Two polls and a by-election date

Daniel Andrews continues to keep his head above water, despite waning patience with Victoria’s lockdown measures.

Opinion poll and by-election developments:

• Roy Morgan has published another of its SMS polls from Victoria, which records little change on state voting intention from a fortnight ago: Labor leads 51.5-48.5 on two-party preferred, as they did last time, from primary votes of Labor 40% (up one), Coalition 36% (down one) and Greens 9% (down one). Daniel Andrews records a 59-41 approval/disapproval split, in from 61-39 last time. However, support for existing lockdown measures is fast dissipating: there is now a 73-27 split in favour of allowing visits to immediate family members (out from 59-41 last time and 55-45 three weeks previously); 62-38 in favour of allowing table service (56-44 in favour last time and 63-37 against the time before); and 72-28 in favour of relaxing the five kilometre rule (61-39 in favour last time, 50-50 the time before). The poll was conducted Monday and Tuesday from a sample of 899 for voting intention and 1163 for the lockdown questions.

• The Australian had results from a further question on the weekend’s Newspoll yesterday, which found 54% were more concerned about moving too quickly to relax lockdowns and restrictions, down two from mid-September, and 43% were more concerned about moving too slowly at the expense of the economy, jobs and mental wellbeing (up four).

• The date for the Groom by-election has been set at November 28.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,416 comments on “Two polls and a by-election date”

Comments Page 25 of 29
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  2. and sued for defamation more times than I can count

    His case has merit. Lee can probably count to a higher number than that. 🙂

  7. Firefix
    “I am calling on the American people to remove Donald Trump from office and elect Howie Hawkins as the 46th President of the United States.”

    Vote for Howie – and help Biden lose. Somehow that will help remove Trump. Makes perfect sense!

  10. O was it the other way around ? Not a good look anyway.
    ……………………………………………………………………………………………
    MP gives Albanese visit a miss

    Anthony Albanese visited the NSW Hunter Valley on Thursday but the region’s most senior MP, Joel Fitzgibbon, visited a school and childcare centre instead.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/joel-fitzgibbon-gives-anthony-albanese-visit-to-his-nsw-electorate-a-miss/news-story/aea1327b3ab434d35a76389e57b86d17

  14. So far in todays ICAC hearing , there has been some very important evidence which has been missing

    How many glasses of Red , did Maguire drink

  15. Professor Cheng conceded on Thursday that the truck driver “would have been picked up” had Victoria been using the third ring approach — like other states — when the Chadstone outbreak occurred.
    “We weren’t doing the contact of contacts approach, but that’s something we’re doing now,” he said.
    ________________
    Always behind the bloody eight ball. Why are we still so poor at contact tracing compared to the other states.

  16. From Firefox:

    I am calling on the American people to remove Donald Trump from office and elect Howie Hawkins as the 46th President of the United States.

    What a giant of an imagination.

    Firefox’s position boils down to supporting a candidate who has no hope – a snowflake in Hell would have a better chance – and to whom every vote is an effective vote for Trump, because it is not a vote for the only person who can beat Trump, in an election that could not be more important, not only for America, but for the world.

    If ever there was a more perfect illustration of the futility of the Greens fairies-in-the-bottom-of-the-garden approach to politics, it’s utter naiveity at best, and its wilful, black cynicism at worst, this is it.

  17. Just catching up, let me add my name to the list of those who’ve been blocked by Coorey on Twitter. I hardly ever post a thing there, so it actually took me quite a while to understand that I’d been blocked.

    My offence was to comment on a Coorey post about the recent Lindy Chamberlain documentary. I asked if Phil thought that the media had played a role in the public pre-judgment of the Chamberlains.

    It wasn’t shouty or aggressive and wasn’t meant to be offensive, but apparently it was too much for poor old Phil. Not sure how long he’d last on PB.

  19. Taylormade………always whinging and singing the Liberal song – off tune…..Not quite as boring as Nath was but fighting hard for this honour…

  22. rhwombat:

    … (particularly on the inconvenient fact that it was senior Vic Police who refused to do hotel quarantine security in that missing 6 minutes). …

    That’s interesting – what more do you know about this?

