Two polls and a by-election date

Daniel Andrews continues to keep his head above water, despite waning patience with Victoria’s lockdown measures.

Opinion poll and by-election developments:

• Roy Morgan has published another of its SMS polls from Victoria, which records little change on state voting intention from a fortnight ago: Labor leads 51.5-48.5 on two-party preferred, as they did last time, from primary votes of Labor 40% (up one), Coalition 36% (down one) and Greens 9% (down one). Daniel Andrews records a 59-41 approval/disapproval split, in from 61-39 last time. However, support for existing lockdown measures is fast dissipating: there is now a 73-27 split in favour of allowing visits to immediate family members (out from 59-41 last time and 55-45 three weeks previously); 62-38 in favour of allowing table service (56-44 in favour last time and 63-37 against the time before); and 72-28 in favour of relaxing the five kilometre rule (61-39 in favour last time, 50-50 the time before). The poll was conducted Monday and Tuesday from a sample of 899 for voting intention and 1163 for the lockdown questions.

• The Australian had results from a further question on the weekend’s Newspoll yesterday, which found 54% were more concerned about moving too quickly to relax lockdowns and restrictions, down two from mid-September, and 43% were more concerned about moving too slowly at the expense of the economy, jobs and mental wellbeing (up four).

• The date for the Groom by-election has been set at November 28.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,416 comments on “Two polls and a by-election date”

Comments Page 20 of 29
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  1. Vic,
    I heard that Morrison has a technical problem with his plane, so can’t get back from Cairns to Canberra in time for NatCab.

  2. More than a little ironic that RBG is being replaced with Amy Coney Barrett. What was she thinking? Why didn’t she retire during Obama’s term? Terrible outcome for her legacy.

  4. c@tmomma:

    “Samantha Maiden
    @samanthamaiden
    I tell you one thing that’s really got me scratching my head.
    @GladysB
    sacked her ex lover in 2018 and forced him out of politics over his deals with Country Gardens. But on the phone taps she discusses Country Gardens with him. And in 2014 she discusses him getting commissions.”

    Yep. Gladys should have disclosed her relationship with Maguire to the electorate when she first became Premier, if not before. But, even if you accept her view that the relationship was a pretty inconsequential thing, it was unconscionable for her not to have disclosed it in 2018 when Maguire was leaving politics somewhat in disgrace. That the Parliament and media were not aware of this relationship meant that they were unable to put crucial questions to her about her potential involvement and, at the very least, her clear conflict of interest.

    As I’ve said before, I really don’t see how in good faith she can hope to carry on as Premier. But she seems determined to stay.

  6. Apparently Morrison’s plane has technical problems in Cairns. Still, while Cairns isn’t Waikiki beach, it does allow him to sink a few stubbies in a nice tropical location. The National Cabinet can wait.

    Live: National Cabinet postponed due to ‘technical problems’ with the PM’s plane in Cairns (ABC)

  7. Victoria @ #947 Thursday, October 15th, 2020 – 8:05 pm

    Tres interesting that Morrison has cancelled national cabinet. Is it because of Gladys B?

    In any event, the sky after dark crowd obviously want Gladys gone.
    Andrew Clennel can hardly believe what he is observing at ICAC

    See new Tweets
    Conversation
    Andrew Clennell
    @aclennell
    Premier and secret lover discussed their ‘future together’ before talks over key deals | Sky News Australia
    Premier and secret lover discussed their ‘future together’ before talks over key deals | Sky News…
    Sky News Political Editor Andrew Clennell has unveiled transcripts of private conversations between Gladys Berejiklian and Daryl Maguire talking about “their future together” right after speaking…
    skynews.com.au

    Morrison is certainly not rushing home to be with Jen, the kids and the chickens.

  9. C@t

    Yes. But surely a meeting can be arranged for even late tomorrow. It’s kinda weird.

    7NEWS Sydney
    @7NewsSydney
    · 1h
    Prime Minister @ScottMorrisonMP has been forced to cancel tomorrow’s National Cabinet meeting as technical problems with his private RAAF plane have left him stranded in Queensland. The meeting will instead happen next week. http://7NEWS.com.au #auspol #7NEWS

  12. Aha! By george, I think I’ve got it! Morrison knows there will be a new NSW Premier in NatCab by next week, so he doesn’t want to be in NatCab tomorrow with the old one swinging like a carcass in the breeze and giving off the stench of rotten meat near him.

  15. National Cabinet postponed until next week?

    Morrrison is going to spend the weekend in the beachside bars of FNQ? Hope he brought his Hawaiian shirt.

  16. But seriously, one would think the prime ministerial RAAF plane would have secure communications facilities with sufficient bandwidth. Surely.

