A week after YouGov’s 52-48 result for the Courier-Mail, the same pollster – this time under the Newspoll brand – has produced the same result for The Australian. The headline two-party result is all we have go on for now, as related in an analysis piece by Jamie Walker. Full results will assuredly follow later this evening, and will be related here when that happens.
UPDATE: The primary votes are also remarkably similar to the YouGov poll, with both showing Labor and the LNP at 37% apiece and One Nation at 9%, and the only difference being the Greens’ 11% in the Newspoll and 12% in the YouGov. Annastacia Palaszczuk is on 63% approval and 33% disapproval, while Deb Frecklington is struggling with 37% approval and 44% disapproval, and Palaszczuk leads 56-32 as preferred premier. Palaszczuk and Scott Morrison record identical ratings for their handling of coronavirus, at 76% well and 22% badly. The poll was conducted Friday to Wednesday from a sample of 1001.
You get the sense that that the Rupert media realise they have lost control and are now saying, “you idiots”.
TPP: ALP 52 (+3 ) LNP 48 (-3)
Primaries: ALP 37 (+3) LNP 37 (-1) GRN 11 (-1) ON 9 (-2) OTH 6 (+1)
https://theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/queensland-election-alp-regains-poll-lead-says-newspoll/news-story/9f9cb2d0d0e215e1dac6f5a88bf9feb9
Queensland election: ALP regains poll lead, says Newspoll
You can see the July benchmark Qld Newspoll here
https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/678126dd535e7aa3fd4ef81e751ddef6
I think the ALP vote will be strong in the south east corner but will lose seats in the regions like around Cairns, Townsville, Mackay and Rockhampton. Overall the ALP will form government with around the same majority with it gaining seats on the Sunshine Coast, Brisbane and Gold Coast.
So, it seems Morrison’s time up here has failed to assist Frecklington, whose been equivocal on Palaszczuk’s hard borders’ policy. Also important is Morrison’s, Frydenberg’s, and Dutton’s continual sniping. The fact is, Queensland has only recorded 1,164 C.19 cases; 1,154 have recovered; and, 6 deaths recorded. And save for a few restrictions, life up here has been almost normal throughout the pandemic. Further, Frecklington has been referred to the ECQ over allegations of soliciting funds from property developers – prohibited donors up here. “Freckles”, almost as a last resort, promised to give the owner(s) of registered vehicles a $300 Christmas present, but Palaszczuk immediately countered with further electricity rebates. And there’s also no love lost between the political & administrative arms of the LNP. One of the standout performers has been Miles, who replaced the “embattled” Trad as deputy premier and health minister. He’s great before the cameras and has taken to returning fire when the Feds have attacked the Palaszczuk Government. Although it will be close, Labor deserves to prevail. Lastly, talking to a number of people, some of whom would never vote Labor in fit, seem to have a grudging respect for Palaszczuk & her colleagues, particularly those most vulnerable to C.19.
Damo
I would be surprised if the traditional ALP cities of Rockhampton and Mackay go LNP when the ALP are winning. It might be a different story if the ALP were headed for a big election defeat.
37% primary vote , you rather be in Labor position than the LNP who needs 40% to be in a position to form any kind of government
“Frecklington has been referred to the ECQ over allegations of soliciting funds from property developers”
Turned out to be fake news. Surprisingly it came from the ABC. The sort of thing you would expect from a Murdoch newspaper.
Steven Miles is coming across as a private schoolboy twit. Throwing in half smart comments at any opportunity. Not Premier material.
” Labor deserves to prevail.”
Yes consistently the worst unemployment or near worst rate in the country year after year. It is two things only going to get Labor over the line. The LNP choosing another Springborg as leader, and Coronavirus.
At the moment both Palaszczuk and Frecklington will be gone within a few years. Palaszczuk because time is against her, barely winning three elections, really based on sheer luck alone, not performance, she will retire in a few years like Beattie did, without being defeated. Frecklington because her electioneering performance has been about as good as Palaszczuk’s and she will lose.
