Two polls and a by-election date

Daniel Andrews continues to keep his head above water, despite waning patience with Victoria’s lockdown measures.

Opinion poll and by-election developments:

• Roy Morgan has published another of its SMS polls from Victoria, which records little change on state voting intention from a fortnight ago: Labor leads 51.5-48.5 on two-party preferred, as they did last time, from primary votes of Labor 40% (up one), Coalition 36% (down one) and Greens 9% (down one). Daniel Andrews records a 59-41 approval/disapproval split, in from 61-39 last time. However, support for existing lockdown measures is fast dissipating: there is now a 73-27 split in favour of allowing visits to immediate family members (out from 59-41 last time and 55-45 three weeks previously); 62-38 in favour of allowing table service (56-44 in favour last time and 63-37 against the time before); and 72-28 in favour of relaxing the five kilometre rule (61-39 in favour last time, 50-50 the time before). The poll was conducted Monday and Tuesday from a sample of 899 for voting intention and 1163 for the lockdown questions.

• The Australian had results from a further question on the weekend’s Newspoll yesterday, which found 54% were more concerned about moving too quickly to relax lockdowns and restrictions, down two from mid-September, and 43% were more concerned about moving too slowly at the expense of the economy, jobs and mental wellbeing (up four).

• The date for the Groom by-election has been set at November 28.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,416 comments on “Two polls and a by-election date”

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  2. Maybe 50% of those who voted for Ralph Nader wouldn’t have voted if he wasn’t on the ballot but nearly all of the remainder would have voted for Gore. Maybe some would have voted for Bush – over here, about 20% of Green voters inexplicably preference the climate and environmental vandals.

    However, in a first past the post system, minor candidates split the vote for the major candidate they’re closer to. They often end up letting the opposition candidate through. We have preferential voting because of the rise of the Country Party after WW1 was splitting the right wing vote.

    If Ralph Nader had have been fair dinkim, he would have fought the good fight and then, when it became clear that he would only get about 1 or 2% at best, withdrawn and recommended a vote for Gore before it was too late.

  3. Mmmm –

    Dixon name to vanish, leaving behind devastated clients

    It was said there were only three people who understood our entire superannuation system, wrote public policy academic Dr Jenny Stewart back in 2007.

    “One went mad, the other died and the third was Daryl Dixon.”

    A doyen of public pensions policy, there were few more trusted experts in Canberra than Dixon. And it was upon that trust that in 1986 he and his wife Kate founded Dixon Advisory and helped it grow into the fourth-largest superannuation advice firm in Australia.

    Scott Farmer, wealth adviser and founder at Bravium, says people have a better understanding of what conflicted advice is after the Hayne royal commission. Alex Ellinghausen

    The firm’s logo has been prominently displayed from its headquarters on the south-west corner of Northbourne Avenue in Canberra and on a Pacific Highway office tower in North Sydney.

    But today the Dixon Advisory name is tarnished. Plagued by a conflict of interest scandal and mounting investment losses of in-house funds that its advisers recommended to self-managed super clients, the name will be dispensed with.

    In September, the corporate regulator filed a multimillion-dollar Federal Court claim alleging Dixon Advisory failed to act in its clients’ interests or provide appropriate advice in recommending investments, as it raked in hundreds of millions of dollars in fees.

    Subject to shareholder approval at the upcoming Evans Dixon annual meeting, the listed merged entity will revert to an abbreviated form of Evans & Partners – E&P Financial Group.

    https://www.afr.com/companies/financial-services/dixon-name-to-vanish-leaving-clients-devastated-20201012-p564bd

  4. In the voting system used in many democracies, there would have been a run-off been Bush and Gore about a fortnight after the election on Melbourne Cup Day, which Gore would probably have won.

  5. Hmmm

    Samantha Maiden
    @samanthamaiden
    Confused about when the NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian and Daryl Maguire really started being more than friends? Maguire suggested it could be as far back as 2013 in the private hearings now made public but GB says 2015 but close before Eyes

  6. Samantha Maiden
    @samanthamaiden
    ·
    1h
    Exclusive: NSW Police Minister David Elliott ordered an audit of counter terrorism correspondence that
    @GladysB
    secret lover had access to over China fears
    @newscomauHQ
    https://news.com.au/national/nsw-act/politics/disgraced-mp-daryl-maguires-china-links-rang-alarm-bells-through-the-nsw-government/news-story/2751ac18288a999297ff6b1ab2b7e16b#.gv571 via
    @newscomauHQ
    Disgraced MP Daryl Maguire’s China links rang alarm bells through the NSW Government
    EXCLUSIVE
    news.com.au

  7. In all seriousness, why hasnt GladysB resigned?

    9News Sydney
    @9NewsSyd
    ·
    2h
    Gladys Berejiklian’s former lover has admitted to the corruption inquiry he did his best to shield the NSW Premier from the finer details of his dodgy deals.

