Two polls and a by-election date

Daniel Andrews continues to keep his head above water, despite waning patience with Victoria’s lockdown measures.

Opinion poll and by-election developments:

• Roy Morgan has published another of its SMS polls from Victoria, which records little change on state voting intention from a fortnight ago: Labor leads 51.5-48.5 on two-party preferred, as they did last time, from primary votes of Labor 40% (up one), Coalition 36% (down one) and Greens 9% (down one). Daniel Andrews records a 59-41 approval/disapproval split, in from 61-39 last time. However, support for existing lockdown measures is fast dissipating: there is now a 73-27 split in favour of allowing visits to immediate family members (out from 59-41 last time and 55-45 three weeks previously); 62-38 in favour of allowing table service (56-44 in favour last time and 63-37 against the time before); and 72-28 in favour of relaxing the five kilometre rule (61-39 in favour last time, 50-50 the time before). The poll was conducted Monday and Tuesday from a sample of 899 for voting intention and 1163 for the lockdown questions.

• The Australian had results from a further question on the weekend’s Newspoll yesterday, which found 54% were more concerned about moving too quickly to relax lockdowns and restrictions, down two from mid-September, and 43% were more concerned about moving too slowly at the expense of the economy, jobs and mental wellbeing (up four).

• The date for the Groom by-election has been set at November 28.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,416 comments on “Two polls and a by-election date”

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  1. Can I just give a shout out and a big THANK YOU, to the Disability Employment Agency, APM. They have gone so far above and beyond to try, and succeed, in obtaining employment for my son, after every operation he has had to have or unexpectedly had to have, that I just don’t think it’s fair to tar ALL the Private Employment Agencies with the same brush.

  2. Fighting the Great Recession with a Green New Deal

    When I became leader of the Greens, I said we were facing three crises: the climate crisis, an inequality crisis and a jobs crisis. I also said that the answer to all three is a Green New Deal, a government-led plan of investment and action that creates secure jobs by investing in a clean economy and making Australia more equal, including:

    * getting dental into Medicare;
    * making public schools genuinely free; and
    * a renewable energy grid to power our country, process our metals and export our sunlight as well.

    Now, as we start to emerge out of a pandemic that has seen the rich get richer, more than ever we need a ‘great equaliser’ of public investment to transform our economy and society.

    After a promising start of free childcare and real support for those out of work through Jobseeker and JobKeeper, the Coalition has reverted to type with cuts to these programs and a Budget that will increase inequality and pull us deeper into a climate catastrophe. Tragically, Labor last week supported most of it.


    This is the kind of leadership Australia needs right now, not more business as usual from the two party establishment.

  3. Dawn Patrollers
    Please accept my sincere apologies for there being no Dawn Patrol today. I simply overslept after a couple of days feeling quite under the weather.
    It’s too late to start on it now as I have things to do before heading out soon.

  4. “Dawn Patrollers
    Please accept my sincere apologies for there being no Dawn Patrol today. I simply overslept after a couple of days feeling quite under the weather.
    It’s too late to start on it now as I have things to do before heading out soon.”


    All good mate, I’ve got them covered with the Green Gazette. 😛

    Get well soon 🙂

  5. Good morning BK – we all greatly appreciate your daily Dawn Patrol but you are under no obligation to produce it – no apologies needed. Have a great day.

  6. Hope you are feeling better as a result of the sleep, BK.


    This year’s budget provides little support for those in greatest need, including the aged-care sector and people who are unemployed – with women over 40 bearing the heaviest burden. By Rick Morton.

    edit: for those who prefer to listen

  7. BK @ #6 Wednesday, October 14th, 2020 – 7:34 am

    Dawn Patrollers
    Please accept my sincere apologies for there being no Dawn Patrol today. I simply overslept after a couple of days feeling quite under the weather.
    It’s too late to start on it now as I have things to do before heading out soon.

    I just woke up myself. Look after yourself and I’m quite sure we will muddle through somehow. 😎

  8. BK,
    Thank you for your excellent Dawn Patrol.

    If you need a rest, then rest. Sleep in, put your feet up, snooze on the couch!

    You deserve it.

  9. Gittins: Frydenberg will be remembered as the inventor of the two-class tax cut.

    Those travelling first class get a big tax cut that’s permanent and will show up in their pay packet (or, these days, bank account) in a few weeks. Those in second class get a small tax cut that’s temporary, and they won’t see it until the second half of next year – which is when it will then be whipped away, leaving them paying more tax, not less.

