Two polls and a by-election date

Daniel Andrews continues to keep his head above water, despite waning patience with Victoria’s lockdown measures.

Opinion poll and by-election developments:

• Roy Morgan has published another of its SMS polls from Victoria, which records little change on state voting intention from a fortnight ago: Labor leads 51.5-48.5 on two-party preferred, as they did last time, from primary votes of Labor 40% (up one), Coalition 36% (down one) and Greens 9% (down one). Daniel Andrews records a 59-41 approval/disapproval split, in from 61-39 last time. However, support for existing lockdown measures is fast dissipating: there is now a 73-27 split in favour of allowing visits to immediate family members (out from 59-41 last time and 55-45 three weeks previously); 62-38 in favour of allowing table service (56-44 in favour last time and 63-37 against the time before); and 72-28 in favour of relaxing the five kilometre rule (61-39 in favour last time, 50-50 the time before). The poll was conducted Monday and Tuesday from a sample of 899 for voting intention and 1163 for the lockdown questions.

• The Australian had results from a further question on the weekend’s Newspoll yesterday, which found 54% were more concerned about moving too quickly to relax lockdowns and restrictions, down two from mid-September, and 43% were more concerned about moving too slowly at the expense of the economy, jobs and mental wellbeing (up four).

• The date for the Groom by-election has been set at November 28.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,416 comments on “Two polls and a by-election date”

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  1. This is vaguely amusing. As someone who often drops small things because of stiff fingers, I don’t believe this for a second.

    Maguire says instead that he “dropped it at the farm gate and it got run over several times”.

    If he dropped the USB stick and “lost” it, how did he know he’d run over it, unless it magically rose later out of the mud?

  2. Maguire says instead that he “dropped it at the farm gate and it got run over several times”.

    Accidentally backed the tractor/ car up multiple times ??

  3. It cant be easy for the AFP to determine if it is likely further investigation will result in obtaining sufficient evidence to substantiate a commonwealth offence. Also, the low level of harm along with the significant level of resources required to investigate must weigh on them terribly.

  4. I dislike this headline.
    “PM’s plea to Daniel Andrews to set Melburnians free”

    Prime Minister Scott Morrison has pleaded with the Victorian Premier to reopen the state and go “as far as possible” when easing restrictions on Sunday.

    Praising Victorians for having “kept up their side of the bargain” and bearing the burden of the strict coronavirus lockdown measures he urged them to be allowed more freedoms.

    “At some time, you’ve got to step off the shore and start moving forward again,’’ he said.

    https://www.news.com.au/national/politics/pms-plea-to-daniel-andrews-to-set-melburnians-free/news-story/f3fbef3b71debbf2b51b40b8c7259c99#.ztrnm

  5. So surreptitiously Fifield changes the law to allow 27 million unlisted numbers to be passed to Crosby Textor obviously for electioneering – LNP is not a political party its a criminal cartel.

  7. Sadly yer honor I dropped it at the gate and ran over it with the tractor several times. You can never be too sure can you ?

  8. “PM’s plea to Daniel Andrews to set Melburnians free”

    Perhaps Premier Andrews can respond, if asked, that had the national cabinet simply met today as planned then that could have been discussed and the PM advised as to Victoria’s next steps. No 3rd party plea would have been necessary.

  10. lizzie

    He’s doing it knowing that there is almost certainly going to be some easing. Real courage to call for something just before it is going to happen. He will of course try and take some credit for “freeing his people” and even more certain be ‘disappointed’ it did not go as far as he had wished it to.

  14. lizzie @ #1258 Friday, October 16th, 2020 – 3:02 pm

    Late Riser

    Did you hear Scomo saying that there was nothing urgent to discuss at the National Cabinet?

    I can easily believe he said that but my stomach isn’t up to listening to him any more. I stopped taking him at face value a long time ago. (And the TV thanks me.) But the whole “stranded in Queensland” statement was more telling when I asked myself why being in Queensland was so awful for him.