    But phone taps revealed today, he spoke to her at length about some of the schemes.
    @DamoNews
    #9News

  9. GhostWhoVotes
    @GhostWhoVotes
    ·
    1m
    #Newspoll QLD State 2 Party Preferred: ALP 52 (+3 since July) LNP 48 (-3) #qldvotes #auspol

  10. ————
    #Newspoll QLD State 2 Party Preferred: ALP 52 (+3 since July) LNP 48 (-3) #qldvotes #auspol
    ————
    Gordon Bennett!

  13. “ Rupert hasn’t decided upon a replacement.”

    Yes he has. But Opus Dei boy doesn’t have the numbers yet. And he’s in a spot of bother himself.

    The Rupeverse is going hard after Gladys at the moment. But it seems to be a medium term project. It might not even work (for Rupes) but a wounded Gladys lingering would be good news for Labor.

    However, Labor has to smudge both now. Just like Greiner smudged Wran. Give the filth nowhere to go.

  14. Sensitive viewers may wish to avert their eyes.
    .
    .
    Trafalgar Group was named best polling firm of 2016 presidential race. It was one of few pollsters to predict Trump would win PA and MI (sources: Trafalgar Group and RealClearPolitics) and also Trump’s victory. This is what Politico wrote in its post-election mea culpa about the Trafalgar Group:

    The signs of a polling disaster were all there, but almost no one besides Donald Trump was paying attention……………………..

    The secret to Trafalgar’s success is that it best adjusted its polling to include ‘shy Trump voters’ and the votes missed in other polls. Democracy Institute also correctly predicted Trump’s victory in 2016, as well as Brexit.

    Which brings us to the punchline, and what Trafalgar sees as the outcome on Nov 3. In a nutshell, based on Trafalgar swing state polls, Trumps wins with 275 electoral votes:
    https://www.zerohedge.com/political/poll-which-correctly-called-2016-election-sees-another-shocking-outcome-november

  15. Andrew_Earlwood
    Re the Rupertariat. They seem so far to be pulling their punches. The SOP OTT headlines just aren’t there. Going through the motions but not in their ‘feeding frenzy’ mode.

  17. The Swiss pastime of yodeling appears to have led to a major coronavirus cluster in the country, potentially providing more evidence to back up concerns that singing heightens the risk of virus transmission.

    Roughly 600 people attended two indoor yodeling shows in late September in the rural canton of Schwyz, according to Agence France-Presse. Social distancing was required, though masks were not.
    Several of the yodelers later tested positive for the coronavirus, organizer Beat Hegner told Swiss broadcaster RTS.

    While it’s unclear exactly how many cases are linked to the events, infections have surged in Schwyz in recent weeks. Until mid-September, only about 500 people in the canton had tested positive for the coronavirus since the start of the pandemic, AFP reported. That number has more than doubled over the last four weeks.

    Many public health experts believe that singers have a high risk of spreading the coronavirus because they tend to emit large numbers of aerosols. In the United States, a March choir practice in Washington state became a “superspreading event” that led to dozens of participants being infected with the virus.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/10/16/coronavirus-covid-live-updates-us/#link-K6I7MUV765AKTAQR2ANZIUY2EU

  18. sprocket_

    The Swiss pastime of yodeling appears to have led to a major coronavirus cluster in the country,

    Have they done any studies of the spread of covid-19 from ‘yodeling’ as practiced in Aus-NZ ?

  20. Centrists don’t understand that their preferred candidate isn’t entitled to anybody’s vote. If a voter is ambivalent about supporting a candidate, the onus is on that candidate to win over the voter. If the candidate fails to do this, that’s on them.

    Blaming voters for the electoral failures of candidates like Hillary Clinton and Al Gore is a tactic used by people who have contempt for elections. It is an argument used only by losers who have no real fight in them. Any half-decent Democratic candidate would have won the presidential elections in 2000 and 2016. Those elections should not have been close. George W Bush and Donald Trump were both weak candidates. The problem was that the Democratic establishment promoted even weaker candidates – Al Gore and Hillary Clinton – and so the Democrats lost those elections.