    Or have I been watching too many movies 🙂

  17. Victoria @ #957 Thursday, October 15th, 2020 – 7:19 pm

    C@t

    Yes. But surely a meeting can be arranged for even late tomorrow. It’s kinda weird.

    7NEWS Sydney
    @7NewsSydney
    · 1h
    Prime Minister @ScottMorrisonMP has been forced to cancel tomorrow’s National Cabinet meeting as technical problems with his private RAAF plane have left him stranded in Queensland. The meeting will instead happen next week. http://7NEWS.com.au #auspol #7NEWS

    Stranded? In Queensland? The poor thing.

    I was just reading (again) about the 1,000 stranded Australians per month (out of 29,100) that will be helped to return home to Howard Springs, and that of those “identified as vulnerable” 3/4 are still not back. The juxtaposition was jarring.

  20. Saw this on Twitter. Assume exchange between Andrews and Credlin

    Julian Andrew
    @JulianAndrew63
    Credlin: “But Ruby Princess was not material to the ADF” Andrews: “Cruise Ships are”
    C: “I beg your pardon Premier but Ruby Princess is actually a matter for Australian BORDER FORCE”
    A: “Well not when it comes to turning up to enquiries to get to the bottom of it it seems.”Rolling on the floor laughingRolling on the floor laughing
    1:18 PM · Oct 15, 2020·Twitter Web App

  21. There’s no RAAF base in Qld that couldn’t pick up the buffoon and deliver him to Sydney inside 3 or 4 hours? Pull the other one.

  23. nath:

    Thursday, October 15, 2020 at 8:09 pm

    [‘More than a little ironic that RBG is being replaced with Amy Coney Barrett. What was she thinking? Why didn’t she retire during Obama’s term? Terrible outcome for her legacy.’]

    She obviously thought, like most, that Clinton would prevail. The only remedy is for Biden to increase the number of associate justices. The vote on Barrett’s confirmation will take place in the Senate on October 29, following which (on November 10) the ACA will be before the SCOTUS.
    I viewed the Senate hearings on Tuesday and Wednesday, and I can tell you that the left has plenty to worry about with her elevation, it only being a matter of time before Roe v. Wade is
    reconsidered, Barrett of the view that this landmark case does not constitute a super precedent, code for that the conservatives on the bench will either strike it down or emasculate it.

  24. Didn’t Morrison pull this trick when in Hawaii? Claimed he couldn’t book a seat on a flight back to Australia when the bushfires were raging. so had to stay in the beachside bar for a few days longer.

  26. C@t may well be on the money with the ‘technical problem’ ScottyFromBunnings has, causing National Cabinet to be postponed till next week.

    You need to have a NSW Premier in attendance. This would be difficult tomorrow.

  27. By mistake, the ICAC transcripts of the private sessions got released.

    Allegedly, they show a deal of planning for an open life together between Daryl and Gladys, after he had cleared his debts.

  28. Late Riser says:
    Thursday, October 15, 2020 at 8:09 pm

    Well maybe they didn’t stuff up the IT systems and screw the NBN, they might have a chance ?

  29. sprocket_ @ #974 Thursday, October 15th, 2020 – 7:42 pm

    C@t may well be on the money with the ‘technical problem’ ScottyFromBunnings has, causing National Cabinet to be postponed till next week.

    You need to have a NSW Premier in attendance. This would be difficult tomorrow.

    Maybe. But Morrison does not strike me as someone willing to take one for the team. Being “stranded in Cairns” doesn’t help his image.

  33. David Stephens says: Thursday, October 15, 2020 at 8:12 pm
    The P.M.’s piston broke.

    He is? I know he’s a boozer but I thought he had millions in offshore banks.

  36. Mrs Sprocket says Daryl is a narcissist who ‘love bombed’ Gladys, and she is an ‘empath’ who can’t get out of his sway. Daryl will discard Gladys when he has no further use for her, but she will remain besotted on a schedule of partial reinforcement, which he will exploit.

    This analysis after watching Ch10 news for the last few days.

  40. Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #624 Thursday, October 15th, 2020 – 11:05 am

    lizzie @ #618 Thursday, October 15th, 2020 – 8:03 am

    Even in a judge, apparently rational thinking is not required.

    Linda Mottram @LindaMottram
    Judge Barrett agrees COVID is infectious, smoking causes cancer, but declines to accept the science of climate change.

    What are the flaws in the science behind climate change?

