Two polls and a by-election date

Daniel Andrews continues to keep his head above water, despite waning patience with Victoria’s lockdown measures.

Opinion poll and by-election developments:

• Roy Morgan has published another of its SMS polls from Victoria, which records little change on state voting intention from a fortnight ago: Labor leads 51.5-48.5 on two-party preferred, as they did last time, from primary votes of Labor 40% (up one), Coalition 36% (down one) and Greens 9% (down one). Daniel Andrews records a 59-41 approval/disapproval split, in from 61-39 last time. However, support for existing lockdown measures is fast dissipating: there is now a 73-27 split in favour of allowing visits to immediate family members (out from 59-41 last time and 55-45 three weeks previously); 62-38 in favour of allowing table service (56-44 in favour last time and 63-37 against the time before); and 72-28 in favour of relaxing the five kilometre rule (61-39 in favour last time, 50-50 the time before). The poll was conducted Monday and Tuesday from a sample of 899 for voting intention and 1163 for the lockdown questions.

• The Australian had results from a further question on the weekend’s Newspoll yesterday, which found 54% were more concerned about moving too quickly to relax lockdowns and restrictions, down two from mid-September, and 43% were more concerned about moving too slowly at the expense of the economy, jobs and mental wellbeing (up four).

• The date for the Groom by-election has been set at November 28.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,416 comments on “Two polls and a by-election date”

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  1. This testimony by Maguire is pretty hilarious:

    so this Alhar(?) fellow hounds Maguire for months to arrange a drop in meeting with Gladys over some planning proposal – he finally gets the meeting, but according to Maguire that particular proposal wasn’t even mentioned!

    I get the feeling her ex-lover will ensure that Gladys is safe.

  2. The point I was making was that in January 2019 a massacre in Australia was possible but was much easier to organise in New Zealand. Now probably the same difficulty.
    This time last year I was in NZ and there were no security checks on internal flights

  3. alarming infections spread across regional Victoria.

    What would they say if the infections numbered in the thousands? Alarmist nonsense.

    But don’t worry, Scomo is taking the other tack. He says we should all open our borders NOW.

  4. Big A Adrian says:
    Thursday, October 15, 2020 at 10:32 am
    This testimony by Maguire is pretty hilarious:

    so this Alhar(?) fellow hounds Maguire for months to arrange a drop in meeting with Gladys over some planning proposal – he finally gets the meeting, but according to Maguire that particular proposal wasn’t even mentioned!

    I get the feeling her ex-lover will ensure that Gladys is safe.

    ——–

    It shows Maguire indirectly proves that Gladys knew what he was doing , and she done nothing bout it

  5. Maguire evidence doesnt help Gladys , that she knew nothing

    It enforces that Gladys purposely turned a blind eye to the corrupt like behaviour

    Gladys if she had any decency should resign at the upcoming press conference

  6. ‘At the time the Constitution was ratified, women couldn’t vote, much less be judges’ – Hillary Clinton. A clear shot at Barrett, a literalist until such time that it doesn’t suit her less than hidden agenda, and who’s completely indifferent to the manner in which she’ll be appointed to the Supreme Court, always remembered as Trump’s vassal.

  7. The PMO has ‘accidentally’ sent the Government’s talking points to the media .

    This is just the same gaslighting we’ve been hearing for days. Can’t they think up something new???

  8. “It shows Maguire indirectly proves that Gladys knew what he was doing , and she done nothing bout it”

    I dunno… I’ve given up predicting what these ICAC hearings will result in…

    I mean after the Arthur ‘see-no-donors’ joke, I honestly think its possible for liberal politicians to get away with pretty much any sort of corruption.

  9. Big A Adrian @ #603 Thursday, October 15th, 2020 – 10:32 am

    This testimony by Maguire is pretty hilarious:

    so this Alhar(?) fellow hounds Maguire for months to arrange a drop in meeting with Gladys over some planning proposal – he finally gets the meeting, but according to Maguire that particular proposal wasn’t even mentioned!

    I get the feeling her ex-lover will ensure that Gladys is safe.

    Not sure it’s going to be up to him.

  10. If, and that’s a big if, Gladys survives the taint of her relationship with Maguire will cripple her political career for years. Morrison’s “defending” her will only last until it all falls down around her then he’ll drop her like a ton of bricks.

  11. In this bovver boys pose, above Scomo’s right shoulder, i think it says “Grand Pricks”!!

    Talk about honesty in advertising. It must be an oversight by SfM!

  12. Even in a judge, apparently rational thinking is not required.

    Linda Mottram @LindaMottram
    Judge Barrett agrees COVID is infectious, smoking causes cancer, but declines to accept the science of climate change.