    But I’m sure someone will explain why it is actually the voters’ fault for not supporting the inept candidates favoured by the Democratic Party’s powerbrokers.

  21. In other news, British Brexit planning has come to this.

    Roadside portable loos planned for lorry drivers delayed by Brexit checks

    The government is to install portable toilets on roads in Kent for lorry drivers whose journeys could be delayed for up to two days in the event of traffic congestion post-Brexit.
    …
    Maclean told MPs on Wednesday: “… and not only in Kent, … but also in a range of other areas throughout the country, because we really want to minimise the impact on those drivers who are already working really hard.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/oct/14/roadside-portable-loos-planned-for-lorry-drivers-delayed-by-brexit-checks

  23. Trafalgar is a partisan pollster. It didn’t actually get it right, it slightly overstated Trumps lead. But regardless, Trafalgar did have an advantage and it wasn’t being clever – it was doing state polling on election eve.

    It is widely accepted that important states did not receive attention from quality pollsters in the final days of the campaign. So the aggregators didn’t pick up that undecideds were moving to Trump in large numbers (2 out of 3 iirc – these are the so called shy trumpers). The only ones who knew were on the ground party staff hearing it for themselves – and the Clinton campaign ignored them because… polls.

    there aren’t as many undecideds this time.

    538 do not rate Trafalgar highly and give them a 1pt Repug lean.

  26. poroti @ #1364 Friday, October 16th, 2020 – 8:54 pm

    Sensitive viewers may wish to avert their eyes.
    .
    .
    Trafalgar Group was named best polling firm of 2016 presidential race. It was one of few pollsters to predict Trump would win PA and MI (sources: Trafalgar Group and RealClearPolitics) and also Trump’s victory. This is what Politico wrote in its post-election mea culpa about the Trafalgar Group:

    The signs of a polling disaster were all there, but almost no one besides Donald Trump was paying attention……………………..

    The secret to Trafalgar’s success is that it best adjusted its polling to include ‘shy Trump voters’ and the votes missed in other polls. Democracy Institute also correctly predicted Trump’s victory in 2016, as well as Brexit.

    Which brings us to the punchline, and what Trafalgar sees as the outcome on Nov 3. In a nutshell, based on Trafalgar swing state polls, Trumps wins with 275 electoral votes:
    https://www.zerohedge.com/political/poll-which-correctly-called-2016-election-sees-another-shocking-outcome-november

    Facts: During the 2016 United States presidential election, Trafalgar Group was the only polling firm showing Donald Trump winning the state of Michigan, which he ultimately did, and “nearly the only” one correctly predicting Trump’s win in Pennsylvania.Nevertheless, the company’s numbers for those states significantly overstated Trump’s support. It predicted that he would win Michigan by 4.5%; his actual margin was 0.23%. For Pennsylvania, its prediction was for Trump to win by 4%, but he actually won by 0.72%. This tilt toward Trump caused Trafalgar to make the wrong call on Nevada, predicting a Trump win by 5% in a state Hillary Clinton won by 2.4%.

    They were, in fact, further out than many other pollsters, just in the opposite direction. 538 rates them C-.

  28. The last Democrat candidate Nicholas might conceivably have had time for was George McGovern.

    Ha! I’m not smart enough to make funny, cutting remarks like that.

  29. Simon Katich
    A 1pt lean is SFA. Thought it might be more. The Gallup Poll 56% of Mercans say they are better off now than they were 4 years ago aka ,”It’s the economy, stupid.” MkII, is a bit of a worry.

  30. This made me laugh for some reason

    By Nicholas McElroy

    New Zealand passengers detained in Melbourne

    Fourteen passengers have been detained in Melbourne after they arrived from New Zealand as part of the trans-Tasman bubble arrangements.

    The ABC understands the passengers flew to Sydney and got a connecting to flight to Melbourne.

    Melbourne is currently not accepting international travelers.

    ABC has contacted Border Force for comment

  31. Centrists don’t understand that their preferred candidate isn’t entitled to anybody’s vote.
    ———-
    Nobody is saying that. Most are simply pointing out that if you are a voter in the US who cares deeply about the environment and choose to vote for Hawkins instead of Biden in this election then you are dumb as F or care more about scoring points than the environment.

