efforts of Krispy Kreme and the like. The corporates take everything that gives us joy, strip it of authenticity, apply markerting “principles”, sell it to us at four time the price, and increase the rent.
Oh, Distopia!
Player One @ #1852 Saturday, October 31st, 2020 – 9:47 am
For this to be true, the Greens would need to win seats that are currently held buy conservative Parties.
Time and tide – Sean Connery has died at 90 years of age: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-31/actor-sean-connery-dies-aged-90/12835952
Good morning Dawn Patrollers
The Australian’s James Hall explains why Labor won the Queensland election.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/the-two-reasons-annastacia-palaszczuk-won-qld-election/news-story/d5124669ed389a431d64a99799afe702
Peter FitzSimons tells us that there is a movement in Liberal circles in the seat of Hughes to get rid of Craig Kelly at pre-selection and replace him with a more “modern” candidate.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/craig-kelly-must-go-search-on-for-modern-candidate-for-hughes-20201030-p56a7m.html
Britain’s National Health Service will be overwhelmed within weeks without a national lockdown in England, Boris Johnson has warned as he ordered the country to stay at home in a bid to reverse the spread of coronavirus.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/coronavirus/2020/11/01/coronavirus-uk-lockdown/
Jennifer Duke reports that an extra 3200 home builders and renovators have applied for the $25,000 hand out in the last fortnight.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/government-set-to-heed-developers-calls-to-extend-homebuilder-grant-scheme-20201031-p56aaj.html
Despite the focus on “hard-hat” professions in our political discourse, Australia’s economy is dominated by service sectors. If this is Australia’s first service sector recession, why isn’t this reflected in the recovery and job creation programs, asks Leya Reid.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/politicians-have-failed-to-focus-on-those-covid-19-has-hit-hardest,14470
Christian Porter is urging companies to bring their staff back to the office “as quickly as possible” as the country moves into a COVID-normal state, borders re-open and the economy recovers.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/victoria/christian-porter-urges-return-to-office-as-soon-as-possible-20201031-p56acv.html
Analysis by PwC Australia chief executive officer Tom Seymour says big firms are increasingly turning to Adelaide because they want a safe and reliable environment for workers and supply chains.
https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/kickstart-set-up-in-sa-campaign-adelaide-an-economic-winner-from-coronavirus-pandemic-national-business-leaders-say/news-story/5666eeafa40c8c91f6a8579e140e6c75
Christiane Barro writes that Victoria has ramped up its highly criticised contact tracing system to a “gold standard”, according to a leading epidemiologist who says only “toxic” politics is preventing border openings.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/coronavirus/2020/10/31/contact-tracing-victoria-nsw/
The internal examinations of Australian women at Doha airport was an absolute violation of their human rights and they deserve more than just an expression of regret, says the SMH editorial.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/payne-must-ensure-travellers-have-rights-respected-at-middle-east-airports-20201030-p56a8y.html
Xi Jinping’s “Operation Fox Hunt” has been caught tracking down Chinese citizens living in the US. We have strong reasons to believe they are doing the same here, says Clive Hamilton
https://www.smh.com.au/national/why-we-should-suspect-china-s-secret-police-are-at-work-on-our-streets-20201030-p56a17.html
Wendy Touhy reports that perpetrators of sexual harassment and discrimination within Ambulance Victoria have been put on notice, with the organisation’s chiefs warning that they “should be anxious” and will be found.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/ambulance-victoria-chiefs-say-abusers-bullies-will-be-weeded-out-20201031-p56aay.html
Jenny Hocking tells us about the royal accolades piled on Sir John Kerr after the dismissal of Whitlam.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/royal-accolades-piled-on-sir-john-kerr-after-the-dismissal,14471
With Melbourne’s bustling music scene raring and ready to go, venues hope residents haven’t become too used to the peace and quiet, writes Elsie Lange.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/pub-owners-fear-heightened-noise-sensitivity-post-lockdown-may-crush-live-gigs-20201030-p56a3l.html
Mark Kenny declares that America has a choice: democracy or Donald Trump. This is well worth reading.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6992356/americas-choice-democracy-or-donald-trump/?cs=14232
Joe Biden supporters won’t believe in victory until it is theirs, says Greg Jericho.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/commentisfree/2020/nov/01/joe-biden-supporters-wont-believe-in-victory-until-it-is-theirs
Jacqui Maley explains why she is hoping for a Trump loss.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/obama-talked-about-the-audacity-of-hope-with-trump-all-hope-is-agony-20201030-p56a74.html
Matt Wade warns that our fixation on Trump’s America is not matched by our trade with the US.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/don-t-get-too-fixated-on-trump-s-america-we-trade-much-more-with-others-20201030-p56a7p.html
Matthew Knott writes that Donald Trump will end the US election campaign with 13 rallies packed into three days as America braces itself for potentially violent unrest in the case of a close and contested result on Wednesday our time.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/trump-launches-rally-blitz-as-america-braces-for-election-unrest-20201031-p56ab3.html
Women will decide this election – and Trump keeps insulting them, says Arwa Mahdawi.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct/31/women-will-decide-this-election-and-trump-keeps-insulting-them
Kirstie Clements ridicules Trump’s vanity.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/entertainment/style/2020/10/31/donald-trump-makeup-men/
Cartoon Corner
Peter Broelman
Reg Lynch
Matt Golding
Mark Knight
Matt Davidson
From the US
BK
Thank goodness you’re here. I thought I’d lost everyone.