  15. “EXCLUSIVE: AFP investigating potential criminality associated with sale of Leppington Triangle at Badgerys Creek for $30million, ten times the appraised value. More details on #7News @7NewsAustralia”

    – and Scomo breathes a sigh of relief

  16. Morrison is spooked. He has seen how Andrews dealt with Credlin. Much easier to make narky pot shots from a safe distance.

  18. “AFP investigating potential criminality associated with sale of Leppington Triangle at Badgerys Creek”

    I imagine the AFP’s prime suspects are Dan and Anastasia.

  19. Coorey on Aft Briefing defended his attack on Victorian “cult” of Andrews. Starts with praise of Gladys who has dealt perfectly with covid, but Dan “has made mistakes and people should admit it”. There is never an admission that Victoria had a different population mix and this contributed to the fast spread, as did the number of privatised Aged Homes.

  20. Bill Shorten
    @billshortenmp
    · 1h
    Software engineers are warning that the $70m #CovidSafe tracing app by @stuartrobertmp is wide open to hackers & stalkers – and is unable to be updated. Govt must detail what it plans to do. #auspol twitter.com/geoffreyhuntle…

    Word is it will be resolved by 2 Nov.

  21. lizzie @ #1266 Friday, October 16th, 2020 – 4:28 pm

    Coorey on Aft Briefing defended his attack on Victorian “cult” of Andrews. Starts with praise of Gladys who has dealt perfectly with covid, but Dan “has made mistakes and people should admit it”. There is never an admission that Victoria had a different population mix and this contributed to the fast spread, as did the number of privatised Aged Homes.

    The Daily Dans are a massive hit to the ego’s of corporate MSM filters like Coorey.

    The huge audiences that tune in to see this direct to consumer messaging are learning of the how the filters manipulate information.

  22. Simon Katich @ #1262 Friday, October 16th, 2020 – 4:19 pm

    Morrison is spooked. He has seen how Andrews dealt with Credlin. Much easier to make narky pot shots from a safe distance.

    Morrison spooked. Don’t be silly.
    Scrooter is freewheelin’ out there without a care in the world.
    The punters love ‘im, Albo’s scared of him and he’s got another term or two to serve.
    He’s pacing himself.
    Scrooter fears nothing and no one.

  23. Have a read of Phil Coorey’s piece in the Finn Review.

    Dan’s fans and Trump’s base: spot the difference

    “If people are unwilling to acknowledge error on their own side, politics collapses because there are no agreed norms.”
    “But his cult-like followers, who rally around a Twitter hashtag of #IstandwithDan and refuse to countenance any possibility that he is capable of error, are in the same orbit as the Trump legions.”

    Do you get it at all?

  26. I cannot agree with the general cynicism on display on Pb today.

    As one prone to losing small items out of pockets, I can imagine DM pulling up at the farm gate, getting out of his car and using a key from his pocket to unlock the gate -accidentally dislodging the half forgotten USB stick onto the harsh gravel road surface – and then running over it several times whilst driving out and in over several days.

    Such bad luck.

    I wouldn’t be surprised he had hungry homework eating canines as a kid. Dogged by bad luck all his life and never believed.

  28. Steelydan @ #1270 Friday, October 16th, 2020 – 4:38 pm

    Have a read of Phil Coorey’s piece in the Finn Review.

    Dan’s fans and Trump’s base: spot the difference

    “If people are unwilling to acknowledge error on their own side, politics collapses because there are no agreed norms.”
    “But his cult-like followers, who rally around a Twitter hashtag of #IstandwithDan and refuse to countenance any possibility that he is capable of error, are in the same orbit as the Trump legions.”

    Do you get it at all?

    Most people acknowledge the errors in areas such as hotel quarantine, but people like corporate filter Coorey don’t like it when people push back against the clear agenda of tearing down Andrews.

    Not sure it’s good for business to attack your potential customers, but Coorey has a massive ego to stroke regardless.