    Now, if you are the sort of person who thinks the best way to save the planet is to hasten its destruction (which at times I am, eg I support Cory Bernadis ‘lights on’ hour) then, knock yourself out and vote Howie Hawkins.

  33. Blaming voters for not supporting your preferred candidate is a losing strategy, it evinces a loser mindset, it shows that you aren’t going to learn or grow from the experience, and it shows an incredible amount of arrogance. Al Gore and Hillary Clinton both lost because they were extremely flawed candidates who were ill-suited to the times they were in. Nader voters and Stein voters are not to blame for those candidates losing.

  35. When I say to my kids ‘no, you can’t have a whole tub of icecream before bed, but you can have piece of dark chocolate’ they grudgingly accept. They don’t choose to burn down the house.

  36. GhostWhoVotes
    @GhostWhoVotes
    ·
    1m
    #Newspoll QLD State 2 Party Preferred: ALP 52 ( 3 since July) LNP 48 (-3) #qldvotes #auspol

    So, Mundo was right…

    Scrooter has ’em by the balls I tells ya! By the BALLS!

  37. Nicholas says:
    Friday, October 16, 2020 at 9:19 pm
    Centrists don’t understand that their preferred candidate isn’t entitled to anybody’s vote. If a voter is ambivalent about supporting a candidate, the onus is on that candidate to win over the voter. If the candidate fails to do this, that’s on them.

    Blaming voters for the electoral failures of candidates like Hillary Clinton and Al Gore is a tactic used by people who have contempt for elections. It is an argument used only by losers who have no real fight in them. Any half-decent Democratic candidate would have won the presidential elections in 2000 and 2016. Those elections should not have been close. George W Bush and Donald Trump were both weak candidates. The problem was that the Democratic establishment promoted even weaker candidates – Al Gore and Hillary Clinton – and so the Democrats lost those elections.

    But I’m sure someone will explain why it is actually the voters’ fault for not supporting the inept candidates favoured by the Democratic Party’s powerbrokers.
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
    Maybe the Democrats and other centre-left parties around the world ought to select better candidates, but if the choice is between such less-than-perfect politicians and the insanity of far rightwing policy, then surely the choice ought to be clear.
    Ralph Nader didn’t stop Al Gore from becoming president in 2000 because, according to Nicholas, everyone in Florida who voted for Nader would have stayed home if he hadn’t been a candidate.
    Bush defeated Gore by only 537 votes. Nader polled 97,488 votes. It would have taken only one per cent of Nader’s supporters to have voted for Gore instead to have made that difference.
    So yes Nicholas, I do blame Ralph Nader for the Bush presidency and the Iraq War and the further delay of international action on climate change.
    But I guess that doesn’t worry many on the far left, as they only see politics as a way to make a statement about themselves and would rather dream about some far off future that only they can see.

  40. You are the most smug and entitled person on this blog, Nicholas. By a country mile.

    You simply fail to understand that in a democracy the ‘right’ set of policies are the ones that can secure sufficient support across a wide enough cross section to actually form a working majority.

    You dispise most of us as ‘Centrists’ even those of us who are far from that, because you fail to realise that effective progressive governments govern from the centre. Even if by sentiment they are actually left wing. The people you dispise? They are the ones you need – we need – to actually make things happen.

    FFS

  45. Bushfire Bill @ #1386 Friday, October 16th, 2020 – 9:50 pm

    GhostWhoVotes
    @GhostWhoVotes
    ·
    1m
    #Newspoll QLD State 2 Party Preferred: ALP 52 ( 3 since July) LNP 48 (-3) #qldvotes #auspol

    So, Mundo was right…

    Scrooter has ’em by the balls I tells ya! By the BALLS!

    And, don’t forget, mundo ‘successfully’ predicted Gladys Berejiklian would be gone by yesterday! He’s the true master of prediction! 😆

  48. Heroes are optional nowadays.

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2020/10/14/china-releases-video-of-new-barrage-swarm-drone-launcher/

    Back in the days when I had my first drone (now settled-in, 15 metres below the waves of Dunn’s Swamp), I predicted exactly the above strategy.

    ● Set and forget (but not forgetting that intelligent drones aren’t bricks),
    ● No need for GPS,
    ● No need for operator communication post-launch,
    ● Virtually impossible to counter all possible threats.
    ● Cheap, expendable, lethal… accurate to the metre.

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