    There are none. Without the greenhouse effect, caused for the most part by CO2 in the atmosphere, the earth’s average temperature would be many tens of degrees cooler, and the ‘climate’ would be utterly different. It follows absolutely, that if the CO2 concentration goes up by a substantial amount, the greenhouse effect will become much greater, the average temperature over the whole of the earth will increase, and the climate will change, everywhere. There is no feasible, rational conclusion available for the outcome to be otherwise.

  41. Josh Robertson
    @jrojourno
    ·
    2h
    Deb Frecklington went to 18/8 dinner hosted by a prohibited donor.. attendees donated to LNP $2500 x 3 (17/8) $2k (18/8) $2500 (19/8) $2500 (20/8) $1500(17/9) $5500 (10/7) $7300 (14/9) .. she says a “private event” not a fundraiser #QLDvotes2020 https://abc.net.au/news/2020-10-1

  42. citizen:

    Thursday, October 15, 2020 at 8:56 pm

    [‘Why is Gladys walking behind? Surely as Premier she is the senior personage?’]

    She would’ve met Xi Jinping first, standing back when McGuire shook his hand. That’s the protocol.

  44. FWIW, Sportsbet odds on ACT election are Labor $1.15 and Liberals $5.00.

    As expected, odds of Labor-Green are $1.60 and Labor Majority $3.50. Nothing unexpected here.

    My electorate (Brindabella in the south of Canberra) is expected to remain at Liberal 3, Labor 2. Too many grumpy old people unfortunately!

  46. It looks like Murdoch, Trump and Giuliani’s attempt to slime Joe Biden, has lasted all of one day:

    President Trump’s personal attorney Rudolph W. Giuliani and his former top adviser Stephen K. Bannon, who have attracted the scrutiny of U.S. authorities for their political dealings in recent months, helped make public private materials purported to belong to Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden’s son in an attempt to swing support to the struggling incumbent.

    The Washington Post was unable to verify the authenticity of the alleged emails and other correspondence that the New York Post published Wednesday and said had come from the younger Biden’s computer and hard drive.

    Neither Giuliani nor Bannon responded to multiple requests to review the hard drive and other materials for verification, nor did they respond to phone calls and emails on Wednesday seeking interviews.

    An attorney for Giuliani responded to an email on which he was copied to ask what outlet the reporter represented. There were no further replies.

    The New York Post, which is owned by conservative media tycoon Rupert Murdoch, said its report was based on materials it said it heard about from Bannon and were provided by Giuliani. The material, which it described as a “massive trove of data” that included video, was the subject of several stories published Wednesday.

    Since late last year, Giuliani has said, he has met multiple times with Ukrainian lawmaker Andriy Derkach. The U.S. Treasury imposed sanctions on Derkach in September for being an active Russian agent interfering in the 2020 campaign, which Derkach has denied. Bannon recently pleaded not guilty to federal money-laundering and fraud charges.

    The report Wednesday did not markedly advance what is already known about Hunter Biden’s foreign business dealings, other than to suggest that at one point he gave Vadym Pozharskyi, a Ukrainian business colleague, “an opportunity” to meet his father. The Biden campaign said the vice president’s schedule indicated no such meeting.

    “We have reviewed Joe Biden’s official schedules from the time and no meeting, as alleged by the New York Post, ever took place,” Biden campaign spokesman Andrew Bates said.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/hunter-joe-biden-emails/2020/10/14/2740c702-0e4c-11eb-8074-0e943a91bf08_story.html

  48. sprocket_ @ #975 Thursday, October 15th, 2020 – 7:46 pm

    By mistake, the ICAC transcripts of the private sessions got released.

    Allegedly, they show a deal of planning for an open life together between Daryl and Gladys, after he had cleared his debts.

    Must have been too slow. The transcripts I got off the ICAC site were just full of boring black boxes. 🙁

  49. I had a day off today so I went door knocking for Michael Berkman, the only Greens MP in the Queensland Parliament. I got some positive feedback from a Labor voter called Bruce in Fig Tree Pocket (a western suburb of Brisbane). He told me that he likes Michael Berkman and he likes the fact that the Greens have some representation in the parliament but he is still undecided because he has long been a Labor voter. After our conversation he tweeted this comment at Michael Berkman:

    https://mobile.twitter.com/Jesusexplosion/status/1316627654838087680

  50. WSJ poll demographics..

    Among Blacks:
    Biden 91%
    Trump 4%

    Latinos:
    Biden 62%
    Trump 26%

    Women:
    Biden 60%
    Trump 34%

    Voters ages 18 to 34:
    Biden 57%
    Trump 34%

    Whites with college degrees:
    Biden 57%
    Trump 38%

    Seniors:
    Biden 54%
    Trump 44%

    Independents:
    Biden 46%
    Trump 39%

    @NBCNews/@WSJ, RV

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