Two polls and a by-election date

Daniel Andrews continues to keep his head above water, despite waning patience with Victoria’s lockdown measures.

Opinion poll and by-election developments:

• Roy Morgan has published another of its SMS polls from Victoria, which records little change on state voting intention from a fortnight ago: Labor leads 51.5-48.5 on two-party preferred, as they did last time, from primary votes of Labor 40% (up one), Coalition 36% (down one) and Greens 9% (down one). Daniel Andrews records a 59-41 approval/disapproval split, in from 61-39 last time. However, support for existing lockdown measures is fast dissipating: there is now a 73-27 split in favour of allowing visits to immediate family members (out from 59-41 last time and 55-45 three weeks previously); 62-38 in favour of allowing table service (56-44 in favour last time and 63-37 against the time before); and 72-28 in favour of relaxing the five kilometre rule (61-39 in favour last time, 50-50 the time before). The poll was conducted Monday and Tuesday from a sample of 899 for voting intention and 1163 for the lockdown questions.

• The Australian had results from a further question on the weekend’s Newspoll yesterday, which found 54% were more concerned about moving too quickly to relax lockdowns and restrictions, down two from mid-September, and 43% were more concerned about moving too slowly at the expense of the economy, jobs and mental wellbeing (up four).

• The date for the Groom by-election has been set at November 28.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,416 comments on “Two polls and a by-election date”

Comments Page 22 of 29
1 21 22 23 29
  1. Confessions @ #1048 Friday, October 16th, 2020 – 8:50 am

    Just had a look at Miranda Devine’s twitter account and noticed she has retweeted Glenn Greenwald. The humanity!

    I wonder how she feels that she has fallen victim to Russian disinformation being laundered through Murdoch media and badged with her name.

    1. I keep wondering whatever happened to Glenn Greenwald’s integrity?

    2. Miranda Devine doesn’t care what she needs to do as long as it gets the Authoritarian Father figure elected. (Jeez I’d be interested to psychoanalyse the issues she had with her father, Frank Devine).

  2. Scott @ #1041 Friday, October 16th, 2020 – 8:40 am

    lizzie says:
    Friday, October 16, 2020 at 8:29 am
    9News Australia
    @9NewsAUS
    Prime Minister Scott Morrison is unable to hold a planned National Cabinet meeting from Cairns because he can’t access a secure internet link. #9News

    Chris Coleman
    @CJCau
    ·
    10m
    Replying to
    @9NewsAUS
    Any of your journalists asked why he can’t use the Naval base in Cairns? Or does the navy rely on messages in bottles from up there?

    ———

    Where did all the millions of dollars in funding go ,which Morrison and cronies claim was spent on cyber security ?

    Where did all the millions of dollars in funding go ,which Morrison and cronies claim was spent on cyber security ?’
    Mr Albanese said earlier this morning 9now that the gloves are off and there’s no more Mr Nice Guy, apparently…..any day now)

  3. 1. I keep wondering whatever happened to Glenn Greenwald’s integrity?

    I think he’s another seduced by conspiracy theories and the Trump persona.

  4. 2 new cases in Vic, zero deaths.

    No doubt there will be screams to reopen, however perhaps we need to invest an extra week or 2. Toad O’Brien here in Vic is saying re-open everything. Can somebody send this clown to Israel (who re-opened when in single digits) and see the effect this has???

    Investing an extra week or 2 on this side could save you months of doing this again on the flip side.

  5. From the Dawn Patrol:

    Phil Coorey says if people are unwilling to acknowledge error on their own side, politics collapses because there are no agreed norms.

    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/dan-s-fans-and-trump-s-base-spot-the-difference-20201015-p56592

    He’ll obviously hath no fury like a journo denied his meme.

    Why, oh why can’t the public get it through their thick heads that hacks with newspaper columns, Sunrise bimbos, on-the-drip shock jocks, talking point insiders, 9- Fax toadies and Sky News ratbags determine just who is “in trouble” and who is “doing a magnificent job under trying circumstances”?

