Two polls and a by-election date

Daniel Andrews continues to keep his head above water, despite waning patience with Victoria’s lockdown measures.

Opinion poll and by-election developments:

• Roy Morgan has published another of its SMS polls from Victoria, which records little change on state voting intention from a fortnight ago: Labor leads 51.5-48.5 on two-party preferred, as they did last time, from primary votes of Labor 40% (up one), Coalition 36% (down one) and Greens 9% (down one). Daniel Andrews records a 59-41 approval/disapproval split, in from 61-39 last time. However, support for existing lockdown measures is fast dissipating: there is now a 73-27 split in favour of allowing visits to immediate family members (out from 59-41 last time and 55-45 three weeks previously); 62-38 in favour of allowing table service (56-44 in favour last time and 63-37 against the time before); and 72-28 in favour of relaxing the five kilometre rule (61-39 in favour last time, 50-50 the time before). The poll was conducted Monday and Tuesday from a sample of 899 for voting intention and 1163 for the lockdown questions.

• The Australian had results from a further question on the weekend’s Newspoll yesterday, which found 54% were more concerned about moving too quickly to relax lockdowns and restrictions, down two from mid-September, and 43% were more concerned about moving too slowly at the expense of the economy, jobs and mental wellbeing (up four).

• The date for the Groom by-election has been set at November 28.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,416 comments on “Two polls and a by-election date”

Comments Page 2 of 29
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  1. Frednk

    There was a no confidence motion put forward by the fiberals in vic parliament yesterday.
    From Twitter comments I have seen, appears that the fibs did not cover themselves in glory.

  2. Facebook are always 10 years too late. They always wait until they are shamed beyond shame. If that is even possible for this mob.

    Denise Shrivell – North Sydney for an Independent
    @deniseshrivell
    ·
    1h
    About time. & should go further in banning anti-vax content. Now – your turn
    @AusElectoralCom
    – no anti-vax political Parties #auspol
    Quote Tweet

    Guardian Australia
    @GuardianAus
    · 1h
    Facebook to ban ads discouraging vaccination https://theguardian.com/technology/202

  3. The federal government has spent less than half what it planned to help older Australians into work and more than 40% of those receiving wage subsidies were out of a job within three months.

    Only $254m has been spent to help 51,190 mature-age people into work, despite the Coalition promising in 2014 to spend $520m to help up to 32,000 older Australians find a job every year.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/oct/14/an-utter-failure-coalition-blasted-over-program-for-older-unemployed-as-underspending-revealed

  5. Quasar

    It certainly does

    I tend to watch people and their body language.
    With GladysB I always felt that despite the excellent outcomes to date re covid (apart from Ruby Princess), she behaved like a person with something to hide.
    I found it very disconcerting.
    If anyone is interested. Just check out her press conferences over the past six months and compare them to the other premiers.
    You will see what I mean.

  6. Morning all and best wishes BK. I hope you sleep well; we all need it.

    This structural collapse at Curtin University is appalling. In dry weather with no wind, it is hard to find a reason for it. Lend Lease was managing it as a $110 million project and are ultimately responsible. Saying sub contractors are used does not absolve a principle contractor of responsibility, legally or morally.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-13/curtin-university-roof-collapses-reports-casualties/12762640

  7. Re Victoria “How influential are the SFF in NSW?”

    They hold 2/42 seats in the Legislative Council (upper house): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_South_Wales_Legislative_Council

    The line-up is:

    Good Guys (Labor +Green + Animals): 18
    Bad Guys (L/NP, One Nation, Christian Right): 20
    Independent: 2
    SFF: 2

    The hold 3 seats in the Lower House but the Government has a clear majority there. Should there be a future hung Parliament, they could be crucial.

    Some see them as an alternative “Country Party” when the real one was bought by the big miners and agribusiness.

    In some circumstances, their vote can be crucial.

  9. Victoria says:
    Wednesday, October 14, 2020 at 8:48 am
    she behaved like a person with something to hide.

    ———-

    She’s the female version of scott Morrison

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/nsw-premier-gladys-berejiklian-embroiled-in-grant-rorting-claims-20200703-p558py.html

    NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian directly approved more than $100 million in council grants in Coalition-held electorates before last year’s state election, sparking a parliamentary inquiry over allegations of rorting.

    A series of emails seen by the Herald show the NSW Stronger Communities Fund, originally set up by the Baird government to help merged councils, was used by the offices of the Premier and Deputy Premier John Barilaro to orchestrate funding announcements for seats across the state.

