Two polls and a by-election date

Daniel Andrews continues to keep his head above water, despite waning patience with Victoria’s lockdown measures.

Opinion poll and by-election developments:

• Roy Morgan has published another of its SMS polls from Victoria, which records little change on state voting intention from a fortnight ago: Labor leads 51.5-48.5 on two-party preferred, as they did last time, from primary votes of Labor 40% (up one), Coalition 36% (down one) and Greens 9% (down one). Daniel Andrews records a 59-41 approval/disapproval split, in from 61-39 last time. However, support for existing lockdown measures is fast dissipating: there is now a 73-27 split in favour of allowing visits to immediate family members (out from 59-41 last time and 55-45 three weeks previously); 62-38 in favour of allowing table service (56-44 in favour last time and 63-37 against the time before); and 72-28 in favour of relaxing the five kilometre rule (61-39 in favour last time, 50-50 the time before). The poll was conducted Monday and Tuesday from a sample of 899 for voting intention and 1163 for the lockdown questions.

• The Australian had results from a further question on the weekend’s Newspoll yesterday, which found 54% were more concerned about moving too quickly to relax lockdowns and restrictions, down two from mid-September, and 43% were more concerned about moving too slowly at the expense of the economy, jobs and mental wellbeing (up four).

• The date for the Groom by-election has been set at November 28.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,416 comments on “Two polls and a by-election date”

Comments Page 19 of 29
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  1. The first is from an interview with Karen Barbey. She’s a long-time friend of Daryl Maguire’s and the partner of Phillip Elliott who was his business partner at G8Way International.

    During an interview with Icac investigators on 9 July last year, she told them she’d met Gladys Berejiklian on a number of occasions, including a dinner at Maguire’s house and a local Wagga Wagga restaurant called Romanos.

  3. Ray Hadley has the classic shock jock pedigree, and is a worthy champion for the ‘Fuck U’ faction of the Liberal Party…

    ‘Deciding at a relatively young age he wanted to pursue a career in sports broadcasting, Ray says he drew strange looks from family and friends whenever he mentioned his ambitions.

    Ray completed his Higher School Certificate in 1972 and tried unsuccessfully to find employment in sports broadcasting. He later found work in another type of broadcasting – he became a trainee Auctioneer and after gaining his Auctioneers license, stayed with that profession for 8 years.

    Still bugged by his desire to enter into the world of sports broadcasting, Ray gave up auctioneering and started driving taxis so he could spend his weekends seeking out casual work as a race broadcaster.

    He started calling the greyhound races at Appin, Bulli and Nowra in 1980 when fate intervened.

    He was driving a taxi one Tuesday evening when he picked up a fare at the front of Radio 2UE. That meeting with 2UE News Director Mark Collier was to change Ray’s life.

    Within a month of that meeting, Ray was working casually at 2UE and took on any job that was thrown to him. He presented traffic reports in Gary O’Callaghan’s top rating breakfast show, was involved with ‘on-air’ promotions for various programs and eventually found himself understudy race caller to Des Hoysted and John Tapp.

    https://www.imdb.com/name/nm1935900/bio

  4. Greensborough Growler @ 5:28 pm

    John Setka’s father was killed that day. Probably explains why he has always been a safety warrior.

    John Setka’s father was not killed in the Westgate Bridge collapse. He rode the collapsing beam to the ground and miraculously survived.

  5. “At the end of the twitter stream is a petition to have Peta banned from the press conferences”

    Not another petition from the left.. Just so sensitive. Maybe the next one could be on banning all criticism of the ALP.

  6. If we go on the ABC process of becoming a professional journalist, most have to do a cadetship AFTER doping their degree in whatever. The degree is a starting point. You do not become a fully qualified journalist until you have completed several years of work practice. Other professions (medicine, dentistry, law, engineering) are similar. By this (traditional) definition, neither Alan Jones nor the Sky after dark panel are journalists. Jones was a failed political candidate before his coaching and media work.

    These characters are not journalists in practice either, if the purpose of journalism is to act as a fourth estate and provide informed and unbiased media coverage. They are presenters of opinion or commentators. I would argue they are manipulators of public opinion, rather than informers of it.

  8. sprocket_

    eventually found himself understudy race caller to Des Hoysted and John Tapp.

    Would be a relly of Jack the Insider, can’t be too many Hoysteds around.

  9. Taylormade says:
    Thursday, October 15, 2020 at 5:55 pm

    She is not a official journalist and has no experience as a journalist.

    If that is your argument, then you gonna lose.

  10. Corio @ #904 Thursday, October 15th, 2020 – 5:54 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ 5:28 pm

    John Setka’s father was killed that day. Probably explains why he has always been a safety warrior.

    John Setka’s father was not killed in the Westgate Bridge collapse. He rode the collapsing beam to the ground and miraculously survived.

    Thanks for that information. I had alternative information.

    Doesn’t change the underlying reason for Setka’s passion.

    Cheers.

  11. Taylormade @ #903 Thursday, October 15th, 2020 – 5:55 pm

    “At the end of the twitter stream is a petition to have Peta banned from the press conferences”

    Not another petition from the left.. Just so sensitive. Maybe the next one could be on banning all criticism of the ALP.