  10. Soooooo, that means I can emtertain you all with another Mayor Pete article! 😀

    He always looks so nice, Pete Buttigieg — handsome in that white, Midwestern, college yearbook way, with a smile that seems bucktoothed but isn’t and those perfectly, and apparently naturally, arched eyebrows.

    Last year, as we got to know him during the Democratic presidential nomination race, he bore the weight of being his party’s first openly gay presidential candidate easily, as if it was no big deal. Sure, it takes a certain level of, shall we say, personal confidence to imagine that going from mayor of South Bend, Ind., to the White House is a possible career trajectory, but his was a quiet, respectful confidence, befitting a Rhodes scholar and a Naval intelligence officer.

    So maybe it should not be surprising to discover that when Buttigieg swore to do whatever he could to ensure the election of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, that “whatever” turned out to include “speak softly and carry a sling blade.”

    Last week, having served as stand-in for Vice President Mike Pence during Harris’ debate prep, Buttigieg must have seemed a natural choice for a predebate interview. Fox News’ Martha MacCallum and Bret Baier certainly thought so, asking Harris’ former rival a preloaded question about her public policy differences with Biden. Standing in front of Kingsbury Hall in Salt Lake City, Buttigieg gave his now viral-famous answer:

    “Well, there’s a classic parlor game of trying to find a little bit of daylight between running mates,” Buttigieg said. “And if people want to play that game, we could look into why an evangelical Christian like Mike Pence wants to be on a ticket with the president caught with a porn star, or how he feels about the immigration policy that he called ‘unconstitutional’ before he decided to team up with Donald Trump.”

    Cue stunned silence in the studio and the sound of a kajillion social media posts.

  11. At least AusPost could be more logical in their delays. A parcel from NSW arrived here within 3 days, but a local Yarra Ranges one only after 3 weeks, containing dead plants.

    “Ongoing challenges presented by the pandemic mean there are still some delays as our business operates with additional safety measures to protect our people and customers,” the company said on its website.

    “We’re also still experiencing reduced domestic and international flights, while processing unprecedented parcel volumes. The majority of parcels are arriving on time.”

  12. Apologies if this has been posted before but this censorship of a journalist by Gladys’s office is disturbing.
    Hope this comes up in thIs current ICAC enquiry.

    and then there is this other Chinese link to Maguire-

  13. Former Victorian Labor minister Adem Somyurek has threatened to derail the government’s COVID-19 pandemic response when it next comes back for parliamentary approval.

    Mr Somyurek – who remains in the upper house as an independent after being expelled from Labor over this year’s branch-stacking scandal – said he would not vote on Tuesday, leaving his ex-colleagues to rely on crossbench support to pass COVID-19 legislation.

    But the former small business minister warned that if the next round of pandemic response legislation was not “proportionate”, “transparent” and based on “expert advice” he would use his pivotal vote against Labor.

    The problem with all this is that we have a range of “experts”.

  14. C@t

    Their tracking system is so smart it tells me that my plants sat for 3 weeks at Dandenong, only a couple of hours away.

    The most insulting thing is that after each arrival I get a “How did we do?” request, whereas before it arrives I get a note suggesting that if the parcel doesn’t arrive after 3 weeks I should contact them. Then it arrives precisely at the 3 week mark. 😡

  15. I came across this quote from Malcolm Turnbull:

    “I have always believed that power without purpose is pointless”.

    Great words, which he didn’t put into practice during his Premiership, unless his purpose was to prosecute his predecessor’s agenda.

  16. Will either party ever get rid of lobbyists? I remember Godfrey Bigot campaigning on this.
    “ No matter how they try to frame it

    Lobbying is legalised bribery

    And democracy literally cannot exist…

    So long as billionaires and corporations can pay for direct access to political parties

    Your vote will never compete
    with their ‘donations’. “

  17. lizzie @ #27 Wednesday, October 14th, 2020 – 8:03 am


    Their tracking system is so smart it tells me that my plants sat for 3 weeks at Dandenong, only a couple of hours away.