    The electors are supposed to get their cues from Those In The Know, not the other way ‘ round. If the media don’t run Australia, who does?

    If Phil Coorey points out that a Premier – one who actually saved lives, implemented anti-COVID policies that reduced infections from thousands and death from hundreds to just a trickle in a couple of month, and who personally fronts the media every day to take every question bowled up to him – is the cult equivalent of an orange-faced, lying, preening, election-rigging, narcissistic buffoon who has called on his supporters to monster his political opposition at ballot places, and to carry out armed conflict against their own nation should he lose the election, then Phil Coorey must have a good reason to do so.

    And should we disagree with him, we’ll be banned not only from responding to his tweets, but from even reading them. Throw in the AFR paywall and it’s pretty-well impossible to read or monitor any of Coorey’s output at all.

    Which suits me just fine.

    But let’s not hear any more blather about how these media monsters from their own ids don’t live in a bubble of self-congratulation and mutual mental and moral masturbation.

    For the drip-fed, foul-mouthed, shoulder-shrugging Coorey to equate Dan Andrews’ supporters with Donald Trump’s shows exactly where re-breathing and recycling your own fetid exhalations, media bunker exhaust fumes and opinionated brainfarts gets you: mockery, ridicule and isolation. The beauty of it is that they impose that isolation upon their over-paid selves.

    The only question really needs asking is: why would anyone bother trying to make sense out of anything Phil Coorey writes in the first place?

  6. Gladys getting no help from witnesses at ICAC as she sinks further into the quicksand:

    The New South Wales premier, Gladys Berejiklian, dined at Daryl Maguire’s Wagga Wagga home with a business associate he partnered with to run a cash-for-visa scheme, Icac has heard.

    …One of the key allegations against Maguire is that he used his office to help run a cash-for-visa scheme through his silent involvement in a company known as G8wayinternational Pty Ltd, which claimed it had access to “high levels of government” and offered introduction services and visas to Chinese business groups for money.

    One of his partners in that company was Phil Elliott, the Wagga RSL director and a close friend of Maguire’s, Icac has heard.

    Elliot’s partner, Karen Joan Barbey, told Icac investigators that she had known Maguire for 30 years and met Berejiklian on a number of occasions.

    When asked which Liberal MPs she had met, Barbey, a high school teacher with little interest in politics, told investigators: “Um, Gladys – yeah Gladys and oh I don’t – I’m not really good with names. I don’t know. That – just local ones. I don’t know. I’m not big on politics.”

    Barbey said she had met Berejiklian at a function, a dinner at a local Wagga Wagga restaurant, and at a dinner at their house.

    “There was one at the – one near the underpass. Met her there and I have met her at Daryl’s place,” she said. “We had dinner at night as well and I’m trying to think. Um, I think those – oh and we went to Romano’s [restaurant] for dinner one night.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/oct/16/gladys-berejiklian-dined-with-daryl-maguire-and-his-partner-in-visa-scheme-icac-documents-show

    To think that these meetings only involved polite chit chat and not discussions about the McGuire/Elliott business interests is to believe in fairies. That’s not how McGuire operated.

  7. While we’re opining on Trump and his male supporters’ character… IMO Trump appeals to uneducated boorish egotistical and failed men. He shows them a dream they can never have. He belittles those they can’t. They live through him. They love him for it.

  8. Thanks Jaeger for the story on super-conductivity. It will be interesting if the carbon lattice idea is useful. I forgive them for using Fahrenheit temperature scale, 59F is 15C.

  9. BB

    Yeah sure. Those who support dan andrews and those whom support Trump. Same same.

    Phil coorey is a bona fide idiot. And yeah, another one who Doesn’t reside in Melbourne, but knows how we are thinking.

    Just when the msm in this country couldn’t get worse,

  10. This plastic surgeon says we need a new model, now, to defeat the “stubborn tail”. (This is not to support VicLibs strategy of opening everything up.)