    Well I for one would certainly like to keep watching the famed Abbott warrior get tamed day after day.

  13. Oooops
    .
    Josh Bavas
    (@JoshBavas)
    Just in: ICAC accidentally published the entire transcript from the closed section of the hearing with Daryl Maguire online. ABC News cannot report the contents for legal reasons.

    October 15, 2020

  14. Josh Bavas
    @JoshBavas
    ·
    19m
    Just in: ICAC accidentally published the entire transcript from the closed section of the hearing with Daryl Maguire online. ABC News cannot report the contents for legal reasons.

    Oh dear…

  16. The thing is journalism isn’t brain surgery.
    The path to brain surgery is straight forward and takes 15 years after the HSC – then you get on a public register
    Give someone a typewriter or a microphone and they can call themselves a journalist
    There is a reason for this – brain surgery requires a very specific set of skills, in Australia being a journalist requires talking to people and then putting your, or more likely you boss’ spin on it.

  17. This article is in the context of the Qld election, but is generally relevant. It talks about the declining relevance of “big ticket” building projects to job creation. I have harped on this issue before too.

    “Analysis of employment data by the Australia Institute shows that for every $1m generated, the mining sector creates less than one job. For the same amount, 15 jobs are supported in education and training; 12 in healthcare and social services; 10 in hospitality.”
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/oct/15/not-everyone-wants-to-swing-a-shovel-queensland-election-jobs-plans-miss-the-mark

    These figures presumably include direct an indirect employment, but the general point is the same: spend a lot on shiny big new toys and there is less to spend on human beings. There are examples in every field. For example, in infrastructure, we are being forever told we need to build new freeways to “bust” congestion. Cost: a few billion. Jobs: a few hundred. Evictions: dozens. Yet we might instead bust congestion by tweaking all the traffic signal settings and imposing an congestion charge. Cost: tens of millions: Jobs: about the same. Evictions: Zero.

    Good evening all.

  23. Alan Jones in one of his many defamation cases said to the judge he was not a journalist but an entertainer (therefore he did not have to adhere to any code of ethics)….urgh

  25. Robin Howard
    @beowulf
    ·
    9h
    3 weeks ago Trump held a rally 4 miles from our village. Our county was previously virtually COVID free. Now we have a massive spike. Including a nursing home (an assistant went to the rally) and the local school. Irre-fucking-sponsible.

  26. From the Guardian – I don’t think this right

    “AAP has some more detail on the special leave hearing for the high court tomorrow afternoon challenging Victoria’s lockdown”

    Wouldn’t be special leave as this is not an appeal. I think it is a directions hearing only trying to get an urgent hearing date.

  27. Interesting…

    National Cabinet has been postponed due to a “technical problem” preventing the PM from returning to Sydney (ABC breaking news)

  28. citizen @ #882 Thursday, October 15th, 2020 – 5:16 pm

    This can’t be too helpful to Fecklington’s campaign:

    “Prime Minister Scott Morrison has slammed Queensland’s tough COVID-19 border rules, despite the heightened state of alert in New South Wales.”

    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6969415/prime-minister-slams-qld-border-rules/?cs=9676&utm_source=website&utm_medium=home&utm_campaign=latestnews

    Because this guy ALWAYS has a hidden agenda that he never tells anyone about.

  29. Shellbell @ #924 Thursday, October 15th, 2020 – 6:49 pm

    From the Guardian – I don’t think this right

    “AAP has some more detail on the special leave hearing for the high court tomorrow afternoon challenging Victoria’s lockdown”

    Wouldn’t be special leave as this is not an appeal. I think it is a directions hearing only trying to get an urgent hearing date.

    Sounds to me like they are trying to get an expedited hearing date before their challenge becomes meaningless.

  32. citizen,
    I like this Belco Party policy:

    Chic on the charge for electric cars
    The Belco Party will support the uptake of electric vehicles and fight to bring Formula E racing to Canberra if they manage to snag a seat in the Legislative Assembly on Saturday, candidate and Summernats founder Chic Henry said.

    Formula E is run with electric vehicles and it has the potential to generate hundreds of millions worth of tourism dollars, according to Mr Henry.

    “We need to do everything possible to attract more people to Canberra in this post-COVID world. Formula E has not entered Australia yet, and this is our chance to put Canberra on the global map,” he said.

    The party will also put a charging station at every town and group centre across Canberra, have a 50 per cent discount for electric vehicle registration and a 25 per cent discount for hybrid vehicle registration and put in place one-hour free parking permits for electric vehicles.

  33. How is Cretinlin ‘smart’? She is a Tory Bot propagandist, not a journalist. I have has much right to be in that room asking questions as she does.

  34. Our legal friends may wish to comment on the success likelihood of The Parrot’s case…

    Oct 15, 2020 – 3.25pm
    Broadcaster Alan Jones, no stranger to the nation’s defamation courts, is embroiled in yet another case. This time of his own instigation.

