Ipsos has made its first entry into the Australian polling game since the 2019 election (at which it was probably the best performer of the lot, at least to the extent that it was the only one to accurately read the Labor primary vote), courtesy of New South Wales and Victorian state polls for Nine Newspapers. Unhappily though, neither features results on voting intention, though the question was clearly asked because responses are broken down by party support. In turn:
• Further evidence that Gladys Berejiklian’s travails have harmed her not at all in the view of the public, with the poll in the Sydney Morning Herald showing her with 64% approval and 16% disapproval. This compares with 22% approval and 25% disapproval for Labor’s Jodi McKay, who evidently remains a largely unknown quantity, with Berejiklian leading McKay 58-19 as preferred premier. Interestingly and unusually, opinion was also gauged on all-too-high-profile Nationals leader John Barilaro, who recorded 18% approval and 35% disapproval. Thirty-six per cent believed Berejiklian knew either a great deal or a fair amount about Daryl Maguire’s “alleged corrupt activitity”, with the same amount thinking she knew “not very much”, and 11% of trusting souls that she knew nothing at all. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Friday by phone (which I believe means live interviews, based on Ipsos’s past form) from a sample of 863.
• In Victoria, and courtesy of The Age, Ipsos records 52% approval for Daniel Andrews and 33% disapproval. Still more strikingly, Liberal leader Michael O’Brien records what may prove to be terminal ratings of 15% approval and 39% disapproval, with Andrews leading scarcely less handily than Berejiklian as preferred premier at 53-18. The poll also records 49% satisfaction and 40% dissatisfaction with the state government’s handling of the pandemic, compared with 16% and 44% for the state opposition (not featured, but probably related: opinion on the response of the news media). The state’s chief health officer, Brett Sutton, has 57% approval and 20% disapproval. The poll also finds 50% attribute responsibility for the state’s outbreak to the state government hotel quarantine program and 40% to individuals not taking the risk seriously enough, and 72% support for compulsory mask wearing, 61% for bans on regional travel and 56% for the newly relaxed 25 kilometre travel restriction. This poll was conducted Monday to Wednesday and has a sample of 858; oddly, this one was conducted online rather than by phone.
In other news, the Queensland Liberal National Party’s preselection for the November 28 federal by-election in Groom, which was the subject of my previous post on federal matters, was won by mining engineer Garth Hamilton. Party hardheads are presumably relieved that arch-conservative David van Gend was headed off in the final round of the count, by what the Toowoomba Chronicle reports was a “very close” result, although Hamilton too is seen as part of the right. Van Gend led after leading in the first round thanks to “an automatic 100 votes from the Christian lobby”, according to an LNP source quoted by the Chronicle, from a total of 290 attendees. Support then consolidated behind Hamilton with the elimination in turn of Daniel Cassidy, Andrew Meara, Sara Hales, Rebecca Vonhoff and Bryce Camm.
Steve777 @ #1796 Saturday, October 31st, 2020 – 10:59 am
Because they are flipsides of the same coin. City/Country.
Steve777 says:
Saturday, October 31, 2020 at 10:59 am
Non
Yeah yeah yeah. Except that voters in Australia really do not like it
It works for the Liberals and Nationals. People keep voting for them.
National voting is practically an inherited gene. While they hate each other, the Liberals and Nationals do not spend most of their time plotting to annihilate each other. The Greens were formed with the intention of destroying Labor. They work towards that end every day.
Late Riser
Nasty.
Late Riser @ #1798 Saturday, October 31st, 2020 – 11:01 am
Remember that Morrison gifted your data to a Liberal-related firm recently.
C@t
I’m glad you cleared that up. Seriously.
Labor still trotting out the BS debate that parties control preferences and the lie from Qld Labor
It is up to every citizen voter to decide preferences for themselves.
It’s up to parties or candidates to make the argument to them as to why it is even remotely more worthwhile to in the end preference one or other mixture of mediocrity and mendacity in the current major parties.
Via Antony Green
https://antonygreen.com.au/should-how-to-votes-be-banned-at-australian-elections/
But Always Remember, it is Voters that Determine Preferences, not Candidates and Parties
A constant mistake made in referring to preferences on how-to-votes is to say a candidate or party is “directing” preferences.
A candidate or party may “recommend” preferences on a how to vote, but they cannot direct preferences. Parties and candidates cannot override the preferences that a voter writes on their ballot paper.
I myself admit to the sin of occasionally saying “directed” when I mean “recommended”.
Recommendations are meaningless unless a voter is given a candidate’s how-to-vote. The more how-to-votes a candidate distributes, the more voters might choose to follow it. Voters that don’t receive a how-to-vote can only match a candidate’s preference sequence by deduction or chance. The fewer the candidates on a ballot paper, and the clearer the ideological choices, the greater the chance that a voter can guess a candidate’s recommended sequence without a how-to-vote.