  29. “But his cult-like followers, who rally around a Twitter hashtag of #IstandwithDan and refuse to countenance any possibility that he is capable of error, are in the same orbit as the Trump legions.”

    WTF? WTAF?

    I think Coorey is stranded by a technical problem. In his bubble, crowded with clowns and crooks, he doesnt know what actual leadership looks like.

    I have always found him a little arrogant and dismissive – that article shows him as a tantrum throwing fool.

  30. Sam Maiden talking of being trapped in your house and only allowed out for one or two hours a day for months.

    So no-one in Melbourne has a garden?

  31. lizzie @ #1255 Friday, October 16th, 2020 – 3:57 pm

    So surreptitiously Fifield changes the law to allow 27 million unlisted numbers to be passed to Crosby Textor obviously for electioneering – LNP is not a political party its a criminal cartel.

    Yet amazingly no one can do anything about the ‘criminal cartel’
    Not the opposition, not the media, not the High Court, not the federal police……
    Try and keep comments within the realms of believability. That would be best.

  33. Steelydan, you do realise Cooreys argument, as you have quoted, is a straw man.

    No one I am aware of thinks dan is not human. As such he is condemned to error.

    More importantly when he is leading in the midst of a pandemic, where decision-making is necessarily time-constrained and “best evidence” is a moving feast, error is inevitable.

    The question should not be “Has Dan made errors?”

    The questions should be “Is Dan correcting for error appropriately “ , “is he following best advice – or within the range”, is he consistent in his messaging, and is he making decisions and following them.

    They are the tests of leadership.

    On those scores Dan has been fantastic.

    Michael – lets make a flag for every death and open up to create a whole lot more deaths – O’Brien, not so much.

    On those scores Scomo – lets leave quarantine to the states and then pressure them to open up – our pm, not so much.

  34. Is anyone familiar with the series of comics by the name “The Sandman”? The main characters’s names begin with the letter D. There are Destiny, Death, Dream, Destruction, Desire, Despair, and Delirium. The main protagonist is Dream. Death (his sister) is a big player, busy but never too busy for you. Destruction has retired since humans don’t need him any more. Destiny is the big honcho, mess with him at your peril. Desire is caught up in herself, and dangerous. Delirium has a deep instinctive understanding of the world. But Despair is merely pitied, and mostly avoided.

    In the Atreides saga fear is the mind-killer. But I think Gaiman got closer to the mark with Despair in that role.

  36. Anthony Albanese
    @AlboMP
    ·
    13m
    The land was worth $3 million. The Morrison Government paid $30 million. Australians deserve to know why.

    Indeed.

  37. Late Riser

    ‘ if non-working jobkeeper recipients are classed as employed.’

    It’s unlikely they would be.

    The unemployment rate calculation has nothing to do with the number of people on government payments.

    It is calculated from a sample of households generally (to allow meaningful international comparisons), where people identify as being willing to work despite not being employed.

    If there are large numbers of people who are not employed and not seeking work, that’s reflected in the participation rate, so if Victoria’s participation rate is comparable to other states (I don’t know whether that’s true or not) then its unemployment figures will be similarly reliable.

  38. Windhover:

    As one prone to losing small items out of pockets, I can imagine DM pulling up at the farm gate, …

    Very interesting, but grossly irrelevant as it’s well established that DM was more of a “lining his pockets” kind of guy. Losing anything from pockets would be anathema to such a person, surely!

  41. Steelydan

    There’s only one reason that corporate aligned filters like Credlin frame their questions on incorrect statements and misrepresentations.

    This is why people are pushing back with #Istandwithdan and the like.

  43. The ACT Liberals’ slogan for this election campaign is “Lower taxes, better services”, leaving a wide gap between revenue and expenditure. They also claim they won’t borrow money to make up the difference.

    ACT Liberals leader Alistair Coe has been consistently refusing to answer questions about where the money is coming from in this “magic pudding” approach.