I could be wrong but I just can’t feel any mood for change and haven’t felt it all year even prior to Labor’s stellar CV 19 response. When Bligh lost in 2012 every sign was she would lose. Of course you had the usual Courier Mail LNP urgers advocating an LNP vote ( which happens every election) but all the polls were really bad for Bligh. Her advocacy for asset sales after most likely listening too closely to the boardrooms rather than rank and file was her and her treasurer’s final undoing. But Qld recently had a taste of LNP craziness at state level and didn’t particularly like it. They may end up in minority government this time, with time still for a calamity of some sort to befall Labor but if they do I foresee that as even worse for them than a loss. At this stage it looks like an ALP win with some losses and some gains.Maybe in 4 years time with an urban moderate nonreligious leader they might Jag it ,but born again Tim Mander ain’t the guy. Maybe this Crisafulli from LNP heartland on the Gold Coast might be the ticket?
I think the myth of Qld being the rural state is just about dead. I don’t think someone from a rural Bible belt area can take any seats in increasingly progressive Brisbane. Brisbane has nearly half the seats and SEQ two thirds of the population ( an hour’s driving distance either way has 3.6 million people) the Gold coast will eventually loosen up as well and start voting ALP and no longer be impregnable LNP turf.LNP needs moderate NSW style leaders who exhibit the classic anti government tendencies but have fewer religious hangups and dogma, this might appeal to more of the laissez fair Gold Coast tradie style punters who don’t want to be preached to and love thongin’ it down the pub with the sunnies perched on the baseball cap for beer and smoke without the wowsers getting on their case.
Whatever ALP seats are lost in the regions will probably be compensated by wins in up to three seats on the Gold Coast plus Caloundra on the Sunny Coast with its huge population increase. Freckles will no doubt go the way of Springborg and Langbroek into LNP ignominy as failed leaders. It highlights the demographic difficulties of conjoining urban centre-righters with rural troglodytes. It’s a shotgun marriage that breeds adultery, coz there aren’t enough adults on either wing to find common ground. Verily I say that the LNP should revert to Libs and Nats to stabilise their base and maximise their vote. However, the political sadist in me is thrilled to see them squirming and wriggling on the hook after Newman’s feeding frenzy. If they did split, would AP then consider reverting to optional preferential voting? Dunno…
I wish there was another polling company in the field, or even some seat polling.
However, 52/48 ‘feels’ about right. I did think prior to the election being called that the LNP were well placed, and on the seats they are. However, they never seem to able to seal the deal.
One thing I’ve increasingly noticed around Brisbane at least is how much the LNP seem to be hiding Deb Frecklington. Lots of signs for local LNP candidates, not a single one for Deb, hereas the ALP corflutes typically feature Palaszczuk standing next to the local candidate. She’s barely mentioned in letterbox material too – it’s all just anti-Labor stuff and the LNP candidate’s plan.
In the wake of the 2017 election, I actually thought Frecklington could be a pretty formidable opponent, able to appeal to both old-school Nats and more urbane Libs, but since then she’s been blatantly panderering to the Joh/Katter crowd and the God botherers and has left the small-L’s behind. You have to win the south-east to win in Queensland, and the south-east is pretty moderate on the whole. That’s why Campbell Newman was so successful in 2012 and crashed and burned in 2015: prior to becoming premier, he had a reputation as a sensible centrist. It wasn’t until he won that the far-right nutter came out to play.
“If they did split, would AP then consider reverting to optional preferential voting? Dunno…”
No, she wouldn’t and she can’t. After Labor brought in compulsory preferential voting their credibility would be shot if they tried to change it back. I don’t even think there is an appetite to do it. There is still the problem of the Greens polling well in Brisbane and some of those votes potentially will exhaust rather then preference Labor. If Labor brought optional preferential voting back. Interesting though the LNP have said if they get into power they will bring back optional preferential voting which may be to their detriment.
A demerger for the LNP is not answer. The merger actually solves the problem of three cornered contests. And its been reported new MP’s to the LNP state parliament don’t think of themselves as Liberals or Nationals they just think of themselves as LNP. Unlike their QLD federal counterparts where being a Liberal or a National causes tensions. It also allows a Liberal from South East Queensland to lead the LNP which they desperately need. As previously mentioned Deb Frecklington is having the same problem that Lawrence Springborg had before him. That Brisbane voters do not want a rural Nat as premier. They should have known selecting Frecklington as leader was doomed from the start.
I think there are three possibilities now.1. if things go really bad for ALP from now on in perhaps LNP or Labor minority. 2. Things end up about where they are now with slim ALP majority 3. Things get ugly for LNP and ALP hold everything and pick up a good few more including even Tim Manders Brisbane seat. LNP are not very good at being pragmatic, mainly through the fact that media interests never bring them to book for their mistakes or miscalculations. Minority government would be a disaster for them and a Cameron Dick led ALP would be back for another ten to 15 year stint within a year and half.
It is not just LNP having problems with seats in Queensland. How many seats does Labor hold outside the south east corner, and it is getting less and less. The high welfare areas seem to be their last bastion of support outside the south east.
What is missing is real leadership in Queensland. We have a split state. We have an urban group that have a viewpoint on how their lives are lived. Then we have a regional/rural viewpoint based on how they live their lives. We have a current government that is very smart as it stomps on the heads and makes scapegoats out of the ones that do not vote for them, to make sure the south east corner continues to vote for them by making them feel good. It is clear to me most voters are interested only in those that identify as similar to them. What ever happens to outsiders they do not care. Proven again by the response to the bushfires compared to the response to coronavirus. Labor has no intention of bridging the gulf between urban and regional as it currently works in their favour
The LNP certainly has a major problem with their conservative members. The abortion vote should have passed in far greater numbers. I do not think Labor really had a conscience vote on that issue, despite them saying so. No dissenters points to that direction, when you consider in the gay marriage vote Labor seats were the most anti-gay marriage.
Notice Palaszczuk has totally dropped the voluntary euthanasia laws as well. Something Queensland critically needs.
Some say Labor is the natural party to lead Queensland, but I think they mean old Labor and I will lump the Bjelke Peterson government as being more like Labor then liberal as everything they built remained government owned, all parties like to remove civil rights when it suits them. What Labor is today is New Labor, totally different from the Labor party of the pre 1980’s that stood up for the little person and tried to be fair.
Headline in Brisbane, 1 hr ago:
Reading the article the plan is:
The reporter, Lynch, appears to base the article on speaking with a single “LNP insider” and Lynch’s analysis might be summarised as:
https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/queensland/lnp-loses-ground-in-queensland-polling-but-says-it-has-a-plan-20201017-p565zl.html
Without any evidence, I just sense that the LNP are getting themselves ready to lose this election and dump Frecklington. There’s too much faint praise in the MSM at the moment.
I just got back from a morning of campaigning in a Brisbane suburban seat. I have been out for each of the last 4 Saturdays. There has been very little anti ALP feeling all along and the pro ALP responses have been getting stronger. Morrison’s involvement during the last week seems to have helped the ALP vote. The surprising thing is the number of times Newman still gets raised by voters. I thought that teh anger would have faded by now but it is still there.
There is no feeling of voters looking for a change.
I have a question for those with their feat on Qld ground: the LNP attempt at self-immolation via attacking their own leader during an election campaign seems likely to stop them gaining seats in SEQ. Might it also cost them seats in rural Qld?
There the LNP faces challenges from groups like Katter and Fishers etc, which seem much closer to actual farmers and further from mining companies. Has Labor sorted out its preferencing with the latter groups? Whether or not Labor can retain majority government, on these numbers it looks very hard for the LNP to gain majority government. A Gillard-style minority with minors seems their best case scenario at present.
The LNP is fielding candidates right out of the Morrison playbook, though, including in metropolitan seats (two that come to mind are Mansfield and Oodgeroo, both with very conservative candidates with Pentecostal connections). There is a hidden agenda in terms of LGBTQI and abortion legality there, funded by large donors in a way that seeks to get around disclosure laws, and I wonder if advancing and entrenching this faction with a view to a longer game is his real purpose this time around.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/oct/17/why-queenslands-opposition-leader-wants-partys-anti-abortion-push-kept-out-of-election-sight
Warrigal, I had the same thoughts. Christian Rowan is my local member. It also fits with the removal of Jane Prentice at the federal level.