    Models and mathematics and statistics cannot answer the important questions now. Policies and promises made by people sitting in a tower with no risk of exposure can’t reliably inform what we need to do.

    We do not have a 10 per cent versus a 20 per cent chance of a third wave. We have a 0 per cent chance or a 100 per cent chance. This will be decided by our actions and interventions, not the hope that 10 per cent on a stochastic model will really land at 0.

    Lockdown has been an essential crisis intervention, but policies that actually respond to the “stubborn tail” and its specific causes are now key. A key held by essential workers like me.

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/we-are-relying-on-the-wrong-science-to-crush-melbourne-s-stubborn-tail-20201014-p564z1.html

  11. Twitter has been down worldwide for almost an hour in the lead up to the Biden and Trump town halls.

    Immediately prior the hashing #crookedjoebiden was trending at 287,000.

    Technical outage?
    Attack?
    Deliberate by Twitter to counter bot attack?

  12. Thanks firefox for reminding me I must post the Victorian Government press releases to provide something other than stunts for the day.

    Online training package for Workers joining the grains industry for this season’s harvest.
    https://www.premier.vic.gov.au/new-training-supports-grains-industry-workers

    43 media outlets and publications across Victoria will share in $500,000 through the Multicultural Media Grants Program.
    https://www.premier.vic.gov.au/multicultural-media-boost-reach-more-victorians

  13. ajm:

    According to the report I posted earlier Twitter and Facebook have been suspending accounts that are promoting the fake news Hunter Biden story. Wonder if that’s it.

  14. Nor do I

    DropletFace with medical maskQueen Victoria
    @Vic_Rollison
    ·
    1h
    Hypothetically, if Morrison was campaigning in Queensland and some international crisis occurred which required him to meet securely with other world leaders, he’s saying he couldn’t do that unless he could get a flight to Sydney first? I don’t believe him.

  15. Thanks lizzie for the link.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/we-are-relying-on-the-wrong-science-to-crush-melbourne-s-stubborn-tail-20201014-p564z1.html

    These models can no longer help. We are in the realm of all or nothing statistics.

    Two points.
    * Any tail if it runs long enough will trigger another outbreak. It’s like rolling a dice. If you keep at it eventually you will roll 3 sixes. It’s what you do then that matters.
    * I think the tail will be with us for a while. What we’ve been lucky to achieve in Qld I think will be the mid-term future for Australia. Qld has had only a small number of cases per day for some time now. But the vigilance by a few has continued. (I recently experienced the incredible and admirable machine that is the Royal Brisbane Womens Hospital.) That vigilance has allowed small outbreaks to be quickly isolated. It has allowed most of us “up here” to be aware of the problem but to treat the minor inconveniences (stretched queues, ubiquitous hand sanitiser, etc) as no more imposing on our lives than brushing our teeth twice a day. For the most part we can just get on with things.

  16. Morrison has just compromised Australia’s security by telling the world, especially China, that:

    1. The RAAF does not have enough serviceable aircraft to return him to Sydney expeditiously;

    2. HMAS Cairns does not have secure communication facilities.

  17. Bushfire Bill
    Friday, October 16th, 2020 – 9:10 am
    Comment #1058

    monsters from their own ids

    Now we’re talking …..the end scene is the planet exploding ….reality from fiction ❓ Spacecraft to Mars while we work feverishly to create our very own Martian landscape.

    Robbie the Robot starring as the Parliamentary Butler – producing and serving top shelf 🍹 booze 🍸with tropical addons (little umbrellas doncha know). 🧉 – that’s a “mate drink” -whatever that is.

  18. For some “dark humour” reading this article is a good chuckle. (Posted earlier I know, but worth a replay.)
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/15/brazil-police-cash-jair-bolsonaro-ally-buttocks-chico-rodrigues

    Police find cash hidden between Bolsonaro ally’s buttocks

    Brazilians shared the news under the viral hashtag #PropinaNaBunda (A Bribe up the Bum). Many suggested that the find would be remembered “in the anals of history”.

