The Ten Network reported this evening on a New South Wales state poll it commissioned from uComms, which was “run over the past 24 hours”, providing me with a helpful opportunity to launch a thread on the biggest issue in Australian politics right at the moment.
The results are welcome news for a beleaguered Gladys Berejiklian, finding 62.7% of respondents do not believe she should resign, with only 27.7% believing she should. Only 23.6% said this week’s revelations made them less likely to vote for her, with 49.8% saying they made no difference and 26.6% offered the seemingly perverse response that they actually made them more likely to vote for her — albeit that most of these respondents would likely have done so in any case. When asked who they would have replace her if she did indeed resign, Rob Stokes lead the field with 38.4%, ahead of 35.6% for Dominic Perrottet and 26.0% for Mark Speakman.
There was also a question on voting intention, but the Ten News report was frustratingly light on detail, saying only that the Coalition was on 38% and Labor 30%. This very likely did not involve distribution of an undecided component that typically comes in at around 8%, so it should be deemed that the true primary votes for both parties were around three points higher – putting both of them more or less where they were at the 2019 election.