    I thought it very odd that Mr Ashton the (now retired) Vic Police Commissioner would start most text messages with “Mate, …”. Who does this in texts? – it adds no information and takes time…

    And why was Mr Ashton texting a senior AFP officer? apparently with the assumption that the AFP would be implementing the quarantine? This is utterly bizarre – AFP are good at complicated stuff but hopeless at day to day policing due to complete lack of experience, and all of them know this (including the AFP, who thus delegate stuff like control order enforcement to states). AFP would have been the absolute worst choice and it’s hard to believe they were suggested.

    What happened between text in which it was mooted AFP involved and text conforming they weren’t? (followed by “that’s new” from the AFP officer…). Has Mr Ashton been played?

  23. EXCLUSIVE: AFP investigating potential criminality associated with sale of Leppington Triangle at Badgerys Creek for $30million, ten times the appraised value. More details on #7News @7NewsAustralia

  24. Taylormade @ #1212 Friday, October 16th, 2020 – 2:17 pm

    Professor Cheng conceded on Thursday that the truck driver “would have been picked up” had Victoria been using the third ring approach — like other states — when the Chadstone outbreak occurred.
    “We weren’t doing the contact of contacts approach, but that’s something we’re doing now,” he said.
    ________________
    Always behind the bloody eight ball. Why are we still so poor at contact tracing compared to the other states.

    2 new cases
    0 deaths
    #facts

    Daniel Andrews just gets better and better at these daily pressers. They can’t lay a glove on him.

  26. Player One @ #1209 Friday, October 16th, 2020 – 2:01 pm

    Steve777 @ #1210 Friday, October 16th, 2020 – 1:58 pm

    Is Joel Fitzgibbon a defection risk – someone who might go the way of Graeme Campbell, for example.

    God, I sure hope so! 🙁

    Joel is a senior member of the Labor frontbench.

    Further, Albanese is ok and has been ok with Joel for a long time.

    The fossil fuel unions – AWU, CFMEU – have a substantial influence on the leadership of Labor and its policy settings.

    These are all real facts that environmentalists are aware of when they enter the voting booths.

  27. Liberal senator James Paterson presents his colleague Senator Eric Abetz with a sticker to mark his membership of the Wolverines.

    Looks more like a fake mustache collection.

  28. Looks like a stalemate at the moment – both sides unwilling to make a move for fear of the wrong faction gaining control. So Gladys stays for the present.

    Let’s let this woman get on with doing her job’: Cabinet rallies around embattled Premier

    Senior NSW cabinet ministers have doubled down on their defence of Premier Gladys Berejiklian, insisting the Coalition remains a “strong team” united behind her leadership.

    (SMH updates)

  29. sprocket_ @ #1220 Friday, October 16th, 2020 – 2:57 pm

    EXCLUSIVE: AFP investigating potential criminality associated with sale of Leppington Triangle at Badgerys Creek for $30million, ten times the appraised value. More details on #7News @7NewsAustralia

    The AFP are a joke of an organisation when it comes to politically related investigations.

  30. What a weak and pitiful politician is Michael O’Brien.

    It says a lot about the basket case behind him that he is the leader.

    The Vic Libs are truly pathetic.

  31. citizen says:
    Friday, October 16, 2020 at 3:12 pm
    Looks like a stalemate at the moment – both sides unwilling to make a move for fear of the wrong faction gaining control. So Gladys stays for the present.

    Let’s let this woman get on with doing her job’: Cabinet rallies around embattled Premier

    Senior NSW cabinet ministers have doubled down on their defence of Premier Gladys Berejiklian, insisting the Coalition remains a “strong team” united behind her leadership.

    ——————-

    Some of those (treasurer , Constance) who supporting Gladys were also mention in deals which involved Maguire

    So if gladys go , their jobs should be in doubt

  32. Scott @ #1228 Friday, October 16th, 2020 – 3:20 pm

    citizen says:
    Friday, October 16, 2020 at 3:12 pm
    Looks like a stalemate at the moment – both sides unwilling to make a move for fear of the wrong faction gaining control. So Gladys stays for the present.

    Let’s let this woman get on with doing her job’: Cabinet rallies around embattled Premier

    Senior NSW cabinet ministers have doubled down on their defence of Premier Gladys Berejiklian, insisting the Coalition remains a “strong team” united behind her leadership.