  19. ajm @ #1067 Friday, October 16th, 2020 – 8:37 am

    Twitter has been down worldwide for almost an hour in the lead up to the Biden and Trump town halls.

    Immediately prior the hashing #crookedjoebiden was trending at 287,000.

    Technical outage?
    Attack?
    Deliberate by Twitter to counter bot attack?

    Apparently there is one tweet in the last hour and it is mocking Twitter users for being stressed. The name on the account keeps changing. Trumpistas taking Twitter down for being mean to their latest misinformation?

  20. “Morrison has just compromised Australia’s security by telling the world, especially China…”

    Or maybe he’s just telling lies again.

  21. ajm @ #1076 Friday, October 16th, 2020 – 9:05 am

    ajm @ #1067 Friday, October 16th, 2020 – 8:37 am

    Twitter has been down worldwide for almost an hour in the lead up to the Biden and Trump town halls.

    Immediately prior the hashing #crookedjoebiden was trending at 287,000.

    Technical outage?
    Attack?
    Deliberate by Twitter to counter bot attack?

    Apparently there is one tweet in the last hour and it is mocking Twitter users for being stressed. The name on the account keeps changing. Trumpistas taking Twitter down for being mean to their latest misinformation?

    I wondered that too. Seems a bit counter productive though. I guess we’ll know soon enough.

  22. Citizen,
    I think the Chinese can work out that he’s waiting to see if Gladys is still NSW premier after the weekend

    Maybe some in the CPG can’t

  23. I haven’t tweeted for several years. But, having just checked, I am blocked by Coorey. A few years ago I had an exchange of emails with him when he was at the SMH, but that was under my real name, not “BB”. Believe it or not there was no foul language or abuse from me, but a torrent of both – pretty nasty, actually – from him. He has a VERY short fuse. A niggle that, here on PB, would be shrugged off can make Phil Coorey explode into a torrent of four-letter words and personal abuse.

    It’s the same with most of the “prominent” journos, the majority of whom (by far) that I have had no dealings or exchanges with whatsoever. Reportedly, many on Twitter share this situation: banned en bloc.

    There’s obviously some kind of List of “Twitter pests” they circulate, to make sure they mostly only talk among themselves. They live in and report on a bubble. You can see it by the way they all agree with each other in most issues (and get upset and even more stubbornly dogmatic if public opinion doesn’t go along with their way of thinking).

    The Dan Andrews scenario is a case in point: one of the most successful sets of countermeasures employed anywhere in the world to deal with COVID-19 has, in defiance of public opinion (which has long ago moved on), been turned into a daily grind of monomaniacal obsession about what happened in a critical 6-minute period concerning private security guards, several months ago. The media, denied Andrews’ scalp early on, just will not give up on trying to turn their collective mania about the Victorian Premier into a self-fulfilling prophecy.

    Meanwhile, right at their front doorstep, Gladys Berejiklian has been literally sleeping (and dining, and dealing) with the enemy.

    Either because they did not twig to this story in the first place (because it wasn’t part of their daily drip of talking points), or because they chose to ignore a “very private” affair of five-years’ duration (which, as the evidence is daily showing, wasn’t “very private” after all), Gladys gets a free pass on the basis that a person in charge of an economy of multiple hundreds of billions of dollars, and seven million citizens, is perfectly entitled to act, in matters of lerve, like a naively infatuated school mistress in lust with a bad boy from Spivs-R-Us. That she still persists in believing (if in fact she DOES believe) that she hasn’t done anything wrong shows how hopelessly, and pathetically compromised she really is. That political reporters report and support this phantasm straight out of a Mills & Boone novel is puke-inducing.