  13. In what way could using your position as a politician for personal benefit not be corrupt?

    If the answer is, there is no way, then Berejiklian’s position is completely untenable, as she knew he was doing so and failed to report it.

  14. @davidbewart
    ·
    3m
    Replying to
    @9NewsQueensland
    Don’t need MPs now. Just email the talking points to the tv and a nice lady will read them out for the liberals

  15. How many meetings with hoped for benefits did McGuire arrange with Gladys and how many did she attend with these people, who got the sort of access only money appears to have been able to buy?

  16. Will the rest of the media handle this story responsibly? Thomas Rid, a cyber and disinformation expert at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, tweeted out a thread urging caution.

    The inclusion of “.ukraine” in the sender’s address, plus the Cyrillic characters at the end – presumably for the slow thinkers who don’t get that it’s about dirty deals with shady Ukranian characters – are enough to show the “email” is dubious.

    I’m surprised they didn’t have a neat sentence added, like “Psssst… BTW, don’t tell anyone! This lunch is SUPER SECRET because it’s dodgy. Pass it on!”

    That would be for the REALLY slow thinkers.

  17. sandyj
    @bsadams25

    Scott Morrison the Treasurer at the time of Airport land sale ……the Immigration Minister at the time of Maguire visa scam……the Prime Minister at the time of Sports Rorts….

  18. Rakali @ #620 Thursday, October 15th, 2020 – 11:02 am

    ” rel=”nofollow ugc”>

    In this bovver boys pose, above Scomo’s right shoulder, i think it says “Grand Pricks”!!

    Talk about honesty in advertising. It must be an oversight by SfM!

    It’s fun, you know all this laughing at Scrooter and making fun of how useless they are and all that, and it makes some of us feel like we’re really sticking to the Scrote.
    But, we’re not.
    He’s still there.
    The punters love him.
    Most reckon he’s doing a real bang up job.
    When is it going to go pear shaped?
    Are we half way there yet?

  19. There should be a Royal Commission into land deals around Badgerys Creek Airport – like bees to a honeypot, the property spivs and their Liberal handlers have been gorging themselves.

  20. ItzaDream

    A secret affair with meetings for a quick nookie is one thing. No time for much conversation.
    But Gladys attended meetings with him, had many phone calls. She’s trying to bluff us and got angry with the “insulting questions”.

  21. lizzie @ #639 Thursday, October 15th, 2020 – 11:16 am

    ItzaDream

    A secret affair with meetings for a quick nookie is one thing. No time for much conversation.
    But Gladys attended meetings with him, had many phone calls. She’s trying to bluff us and got angry with the “insulting questions”.

    I need no convincing lizzie. I’m amazed she can show her face in public.

    And the anger betrays a lot.

  22. From a comment on the Guardian Blog

    Rudd petition now up to 243,000 plus

    I know it will be unlikely to go anywhere but this is getting massive.

  23. Also from the Guardian

    just wanted to correct and apologise for my comments on the timing of Daniel Andrews’ press conference today. It is being held at 11.51am because that is the time that the West Gate bridge collapsed, 50 years ago today. Thirty five people died.

  24. On climate change denial in general and Fake Judge Barrett:
    “inda Mottram @LindaMottram
    Judge Barrett agrees COVID is infectious, smoking causes cancer, but declines to accept the science of climate change. ”

    This terminology “I decline/refuse to accept the science of climate change” is increasingly the standard debating tactic of fossil fuel lobbyists. she has obviously been coached to say this. It is a deliberate and cynically dishonest tactic.

    They are trying to imply that it is a matter of opinion, “you may accept it, but I don’t have to”. They imply you get to pick and choose your science. That you don’t have the right to choose what I believe. But science doesn’t work that way.

    Consider another example: “I decline to accept the science of electricity”. You may accept electricity, but I don’t have to. Sounds ridiculous, until you recall how many Pennsylvania Amish still use horse and buggies.

  25. ItzaDream

    I didn’t mean to suggest you needed convincing. Sorry. I was making a general observation and foolishly headed it up with your name. Frankly, I was a bit distracted by remembering my own experiences. 😉

  26. lizzie @ #648 Thursday, October 15th, 2020 – 11:28 am

    ItzaDream

    I didn’t mean to suggest you needed convincing. Sorry. I was making a general observation and foolishly headed it up with your name. Frankly, I was a bit distracted by remembering my own experiences. 😉

    No worries lizzie, and I too was making a general statement, but under your name. So, same same. I’m sorry to hear you might be reliving unpleasantries.

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