Two polls and a by-election date

Daniel Andrews continues to keep his head above water, despite waning patience with Victoria’s lockdown measures.

Opinion poll and by-election developments:

• Roy Morgan has published another of its SMS polls from Victoria, which records little change on state voting intention from a fortnight ago: Labor leads 51.5-48.5 on two-party preferred, as they did last time, from primary votes of Labor 40% (up one), Coalition 36% (down one) and Greens 9% (down one). Daniel Andrews records a 59-41 approval/disapproval split, in from 61-39 last time. However, support for existing lockdown measures is fast dissipating: there is now a 73-27 split in favour of allowing visits to immediate family members (out from 59-41 last time and 55-45 three weeks previously); 62-38 in favour of allowing table service (56-44 in favour last time and 63-37 against the time before); and 72-28 in favour of relaxing the five kilometre rule (61-39 in favour last time, 50-50 the time before). The poll was conducted Monday and Tuesday from a sample of 899 for voting intention and 1163 for the lockdown questions.

• The Australian had results from a further question on the weekend’s Newspoll yesterday, which found 54% were more concerned about moving too quickly to relax lockdowns and restrictions, down two from mid-September, and 43% were more concerned about moving too slowly at the expense of the economy, jobs and mental wellbeing (up four).

• The date for the Groom by-election has been set at November 28.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,416 comments on “Two polls and a by-election date”

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  1. On Victoria,
    For the testing fanatics. Something over 10% of the population of Shepparton and surrounds will have been tested by the end of today. Not sure it is a good sample but some indication.

  2. Naval Group Australia announced the local manufacturing package as it today opened a new base at Port Adelaide and worked towards building its 250-strong workforce ahead of opening a construction yard at Osborne.

    French-based Naval Group, formerly known as DCNS, won the contract to build 12 Attack Class submarines for the Royal Australian Navy as part of the Future Submarine Program, to replace the ageing, Adelaide-built Collins class submarines.

    Naval Group Australia said Australian manufacturers would eventually be called up to supply 23 specialised submarine parts, following industry fears that much of the component work would flow back to France.

    “The 50-year Attack Class submarine program is already delivering significant benefits to Australia, local industry and local communities,” CEO John Davis said.

    The firm said that it expected its workforce to increase to over 1,700 direct jobs by 2028 with many more indirect jobs being created through the life of the program.

    https://indaily.com.au/news/2020/10/16/australian-manufacturers-invited-aboard-submarine-project/

  3. Barrie Cassidy
    @barriecassidy
    ·
    14m
    They are good people suddenly torn. Though apparently people in Victoria facing the same dilemma are no better than Trump supporters.
    Quote Tweet

    Lisa Pryor
    @pryorlisa
    · 4h
    The NSW dilemma: what should happen when so many citizens simultaneously think (a) the premier has done the wrong thing and (b) she is far and away the best person to do the job of premier?

  4. WOW this phone tap

    Gladys is telling Maguire , what to do and telling Maguire how not to connect these with her

    Gladys is as guilty

  5. Victoria @ #1157 Friday, October 16th, 2020 – 12:19 pm

    The NSW dilemma: what should happen when so many citizens simultaneously think (a) the premier has done the wrong thing and (b) she is far and away the best person to do the job of premier?

    The NSW dilemma never changes – the Liberals are downright corrupt, but Labor is both corrupt and hopelessly incompetent 🙁

  6. FWIW, Rupert Murdoch, despite Miranda Devine, The New York Post and Fox News, doing all they can for Trump, thinks Joe Biden is on track for a landslide victory in November.

    I hope that’s not the kiss of death. 😀

  7. C@tmomma @ #1161 Friday, October 16th, 2020 – 12:25 pm

    FWIW, Rupert Murdoch, despite Miranda Devine, The New York Post and Fox News, doing all they can for Trump, thinks Joe Biden is on track for a landslide victory in November.

    I hope that’s not the kiss of death. 😀

    In private, some top Democrats remain nervous about the presidential race, despite Joe Biden’s lead in swing state after swing state — and strength in states that had looked out of reach (including Georgia, Ohio and Iowa).

    Tom Edsall, a former colleague from The Washington Post who now works the political science beat for New York Times Opinion, is up with a smart piece, “Biden Is Not Out of the Woods.”

    The most interesting data was a massive surge in registration for working-class whites.
    Edsall quotes a Democratic strategist’s privately circulated newsletter as reporting that white, non-college, over-30 registrations in battleground states had recently “increased by 10 points compared to September 2016, and the Democratic margin dropped 10 points to just 6 points.
    Another key point: Pew Research Center polling shows what Edsall calls “a modest drop in the Democratic margin of support among Hispanic Catholics” and “modestly weakened support among Black women.”

    And, of course, operatives worry about hazards in properly returning mail-in ballots.
    The bottom line … Biden campaign manager Jen O’Malley Dillon tweeted last night: “[T]here is still a long way to go in this campaign, and we think this race is far closer than folks on this website think. Like a lot closer.”

    (axios)

  8. A question to knowledgeable parts of bludgerdom, regarding Gladys and Maguire, where did he acquire this $1.5 million debt from in the first place? Does anyone know? He was on a parliamentary MPs salary plus country members expenses for 20 years (1999 – 2018). How did he acquire such a big debt?

  9. C@tmomma @ #1161 Friday, October 16th, 2020 – 11:25 am

    FWIW, Rupert Murdoch, despite …, thinks Joe Biden is on track for a landslide victory in November.

    I hope that’s not the kiss of death. 😀

    Perhaps RM is stoking fear of Biden among Trump supporters, to get them out to vote for “their guy”. That would fit with the #crookedblahblah stuff coming from Trump.

  10. C@tmomma says:
    Friday, October 16, 2020 at 12:25 pm
    FWIW, Rupert Murdoch, despite Miranda Devine, The New York Post and Fox News, doing all they can for Trump, thinks Joe Biden is on track for a landslide victory in November.

    I hope that’s not the kiss of death.

    I wonder if Murdoch is arranging psychological counselling for Fox News presenters (and other lackeys) who will doubtless be devastated if Biden wins.

  11. Socrates @ #1163 Friday, October 16th, 2020 – 11:30 am

    A question to knowledgeable parts of bludgerdom, regarding Gladys and Maguire, where did he acquire this $1.5 million debt from in the first place? Does anyone know? He was on a parliamentary MPs salary plus country members expenses for 20 years (1999 – 2018). How did he acquire such a big debt?

    Getting divorced probably wasn’t a financially advantageous move.

  12. ItzaDream @ #1162 Friday, October 16th, 2020 – 12:29 pm

    The bottom line … Biden campaign manager Jen O’Malley Dillon tweeted last night: “[T]here is still a long way to go in this campaign, and we think this race is far closer than folks on this website think. Like a lot closer.”

    Indeed. Someone posted here (yesterday?) a graph showing Clinton had about the same lead as Biden at every corresponding point in the campaign so far … and went on to lose.

    It ain’t over till it’s over 🙁

  13. @7NewsSydney
    · 17h
    Prime Minister @ScottMorrisonMP has been forced to cancel tomorrow’s National Cabinet meeting as technical problems with his private RAAF plane have left him stranded in Queensland.

    Paul Barratt
    @phbarratt
    16h
    Just a reminder that he is using the RAAF to assist him in party political campaigning.

  14. Its Time,FV

    Thanks.

    Scott
    “WOW this phone tap

    Gladys is telling Maguire , what to do and telling Maguire how not to connect these with her

    Gladys is as guilty”

    As I said earlier in the week, the suggestion these people do not know the rules or what they must avoid doing is laughable. We see them doing everything they can to work around the rules and still enrich themselves.

  15. I’m noticing woke types rushing in to defend Gladys because she is a women with some people believing Gladys is only under pressure because she is a women.

  16. Alan Baxter
    @AlanBixter
    ·
    2m
    Replying to @AlanTudgeMP
    Perhaps you missed yesterday’s news (understandable given your worries about jail etc). VIC has a lower unemployment rate (6.7%) than any of the Liberal Party controlled states (NSW 7.2%, SA 7.1% and TAS 7.6%). Maybe corruption isn’t so good for the economy.

  17. lizzie @ #1177 Friday, October 16th, 2020 – 11:45 am

    Alan Baxter
    @AlanBixter
    ·
    2m
    Replying to @AlanTudgeMP
    Perhaps you missed yesterday’s news (understandable given your worries about jail etc). VIC has a lower unemployment rate (6.7%) than any of the Liberal Party controlled states (NSW 7.2%, SA 7.1% and TAS 7.6%). Maybe corruption isn’t so good for the economy.

    A note of caution though. Current unemployment stats might not be a good measure of an economy if non-working jobkeeper recipients are classed as employed.

  18. Victoria
    Trump’s appeal for some people seems to be because he is everything the left hates. It is basically a rejection of wokism or pc and many people wrongly in my view don’t support globalization which Trump played on but Trump also got lucky that Clinton’s campaign in 16 was so ordinary.

  19. Teresa Randal
    @RandaltsRandal
    ·
    6m
    So they managed to fix Shark 1’s rubber band then…

    Pity the string between the 2 baked bean tins couldn’t be mended in time for National Cabinet.

  20. Mexicanbeemer @ #1177 Friday, October 16th, 2020 – 12:45 pm

    I’m noticing woke types rushing in to defend Gladys because she is a women with some people believing Gladys is only under pressure because she is a women.

    And where were these same Woke Women when Julia Gillard was being monumentally harassed by media and political men? The lady had to defend herself!

    Which she did magnificently in a speech for the ages, btw.

  21. C@tmomma @ #1183 Friday, October 16th, 2020 – 1:02 pm

    Mexicanbeemer @ #1177 Friday, October 16th, 2020 – 12:45 pm

    I’m noticing woke types rushing in to defend Gladys because she is a women with some people believing Gladys is only under pressure because she is a women.

    And where were these same Woke Women when Julia Gillard was being monumentally harassed by media and political men? The lady had to defend herself!

    Which she did magnificently in a speech for the ages, btw.

    They’re not woke women; they’re doctors wives.

  22. And in news that will surprise no one, Trump failed this time to denounce QAnon (last time it was the White Supremacists):

    Donald Trump refused to denounce the pro-Trump QAnon conspiracy theory at his town hall on Thursday, instead praising the dangerous movement as people who “are very much against pedophilia.”

    NBC host Savannah Guthrie pressed Trump on previous praise for QAnon believers as “people who love our country,” and asked him to disavow QAnon believers’ claims that the world is controlled by a cabal of Satanic pedophiles in the Democratic Party that he is on the verge of destroying.

    “[C]an you,” Guthrie asked, “just once and for all state that that is completely not true and disavow QAnon in its entirety?”

    Trump, who had just finished up complaining to Guthrie that he’s constantly being asked to disavow white supremacists, refused to disavow QAnon.

    “I know nothing about it,” Trump said. “I do know they are very much against pedophilia, they fight it very hard.”

    https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-refuses-to-denounce-qanon-at-nbc-town-hall

    Not to mention the fact that you can be supportive of anti-paedophilia groups but not necessarily for QAnon. Also, there is no paedophilia network of the type QAnon posits.

  23. “I’m noticing woke types rushing in to defend Gladys because she is a women with some people believing Gladys is only under pressure because she is a women.”

    Michelle Grattan dealt with that pretty well in her article this morning. She suggested the opposite: that Gladys was being treated with kid-gloves because of sympathy over her good handling of the bushfires and covid. Once Gladys’ potential conflict of interest became actual, her failure to declare it was indefensible. So has she done anything wrong? Yes.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-16/gladys-berejiklian-icac-maguire/12771580

    We have gotten so used to badly behaved politicians that we have come to accept it. The banality of hypocrisy?

  24. C@T
    The ones i’ve seen were from men which is why i’m describing their comments has wokist but they could be Liberals.

  25. a.r
    The reactionary mind is a confusing place. It seems the moment someone considered progressive talks about it or when someone from the right calls it lefty or socialism then it becomes branded leftist. It is everybit has absurd as it sounds.

  26. A comment on the Guardian Blog today. Says it very nicely

    It’s been a long road to hoe in Victoria and even though it’s obviously not over, it is a mammoth effort of which Victorians should be proud.

    My thanks to all our doctors, nurses, ambos, contact tracers, and essential workers who all should know how much we appreciate their efforts.

    My thanks to the tireless and determined Daniel Andrews for his commitment and determined hard work. My thanks to Brett Sutton and his team for their high-pressure efforts.

    To the haters, the hecklers, the hunters, the doomsayers in the Victorian Liberal Party Opposition, in the Morrison Government and in the media – we have done this DESPITE you. Your politicisation of this pandemic for your political agendas shames you all.

    Mistakes were made, and there were consequences. Did we do that deliberately? No. Other governments made mistakes too, but you forgave and ignored those because they didn’t fit your political agenda.

    You didn’t put Victorians first. You put yourselves and your political agendas first. You made our efforts more difficult. No thanks to you.

  27. Victoria says:
    Friday, October 16, 2020 at 1:12 pm
    Apparently Morrison is now back in Sydney.

    Always knew he could fly like Superman!

  28. Victoria says:
    Friday, October 16, 2020 at 1:12 pm
    Apparently Morrison is now back in Sydney.

    Ah there he is, under the “Sydney” shell.

  29. “You must really want Trump to win, yes?”

    ***

    No, actually, I can’t wait until he is gone. I find Trump to be utterly abhorrent and I absolutely abhor how the Blue and Red MAGA cultists waste their days obsessing over him in their different ways. That’s exactly what a chronic narcissist like him craves. I honestly hope he just goes away and is never heard from again. However, that does not mean that I will blindly go along with supporting someone like Biden who is responsible for so much pain and suffering. They are both evil.

    I am calling on the American people to remove Donald Trump from office and elect Howie Hawkins as the 46th President of the United States.

  30. Jones is a total sook.

    “So here is my tribute,” Lee said according to documents filed in court. “Alan Jones spoke to the fears of every xenophobe and misogynist in the country. He gleefully used racial slurs, saying the N-word twice on air. He spread lies and fake news about climate change and repeatedly tried to undermine the severity of the coronavirus, whilst isolating in his country estate.

    “He secretly took money from companies to spruik their products on air, was arrested once, and sued for defamation more times than I can count. Oh, and he was on the radio for a bit.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2020/oct/16/alan-jones-sues-sbs-and-the-feed-presenter-alex-lee-for-defamation

  31. Houston denounces ‘ill-disciplined’ wolverines
    Ex defence chief Angus Houston

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/former-defence-chief-angus-houston-denounces-illdisciplined-wolverines-over-loose-china-talk/news-story/e7ec24160b9ed360cb472af8c904db7b
    I’d forgotten about this bipartisan bunch of wankers. A couple of snippets from other articles.

    The members last year informally branded themselves the Wolverines, the name of an American high school group who fought off a Soviet invasion in the 1984 film Red Dawn.

    Small stickers with wolf claws have been spotted on their office windows in parliament.

    .
    Ohh look, stickers, collect set.Swap them with your friends.

    Liberal senator James Paterson presents his colleague Senator Eric Abetz with a sticker to mark his membership of the Wolverines.

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