Two polls and a by-election date

Daniel Andrews continues to keep his head above water, despite waning patience with Victoria’s lockdown measures.

Opinion poll and by-election developments:

• Roy Morgan has published another of its SMS polls from Victoria, which records little change on state voting intention from a fortnight ago: Labor leads 51.5-48.5 on two-party preferred, as they did last time, from primary votes of Labor 40% (up one), Coalition 36% (down one) and Greens 9% (down one). Daniel Andrews records a 59-41 approval/disapproval split, in from 61-39 last time. However, support for existing lockdown measures is fast dissipating: there is now a 73-27 split in favour of allowing visits to immediate family members (out from 59-41 last time and 55-45 three weeks previously); 62-38 in favour of allowing table service (56-44 in favour last time and 63-37 against the time before); and 72-28 in favour of relaxing the five kilometre rule (61-39 in favour last time, 50-50 the time before). The poll was conducted Monday and Tuesday from a sample of 899 for voting intention and 1163 for the lockdown questions.

• The Australian had results from a further question on the weekend’s Newspoll yesterday, which found 54% were more concerned about moving too quickly to relax lockdowns and restrictions, down two from mid-September, and 43% were more concerned about moving too slowly at the expense of the economy, jobs and mental wellbeing (up four).

• The date for the Groom by-election has been set at November 28.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,416 comments on “Two polls and a by-election date”

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  1. But to liken those who support the actions of a government that has imposed strict lockdowns to successfully contain the spread of the pandemic, to those supporting a president whose lack of action has seen the pandemic take more than 200,000 American lives, is ludicrous.

    Worth posting twice.

    Andrews hasnt blamed China. Or his predecessor. He hasnt blamed Morrison. Or anyone that I am aware of. He has accepted there were failings and set up an independent inquiry that will soon delivery findings. IN the meantime, he has fronted press conferences day in and day out, answering questions from everyone, even political hacks like Credlin. Repeatedly answering. Not lying. He has taken hard decisions and explained why. And people have given him credit for it.

    Coorey needs a hall of mirrors. Shocker.

  2. Posting here as well.

    “I wish to make clear that Mr Palmer’s claims are nothing more than barefaced, outrageous lies,” Ms Campbell said in a statement. “The claims he and his party are making about the Palaszczuk Government are lies, designed to trick Queenslanders and help elect Deb Frecklington.

    “There is no death tax in Queensland. There are no plans for one from Labor. Anyone who says that there are is lying. That makes Clive Palmer a liar.” Ms Campbell has written to social media companies Facebook and Twitter demanding they remove the ads.

    https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/queensland/poll-call-pm-stranded-as-labor-lnp-leaders-regroup-in-brisbane-20201016-p565o4.html

    Didn’t Palmer do this during the federal election too?

  3. Late Riser

    Would assume the thinking there is that, if surveyed, these people are saying that they are part of the workforce and thus not seeking work.

    As one of the determining factors is how many hours you work a week, I’m not sure how the ABS deals with this when someone says they’re employed but not working any hours – I think they would still end up in the unemployed column.

    So I doubt that JobKeeper is making much of a difference (anecdotal, I know, but a few of those I do know on JobKeeper are still seeking work).

  5. BK,

    What are the chances of the AFP investigation into the $30m airport land sale not being completed until after the next federal election?

    Well, it does sound like a curly one. Could very well take YEARS before a decision not to prosecute due to:

    ● lost thumb drives,
    ● defective memories,
    ● ministers swapping portfolios,
    ● Public Servants taking early retirement,
    ● vendors moving to Aspen,
    ● broken document trails,
    ● refusals to co-operate with the investigation,
    ● FOI limitations due to Public Interest considerations,

    is taken.

  6. zoomster

    Could be. I read into the statement that there are people still technically employed by their employer, just not working due to restrictions. When jobkeeper ends a lot of them will end up as unemployed. It will depend on how Victoria reopens. I imagine there are a lot of alternative scenarios. Either way though, I think it’s arguable that the employment stats are missing a factor.

  9. A Russian disinformation campaign designed to undermine and spread fear about the Oxford University coronavirus vaccine has been exposed by a Times investigation.

    Pictures, memes and video clips depicting the British-made vaccine as dangerous have been devised in Russia and middlemen are now seeking to “seed” the images on social media networks around the world.

    The crude theme of the distorted images is that the vaccine, millions of doses of which will be manufactured by the pharmaceutical giant Astrazeneca, could turn people into monkeys as it uses a chimpanzee virus as a vector.

  10. Hotel inquiry holding an extra sitting next Tuesday.
    Anyone care to speculate what that is all about?
    Something to do with the phone records maybe ?

  13. The definition used by the ABS since jobkeeper was introduced to determine whether a person is considered employed or not considers a person employed if they are being paid. Nothing to do with hours worked etc but if payment is being made to that person by a employer.

    Large numbers of unemployed are therefore floating just under the surface masked by jobkeeper.

    The ABS statistics do not go anywhere close to the true state of the labour market much to the delight of the government.

  14. Late Riser

    Possibly so, but unemployment rates are a snapshot in time; they don’t predict the future. So what they are now is what they are now.

    It is just as probable that other jobs will become available.

    If demand and supply mean anything at all, even if individual businesses go under, if there is a demand for the services they supplied, then something will take their place.

  15. doyley

    Thanks for that clarification.

    I don’t see anything too problematical in that. I’d expect the majority of those on JobKeeper to return to their normal employment once the restrictions are lifted. It seems to have been what has happened in other states, after all.

  16. zoomster

    Agreed. The point the UQ prof was making, I think, is that the snapshot in time misses something that jobkeeper is masking.