    The most insulting thing is that after each arrival I get a “How did we do?” request, whereas before it arrives I get a note suggesting that if the parcel doesn’t arrive after 3 weeks I should contact them. Then it arrives precisely at the 3 week mark. 😡

    Don’t ever move and get a redirection, lizzie! I had to pay for it even though I have a concession card and they keep spamming me with mail to keep extending it. For more money! Just stop sending the letters already and go back to doing it for free! 😡

  18. “I hope this isn’t a sign that Green pastes will take over the morning. This is more annoying than Pegasus.”

    I don’t see a problem – no one is obliged to read them.

    Adam Bandt has some interesting things to say, for example about Australia needing “a vision and a plan that is a genuine alternative to neoliberalism”. For way too long, neoliberalism, a revival of a failed 19th- and early 20th century philosophy of how society and the economy should work, has underpinned the major decisions of Governments in Australia. It’s not working, it’s way past time for a change.

  19. Expect Dotards ‘rallies’ to grow exponentially from now….by election eve they’ll rival Nuremburg……
    I think MM is wrong.
    As Dr Blind Freddie from the Tommy Institute, Dept. of the Bleeding Obvious, tells me, Dotard wins…easily.
    Turnout on the day will be yuge for the Dotard.
    It’s America.

  20. Daily Telegraph front page goes “Photo Bombshell” (add h to start of address)


  21. Hmmm

    Anthony Klan
    Police cars revolving lightThis is what
    should be being held seriously to account on right now – how she abused her office to collude with News Corp to benefit China to cover-up massive $$$ secret deal days before the NSW election…Down pointing backhand indexDown pointing backhand indexDown pointing backhand index
    How China’s Virgin Australia undermined the national interest — The Klaxon
    ANTHONY KLAN EXCLUSIVE Virgin Australia, under current CEO Paul Scurrah, ran an elaborate scheme on behalf of its owners to mislead the Australian public and the nation’s politicians in a secret o…

  22. “Expect Dotards ‘rallies’ to grow exponentially from now….”

    … like their COVID-19 cases. Infecting your supporters doesn’t sound like a winning strategy to me.

  23. VicGovDHHS @VicGovDHHS

    Yesterday there were 7 new cases and sadly 5 lost lives reported. Our condolences to all those affected. More information will be available later today. Info: #COVID19VicData #COVID19Vic

  24. How influential are the SFF in NSW?

    ABC Sydney
    “is completely in denial” SFF Leader
    “We’re not asking for her to resign… she should put herself aside until this is all complete”. This after ICAC heard the Premier was in a relationship with disgraced fmr MP Daryl Maguire

  25. Victoria has recorded seven new coronavirus cases and five deaths as the city’s all important 14-day average fell slightly.

    But alarmingly, regional Victoria’s 14-day average has increased from 0.4 to 0.6 overnight after three people tested positive in Shepparton.

    Mystery cases in Melbourne have increased by one to 14 since Tuesday, while the 14-day average has decreased slightly from 10 to 9.6.

    Health authorities say the 14-day average must be about five for the Government to consider easing restrictions on October 19.

    But Premier Daniel Andrews on Tuesday ruled out proceeding with all of the planned steps under Melbourne’s second stage of reopening.

    The Premier confirmed not all of the planned easing of restrictions would proceed in their entirety, saying it was “not safe or fair”.

    He said coronavirus cases numbers were too high to open up now.

    “Everything people have given has to count for something. And it will count for a lot more if we see this thing through for a few more weeks and then take safe steps when they’re safe to be taken and not taken now because we all let our frustration get the better of us,” Mr Andrews said.

  26. Victorian Government media release. 13/Oct/2020

    Attorney-General Jill Hennessy today announced amendments to the Judicial Proceedings Reports Act to allow survivors to tell their stories without having to seek court permission.

    Young people in Outer Gippsland and Ovens Murray areas affected by last summer’s bushfires can sign up for online youth advocacy workshops on 15, 20 and 22 October.
    To register, visit

    The Better Boating Fund will ensure boat licensing and registration fees collected each year goes towards improving boating for all Victorians.

    More than 4,100 tutors will be deployed across Victorian schools in 2021 to ensure no student is left behind in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic.

    Pushing ahead with vital family violence reform, with the opening of the latest Orange Door in the Central Highlands region.

    Ahead of the highly anticipated re-opening of ACMI in Federation Square, national museum of screen culture has committed to a revolutionary digital future within its walls and beyond.

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