    But as long as the media pack (no slouches in the up-themselves-and-anybody-else-going caper for that matter) want to typify the NSW Premier as the innocent dupe of a greasy, manipulative lurk merchant and his fraudulent mates, the Game will remain “Get Dan Andrews”.

  24. Not even remotely close to being good enough! Just the Lib/Lab estab teaming up as usual to prop up the rich elites. If Labor is going to try to back-flip on their support for tax cuts for the rich after having voted for them – which they definitely should – then they need to go the whole way and join with the Greens in opposing them fully.

  25. Steve777 says:
    Friday, October 16, 2020 at 10:07 am
    “Morrison has just compromised Australia’s security by telling the world, especially China…”

    Or maybe he’s just telling lies again.

    That too.

    A prize to the first person who photographs him in a tropical bar in a hawaiian shirt knocking back a few stubbies.

  26. Adding to my earlier post about reacting to the inevitable outbreak. This is Qld’s CHO speaking at a function yesterday.
    https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/queensland/i-asked-82-families-to-please-stay-home-and-they-did-it-20201015-p565bb.html

    Dr Young said she was worried about the stubbornness of the coronavirus while combating the spreading cluster triggered by three Logan women who did not disclose their travel to and from Melbourne. “It was just dragging on and I knew the longer the cluster dragged on, the more impact on people in terms of not being able to visit nursing homes and increased requirements in gatherings,” Dr Young said. “So I asked 82 families, who were contacts of contacts – they didn’t actually have anyone in that family who was a case, but they might get a case because there was a close contact in that household – that they all just please stay home and quarantine for 14 days. “And they did it. It was unbelievable.

  27. Late Riser @ #1004 Friday, October 16th, 2020 – 9:07 am

    ajm @ #1076 Friday, October 16th, 2020 – 9:05 am

    ajm @ #1067 Friday, October 16th, 2020 – 8:37 am

    Twitter has been down worldwide for almost an hour in the lead up to the Biden and Trump town halls.

    Immediately prior the hashing #crookedjoebiden was trending at 287,000.

    Technical outage?
    Attack?
    Deliberate by Twitter to counter bot attack?

    Apparently there is one tweet in the last hour and it is mocking Twitter users for being stressed. The name on the account keeps changing. Trumpistas taking Twitter down for being mean to their latest misinformation?

    I wondered that too. Seems a bit counter productive though. I guess we’ll know soon enough.

    Looks like Twitter gradually coming back online but not everyone can post yet.

  28. Frednk
    Any press release on the cost blowout on the Metro tunnel ?
    We all knew the Andrews govt would cave in.
    Just a matter of time now before they cave in on the Westgate tunnel as well.

  29. On Insiders, if the conversation is not going his way, Coorey sulks in his corner in a silent tantrum…..it is a pretty pathetic sight.

  30. We have a message for those building companies,” Premier Daniel Andrews said. “These tactics will not work.
    ________________
    Will not work i tells ya !!

  31. Kay Jay, if anyone was going to get that “monster from the id” reference, I should have realised it was going to be you.

    You have gone up in my estimation from “11” to “12”. Any more savvy on your part and I will have to order a new knob. The old one is just about worn out from constant fiddling (due mainly to your delightful interventions, of course).

  32. Firefox

    The Qld government legislated a new gambling tax in 2018, the point of consumption tax, that raises $100 million a year. Tabcorp actually took them to the Supreme Court over it.

    The $50 million tax break was a deferral of money from poker machine licenses announced in April, when there were restrictions on attending pubs and clubs. This was in line with other decisions (e.g waiving of liquor license costs) at the time to compensate businesses for lockdowns.

    The idea that a one-off $50m tax break combined with a permanent $100m annual tax increase is a good deal for the gambling industry, combined with the inference that Tabcorp struck this wonderful deal solely by paying off the Govt, has to be one of the sillier claims I’ve heard. In fact, it makes me want to subscribe to the daily “Briefly” newsletter….

Comments Page 22 of 29
1 21 22 23 29

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *