Two polls and a by-election date

Daniel Andrews continues to keep his head above water, despite waning patience with Victoria’s lockdown measures.

Opinion poll and by-election developments:

• Roy Morgan has published another of its SMS polls from Victoria, which records little change on state voting intention from a fortnight ago: Labor leads 51.5-48.5 on two-party preferred, as they did last time, from primary votes of Labor 40% (up one), Coalition 36% (down one) and Greens 9% (down one). Daniel Andrews records a 59-41 approval/disapproval split, in from 61-39 last time. However, support for existing lockdown measures is fast dissipating: there is now a 73-27 split in favour of allowing visits to immediate family members (out from 59-41 last time and 55-45 three weeks previously); 62-38 in favour of allowing table service (56-44 in favour last time and 63-37 against the time before); and 72-28 in favour of relaxing the five kilometre rule (61-39 in favour last time, 50-50 the time before). The poll was conducted Monday and Tuesday from a sample of 899 for voting intention and 1163 for the lockdown questions.

• The Australian had results from a further question on the weekend’s Newspoll yesterday, which found 54% were more concerned about moving too quickly to relax lockdowns and restrictions, down two from mid-September, and 43% were more concerned about moving too slowly at the expense of the economy, jobs and mental wellbeing (up four).

• The date for the Groom by-election has been set at November 28.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,416 comments on “Two polls and a by-election date”

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  1. That’s a shame.

    It is, made worse by Crows fans gloating like fat vultures over Ports loss being their win. Very primitive thinking.

  2. So this is the dirty deal that Gladys fucking Berejiklian has done with the Nationals with regards to Koala habitat:

    After a bruising political battle that saw Gladys Berejiklian impose her authority over state Nationals, NSW Liberals have quietly backed down, supporting a bill to weaken planned reforms designed to protect koalas on privately-owned farmland.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/liberals-back-down-on-koalas-after-barilaro-bluster-20201016-p565uf.html

    Weak. As. Piss. I’m disgusted. That woman has no ethics.

  4. E. G. Theodore @ #1621 Friday, October 16th, 2020 – 2:32 pm

    rhwombat:

    … (particularly on the inconvenient fact that it was senior Vic Police who refused to do hotel quarantine security in that missing 6 minutes). …

    That’s interesting – what more do you know about this?

    I thought it very odd that Mr Ashton the (now retired) Vic Police Commissioner would start most text messages with “Mate, …”. Who does this in texts? – it adds no information and takes time…

    And why was Mr Ashton texting a senior AFP officer? apparently with the assumption that the AFP would be implementing the quarantine? This is utterly bizarre – AFP are good at complicated stuff but hopeless at day to day policing due to complete lack of experience, and all of them know this (including the AFP, who thus delegate stuff like control order enforcement to states). AFP would have been the absolute worst choice and it’s hard to believe they were suggested.

    What happened between text in which it was mooted AFP involved and text conforming they weren’t? (followed by “that’s new” from the AFP officer…). Has Mr Ashton been played?

    EGT:

    Having been been involved in planning & execution of emergency civil (& other) responses to biological agents (here & elsewhere) since the 90’s, I’m fairly familiar with the “caution & reluctance” that most, if not all, police & military agencies bring to involvement with infectious diseases. This applies to SARS-CoV-2 as much as it does with biological agents like anthrax & smallpox. Quarantine & “Civil Defence” against biological agents is anathema to most agencies – including the clinical ones.

    Some of this reluctance was a consequence of the fallout from compulsory vaccination of US forces in Gulf War 1 (Desert Storm) for anthrax and smallpox, but was amplified by the Amerithrax incident (& the “Dark Winter” Exercise) in 2001. The 1972 Biological Weapons Convention (ironically one of Nixon’s legacies) sums up what most (sane) people & organisations understand – with biological weapons, everyone loses.

    Plans around large scale infectious diseases outbreaks tend to be theoretical exercises not boots on ground for very good reasons. Most senior police (and police unions) are very aware (and avoidant) of these problems and the murky politics around mass quarantine. Like most armed forces the ADF are (deliberately) extremely limited in their CBW capability, and mostly operate by enforced exclusion and quarantine that cannot be practiced in civilian settings. So much for Scummo from Marketing’s political figleaf.

    I understand that “extreme reluctance” to countenance enforcing quarantine by Vic Police is at the core of the Victorian dilemma – that and the post-hoc political games by Abbott’s Nanny and other rabid Murdorc scum.

  5. The more I reflect on Phil Cooreys latest crap, the more pissed off I am.
    The media have been absolutely disgusting as far as the state 0f Victoria and covid is concerned.

    He can go and f himself.

  7. Weak. As. Piss. I’m disgusted. That woman has no ethics.

    I think just… weak.

    No real friends. A spiv for a lover. Barilaro, full of political testosterone, on the rampage. Wrong party faction. Lonely. Isolated. Female.

    And now, on top of all this, Scott Morrison has given her his “full support”.

    A toxic cocktail indeed for Gladys.

    NSW has lost its Deputy Premier to (what used to be called) “a nervous breakdown”.

    Its Premier is on the skids. Goodwill alone is keeping her in place.

    Its Treasurer is up to his armpits in the iCare scandal.

    The religious nutjobs and fascist assassins are circling.

    Anarchy for NSW is just around the corner.

  8. Simon,

    Most Crows fans were sick and tired of this crap being their 150th year. Their level of arrogance.

    I had $20 on Port to win the flag as a consolation for being a Crows supporter. To see them lose, I still win. We win a spoon, who cares. We have the pick 1 and pick 8 plus possibly pick 2. Our recovery is underway.

    Sometimes karma is a bitch. It was this time for them.

  11. Maybe the Democrats and other centre-left parties around the world ought to select better candidates, but if the choice is between such less-than-perfect politicians and the insanity of far rightwing policy, then surely the choice ought to be clear.

    When the choices are utterly corrupt, slightly less corrupt, and legitimately good, don’t be surprised that some voters will vote for the good. You have your reasons for supporting a slightly less corrupt option but please don’t shame other voters for supporting parties that make a forceful case for progressive change.

    A key difference between you and me is that I don’t shame the “lesser of two evils” voters. In America’s electoral system that line of reasoning has merit. But it is not unambiguously the best option. Centrist politicians are bone lazy and immensely arrogant. They have a long history of taking voters for granted. If you vote for the lesser of two evils you reward that behaviour. That is a significant downside to voting that way.

    In Australia’s electoral system it makes less sense to vote on “lesser of two evils” grounds because we have preferential voting. But at the end of the day, no matter what the electoral system is, candidates need to appeal to voters on policy. They should not engage in voter-shaming. They should not blame Russia, the FBI, racism, sexism, and all manner of factors other than their own failure to present compelling policies.

  12. Nicholas says:
    Friday, October 16, 2020 at 9:19 pm
    Centrists don’t understand that their preferred candidate isn’t entitled to anybody’s vote. If a voter is ambivalent about supporting a candidate, the onus is on that candidate to win over the voter. If the candidate fails to do this, that’s on them.

    Blaming voters for the electoral failures of candidates like Hillary Clinton and Al Gore is a tactic used by people who have contempt for elections.

    This is complete f!g rubbish. No one is “blaming voters”….well, no one other the the daily Faux, FF, who has nothing but contempt for voters.

    The Faux run interference for the Right. They’re fully entitled to do that. They’re equally entitled to their share of the responsibility when the Right win. As they do. The Faux have negative net intellectual worth. They are the urgers and free-loaders of democratic politics. Fuck them.

  13. The Faux purport to ache for change. But by their deeds shall we know them. They canvas for the Right all the time. They are pretenders and pranksters. They are, like Trump, deceivers and dissemblers. Their efforts are bent towards the success of the Right in nearly every case. To work for change together with those also seek it is entirely beneath them. They are the conceits, the snobs, the sneering parsons of democracy. Fuck them.

  14. Boris stuffs up the Covid response badly and now tells Brits that it’s probably a no-deal Brexit.

    British Prime Minister Boris Johnson says it’s time to prepare for a no-trade deal Brexit as the European Union refuses to negotiate seriously and unless Brussels changes course there will be no agreement.

    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6971220/uk-pm-says-prepare-for-no-deal-brexit/?cs=14232&utm_source=website&utm_medium=home&utm_campaign=latestnews

  15. citizen @ #1413 Friday, October 16th, 2020 – 10:30 pm

    Boris stuffs up the Covid response badly and now tells Brits that it’s probably a no-deal Brexit.

    British Prime Minister Boris Johnson says it’s time to prepare for a no-trade deal Brexit as the European Union refuses to negotiate seriously and unless Brussels changes course there will be no agreement.

    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6971220/uk-pm-says-prepare-for-no-deal-brexit/?cs=14232&utm_source=website&utm_medium=home&utm_campaign=latestnews

    A Boris Brexit tantrum indeed. And Britain will have to wear it. There’s symmetry in all those port-a-loos, if only I was clever enough to see it.
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/oct/14/roadside-portable-loos-planned-for-lorry-drivers-delayed-by-brexit-checks

    And this logic is right up there with, “It’s your fault. You made me do it.”

    The first thing to say is the trade talks are over. The EU have effectively ended them by saying they do not want to change their negotiating position. The EU can either fundamentally change their position or we can leave on Australian terms.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2020/oct/16/uk-coronavirus-live-boris-johnson-local-restrictions-lockdown-tier-2-covid-brexit-latest-updates

    I thought they wanted Canadian terms? Oh well, I guess it’s the European’s fault Britain will have to settle for less, Australian terms. How to make friends and get on in the world… On the upside, it seems like no-one is taking Boris seriously. Oh well. Tomorrow is another, something.

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