  17. mundo @ #1272 Friday, October 16th, 2020 – 4:38 pm

    Simon Katich @ #1262 Friday, October 16th, 2020 – 4:19 pm

    Morrison is spooked. He has seen how Andrews dealt with Credlin. Much easier to make narky pot shots from a safe distance.

    Morrison spooked. Don’t be silly.
    Scrooter is freewheelin’ out there without a care in the world.
    The punters love ‘im, Albo’s scared of him and he’s got another term or two to serve.
    He’s pacing himself.
    Scrooter fears nothing and no one.

    mundo @ #1275 Friday, October 16th, 2020 – 4:42 pm

    Scrooter and Gladys will probably catch up for a few coldies and a good laugh while he’s in Sydney.
    Winners are grinners.

    And this guy tries to convince us he is pro-Labor.

  18. Berlin’s tourism authority has a nice direct poster for the anti-masker clowns.
    .
    “A finger-wag for all those without a mask.”

    .

  21. How good are the statistics these days anyway ? I remember back in the days of The Mad Monk the bureau were in dire straits when it came to doing the job properly after years and years of ‘efficiency dividends’ and cuts. It could only have got worse since then.

  22. Mikehilliard

    I’ve never been a fan of Grant and the combination of him and Carnell is a bit overwhelming. Then add a whole lot of Gladys adoration!

  25. Lizzie

    When it comes to the Drum you and I are on the same wavelength me thinks. BTW haven’t seen Murphy or better still Lenore Taylor get a gig for sometime. The Oz contingent seem to get a regular spot though.

  27. Havent watched the Drum for ages. For good reason.
    I could tell you what I think of the show… but not wise after a few brewskis.

  28. Mikehilliard

    Yes I’ve noticed our opinions generally agree. And the trend has definitely been towards newscorp and conservatives I think. There used to be only one token RW.

    Grant annoys me because instead of asking an open question and letting the panellist answer he goes on to give them some alternative responses that he’s thought of. Too domineering IMO.

  31. From another Newscorp hack:

    Truth is, Andrews has to go over hotel quarantine.
    Francis Galbally.

    He wont be going with a lead of 52-48 in the polls.

  32. ABC News
    @abcnews
    #BREAKING: Fourteen passengers have been detained in Melbourne after they arrived from New Zealand as part of the trans-Tasman bubble arrangements.

    The ABC understands the passengers flew to Sydney and got a connecting to flight to Melbourne.

    ————–

    Will Morrison and Gladys be hounded for this incompetence

  33. Awkward….

    #BREAKING: Fourteen passengers have been detained in Melbourne after they arrived from New Zealand as part of the trans-Tasman bubble arrangements.

    The ABC understands the passengers flew to Sydney and got a connecting to flight to Melbourne.

  39. the NSW premier and the Prime Minister should be made to front a press conference immediately
    Explain
    How these passengers from NewZealand were allowed to break the bubble agreement by going to Melbourne

    If this happen under labor state governent . the media particular ewsltd hacks would be calling for the premier to resign

  44. E. G. Theodore says:
    Friday, October 16, 2020 at 5:17 pm
    Windhover:

    As one prone to losing small items out of pockets, I can imagine DM pulling up at the farm gate, …
    Very interesting, but grossly irrelevant as it’s well established that DM was more of a “lining his pockets” kind of guy. Losing anything from pockets would be anathema to such a person,
    …………
    Hard to argue against.
    I retire defeated in my vainglorious defence.

  47. Just like what happened in 2000 when George Bush narrowly beat Al Gore in the state of Florida, thanks to the votes the then Greens candidate, Ralph Nader, had accumulated.

    No. That is completely wrong. The question has been studied in depth and the outcome was very clear: Nearly all of the Nader voters would not have voted in the presidential election at all had Nader not been on the ballot. Ditto for Jill Stein voters in 2016.

    Lazy, arrogant centrists push this myth that Nader and Stein siphoned votes away from their rightful owner, the cuck of a centrist who was too weak to defeat their inept Republican opponent. They should stop doing that. But if they stopped being useful idiots for conservatives they wouldn’t be centrists any more.

  48. it’s well established that DM was more of a “lining his pockets” kind of guy. Losing anything from pockets would be anathema to such a person,

    From the various Youtube clips of his ‘performance’ at ICAC – I’d say most people would clock him immediately as someone to avoid.

    Not impressed at all – but he will give it a good run at squeezing out of it all – who knows – years down the track he may well do so…..

  49. Nicholas @ #1347 Friday, October 16th, 2020 – 7:42 pm

    Just like what happened in 2000 when George Bush narrowly beat Al Gore in the state of Florida, thanks to the votes the then Greens candidate, Ralph Nader, had accumulated.

    No. That is completely wrong. The question has been studied in depth and the outcome was very clear: Nearly all of the Nader voters would not have voted in the presidential election at all had Nader not been on the ballot. Ditto for Jill Stein voters in 2016.

    Lazy, arrogant centrists push this myth that Nader and Stein siphoned votes away from their rightful owner, the cuck of a centrist who was too weak to defeat their inept Republican opponent. They should stop doing that. But if they stopped being useful idiots for conservatives they wouldn’t be centrists any more.

    This sort of prevarication and history re-writing is why the sensible centre says “Fuck You, imbecile” to the green urgers.

  50. Savva made a sound point on RN Drive. She (wwtte) couldn’t care less if Biden was intubated, she’d still prefer him, fearing that if Trump is re-elected he’d be emboldened to be an even bigger endangerment to the US polity than he’s been in his first term.

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