In the piece you linked:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/oct/17/why-queenslands-opposition-leader-wants-partys-anti-abortion-push-kept-out-of-election-sight
Rowan is quoted:
“It is not just LNP having problems with seats in Queensland. How many seats does Labor hold outside the south east corner, and it is getting less and less.”
@Paul
What are you talking about? Labor have regional seats through Wide Bay, Central Queensland, North Queensland, and Far North Queensland.
In fact apart from the two they lost last election (Mirani, and Bundaberg). The only winnable seats in the regions they hadn’t won were Burdekin, Whitsundays, and Toowoomba North. The reason why Labor doesn’t have a strong majority is they haven’t been able to cut through the LNP’s blue wall of Sunshine Coast and Gold Coast. The suggestion Labor don’t have seats outside of South East Queensland is nonsense.
I never said they did not have seats outside SEQ, I said they did not have many. Go look at a map of Queensland showing what seats Labor holds. The state overwhelmingly is Blue. It is obvious to all and sundry Labor is now a SEQ centric only party. Their actions and legislation they pass proves that as well (look at how long it took them to create koala protection laws for housing developers to how long it took them to make new farmer vegetation laws, look at the recent government report statistic children born in rural areas have a 66% greater chance of dying at childbirth then urban babies caused by Labor closing health services) It is the dad and mum voted Labor so I do as well brigade that gets them through in the regions.
I also noticed Labor seemed to have taken strong offence at Palmer ads over a death tax. Seemed to me they took a little too much offence. Can anyone remember why Curtis Pitt is not treasurer? During campaigning for the last election Palaszczuk said his job as treasurer was a certainty. Then he was sacked within a week of winning. I find it astonishing how much dirt there is on Labor yet Frecklington is totally unable to have anything stick. Yet all Newman had to do was sneeze and there were thousands hounding him. I also have a theory that the left side of politics are more disciplined towards the party. They do not go out and slag off the party, yet often disgruntled ex-LNP members are happy to destroy their party. The left also have more minions with spare time to work for them. Evidence for this is when you look at protests in the streets. It is rare to see right wing protests. The vast majority are left wing.
It goes to show that to win you need to fling dirt. You need a strong assertive voice. Abbott won from behind for a reason. I am not saying he was a great Prime Minister, but he was an amazing campaigner. I suspect the overall election result will be closer then 52 to 48 if Frecklington stops being Springborg lite in the next two weeks.
“I never said they did not have seats outside SEQ, I said they did not have many. Go look at a map of Queensland showing what seats Labor holds. The state overwhelmingly is Blue.”
@Paul
Bullshit! Labor has 16 seats in the regions. That’s over a third of caucus. And they would have had 17 seats but a dirty LNP/One Nation preference deal cost them the seat of Mirani. Despite the fact there were LNP seats saved in the regions from One Nation via Labor preferences (Lockyer etc).
Actually even when Labor annihilated the Nationals/Liberals in 2001 most of their seats were based in South East Queensland (Brisbane, Gold Coast). So what’s your point? Oh that’s right you don’t have a point. Your just one of those jaded hacks who wants to go back to the Bjelke-Petersen years where the Nationals had a gerrymander. Where the National party had 8000 in regional/rural electorates while Labor had seats in Brisbane with over 20 000 in the electorate.
I’m not going to respond with the crap about Tony Abbott and so forth. As its irrelevant and it has nothing to do with QLD state politics.
Paul ,you are grasping at straws if you reckon Labor will even think about death tax.
I literally do not understand any of this. Urban conglomeration has the most seats, in a small area, dominated by Labor? Well stop the presses. Looked at an electoral map of Victoria or (especially Rann era) South Australia lately, Paul? Queensland is different but not that different. In fact, it is less capital dominated than any other mainland state.