    ——————-

    Some of those (treasurer , Constance) who supporting Gladys were also mention in deals which involved Maguire

    So if gladys go , their jobs should in doubt

    The next lot of NSW state polling will be most interesting to see if there’s any indication the voters are thawing on NSW Labor.

  33. And I’m going to agree

    Paul Barratt
    @phbarratt
    ·
    2h
    I’m going to venture the opinion that whatever prevented #ScottyFromMarketing from convening a so-called “National Cabinet meeting today, it wasn’t an incapacity for RAAF to move the Prime Minister to where he needs to be, nor lack of capability to set up secure communications.

  34. Rex D

    I think he’s trying to sound more positive in the Age piece, but of course he has the weight of the Fed Libs to bear. 😉

  35. Samantha Maiden
    @samanthamaiden
    ·
    14m
    Look, this is very unfortunate it appears that Daryl Maguire also dropped a USB near his farm gates and it got run over too. We’ve previously heard of a terrible tractor accident with an iPad

    “You deliberately lost it,” Mr Roberston asks.

    “No,” Mr Maguire replies

  36. Rex Douglas says:
    Friday, October 16, 2020 at 3:22 pm

    The next lot of NSW state polling will be most interesting to see if there’s any indication the voters are thawing on NSW Labor.

    ————————————————–

    Yes, if the voters are not gullible there should be swing away from the libs/nats

    If the voters are gullible they will condone this corrupt behaviour

  39. Victoria @ #1233 Friday, October 16th, 2020 – 2:56 pm

    And I’m going to agree

    Paul Barratt
    @phbarratt
    ·
    2h
    I’m going to venture the opinion that whatever prevented #ScottyFromMarketing from convening a so-called “National Cabinet meeting today, it wasn’t an incapacity for RAAF to move the Prime Minister to where he needs to be, nor lack of capability to set up secure communications.

    What state was Morrison in?

  42. 😆 Gold medal if he kept a straight face.
    .
    .
    Robertson asks Maguire about a USB stick which contained data from his parliamentary devices.

    Maguire says instead that he “dropped it at the farm gate and it got run over several times”.

    But he says it wasn’t deliberate

  46. What can you say ???

    Jair Bolsonaro’s efforts to portray himself as an anti-corruption crusader have suffered another blow after police reportedly seized a wad of banknotes from between the clenched buttocks of one of his allies.

    Chico Rodrigues, the Brazilian president’s deputy leader in the senate, was reportedly caught with the concealed bundle on Wednesday during a police search of his home. The raid was part of an operation against the suspected misappropriation of public funds for fighting Covid-19.

    The Estado de São Paulo newspaper said two sources told it 30,000 reais (more than £4,100) were stashed in the underpants of Rodrigues, a senator for the Amazon state of Roraima.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/15/brazil-police-cash-jair-bolsonaro-ally-buttocks-chico-rodrigues

  47. Vogon Poet says:
    Friday, October 16, 2020 at 11:37 am
    Is Howie Trump’s useful idiot, or is he just as bad as Trump ?
    _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________
    I wouldn’t say he’s as bad as Trump, but he might as well be. I wouldn’t say Howie Hawkins is scheming to make sure Biden loses and we get four more years of Trump, but he might as well be.
    The fact is, all he can do is draw away enough votes from the progressive centre and that well-known war criminal that Firefox keeps fulminating about, to ensure Trump’s re-election.
    Just like what happened in 2000 when George Bush narrowly beat Al Gore in the state of Florida, thanks to the votes the then Greens candidate, Ralph Nader, had accumulated.
    It would be better if America had a different voting system, a preferential one, preferably, so this problem didn’t arise. But hell, they don’t, so any progressive casting their vote has to remember this and realise that it’s not about voting to make yourself feel you’re better than other people. It’s about practical results and realising that actions have consequences.

  48. What are the chances of the AFP investigation into the $30m airport land sale not being completed until after the next federal election?

  50. What are the chances of the AFP investigation into the $30m airport land sale not being completed until after the next federal election?

    About the same as a conflicted politician declining to comment because it’s “under investigation”.

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