    ———

    Throw in the protection for ICARE and other dodgy deals under Gladys

  12. Mundo,

    If you are wrong regarding your prediction of a Trumpy win, will you refrain from posting in this forum for a week?

    It seems only fair that you give up one of your daily pleasures for being wrong.

  14. More Australians have been killed in unprovoked shark attacks this year than in any year since 1934.

    But the total number of shark bites is in line with the annual average over the past decade. It is prompting experts to consider whether the La Niña weather event, associated with cooler sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific, may be affecting where sharks search for prey.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/oct/14/high-number-of-fatal-australian-shark-attacks-prompts-concern-hunting-grounds-are-shifting

  16. Major investors and super funds will lead a push for the private sector to make much deeper cuts in national greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 than planned by the Morrison government, including setting a target based on what scientists say is necessary.

    The newly created “climate league 2030” is calling on investors, insurers, banks and companies to sign up to a goal of reducing national emissions by at least 230m tonnes a year more than the government forecasts by 2030.

    It is equivalent to about a 45% cut by 2030 compared with the 2005 benchmark used by the government – the minimum short-term target recommended by the government’s Climate Change Authority for Australia to play its part in keeping average global heating below 2C. They say action is needed now to put the country on a path to net zero emissions by 2050.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/oct/14/investors-lead-push-for-australian-business-to-cut-emissions-more-than-government-forecasts

  18. Look at Labor is all what the corrupt foreign own libs/nats media propaganda units have because

    Libs/nats and the corrupt foreign own libs/nats media propaganda units not having a good time during this period
    Federal
    Morrison and cronies rorts and other dodgy dealings

    State

    NSW – rorts and other dodgy dealings

    QLD – rorts and other dodgy dealings

    S.A – rorts and other dodgy dealings

  19. Kirky @ #39 Wednesday, October 14th, 2020 – 8:58 am

    Mundo,

    If you are wrong regarding your prediction of a Trumpy win, will you refrain from posting in this forum for a week?

    Yes.
    But I warn you, I’ll be in an ecstatic hyper-excited state if Dotard goes down and not fully responsible for any Red-fuelled celebratory hootin’ and a hollerin’….just to be clear I WANT TRUMP TO BE HUMILIATED YUGE.

  20. Jaeger

    Uh oh. There was a case in NZ recently where structural steel imported from China was not as strong as claimed. They had to rebuild a bridge. They should have tested it here before use, given the recent history. Either that or a design or assembly error. Structural design has a factor of safety of at least 1.5 I.e. is over designed, so this just should not happen.

  21. “She has a decision to make me thinks.”

    Isn’t the correct expression “Questions to answer”? Maybe that only applies to Labor.

    The progression is:

    All OK –> “Embattled” –> “Questions to Answer” –|
    —– |–> Colleagues pladge “full support” ———|—> Resigned.

  23. Victoria @ #61 Wednesday, October 14th, 2020 – 8:56 am

    Quasar

    Judging from today’s media, GladysB is under real pressure now.
    She has a decision to make me thinks.

    Berejiklian has nothing but the Spiv Party, and the Spiv Party has nothing but Berejiklian. She won’t be allowed to resign (yet), because they have nothing to replace her with – yet. The Spiv Party survived Barilaro Bruz because they have 2 years of uninterruptible Parliamentary majority – after which it’s over.
    Berejiklian will do her duty by them (not us), and suffer. They’ll let her carcass dangle in the breeze until the Murdorc’s can apply enough makeup to another Spiv to not look like the incompetent game players they are to the great unwashed. That’s us. Two years.

  25. rhwombat @ #50 Wednesday, October 14th, 2020 – 9:09 am

    Victoria @ #61 Wednesday, October 14th, 2020 – 8:56 am

    Quasar

    Judging from today’s media, GladysB is under real pressure now.
    She has a decision to make me thinks.

    Berejiklian has nothing but the Spiv Party, and the Spiv Party has nothing but Berejiklian. She won’t be allowed to resign (yet), because they have nothing to replace her with – yet. The Spiv Party survived Barilaro Bruz because they have 2 years of uninterruptible Parliamentary majority – after which it’s over.
    Berejiklian will do her duty by them (not us), and suffer. They’ll let her carcass dangle in the breeze until the Murdorc’s can apply enough makeup to another Spiv to not look like the incompetent game players they are to the great unwashed. That’s us. Two years.

    Gladys. Gorn.

  30. What is Morrison going to do?

    Kristina Keneally
    @KKeneally
    ·
    23m
    As the COVID pandemic gets worse in other countries & Christmas gets closer, more & more #strandedAussies are trying to get home.

    They’ve been abandoned by
    @ScottMorrisonMP
    & the Liberals.

    It’s time to bring them home.

    Story by
    @TomMcIlroy
    &
    @ronmjm
    Down pointing backhand index
    Waiting list for Australians stuck overseas passes 29,000
    About three quarters of the 38,200 Australians registered as being overseas want to come home.
    afr.com

  31. A police inspector forms a close personal relationship with one of his junior officers, a constable.

    The relationship is kept very quiet – the inspector subsequently says the relationship wasn’t of sufficient status to take it public.

    Less charitable folk might say the constable was an embarrassment.

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2020/10/14/michael-pascoe-swapping-the-sexes-a-theoretical-scenario/?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Morning%20News%20-%2020201014

  32. Australia Post executives spent big on events, entertainment and ‘reputation management’ during the height of the pandemic, while at the same time making staff redundant and lobbying for cuts to delivery services.

    The revelations are the latest in a series of controversies that Australia Post has been embroiled in this year – despite the firm being one of the few winners out of the coronavirus pandemic thanks to the eCommerce boom.

    Australia Post boss Christine Holgate’s pandemic spending spree, which includes a $3000-a-day Liberal party apparatchik-turned-spin doctor, was revealed in a response to questions on notice by Labor senator Kimberley Kitching last week.

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2020/10/14/australia-post-spending-spree/?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Morning%20News%20-%2020201014

  33. Stuff like this isnt going to fly

    The Sydney Morning Herald
    @smh
    · 1h
    Exclusive: Premier Gladys Berejiklian agreed to meet with two publicans with criminal histories at the behest of her secret partner Daryl Maguire after her own Racing and Gaming Ministers allegedly refused | @carriefellner https://smh.com.au/politics/nsw/premier-berejiklian-met-publicans-at-behest-of-secret-partner-after-minister-refused-20201013-p564sm.html?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1602617320

  35. Vic:

    ARe those ‘stranded Aussies’ banned from entering the country or are they having issues getting out of the countries they’re currently in?

  37. Confessions @ #85 Wednesday, October 14th, 2020 – 6:32 am

    Vic:

    ARe those ‘stranded Aussies’ banned from entering the country or are they having issues getting out of the countries they’re currently in?

    Neither as far as I’ve heard.

    It’s a combination of the cap on how many people can enter Australia and the airlines favouring those who pay for a more expensive class of seating on the planes.

  39. Warwick Long
    @Warwick_Long
    ·
    29m
    Confirmation on @abcmelbourne that the Shepparton outbreak from coronavirus has come from the same person from the Kilmore outbreak who reported they had been to Benalla but did not tell contact tracers that they’d been to Shepparton.

    As Brett Sutton said: It only takes one…

  40. We have mine sites and detention centers; the federal government can’t get off it’s ass and actually actions a plan to get these people home. Instead we get the Federal government whining that the states ( whose responsibility it isn’t ) aren’t accepting enough people. The federal government is beyond contempt.

  45. “More Australians have been killed in unprovoked shark attacks this year than in any year since 1934”

    Noting that Australia’s population is now about four times what it was in 1934, with most living within an hour’s drive of the Ocean or tidal water, the rate now on a per capita basis is probably much lower.

  49. As I predicted last night (but you didn’t have to be Nostradamus to do so) it appears Daryl Maguire has been trading off his intimate connection with the Premier as a way for his dodgy mates (one an arsonist and insurance fraud, the other running an unlicensed gambling joint) to bypass having to deal with departments through channels.

    “Hey, Dodgy Brothers! Want a special favour? Can’t get a meeting with the Minister? Just ask Daryl ‘The Fixer’ Maguire. Ask around. Anyone’ll tell you how ‘close’ he is to Gladys. REAL close, heh, heh. She thinks he’s ‘Numero Uno’.”

    You can’t run a state this way, with Ministers pushed out of the way by influence peddlers who can brag they’re bedding the Premier.

    If she was unwittingly associated with a spiv you could forgive her, limiting the offence to “stuff up” level (something very similar to this happened when Murray Farquhar once shopped Neville Wran’s name around, without Wran’s knowledge). But Berejiklian knew Maguire was dodgy, and even stuck by him after he’d been exposed as unfit for office. She arranged special privileges for Maguire (like introducing him to the Chinese Premier while he was running schemes involving Chinese immigration – that photo showing him with the two Premiers would be on his calling card).

    Nope… She has to go. The State just cannot let the actuality or the appearance of a conflict of interest right at the very highest office of government go unpunished.

  50. Lizzie

    Considering the second wave is looking really bad for the UK, Europe, USA, Indonesia etc.
    I’m guessing people are getting desperate to come home.

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