Peter Dutton appeared and said he knew of “treachery”, implying that had influenced the votes.
He sees evil everywhere. What a mentality!
Everyone was over in Queensland.
Steve777
Perhaps they’re still keeping Qld time?
A labour-green alliance could work. That’s why the Liberal-National-Murdoch coalition work so hard to demonise the Greens as extreme. They’re only extreme in the sense that they don’t worship money – utterly incomprehensible to right-wingers.
And that, in a nutshell, is why it will never work.
1. The Liberal-Murdoch-RW Coalition would have a ready-made demon to scare people with again.
2. The Greens’ policies are incomprehensible to 90% of the electorate and that’s why they don’t vote for them. Whether certain of us here like it or not.
NB The Greens’ vote went down 0.7% in Queensland yesterday. Ergo, most people see them as an unrealistic option.
Bushfire Bill, consider yourself howled down again. 😀
Tony Koch
@TonyKoc69285191
So Clive Palmer bragged he would decide who wins govt in Qld. The big man with his cheque book was caught out on the lies he promoted, the stupidity he was enunciating .. and was told by the electorate that his filthy millions could not buy our democracy. Eat shit Clive. #auspol
Boris Johnson has confirmed a return to a full national lockdown that will come into force in England from Thursday (November 5).
With exceptions for education, work where people cannot work from home, recreational exercise, and shopping for food and essentials, the Government is once again asking the public to stay at home – with the same “protect the NHS, save lives” messaging as in March.
Pubs, restaurants and non-essential retail must close, Mr Johnson told a press briefing, while the furlough scheme has been extended on a time-limited basis to provided support for shuttered businesses until England returns to the three-tier system in December.
Schools, childcare, colleges and universities will stay open, and clinically vulnerable people will not be asked to shield, although they have been urged to minimise their social interactions with others.
“No responsible Prime Minister can ignore the message of those figures,” Mr Johnson said as Professor Chris Whitty and Sir Patrick Vallance produced stark graphs which claimed deaths and hospitals could exceed the first peak whilst leaving the NHS overwhelmed.
” Unless we act we could see deaths in this country running at several thousands a day. The overrunning of the NHS would be a medical and moral disaster beyond the loss of life.
“Now is the time to take action because there is no alternative.”
I wonder what attitude Speers will take this morning. I’ve seen comment that he was very subdued last night, and made the mistake once again of referring to the Qld LNP as “we”.
All over 50%!
Dave Wasserman Cook Political Report
@Redistrict
New
@CNN
polls (LVs)…
Arizona: Biden 50%, Trump 46%
Michigan: Biden 53%, Trump 41%
North Carolina: Biden 51%, Trump 45%
Wisconsin: Biden 52%, Trump 44%
Gets down on my knees and prays, even though I’m not overtly religious.
Holdenhillbilly
From the comments I’m seeing, it’s time that Boris was officially declared a disaster.
Victoria records another day of no new COVID-19 cases
Victoria has recorded another day of zero cases and zero deaths on Sunday.
The figures, a welcome start to November, come as Premier Daniel Andrews took a break from his daily press conference on Saturday for the first time in 120 days.
The 14-day rolling average in metropolitan Melbourne is at 2.2, with one mystery case recorded between October 16 and 29.
After Anastacia Palazsczjuk’s showing in Queensland yesterday, I reckon Dan Andrews is on track for a landslide win in Victoria too.
From The Courier Mail
HOW ONE NATION PROPELLED LABOR TO VICTORY
LANDSLIDE It was a move straight out of Pauline Hanson’s playbook that helped Labor to a surprise majority government win at the election. Ironically, it came with the help of One Nation supporters.
Cough, cough!
Kevin Rudd
@MrKRudd
Over the course of the election campaign, the #CourierFail has released 83 anti-Labor articles & only 8 anti LNP. Strangely they’ve also released 43 pro LNP articles but only 16 pro Labor. Bias? What bias?
Sign the #MurdochRoyalCommission petition: https://aph.gov.au/petition_list?id=EN1938
I cannot believe The Courier Mail had 16 pro Labor articles.
That seems to be 16 too many!
Morning all. Congratulations to the Qld Labor govt being re-elected, despite the predictions of doom and crowing/trolling from many here yesterday.
