Ipsos has made its first entry into the Australian polling game since the 2019 election (at which it was probably the best performer of the lot, at least to the extent that it was the only one to accurately read the Labor primary vote), courtesy of New South Wales and Victorian state polls for Nine Newspapers. Unhappily though, neither features results on voting intention, though the question was clearly asked because responses are broken down by party support. In turn:
• Further evidence that Gladys Berejiklian’s travails have harmed her not at all in the view of the public, with the poll in the Sydney Morning Herald showing her with 64% approval and 16% disapproval. This compares with 22% approval and 25% disapproval for Labor’s Jodi McKay, who evidently remains a largely unknown quantity, with Berejiklian leading McKay 58-19 as preferred premier. Interestingly and unusually, opinion was also gauged on all-too-high-profile Nationals leader John Barilaro, who recorded 18% approval and 35% disapproval. Thirty-six per cent believed Berejiklian knew either a great deal or a fair amount about Daryl Maguire’s “alleged corrupt activitity”, with the same amount thinking she knew “not very much”, and 11% of trusting souls that she knew nothing at all. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Friday by phone (which I believe means live interviews, based on Ipsos’s past form) from a sample of 863.
• In Victoria, and courtesy of The Age, Ipsos records 52% approval for Daniel Andrews and 33% disapproval. Still more strikingly, Liberal leader Michael O’Brien records what may prove to be terminal ratings of 15% approval and 39% disapproval, with Andrews leading scarcely less handily than Berejiklian as preferred premier at 53-18. The poll also records 49% satisfaction and 40% dissatisfaction with the state government’s handling of the pandemic, compared with 16% and 44% for the state opposition (not featured, but probably related: opinion on the response of the news media). The state’s chief health officer, Brett Sutton, has 57% approval and 20% disapproval. The poll also finds 50% attribute responsibility for the state’s outbreak to the state government hotel quarantine program and 40% to individuals not taking the risk seriously enough, and 72% support for compulsory mask wearing, 61% for bans on regional travel and 56% for the newly relaxed 25 kilometre travel restriction. This poll was conducted Monday to Wednesday and has a sample of 858; oddly, this one was conducted online rather than by phone.
In other news, the Queensland Liberal National Party’s preselection for the November 28 federal by-election in Groom, which was the subject of my previous post on federal matters, was won by mining engineer Garth Hamilton. Party hardheads are presumably relieved that arch-conservative David van Gend was headed off in the final round of the count, by what the Toowoomba Chronicle reports was a “very close” result, although Hamilton too is seen as part of the right. Van Gend led after leading in the first round thanks to “an automatic 100 votes from the Christian lobby”, according to an LNP source quoted by the Chronicle, from a total of 290 attendees. Support then consolidated behind Hamilton with the elimination in turn of Daniel Cassidy, Andrew Meara, Sara Hales, Rebecca Vonhoff and Bryce Camm.
This is too good
Sacha Baron Cohen
@SachaBaronCohen
· Oct 25
Donald—I appreciate the free publicity for Borat! I admit, I don’t find you funny either. But yet the whole world laughs at you.
I’m always looking for people to play racist buffoons, and you’ll need a job after Jan. 20. Let’s talk!
https://hollywoodlife.com/2020/10/24/donald-trump-sacha-baron-cohen-borat-prank/amp/?__twitter_impression=true
Terminator
“What if ICAC recall her over McGuire?”
Probably more likely what if ICAC criticises her in its report eg as to her credibility?
This is response to one of the feral journos who attends dans pressers most days
Töm Réÿnöldš Cross mark
@TomReynolds_AU
·
10m
Replying to
@rachelbaxendale
Hi Rachel… My wife worked in covid infection control during lockdown. I’ve learnt from her stories that if medical professionals in full PPE can catch it, then the receptionist and security guard at a hotel have no chance. And the ADF and police would’ve been no better.
Erica would be dumbstruck that his second-best friend David van Gend failed to get the nod in Groom, both men of impeccable Christian virtues.
____________________________________________
[‘Liberal leader Michael O’Brien records what may prove to be terminal ratings of 15% approval…’]
This reflects the view that poor Michael is in dire need of a charisma makeover. He’d have to be the most uninspiring LOTO in the land. Never mind, he can always return from whence he came – the Bar.
Operation Keppel timeline but unlikely the submissions are published:
“Operation Keppel (Maguire) timetable for submissions
On 20 October 2020, Assistant Commissioner the Hon Ruth McColl AO SC directed that the following submission timetable be adhered to in Operation Keppel:
Counsel assisting submissions by 7 December 2020
Submissions in reply by 1 February 2021
Counsel assisting submissions in response (if any) by 22 February 2021.
Whilst the dates are publicly known, it is the usual course that the presiding Commissioner determines that it is in the public interest that submissions are subject to a non-publication order pursuant to s 112 of the Independent Commission Against Corruption Act 1988.”
Mavis
It has nothing to do with charisma. Do any of the other current premiers or opposition leaders around the country have what you call charisma?
No Mavis I reckon Jodie has MOB covered – and he is really very unimpressive. Imagine a guy who can’t cut through when nearly 90% of all Australian COVID deaths are as a result of maladministration and second rate contact tracing.
Thanks god for Gladys – our economy is going strong here in NSW!! Andrew Earlwood for Opposition Leader…..
Shellbell
I think that during the ‘quiet period’ in May and June, the virus was already spreading in the community. People were not taking it seriously. Then in July it ‘took off’ in Aged Care.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-29/victoria-coronavirus-aged-care-deaths-rise-as-cases-up-295/12502298
But you’re right, going over the history is not productive now.
moderate
Actually according to commsec, Victoria even with the harsh lockdown is doing better than NSW. Gotta admit that even surprised me.
We have been in lockdown for three months, and our economy indicators are better than NSW. Go figure!
Here is the report that was released yesterday.
Victoria comes in third
NSW comes in fourth.
https://www.commsec.com.au/stateofstates
Victoria – hmmm lets analyse the figures after the effects of a 16 week lock down are factored in.
Victoria @ #58 Tuesday, October 27th, 2020 – 9:05 am
I wonder if anyone from Labor will make anything out of this…or just keep it in. Hold it silently, gently. Tell no one….say, nothing…….sshhh
moderate
I am very confident that Victoria will bounce back even better.
Watch this space.
Victoria:
Tuesday, October 27, 2020 at 9:02 am
[‘Do any of the other current premiers or opposition leaders around the country have what you call charisma?’]
Well, yes. I’d say, Andrews & McGowan are endowed with, in Weberian terms, charismatic authority as opposed to legal and traditional authority, a quality reflected by polling.
mundo
Well of course, to do otherwise would risk ‘politicising’ it and that would be appalling . So best say nowt in case anyone notices. All part of the cunning master plan.
Gawd I so want to rub some conspiracy nuts and far right wingnuts feeds back at them today.
However, if you wished to be cynical, the dates of the rule changes largely avoided Grand Final, Halloween (Kids every with parents in tow going door to door) and Melbourne Cup Day as potential spreading opportunities in order to guarantee Christmas. Caution and patience is rewarded every time with this virus.
OK I’d happily wager a bottle of Grange but its become something that NSW Libs avoid now!!
Lets review in Q1 2021.
I listened to this podcast last night about the state of Georgia.
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/state-vote-8-days-until-election-day-how-georgia-could/id1514968525?i=1000496087021
And listening to Charlie Sykes’ guest this morning he noted that in 2008 Democrats saw something in Virginia’s demography that made them go for it, crazily according to commentary at the time. And they were right. He says Dems see the same thing in Georgia today. Hopefully it turns blue too.
So at least 20% believe she knew “a great deal or a fair amount about Daryl Maguire’s “alleged corrupt activitity”” and yet still approve of her performance.
I think this says a lot about how willing some are to turning a blind eye to corruption and why public figures think they can get away with it.
moderate:
Tuesday, October 27, 2020 at 9:03 am
[‘Imagine a guy who can’t cut through when nearly 90% of all Australian COVID deaths are as a result of maladministration and second rate contact tracing.’]
Well, that’s a matter to be determined by Coate. Andrews has earned the respect of a majority of Victorians by his steadfastness, with a big dollop of charisma thrown in. From afar, he’d do very well at the federal level, as
would McGowan.
Fun fact.
No ALP leader in NSW has resigned as a consequence of any connection to or failure to act on corruption, although Messrs Iemma and Rees may arguably have suffered at the hands of corrupt members of parliament.
Just when you thought christianity had reached peak hypocrisy, Trump inspires a new breed of hypocrite.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/religion/2020/10/26/trump-christian-nationalism-patriot-church/
The long and winding road to an ICAC
What will it take for the major political parties to finally acquiesce to the establishment of an independent federal anti-corruption body?
The latest excuse for the government’s long delay in unveiling its proposed national anti-corruption commission is that its members can’t walk and chew gum at the same time. They are so busy signing off on the highest levels of public spending ever seen in this country they don’t have time to put in place a mechanism to ensure the billions of dollars finish up where they were meant to go. Really?
And its not just this government. Both the Coalition and the ALP have steadfastly refused to act when in government despite repeated opportunities over many years. While individual MPs are happy to talk the talk, especially when in opposition, when push comes to shove – as it did last year when a Greens bill for a federal anti-corruption body was passed in the Senate – nobody walks the walk. Labor was not unduly perturbed when the government used its lower house majority to stop the bill being put to a vote.
Labor and the Coalition had both previously voted against similar Greens bills in the Senate in 2009, 2016, 2017, and 2018. A private members bill, moved on Monday by Indi independent Dr Helen Haines, calling for an Australian federal integrity commission will almost certainly meet a similar fate.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6985537/the-long-and-winding-road-to-an-icac/
The track record of the two establishment parties speaks for itself.
C@tmomma @ #3 Tuesday, October 27th, 2020 – 7:31 am
C@t, did you even read the story before you posted it?
“A 32-year-old male New Zealand National, who normally resides in Queensland, was granted approval to enter Western Australia for work purposes via the G2G Pass system.”
The Lincoln Project heads into the straight with what looks like final (heart string pulling) summaries of the candidates:
Trump
https://youtu.be/8QGat1WxC14
Biden
https://youtu.be/LFdXzUsrhyo
BITB
[I think this says a lot about how willing some are to turning a blind eye to corruption and why public figures think they can get away with it.]
Not necessarily. It may mean some regard the association with Maguire, however described, as not decisive in determining approval or disapproval.
As well the changeability of the views of the 20% is not known.
It will be interesting to see if the Victorian settings and response gets replicated throughout Europe then the world.
It’s hardest being the first to get something like this done. I reckon other locations will look at what we have achieved and try to replicate it (if they have any sense). It’s much easier knowing that it can be done as well…
No beer and donuts trending on twitter.
RealMarkNewton
@NewtonMark
·
58m
Australia: “DONUTS! OMG YEAH! HOLY SHIT WELL DONE! DOOONUUUUTS!!!!”
Rest of the world: “
Exclamation question mark
”
😀
Hope they do more than just ponder:
GOP senators pondering action if Trump loses and refuses to step down, Carl Bernstein says.
https://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/ny-carl-bernstein-says-gop-senators-worried-trump-fight-vote-20201026-glq6grr7wzg6xnftvbmvk2dm5e-story.html?outputType=amp&__twitter_impression=true
And for those who attribute blame for aged care deaths to the Andrews govt.
The majority of deaths occurred in commonwealth privately run centres.
The state had to step in to manage the infection control.
The feds have blood on Their hands with this.
They did not audit or go in and ensure that the centres were complying with regulations. They weren’t btw. Cos the state run centres had control.
Of course the media and the fibs want everyone to ignore this truth
Spray @ #73 Tuesday, October 27th, 2020 – 6:26 am
Mining workers have always been able to come and go for work purposes through our border.
In NSW voter land, Gladys has enormous support, most particularly with female voters. In this echo chamber – which seems ALP pre-disposed, and Victorian centric, you don’t seem to get it. She is seen as capable and competent and has partnered with a very efficient health regime, under Dr Kerry Chant, to deliver a world leading response to the pandemic. That’s the reality.
Outside of Victoria, the country is changing quickly and inexorably, away from union dominated workforces, and NSW is leading that charge. The genie won’t go back into the bottle. I think the NSW ALP under Minns would get this more quickly. But with Jodie, at best they are treading water.
Confessions @ #80 Tuesday, October 27th, 2020 – 9:35 am
Yeah I know. That’s my point.
ItzaDream,
Thank you for posting those Lincoln Project clips. They know their audience. I watched the Trump one to the end. But I clicked pause 22 seconds into the Biden one. The “stirring” self-congratulatory nationalism got to me. It’s not trying to appeal to me, I know. 🙂
Rattenbury says Greens are gunning for three spots in cabinet
ACT Greens leader Shane Rattenbury says the party should be entitled to three ministers in cabinet after winning six seats.
The party will not be gunning for the deputy chief minister role in negotiations with Labor, but Mr Rattenbury appears open to serving as attorney-general.
Labor and the Greens are nutting out the details of a parliamentary agreement to form government, but Mr Rattenbury says he won’t be using “megaphone diplomacy” to negotiate.
“I think it’s useful we go into today’s discussions with open minds,” Mr Rattenbury said.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6985219/rattenbury-says-greens-are-gunning-for-three-spots-in-cabinet/
https://www.theage.com.au/national/abc-news-boss-warns-staff-against-focus-on-inner-city-left-wing-elites-20201023-p56849.html
There are a lot more people living in inner cities accepting science than those in far north Queensland denying it.
And I am not sure asking a news organization to deal in fairy tails is the way to go. We have Murdoch offering that.
The feds promised a covid-safe application that would allow us to open up and then went on and on that Victoria tracing was not up to scratch. If the covid-safe application was anything close to useful Victoria would have had to contribute anything to tracing.
Tracing another big fat commonwealth failure.
Newscorp getting desperate?
This is the kind of cooperation we should have expected from the fed gov.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1320775767782031361
short video. Warning – dogs!
30 million dollars for a 3 million dollar block of land.
250 million dolls for minister to doll out without parliament approval.
AS a cover up the PM gets upset that Australia Post/CEO Christine Holgate hands out watches instead of paying overtime to those that worked hard to make post offices viable.
Morrison is taking corruption to a whole new level, that is for sure.
Hmm, I don’t seem to remember Gladys Berejiklian achieving world-wide headlines for her supposedly ‘world leading response to the pandemic’. Like Dan Andrews and Brett Sutton have.
Maybe moderate could point them out to me? I do admit, being as I am a resident of the Central Coast of NSW maybe I’ve missed them in my overview of the media?
Surprise, surprise!
Shame we didnt have a proper Banking RC with strong followup action, as the was the Greens’ original policy before it was adopted by the parties of the establishment and deliberately watered down to be as ineffective as possible.
There’s little doubt that there’s growing public support for a federal corruption commission, one with teeth, not the one proposed by Morrison.
Most are pissed off by the manner in which mostly Tory parliamentarians steal from the public purse – this presenting in two forms: personal financial gain and pork-barrelling. Labor should agitate for an ICAC to the hilt and reject one that is merely window dressing. I think it would be a vote winner, along with its child-care policy.
FDOTM with an unusually grim warning …
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct/26/its-your-regular-arctic-death-spiral-update-with-brenda-the-civil-disobedience-penguin
“If you are still alive in say 10 or 20 years time you might look back fondly at this time when all you had to worry about was grinding poverty, systemic murderous discrimination, corrupt politicians and deadly viruses. You might.”
You’re probably more worried about the financial mismanagement of your local ALP/Greens council C@tommma – but I’d suggest a review of the death rates in NSW compared to Victoria might be a useful starting point? Last time I checked it was 60 vs 820.
C@t
I wondered about “world leading” too. Gladys is treading the Morrison path in almost all her remarks.
Coe has run his race
https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/alistair-coe-won-t-stand-for-liberal-leadership-deputy-says-after-act-election-loss/ar-BB1apLXq?ocid=msedgntp
So when has Murdoch ever criticised Morrison?
Sky and Credlin determined to hold the line against Victoria.