Labor has been popular in Qld. since Goss because they provide sensible middle of the road government. The LNP seems to have lost that moderate thing that they had in the eighties by joining up with the Nats/ country party,you end up having a Bible belt type rural government that doesn’t suit the city at all. Joh had this Bible bashing thing going on back when the malapportionment of seats meant a country seat had half to a third of voters than city seats. The vote on abortion showed that only a few LNPers were game to buck the religious hangups the party is becoming known for and then they were bullied and jostled by other MPs and head office Also the LNP presents a clear and present threat to any government worker,I know this because I am one. I saw mass sackings in my department under the woeful Newman regime and that privatising government functions only transferred public money into private hands with no efficiencies whatsoever. At least Joh understood that government should provide services and secure jobs. Modern LNP is the worst of both worlds – when it comes to economics you are left to your own devices yet in moral issues they will dictate terms often guided by outdated religious hangups and hocus pocus and mumbo jumbo.
Sorry Political Nightwatchman, I can not count 16. Unless you are going to start counting any seat slightly outside the Brisbane city limits as “regional” Regional is pretty much outside north of Gympie and west of Ipswich. But since you say they have so many regional seats, is Cabinet made up of 1/3rd of government MP’s from these areas?
Off the top of my head there is only one Labor minister that does not reside in the south east corner. Pretty damning for a party that claims to govern for all Queensland. But you gave your political bias away when you used the term “dirty LNP/One Nation preference deal”. I will admit to being biased away from Labor, but that is because of how they run the state.
Prince Planet do you seriously believe the abortion vote was a conscience vote on the Labor side? Do you seriously think every single Labor MP’s loved those laws, or that they did not have the gumption to vote against Trad’s wishes. I say that because there are now multiple reports indicting Trad is a bully and not to be messed with. When you have ex Labor members of parliament saying something against a sitting Labor member, something is seriously wrong. They just do not do that sort of thing. While you say the LNP represents a clear and present danger to any public servant, as you are one, do you not think bias is playing a part? The public service in Queensland does have major problems, however those problems are in management, not the end services.
If Labor are so progressive, why is voluntary euthanasia still illegal in Queensland? Why are koalas in the south east corner dying in record numbers due to urban encroachment?
I take it everyone thinks John Howard was the best Prime Minister in generations, because he won so many elections. Of course not, he was a Prime Minister in circumstances similar to Palazczuk, survived on pure luck alone with a woeful performance.
Paul @ #28 Sunday, October 18th, 2020 – 8:45 am
The reason there was so little dissent on abortion within Labor was because there was a major internal effort to build consensus on the legislation, which involved many adjustments to the original proposals. The same will happen with euthanasia.
This is what Labor aspires to do – build consensus – as distinct from the divide and conquer attitude of the other side.
Any preference deal with One Nation is by definition dirty.
The hostility to public servants by the LNP is so well established as to not need any further discussion. They won’t be happy until they’ve outsourced everything possible and have all those left working for starvation wages (apart from the mates they bring in to cushy sinecures). This is not confined o Queensland.
I didn’t expect to see this in the MSM. Yesterday we saw a piece on the LNP plan to recoup their poor performance, and it is recycled this morning. So nothing new, but I guess it is Sunday. (spoiler: it’s to “go f—ing hard on the negative”) Then this morning and by the same reporter we get a puff piece on Grace Grace, the Queensland Minister for Education and Industrial Relations.
https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/queensland/the-cheeky-schoolgirl-charged-with-running-education-20200915-p55vok.html
I’m confused. Are 9fax picking winners?
How she ended up with the name Grace Grace
Her childhood (mum, dad, lots of sisters) and union background
Her marriage equality support
A quick mention of her personal history and friendship with Palaszczuk.
Her pledge for teachers
Hmm.
Hey Paul, reading your comments it’s hard to see what you actually like about the LNP?. You seem support to abortion reform which ALP got through and opposed by majority of LNP. You don’t like Lib hero and wily old dog john Howard. You reckon ALP with landclearing laws the LNP would scrap, are terrible on koala protection. I can also tell you when Candoe was in, it was the little guys in the PS who got sacked and the managers received Cando approved bonuses for achieving this no rhyme or reason cull in record time. Believe me if he had used some common sense with his decision making he would still be there and you would be content right now. Instead he carried on like a pint sized Conan the barbarian with the support and misguided comfort of a huge majority and “strong “Courier Mail endorsement. Of course history shows that disappeared very quickly ( not the CM endorsement though)
“Sorry Political Nightwatchman, I can not count 16. Unless you are going to start counting any seat slightly outside the Brisbane city limits as “regional” Regional is pretty much outside north of Gympie and west of Ipswich. But since you say they have so many regional seats, is Cabinet made up of 1/3rd of government MP’s from these areas?