Last night we had a dinner party with two of OH’s friends from the US. Her family are in Florida and his are in California and Denver. Her family, parents in particular have voted Republican always, but this year are voting for Biden because they are disgusted with Trump and his handling of covid. She said she’s always been the black sheep of the family but now they’re all voting Democrat.
lizzie @ #1976 Sunday, November 1st, 2020 – 8:17 am
I noticed. What a ……………..(insert to suit).
cat,
That’s 3 Elections in a row that The Courier Mail has run an anti Labor line and 3 times that Anna P has won and increased Labor’s majority.
So, clearly, Queenslanders are not being overly influenced by the Murdoch Press and clearly don’t draw their political views from negative Labor slanting of stories and biased editorialising.
No doubt Anna P will be quite happy for the true Queensland Opposition to continue their unsuccessful strategy.
Thanks BK.
There have been reports of ousting Craig Kelly at the last election and the one before that, but he always prevails thanks to the intervention of the party leader. I expect the same thing will happen this time.
GG
I wasn’t at all impressed with Deb’s “concession speech”, if that’s what we should call it. All she did was to repeat her pre-election declarations.
If I could cheekily recommend something to Annastacia, before the next election she could look at introducing more programs of support for the “teenage thugs” in Townsville and Cairns. Drop-in centres that close after business hours are obviously not adequate.
It seems that PM Scotty in a tank looking like Kim Jong un wasn’t such a good idea after all.
Greensborough Growler @ #1986 Sunday, November 1st, 2020 – 8:42 am
Yeah, people are getting hip to the Murdoch/Courier Mail jive. Especially when there are so many ex-CM journalists around the traps giving them heaps! 😀
‘The government and peak farming body have been left scrambling to find ways to help unemployed Australians land fruit picking work after The New Daily revealed that finding a farm job is almost impossible for locals.’
‘Along with a group of mates Ms Lewis has been working on and off at farms picking fruit for years but said it has become almost impossible to get a job.
‘…“I enjoy doing the farm work, but this year there have been five of us doing it, we’ve been knocked back by 27 farms, and that’s mostly in the last month,” she said.
They’ve tried farms in NSW, central QLD and the Sunshine Coast but have had no luck. She said farms want to take backpackers because they can underpay them.’
‘…On top of poor pay, many jobs also required workers to stay in local hostels, which don’t come cheap.
The going rate can be upwards of $250 per week for a bed in a dorm. Don’t agree and you don’t get the job.’
‘…He said he had visited one farm in Brooloo, Queensland, recently and was blatantly told they don’t give work to Australians.
“There were six backpackers waiting to see if they could get work. He said ‘Are you Australian? Don’t bother, I won’t even hire you’,” Mr Tanson recounted.’
‘…United Workers Union Farms Director Jannette Armstrong told The New Daily that some farms have paid fruit pickers as little as $4.60 an hour.
“UWU investigations have found that in some of those hotspots the average hourly rate is around $14, but we absolutely know of cases where workers have been paid as little as $4.60 per hour,” Ms Armstrong said.’
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2020/11/01/fruit-picking-farm-jobs/
I don’t follow rugby but I agree with comments that David Nduwimana’s rendition of the Australian anthem was the best ever.
Lizzie,
I thought Frecklington’s concession speech was OK. She praised Anna and the Labor party for their victory and opined that though she and Anna disagreed on many things , she had her repsect.
I think the LNP’s ongoing problem is the structure of their Party and the inevitabl infighting that will ensue after a loss like this Election.
GG
I suppose I found it a little emotionless. But perhaps that’s the lady’s nature.
And RIP Sean Connery, the best of the James Bonds.
Annastacia Palaszczuk joins Daniel Andrews as a ‘seat warmer’ state leader turned Labor legend.
Hopefully she seizes this opportunity to transform the Qld regions especially into a sustainably clean and modern economic powerhouse.
Mildly peeved by a photo of Albo in an Akubra with an ‘off to Darwin’ caption.
Why oh why oh why do pollies, heading anywhere vaguely regional, decide to dress as a cast member of ‘Dad and Dave’?
(We had a Nats Senator rock up here once wearing a LEATHER Drizabone. No one here even wears Drizabones…)
A couple of times, I’ve protested that a Labor event doesn’t cater for rural/regional issues. The response has always been to whack in a session on farming.
It frustrates me.
Stupid comment from Speers about Trump being re-elected. Biden will win the popular vote, indicating that yes, voters do want to get rid of Trump. The only way Trump will be re-elected is because of their undemocratic electoral college.
I found it annoying that, during the Premier’s speech, the ABC had a little box on the screen showing Frecklington walking into the LNP venue and speaking. As we couldn’t hear what she was saying, why bother to show it at all?
In any case, ABC showed Frecklington’s speech straight afterwards.