    Yesterday Coe was interviewed again and came up with this corker:

    Mr Coe was asked why he had repeatedly refused to directly answer questions in his daily media conferences.

    He did not answer the question, but said Labor was “old and tired” and arrogant.

    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6970959/coe-ignores-questions-barr-pivots-to-covid-19-in-dying-days-of-campaign/?cs=14225

  44. Windhover:

    The questions should be “Is Dan correcting for error appropriately “

    Don’t be too hard on SteelyDan – this question also escaped Mr Walker (albeit from a different angle), who saw it as:
    – could the system work?
    rather than:
    – does the system correct for error appropriately?

  45. AFP announce investigation into the land purchase on Friday.

    HOR resumes next week and senate estimates commence.

    Morrison and his crew bat away any and all questions in QT, pressers and interviews re the purchase with “ subject to a AFP investigation not appropriate to comment “ bullshit. At the same time officals and their ministers from the relevant department ( s) sit in estimates and use the same line.

    Coincidence ?

  46. The AFP will stick to their traditional tactic with any LNP persons of interest by not interviewing any persons of interest, and then declaring nothing to see here.

  47. Mexicanbeemer

    It hasn’t been that bad and no one has been policing the time limit.

    I can only imagine that someone like Karvelas lives in a flat or a townhouse. She keeps complaining about being “shut up with the kids”. Yet then she says she goes out running every day.

  48. Michael West
    @MichaelWestBiz
    ·
    7m
    Hyper-partisan reporting of the Covid Crisis in Victoria has amplified the failure of mainstream media in Australia. Melbourne medical student,
    @MichaelTanner_
    reports from lockdown #auspol

    https://www.michaelwest.com.au/megaphone-madness-how-reckless-media-impeded-victorias-covid-19-recovery/

    The Australian ran an article linking the Black Lives Matter protest to Covid-19 outbreaks in the Flemington housing commission apartments, while The Herald Sun suggested the source of the spread from hotel quarantine was a security guard having sex with a returned traveller. Neither story is correct, but they remain online. And as with any falsehood, once repeated enough times they are taken as the truth.

    Sky News ran a headline in late September stating that the hotel quarantine inquiry “finds” the government responsible for deaths of 768 people. Again, false. The inquiry is not set to release its findings until November. This one at least was subsequently updated to “hears” government responsible.

    Sky Host Paul Murray also claimed on air that death by suicide is on the rise – again, the data does not stack up. There may be an increase in mental health issues in Victoria, but not of suicide.

    The Australian published modelling it claimed was leaked from the Victorian government, warning of thousands of cases a day in weeks to come. It bore a striking resemblance to a graph posted on Twitter.

    ABC Breakfast presenter Michael Rowland tweeted an endorsement of an Australian Financial Review article that likened Victorians’ support for Premier Andrews as comparable to the cult-like support of Trumpians.

    The media coverage in recent months has undoubtedly polarised Victoria. But to liken those who support the actions of a government that has imposed strict lockdowns to successfully contain the spread of the pandemic, to those supporting a president whose lack of action has seen the pandemic take more than 200,000 American lives, is ludicrous.

  50. First Dog on the Newscorp petition (warning – like many Green-minded folk he just has to put the boot into Labor while he’s about it):

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct/16/fiona-the-bettong-on-kevin-rudds-wildly-popular-petition-for-a-royal-commission-into-news-corp?utm_term=1f699bb5858055bc19783e7ebed793b0&utm_campaign=FirstDogOnTheMoon&utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&CMP=firstdog_email#comment-144543635

    The number of signatures has passed 280,000, with 19 days to go. I know that the odds of the Royal Commission actually being established in the next couple of years are about the same as those of an alien invasion or the Rapture occuring. That would be true even if there were 5 million signatures. Even so, it’s getting publicity and generation discussion. Maybe it will encourage people to boycott Newscorp, which could well hurt them.

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