Off the top of my head there is only one Labor minister that does not reside in the south east corner. Pretty damning for a party that claims to govern for all Queensland. But you gave your political bias away when you used the term “dirty LNP/One Nation preference deal”. I will admit to being biased away from Labor, but that is because of how they run the state.”
So Paul your now pivoting to ministers there were three ministers from outside SE Queensland in the last Palaszczuk government cabinet. But your assertion there is only one is not only faculty wrong but also shows that you a grasping at straws trying to defend your argument that Labor have hardly any representation outside SEQ. Labor has seats in Maryborough, Mackay, Townsville, Cairns, Rockhampton, and Gladstone. The fact you still refuse to acknowledge this and concede on this point really shows I’m wasting my time debating you.
PrincePlanet,
I do not think Paul is an LNP supporter, the level of confusion and obstinance in his comments make him look more like one of Hanson’s rabble.
Thanks Peter I think that explains the confusion.
Oh so here come the insults because people cannot beat my argument. Of course anyone with a different opinion must be ONP rabble right?
Yes I was wrong about the ministers there are three, none of whom are senior ministers, however you said they had 16 seats in the regions. What I count is one in far North Queensland. Two seats around Cairns, three around Townsville, Mackay, two around Rockhampton and Gladstone. That is ten out of 48 seats won, or 20% won outside the south east corner, and then it looks like only one (Cook) was a rural seat with Keppel being marginal rural. Hardly a glowing endorsement of looking after the entire state. Ministers is around 15% outside the south east corner, but again none of whom were senior ministers in important roles. I would say remove compulsory voting and compulsory preferential voting their seat winnings outside SEQ would dwindle badly.
Yet to see anyone discount the Sports Minister over ruling the public service and hand out money to Labor seats. Yet to see anyone discount the now multiple bullying claims against Jackie Trad despite the government claiming to be anti-bullying. Yet to see anyone dblast the government taking in Labor donations for special access to government ministers, when questioned on this Palaszczuk said it was not illegal yet.
We have seen this government attempt to bring in laws to jail journalists. We have seen this government change donation laws so that for example a pedophile can donate money to a political party, but a property developer at Longreach it is illegal. We have seen a constant three cornered contest with Queensland often winning to what state has the worst unemployment rate in the country. We have horrendous government debt with little to show for it. But you want to reward all that and that was just a short list. Rather then say it is not good enough, and do the same to Palaszczuk as was done to Newman. In other words, reward bad management.
But apparently I am ONP rabble for daring to think for myself.
Paul how do you criticise debt on the state sphere yet the federal debt is not mentioned. If Deb’s main goal is debt reduction and if you support her aims and are a bona fide LNP supporter as you insist ( albeit one who is against landclearing, is pro choice and amazingly has no time for Lib superhero Johnny Howard) how do you reckon it will be achieved? Here’s my guess sell electricity and other assets, get rid of 1000s of public servants and cut services. Even the federal libs realise now is not the time for austerity. It takes all types to make up the world and I respect your opinion but people should look at the issues and vote accordingly you and I are both doing that but with different outcomes. Apologies for mistaking your allegiances.
Labor has announced it will put legislation to parliament legalise voluntary-assisted dying. They will be giving a conscience vote to its members. The LNP needs to tread carefully on this issue. There was a poll suggesting 80% of Queenslander supports legalise voluntary-assisted dying for people with terminal illness. There also alot of elderly people that support this issue who traditionally vote conservative. Just appealing to their ‘ex-Family-First’ faction and saying they won’t support the legislation may cause a wedge with the voting public.
“Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk says a re-elected Labor government would move to legalise voluntary-assisted dying.
Making the major announcement at Labor’s campaign launch at Beenleigh, Ms Palaszczuk said all of her MPs would be given a conscience vote on the issue, which she referred to the Queensland Law Reform Commission this year.
“I believe individuals and families should be empowered to consider all the options available in consultation with their medical professionals,” she said.
“That’s why today I can commit that the government I lead will introduce legislation in February next year to provide for the legalisation of voluntary assisted dying.”
https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/state-election-2020/parties/qld-election-2020-no-new-cases-as-leaders-launch-campaigns/live-coverage/3c6aa32e48907b4d885436e237712369
The reason that the number of ALP MPs in non-SEQ Queensland is so small is that most of non-SEQ Queensland is that it is mostly relatively politically conservative and thus the number of seats where the ALP has a majority is small and the reverse is true with the LNP. A significantly higher proportion of ALP MPs would be from outside SEQ if Queensland had proportional represenation.
“The reason that the number of ALP MPs in non-SEQ Queensland is so small is that most of non-SEQ Queensland is that it is mostly relatively politically conservative and thus the number of seats where the ALP has a majority is small and the reverse is true with the LNP. A significantly higher proportion of ALP MPs would be from outside SEQ if Queensland had proportional represenation.”
It’s actually not that small compared to the LNP’s. The number of MP’s that the LNP have out of the South East Queensland is only 14. The only reason you think they have so many more MP’s is because most of them are on very safe margins. In the Peter Beattie landslide of 2001 the only safe National party seats Labor won were Burnett and Burdekin (before redistribution). The remaining ultra safe National party seats either remained with the Nationals or went to independents or One Nation.
I speculated this morning that in “professional class” suburbs, like Fig Tree Pocket and Kenmore, the Greens have an advantage over Labor in “turning” LNP voters.
In the previous election the votes in Maiwar, which includes Fig Tree Pocket, changed like this.
Greens +7.4%, ALP -1.5% and LNP -5.8%.
https://pollbludger.net/qld2020/Maiwar.htm
This afternoon I opened the election material that had accumulated in our letterbox, in Maiwar. It was interesting reading. (TLDR. In Maiwar the LNP see the Greens as a bigger threat than Labor. The Greens are throwing everything at this seat. No-one else is trying.)
“KOALA, POWERFUL OWL AND ENVIRONMENTAL PROJECTS FUNDING” was the heading on one flyer. The entire single page flyer was dedicated to environmental issues. The topics included wetlands, ecosystems, rehabilitation of the Brisbane River, blue gum planting, nesting boxes, and so on. The candidate on the flyer was Lauren Day, LNP for Maiwar.
The other material was a 16 page booklet, with front cover headlines on Economic Recovery, Essential Services, Neighbourhoods, and Funding. Opening the booklet I read about Manufacturing, Public Hospitals, and State Schools. The candidate was Michael Berkman, Greens for Maiwar.
There was no material in the letterbox promoting Labor or any other party.
It’s not fair comparing a 16 page booklet with a one page flyer. And the Greens flyer did also have sections on renewable energy, corporate taxes and was clearly “Green”. Nevertheless I was struck by the overlap, that is to say by the singular environmental theme of the LNP flyer (what Greens like to talk about) and the spread of lifestyle and economy themes in the Greens booklet (what the LNP like to talk about).
My conclusion is that in these suburbs the LNP see the threat posed by the Greens and are adopting “green” themes. On the flip side, the Greens see value in promoting lifestyle and economic issues. (Also interesting was that neither party touched on social issues, such as crime or abortion.)
PrincePlanet, this article is nothing to do with the federal government and their huge welfare splurge. As for austerity, now is the time to make structural changes because if they are not done now, they will never be done. Look at the GFC and tell me what major changes were implemented so such a thing never happens again? Of course everything big was bailed out. Huge sums of money was borrowed and then when it was over nothing as everything was apparently “fixed” by borrowing and welfare spending. The GFC was over many many years ago, but debt both in federal and state has only gone one way since.