For all the talk of what proportion of preferences flow from one party to another, there is only one thing a voter needs to know about preferences. 100% of the preferences for a voter’s ballot paper will flow where the voter sends them. When preferences are being distributed, a candidate cannot override what the voter has written on their ballot paper.
When thinking about the LNP raiding your personal info and using it to campaign, remember too that the Greens campaign for and on behalf of the LNP 24/7.
Quoll says:
Saturday, October 31, 2020 at 11:06 am
Labor still trotting out the BS debate that parties control preferences and the lie from Qld Labor
This is absolute shit. Labor do not sing this tune. The facts are, however, that the Greens campaign against Labor/for the LNP 24/7.
The Q-post cited here is just another example of this ceaseless Labor-hating campaign.
Late Riser @ #3432 Saturday, October 31st, 2020 – 11:01 am
Fat Clive’s ill-gotten golden turds?
The fibs are hopeless
Rafael Epstein
@Raf_Epstein
·
20h
Now we are open Vic .. what options were there?
5 cases a day? “unachievable” !
5 mystery cases? “roadmap to despair”
We got there
On Sept 13
@michaelobrienmp
wanted to open Vic up
@agent_jase
says could have become 100 daily cases by Xmas
https://abc.net.au/radio/melbourne/programs/drive/jason-thompson-on-the-modelling-that-showed-exactly-how-to-beat-/12832258 1/3
The modelling behind beating Melbourne’s second wave
Melbourne’s coronavirus second wave seemed impossible to defeat – but Melbourne University modelling showed exactly how to do it.
abc.net.au
Anne Summers on election anxiety in USA.
When the results are known, get drunk and shoot the puppy?
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/puppies-alcohol-and-bullet-proof-vests-an-anxious-us-readies-for-election-storm-20201030-p569za.html
There was an excellent article in the Independent Australia yesterday by John Quiggin (linked by BK) on how a mature coalition between Labor and the Greens could work:
First, both parties need to realise that they are part of the same centre-Left movement. For Labor, that means giving up the idea that the Greens are a temporary irritant that will go the way of the Democratic Labour Party (DLP) if they are ignored long enough or abused as “inner-city elites”.
For the Greens, it means accepting that there is no prospect of a Green majority government any time seen and abandoning rhetoric suggesting that they represent an unaligned alternative to a two-party duopoly.
In electoral terms, the starting point for both parties should be an exchange of preferences in all seats. That starting point doesn’t preclude changes in the case of particularly objectionable (or particularly good) candidates, but it does rule out the kinds of negotiations we’ve seen so many times between Labor and conservative parties, particularly in the Senate. It also rules out the fake piety of Green “open tickets”.
A mature opinion, which underlines how unhelpful the same / same rhetoric is.
It is:
1) Not true, and
2) Gives low-information voters permission to vote Coalition, believing that an ALP government would not provide any improvement socially or environmentally.
The latter point is demonstrably untrue when you compare the record of ALP government with Coalition governments.
Addition from edit – the Federal Coalition governments under Howard and Abbott / Turnbull / Morison have been a absolute disaster for research, particularly of the scientific variety.
When the Greens say same / same, they are punishing Australia society as a whole – we are all worse off when we research is decimated in the popular usage. It is a lot more than a 10% cull – more like a 75% cull for ARC Discovery Projects.
And, a 16% decrease for uni funding for science and engineering places from 2023.
The US looks to be staring down the barrel of another record day of covid infections. May even go over 100k.
lizzie @ #1803 Saturday, October 31st, 2020 – 11:05 am
The number of Tesla’s, and I’m sure PowerWalls as well, that I’m seeing around my way is convincing me of this fact. Coal is going the way of the Dodo. Just not Metallurgical Coal just yet. Though I believe that a replacement technology is not THAT far off into the future.
Honestly, Labor need to finesse an appeal to the Miners, as Anastacia Palazczsjuk has, and how friendlyjordies points out, and develop a just transition jobs policy that moves them into mining the minerals needed for batteries etc. I understand these people have mouths to feed and mortgages to pay and want to hold onto their jobs but Joe Biden has shown that you can craft a way forward for them that doesn’t keep them in their coal jobs.
Warrigal @ #1666 Friday, October 30th, 2020 – 8:23 pm
And personally autographed by all three.
lizzie @ #1743 Saturday, October 31st, 2020 – 8:45 am
Possibly federal politicians aren’t allowed to sign petitions. I noted some qualification in the signing process.
Quoll @ #1804 Saturday, October 31st, 2020 – 8:06 am
😆 😆 😆
How many times have we heard;
a r @ #1811 Saturday, October 31st, 2020 – 11:17 am
But Dr Don Jr said they’ve gone away to nothing!
Victoria @ #1808 Saturday, October 31st, 2020 – 11:16 am
The killer quote is:
“Despite concerns the targets were unachievable, including from Federal Health Minister Greg Hunt, Victoria hit its goal of average and mystery COVID-19 cases.
Dr Jason Thompson from University of Melbourne’s Transport and Urban Design Research Lab was part of the team that undertook the challenge of modelling the second wave.
He joined Raf Epstein on Drive to explain how the team took on the task, and why “sticking as close as possible” to science without the distraction of opinions remained his overarching goal”.
lizzie @ #1791 Saturday, October 31st, 2020 – 7:51 am
Yeah!
Douglas and Milko
Wasn’t it the previous Greens leader (can’t remember his name right now – oh, that’s right, Di Natale) who declared they were going to become a major political party within xxx years? I think thatstarted the more aggressive attitude.
I think I’ve had my fill of politics for the morning. Coffee and early lunch now. 🙂
Douglas and Milko
D&M….Quiggin’s musing is premised on the idea that the Greens want to collaborate with Labor. They don’t. They want to destroy Labor. They will ALWAYS seek to differentiate themselves from Labor and to attack Labor…even if Labor were to seek common ground with the Greens. The Greens understand that politics is an adversarial game. Voices speak against each other and not with each other. This is necessary for voices “to be heard”. The Greens really get that. They use it all the time.
It is absolutely necessary to understand that the dynamics of the public contest mean the Greens are a Labor-hostile voice. They must retain this characteristic in order to survive. The day the Greens become Labor-friendly is the day they cease to have any reason to exist. They will always be Labor-hating even when they purport not to be.
That reminds me of the “Beer And Bullets” store I saw when I visited the Upper Michigan. I went inside and saw it was a general store, but it did sell the two items advertised. I was advised to always wear bright orange to avoid being shot.
C@tmomma @ #1802 Saturday, October 31st, 2020 – 8:04 am
Or your name could be on the electoral role, which any citizen can, for a fee, access.
Lizzie,
That escalated things, but in my seat of Sydney, it was 2004 where the Greens went really hard against Labor with a big same / same campaign.
That was also the election where Bob Brown was going to do a preference deal with Howard for extra protection of Tasmanian forests, but backed out at the last moment decided Howard was hoodwinking him.
Also, forgot to add the link to the excellent IA Quiggin article:
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/why-a-coalition-between-queensland-labor-and-the-greens-would-work,14464
The Greens are Labor-phobic. This is an existential necessity for them. This is the characteristic dysfunction in Left-of-Centre politics in Australia. We’re fucked because of it.
Jeez, the anti-Green synchronized dirge here on PB becomes tedious at times. And I’m not even a Green.
Anyone would think there was an election on or something 🙂
The US has just kicked over 101,000 new cases today. They will hit 1000 deaths probably.
Late Riser
I got 3 spam text msgs from Clive and don’t even live in the state!
No, I understand that. But linking that to my phone number is something deeper. The EC claim that only name and address information is available to the public. I’m seriously thinking of changing my number. (The LNP are the only political party sending info to my phone.)
Douglas and Milko @ #1810 Saturday, October 31st, 2020 – 11:16 am
That article by Quiggin is from a Greens’ perspective. It is entirely true that The Greens are a mature political party who are not going to go the way of the DLP dinosaurs (who haven’t gone away either, btw). And it is for that reason that Labor have to take them seriously, and NOT attempt any sort of Coalition with them, as friendlyjordies points out, because Murdoch and the Liberals and the LNP will use it mercilessly to beat Labor about the head with and keep them out of power for a GENERATION, at least. THAT’S the problem with Labor touching The Greens with anything shorter than a barge pole, no matter how logical it may seem.
Not to mention the fact that The Greens will do arsehat acts like preferencing Liberal and LNP politicians over Labor whenever they feel like it will be of benefit to THEM. What political party wants to work together with another party as feckless as that?
Danama Papers @ #1822 Saturday, October 31st, 2020 – 11:28 am
The electoral roll doesn’t link to your phone number.
I know Queensland is a lot different to the ACT but the Canberra Liberals had a similar slogan here and were trounced at the election two weeks ago. Their slogan was “lower taxes, better services” and a rego rebate. Commentators and the electors added “magic pudding” to the Liberals’ claims.
“Yes, but the federal Greens Party here seem to think that power sharing means they get to implement their policies, rather than working together to develop policies acceptable to both, that are able to pass through the Parliament.”
Greens and labor worked fine together under Gillard, passing a record amount of legislation. Seems to me that term was the very definition of “working together to develop policies acceptable to both”.
Pity labor had to go and ruin it all with their petty infighting.
C@tmomma @ #1830 Saturday, October 31st, 2020 – 8:40 am
Correct. Anyone can find out where you live though which is the part that I responded to in LR’s post.
It’s all good. Carry on. As you were.
I agree the Greens in Australia (especially in NSW) are particularly Labor hostile – they need to grow up and stop playing “stunt” politics.
At some stage, if all the Greens are doing is being used by Rupert Murdoch as a wedge to damage Labor, younger voters will get sick of endless Coalition governments, and may turn against the Greens.
The German Greens had this problem over a decade ago. They split when they formed a Coalition government, because some Greens party members wanted to continue being activists only, and once you are part of a Coalition, you have to do policy rather than platitudes.
Some sage said that physics advances 1 funeral at a time. I expect it will be the same with the Australian Greens. The Bob Brown era Greens were specifically formed because they felt the Hawke / Keating government were not strong enough on the environment, and that the Democrats were too Labor friendly in the senate.
This philosophy still permeates Greens party members (around here they do not like Obama either), but not Greens party voters, who make up their own mind.
To “Non” and the other anti-Greens contributers on this site……do some historical research and reflection on the origins of the Australian Labor Party and you will discover that it was never a social democratic party (at least how expressed in recent decades) but a mix of xenophobia (fear of the “yellow peril” – Chinese) which resulted in the infamous “White Australia” policy; strident nationalism (a suspicion of non-Australian born while clinging to the coat tails of British imperialism); and a reluctance to support woman’s suffrage (due to the anti-alcohol campaign by the women’s Temperance Movement from the late 1890s). These “streams” produced a political party which sings a “mixed message”. This is well illustrated by the internal contortions going on in 2020 about the place of fossil fuels etc and walking away from public ownership of community services and embracing of “neo-liberal economics” in recent decades. The formation and the growth of the Australian Greens represents a coming together of people who want a political party that pursues policies that put the public good before placating vested interests. If the ALP was truly a democratic socialist party, my hunch is that there would be a coalition of the ALP and Greens who would win government at state and federal levels and pursue a path that would transform for the better Australia in the 21st century.
Robert says:
Saturday, October 31, 2020 at 12:05 pm
Wahahahahs
Greens were not born from Australian Labor Party.
They were born from Activists.
John Hewson has tweeted, “Bushfire Royal Commission should jolt Morrison from his irresponsible and ignorant denialist slumber on science and climate encouraging him to accept the imperative to initiate an effective and fair transition across all sectors to a low carbon Australia over the next 30 years”.
Danama Papers @ #1833 Saturday, October 31st, 2020 – 11:54 am
🙂
Zerlo @ #1836 Saturday, October 31st, 2020 – 9:10 am
At no point did he ever claim that.
It’s pretty obvious where the opposition to a power sharing alliance stems from, you just have to read the contributions by those of the Labor Right on this blog to get an idea of how opposed to the idea they are. The contributions from the Labor Left are, unsurprisingly, far more reasonable.
I will say one thing for the likes of Briefly, Cat, Barney, Zoom, Fess, GG, etc… At least you are all honest and upfront about your genuine dislike of the Greens and what we stand for.
Damna Papers, yes he did:
The formation and the growth of the Australian Greens represents a coming together of people who want a political party that pursues policies that put the public good before placating vested interests. If the ALP was truly a democratic socialist party.
Yeah nothing to do with anything else just Labor bad, Labor Fault.
“When the Greens say same / same, they are punishing Australia society as a whole”
***
When Labor stops teaming up with the Coalition to pass tax cuts for the rich and things of that nature, then they can lecture us about punishing Australia as a whole, but not before.
If Labor does not wish to be viewed as a party of the establishment then they should stop acting like one.
Team up with the Greens instead of the Coalition! Now there’s an idea!
This philosophy still permeates Greens party members (around here they do not like Obama either), but not Greens party voters, who make up their own mind.
And that’s the point. People who become avid Greens’ party members tend to be more inclined to be antagonistic to the Labor Party, as opposed to Greens voters who just like a party that appeals to their environmental and social fairness credentials.
LibLab are controlled by the east coast fossil fuel cartel.
It’s only natural that the cartel, via platforms such as PB, attacks environmentalists.
If the teals and the LEANS are genuine environmentalists, they will place LibLab down the bottom of the ballot paper.
United States :
Coronavirus Cases:
9,316,297
Deaths:
235,159
– 101,461 new cases and 988 new deaths in the United States
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
Greens are dirty politics.
Demanding they work with Laborvin a coalition but bullying Labor
Firefox
I don’t dislike the Greens and all they stand for.
I wish they stood up for the environment a lot more than they do, and I wish that they would play a more constructive role in politics.
This is the road to success, as the NZ Greens have demonstrated.
I can and do criticise Labor, as do most of the Labor followers here – it is striking that you rarely see a Green supporter here criticise the Greens.
This is one of the problems the party has. Its members often appear overly partisan, which – of course – closes the door to improvement.
Every now and then this results in a pretty public meltdown by disaffected Greens.
Great news. Sutton is a Victorian hero.