    His “retirement” from the 2GB Mornings slot in May – his show now runs four nights a week on Sky News – prompted dozens of retrospectives across much of the media. But one tribute, by SBS’s youth-focused current affairs program The Feed, defamed him by its portrayal of him as a racist, a misogynist, a liar, and a paedophile. Or so Jones alleges, in a statement of claim filed in Sydney’s Federal Court.

    Alan Jones departed 2GB earlier this year and quickly signed an exclusive deal with Sky News.
    He was allegedly also defamed by the imputation he was someone “who achieved his success as a broadcaster by habitually seeking to intimidate vulnerable people; as someone who in the lead up to the Cronulla riots “had sought to incite racial violence”; as someone who “secretly took money from companies to promote their products on air”; and as a hypocrite, for “although being a broadcaster [having] sued for defamation countless times”; and for “isolat[ing] in his country estate to protect himself from the coronavirus, despite repeatedly publicly seeking to undermine the risks posed by the virus”.

    Jones wants aggravated damages, noting the segment’s “over-sensationalised manner”, failure to seek comment, and continued publication after his lawyers sent a concerns notice on July 31. The suit being filed only late last week, SBS has yet to file a defence.

  37. Mexicanbeemer:

    Thursday, October 15, 2020 at 4:48 pm

    [‘Why do you think it will favor the Dems?’]

    I don’t think there is any real evidence to support it, other than a gut feeling that those forming long queues when asked questions by journos appear to be less gung-ho than Republicans. Overall, I get the strong feeling that a majority of Americans are over the Trump experiment.

  41. Zinger Alert!

    Andrew Lund
    @andrew_lund
    ·
    Oct 14
    Opposition Leader
    @michaelobrienmp
    kicks off Question Time by asking about the rationale behind the 5km travel limit saying most Victorians don’t support it.
    @DanielAndrewsMP
    retorts “most Victorians don’t support the Liberal Party”
    @9NewsMelb
    #springst

  42. After all that sunshine and warm weather north of the Tweed he’s had a Boris Yeltsin ‘technical difficulty’ after a couple of coldies ?

  43. Samantha Maiden
    @samanthamaiden

    I tell you one thing that’s really got me scratching my head.
    @GladysB
    sacked her ex lover in 2018 and forced him out of politics over his deals with Country Gardens. But on the phone taps she discusses Country Gardens with him. And in 2014 she discusses him getting commissions.

  45. Peta Credlin was a part of a play-act that pretended to be a government. It’s not a big change to masquerade as a journalist in yet another anti-Labor campaign.

  47. Tres interesting that Morrison has cancelled national cabinet. Is it because of Gladys B?

    In any event, the sky after dark crowd obviously want Gladys gone.
    Andrew Clennel can hardly believe what he is observing at ICAC

    See new Tweets
    Conversation
    Andrew Clennell
    @aclennell
    Premier and secret lover discussed their ‘future together’ before talks over key deals | Sky News Australia
    Premier and secret lover discussed their ‘future together’ before talks over key deals | Sky News…
    Sky News Political Editor Andrew Clennell has unveiled transcripts of private conversations between Gladys Berejiklian and Daryl Maguire talking about “their future together” right after speaking…
    skynews.com.au

  49. Interesting intersection between protestant evangelicalism and catholicism:

    WASHINGTON — Supreme Court nominee Amy Coney Barrett served as a “handmaid,” the term then used for high-ranking female leaders in the People of Praise religious community, an old directory for the group’s members shows.

    Barrett has thus far refused to discuss her membership in the Christian organization, which opposes abortion and, according to former members, holds that men are divinely ordained as the “head” of both the family and faith, while it is the duty of wives to submit to them.

    Until recently, these female leaders were called “handmaids,” a reference to Jesus’ mother Mary, who according to the Bible called herself “the handmaid of the Lord.” The organization recently changed the terminology to “woman leader” because it had newly negative connotations after Margaret Atwood’s dystopian novel “The Handmaid’s Tale” was turned into a popular television show.

    People of Praise’s belief system is rooted in the Catholic Pentecostal movement, which emphasizes a personal relationship with Jesus and can include baptism in the Holy Spirit. As practiced by People of Praise, that can include praying in tongues to receive divine prophecies, heal the sick and cast out evil spirits, according to documents and former members.

    https://www.chicagotribune.com/nation-world/ct-nw-amy-coney-barrett-people-of-praise-handmaid-20201007-4t2kyl4w4vfo3mdy76t7lidmj4-story.html

  50. So he’s in Cairns, and they can’t do the IT.

    How does a grounded flight prevent him attending via Zoom like most Premiers?
    -Haydn

    A lot of you are asking this.
    Our political reporters have been told it’s because the PM is in Cairns and there is no secure facility in Cairns to enable him to dial into the meeting.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-15/coronavirus-australia-live-news-national-cabinet-scott-morrison/12767638

    * Could he drive to Townsville or somewhere and fly out?
    * How was Palaszczuk going to attend?
    * Could they go ahead without him?
    * Is it a bit sloppy to have our PM somewhere he can’t communicate securely?
    etc.

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