As for Palaszczuk announcement today of voluntary euthanasia. What a disgusting person to use the terminally ill as a political pawn to get votes. Probably one of the more disgusting things I have seen during an election campaign. She needs to be called out for doing it. She had plenty of time over the past five years to bring in these laws. The state government went on huge parliament law changing spree in the last few months and they now they have turned something they had ample opportunity to pass into a vote gabbing election policy. BTW how can she claim to change the laws when she said it would be a conscience vote? That means it could easily fail.
If Frecklington had any brains she would be hammering Labor hard on this in their ploy to take advantage of dying people to win votes. Palszczuk should be condemned by all and sundry. This should cost her the election if people had any morals.
You win Paul,I will definitely be voting ALP though. all the best
“If Labor are so progressive, why is voluntary euthanasia still illegal in Queensland?”
Ha! You take a cheap political shot when Labor doesn’t bring in voluntary euthanasia. Then huff and puff with fake indignation and condemn Labor when they announce that they will bring the legislation to be voted on.
Paul I don’t think you know what you want. You criticism of Labor is completely hypocritical.
I am wondering if Paul is a genuine LNP adherent or just a contrarian. It seems from his responses he quite likes ALP policy but can’t stand the ALP or its representatives. I noticed the pivot on euthanasia as well and consider it curious. Anyway we all know that the LNP can be very slippery when it comes to issues. ALP gets nailed by the media for every slight variation yet LNP gets a boat ride. Imagine if Anastacia Palaszczuk was in Gladys boots,would she get the soft soap treatment off the courier Mail? Not a chance in hell. I reckon in the end though the much higher level of scrutiny actually helps Labor.
For people posting in a political event being naive is quite pronounced.
Two years ago, yes two years Palaszczuk announced an inquiry into voluntary euthanasia. She seems to love expensive inquiries rather then making a decision. The opposition as usual stuck in the 1930’s seems to like people dying in agony.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-09-02/voluntary-euthanasia-inquiry-in-queensland/10192716
Fast forward to March this year and the speedy inquiry reports for legislation to be passed.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-09-02/voluntary-euthanasia-inquiry-in-queensland/10192716
Palaszczuk thinks about it until May, then says no to any vote. Labor at this stage were behind on the polls. Apparently she embraced the LNP idea in that people dying in agony is a good thing. Of course the legislation must go to a commission now. Reality is Palaszczuk was behind in the polls and wanted in no way there to be any vote that might split the Labor party. Anyone with an ounce of political knowledge would have seen this for what it was. A political decision based on winning an election.
https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/queensland/palaszczuk-puts-voluntary-euthanasia-reform-on-hold-20200520-p54uwk.html
Fast forward to now. We have Palaszczuk now in full election mode lets loose that there will be a vote on these laws next year.
So what was the point of the referral to the law commission if now she wants to ignore anything they find as the vote is now an election promise? It was a scum act to use people who are dying in agony as a tool to get votes and show how “progressive” she is. (The reality is most people are very conservative hence why Palaszczuk is winning in the polls, people do not want change)
It seems political knowledge on how these people act is in short supply, especially in the LNP. Palaszczuk is a bare faced liar. Where is Curtis Pitt the treasurer that Palaszczuk said had a guaranteed job as treasurer a week before the last election? Oh he was sacked a fortnight or so later.
I thought in the age of the internet where there is instant access to what politicians promised, there would be far greater pressure put on politicians to be accountable. It seems the opposite has happened. There is less accountability now then there ever has been. Certainly Palalszczuk has not had the same amount of accountability placed on her as Newman had.
From Palaszczuk today in the Brisbane Times
” “It has been raised with me countless times and there is no reason that any extra assistance at the Law Reform Commission is needed.”
Annastacia Palaszczuk on why she will bring Labor’s VAD law to Parliament in February despite passing them on to the Queensland Law Reform Commission for review in March.”
Lair liar pants on fire. That is not what she said back in May.
“But Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk believes the scheme needs “further consideration”.
She has asked for draft legislation backed by the committee to be sent to the Law Reform Commission for review.”
Again she is let off the hook for lying. Newman would have been crucified. But I fully expect people to say “but she saved us”