Two polls and a by-election date

Daniel Andrews continues to keep his head above water, despite waning patience with Victoria’s lockdown measures.

Opinion poll and by-election developments:

• Roy Morgan has published another of its SMS polls from Victoria, which records little change on state voting intention from a fortnight ago: Labor leads 51.5-48.5 on two-party preferred, as they did last time, from primary votes of Labor 40% (up one), Coalition 36% (down one) and Greens 9% (down one). Daniel Andrews records a 59-41 approval/disapproval split, in from 61-39 last time. However, support for existing lockdown measures is fast dissipating: there is now a 73-27 split in favour of allowing visits to immediate family members (out from 59-41 last time and 55-45 three weeks previously); 62-38 in favour of allowing table service (56-44 in favour last time and 63-37 against the time before); and 72-28 in favour of relaxing the five kilometre rule (61-39 in favour last time, 50-50 the time before). The poll was conducted Monday and Tuesday from a sample of 899 for voting intention and 1163 for the lockdown questions.

• The Australian had results from a further question on the weekend’s Newspoll yesterday, which found 54% were more concerned about moving too quickly to relax lockdowns and restrictions, down two from mid-September, and 43% were more concerned about moving too slowly at the expense of the economy, jobs and mental wellbeing (up four).

• The date for the Groom by-election has been set at November 28.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,416 comments on “Two polls and a by-election date”

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  1. From Twitter Support

    “Twitter has been down for many of you and we’re working to get it back up and running for everyone.

    We had some trouble with our internal systems and don’t have any evidence of a security breach or hack.”

  3. John Quiggan nails it in this article …

    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/china-tightens-the-screws-on-australian-coal-imports,14410

    Among our existing markets for coal, China is therefore the only one with any realistic growth prospects in thermal coal. The same is true of metallurgical coal used in making steel, where China dominates world production. More importantly, as divestment becomes the norm for financial institutions around the world, China is the main source of significant new finance for coal mines and coal-fired power stations. That includes Australian coal miners like Whitehaven, as well as developments associated with the Belt and Road Initiative.

    The longer Australia relies on coal exports, the more dependent on China we will become. The current stoppage of imports will probably pass, but it is a reminder of our uncomfortable position. There is a striking inconsistency between the Morrison Government’s strident talk about national sovereignty and an energy policy which undermines that sovereignty.

    Let’s just ignore for a moment that demonizing China is an utterly stupid thing to do when your economy is so dependent on exports to them.

    The larger problem is that neither of our major political parties yet seems ready to acknowledge that the luck of the “Lucky Country” may finally be coming to a grinding halt – especially in light of a possible (I wouldn’t yet say probable) Biden victory in the US election, which will increase the speed of the shift away from fossil fuels. Both major parties seem to have their hands firmly over their ears and instead just continue to spout the same old nonsense, most recently about how we are the verge of becoming a “renewables superpower”.

    Yeah, right. Just like we always seem to be on the verge of becoming be the food bowl of Asia. This is a fantasy intended to prevent change, not a call to embrace change.

    The truth is that we cannot put off the task of diversifying and modernizing our moribund fossil-fueled economy for much longer, but neither major party seems to want begin the difficult task of addressing it. The Labor party even seems to be willing to concede the next election in order to avoid it.

  4. Fun Fact: Phil Coorey became interested in politics when he used to tag along with his dad to Macquarie St whenever he went up to measure the newly-minted politicians for their bespoke tailored suits. His father owned the Gentlemans Outfitters store on the corner of George St and Market St., just a hop, skip and a jump away from the NSW Parliament. I used to pass it every afternoon on the way home from school as I went to the honey shop next door for some free honey-tasting before I got on the train at Town Hall station. 🙂

  5. More idle questions. Is Morrison still “stranded” in Cairns? Is that bad plane fixed yet? How long can he hide? I’ve been thinking recently about opponents and tactics. When Morrison drops off the radar for days at a time then pops up again with a swagger or two, that is a tactic to unsettle your opponent and delight your audience. It’s a shell game. Where’s the pea? Shuffle. Shuffle. Ah. Here it is.

  6. Honestly, if Twitter took a day to purge itself of all the Russian or otherwise, bot accounts, in the run-up to the Presidential election, then I would be more than satisfied to wait for them to do that.

    Still, #crookedjoebiden is a bit of a lame old dog of a hashtag, isn’t it? Hmm, where have I heard that before? Oh yes, #crookedhillaryclinton. Which turned out to be a load of old malarkey from Russia and Trump. Same same now.

  8. I went to Cairns last month from SA- flew in, flew out (after changing my flights a few times), did zoom calls etc…..didnt seem that hard?

  9. Elephant stamps all round today. 🐘🐘🐘

    Currently showing on SBS World Movies is .

    The children of Ballydowse and Carrickdowse engage in battles where they cut of the buttons, shoe-laces and underwear of their captured opponents. This is to get the boys in trouble with their parents. They go to battle in mass groups of dozens, throwing stones and cutting off their opponents buttons etc. And sometimes they go to battle completely naked and exposed. In one such scene about 30 boys return from a battle to celebrate victory at a barn-house only to find some girls waiting for them and they get very embarrassed at losing their privacy.

    No car chases, no blown up buildings, no gunfights. Simply delightful.
    Excellent fare getting me ready for Bathurst motor racing where I have been hoping to see one of those Australia Post three wheelers fitted with a V8 motor careering down Conrod straight.

    Toodle-oo ❗

  10. Morrison has a security detail. He could have travelled commercial. I’m sure there’s been a flight out of there already in the last 12 hours.

    Anyway, we all know he doesn’t want to be around while Gladys Berejiklian gets the royal order of the boot.

  11. Victoria says:
    Friday, October 16, 2020 at 8:48 am
    C@t

    As I said. Self loathing works for me. What else explains it.

    Trump personifies resentment of values/classes/exemplars that represent threats/humiliations for the white underclass. To the ill-educated he stands for rebellion against knowledge and the power that goes with it. To the white, rural and small town worker – the hillbillies of today – he stands against urban financial and political dominance. And to poor whites, he is repudiation of blacks and asians and latinos. He is reaction against change and the threats that go with it.

    Trump does not appeal to the self-loathers. He appeals to those who fear, resent, and mistrust “the other”. In this respect he is an exponent of xenophobia-in-one-country.

    His weirdness is a part of the act. He is show business taken to Washington. It says a great deal about our communication in the era of mass media that actors (he is an actor) who practice fantasy are accepted as substitutes for politicians, who are universally believed to practice deceit.

    Trump is nearly all make believe. Everything can be changed by making wishes if you’re a Trump.

  12. Ah, so that’s what ProMo would rather be doing. Turning up to the Bathurst Races. I bet that’s where we see his smirking mien next.

  13. The icac feed is now zooming in on Maguire’s defense team listening to the phone call taps.

    Is this to prove that Maguire’s defense has no excuse to claim they did not hear it ?

  14. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-16/coronacheck-liberal-national-party-unemployment-queensland-covid/12770182
    I can commend a read of this fact check article.

    It starts by looking at unemployment rates comparing Victoria and Queensland, and the effect of JobKeeper on the statistics.

    “because of JobKeeper, many people who aren’t working during the lockdown are still counted as employed”

    Victoria accounted for 60 per cent (112,000 people) of those Australians working zero hours in September but who the bureau considers as still being employed.

    But then it switches gears and looks into lockdowns.

    “The only time we believe a lockdown is justified is to buy you time to reorganise, regroup, rebalance your resources; protect your health workers who are exhausted,” Dr Nabarro said. “But by and large, we’d rather not do it.”

    Fingers crossed for Victoria, that you can lift some of your restrictions soon.

  16. C@tmomma @ #1099 Friday, October 16th, 2020 – 7:38 am

    Fun Fact: Phil Coorey became interested in politics when he used to tag along with his dad to Macquarie St whenever he went up to measure the newly-minted politicians for their bespoke tailored suits. His father owned the Gentlemans Outfitters store on the corner of George St and Market St., just a hop, skip and a jump away from the NSW Parliament. I used to pass it every afternoon on the way home from school as I went to the honey shop next door for some free honey-tasting before I got on the train at Town Hall station. 🙂

    Interesting.
    I knew Phil at Flinders Uni in SA where we were both studying science.

  17. Shellbell says:
    Friday, October 16, 2020 at 10:52 am
    Scott

    That is some or all of part of the Premier’s team.

    ———–

    Thanks Shellbell

    Didn’t know, the premier had a team there

  24. Queensland election: Annastacia Palaszczuk won’t rule out her ministers taking part in further cash for access fundraising events

    …ASX-listed Tabcorp paid Labor $11,000 on August 4, three days before the fundraiser where it met with Ms D’Ath, who regulates gambling in the state through the Office of Liquor and Gaming.

    Only five of Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk’s ministers declared interactions with donors at Labor’s Business Partnership Program event, after Ms Palas­zczuk’s office told them they needed only to disclose “formal” meetings about their portfolios, a relaxation of expectations from previous years.

    The Australian understands at least two ministers failed to declare in their ministerial diaries contact with donors at the Aug­ust 7 event, with the government refusing to disclose meetings it considers “casual,” held standing up rather than sitting down, or unrelated to ministers’ portfolios.

    Ms Palaszczuk has this week attacked LNP leader Deb Frecklington over property developers attending her political fundraisers, demanding she give a full explanation of whom she met.

    Crime and Corruption Commission chair Alan MacSporran has also warned all candidates about the “blurring lines” between government and business, including lobbyists, consultants, influencers and executives.

    The Business Partnerships fundraiser — which KPMG shelled out $27,500 to host at the Brisbane Convention and Exhibition Centre — also sold access to Environment Minister Leeanne Enoch to oil and gas producer Santos, transport fuel company QER and mining lobby the Queensland Resources Council.

    Oil refining company Southern Oil bought access to Housing, Public Works and Sport Minister Mick de Brenni, while Employment and Small Business Minister Shannon Fentiman met with donors from the Taxi Council of Queensland, Cotton Australia and the Pharmacy Guild.

    Ms Palaszczuk visited Southern Oil’s Gladstone refinery on Wednesday…

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/qld-labor-sold-access-to-ag-to-gambling-giant/news-story/bff4f2d52f010e76cd9b3b976917c4ad

  25. My very limited, and getting more limited by the day, view of Coorey is that he barely controls his rage.

    That insousciant, shrug-of-the-shoulders, no-big-deal performance he effects on Insiders is a very thin veneer indeed. He is a seethingly angry man, who doesn’t like members of the public (aka “his readers”) disagreeing with the products of his “Hard-Bitten Professional” analysis.

    Like most of the journalistic profession here in Australia Coorey is the product of a pond to small for the Big Fishes who wish to swim in it. Unlike the media in other, more diverse countries, in Australia we have no middle ranks. There are juniors who do the door-stops, and seniors who sit back and wait for The Drip, with few honest brokers in between.

    Politics is not seen as a noble profession, but as a gonzo cesspit, all Game and no Aim. Rather than root out a story the Big Fish wait for it to be fed to them, usually with a helpful spin on the facts included included in the purchase price.

    Because they’re so fucking lazy, the seniors turn their obsession with name-dropping and insider contacts, and with how the game is played (aka “The Politics”) into the actual story. They trick their readers into accepting that a set of circumstances which only appears to represent a situation, IS the situation. They report on how politicians will spin something a certain way without the slightest self-awareness or recognition that THEY are the ones who will be responsible for peddling that very spin; that without their compliance, the spin might be able to be spun in the opposite direction, and we might get some truth, or honesty.

    A phrase, for example, like “This won’t play well in the Western Suburbs” uttered by a media commentator on a public television program that is being watched live by viewers in the Western Suburbs is not a prediction, or a report on opinion in the Western Suburbs. It’s an instruction to people in the Western Suburbs as to how they are to behave and react to the story. It’s like a carnival card shark explaining exactly how he is going to cheat you, and then still expecting you to allow yourself to be cheated, and to actually appreciate the experience… mostly succeeding, too!

    Coorey fancies himself as a master at it. Hence he gets shitty when you ping him for it.

    He is not alone in holding this attitude.

  27. Holdenhillbilly

    I cannot understand why, when Dan has promised that there will be an announcement on relaxing restrictions on Sunday, there is so much urging to “do it immediately.” So immature.

  31. “I think Firefox needs to go find the plot. He’s lost it.”

    ***

    lol, you’re so funny sometimes, Cat. Obsessed much? 😀

    Coming from someone who blindly follows and regurgitates the establishment’s plot every single day – even when it requires them to support war criminals who are responsible for up to two and a half million deaths – I will take that as a compliment.

  42. Maguire gave Waterhouse , Gladys email address and told her to write directly to Gladys, about the project Gladys denys she knows about

  47. McGuire: “I didn’t regard Ms Waterhouse as a Property Developer. She just wanted to develop the property. It was grazing land.”

    !!! 😆

  50. Yes, the Green Party in the US want Trump to win.

    Here’s a true story that will gladden Firefox’s heart:

    In the lead-up to the 2000 presidential election, the Green Party was struggling to get their candidate (Ralph Nader) on the ballot in some states. They were short of signatures. So where did Green Party supporters go to get the extra signatures? Truck stops. Truckers tend to be hard-core Republican voters, and Green Party supporters told the truckers that in the upcoming election every vote for Nader was one less vote for Gore.

    The Green Party got their signatures.

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