Essential Research leadership ratings and coronavirus polling

As the contours of the Eden-Monaro by-election start to take shape, a new poll finds respondents highly satisfied with antipodean governments’ handling of coronavirus, and mindful of the less happy situation elsewhere in the anglosphere.

The Guardian reports Essential Research’s latest weekly round of coronavirus polling includes the pollster’s monthly leadership ratings, which have Scott Morrison’s approval at 64%, gaining a further five points after his 18-point hike a month ago. Anthony Albanese is down two to 42% — we must await the full report later today to see their disapproval ratings. Morrison holds a 50-25 lead as preferred prime minister, out from 46-27 last time (UPDATE: Full report here; both are at 27% disapproval, which is a four point drop in Morrison’s case and a two point drop in Albanese’s).

The most interesting of the latest tranche of coronavirus questions relate to other countries’ handling of the crisis, with 79% rating New Zealand’s response very good or good, whereas (if I’m reading this correctly) the United States’ response is rated very poor or poor by 71%, and the United Kingdom is similarly rated by 48%. Another question finds 57% support for maintaining Newstart either at its current level “after the current crisis passes” or aligning it with the rate for single pensioners, with only 28% in favour of returning it to its earlier level.

The poll also finds growing appetite for easing restrictions, with 37% now saying it is too soon to do so, down from 49% a fortnight ago, and 36% wanting restrictions eased over the next month or two, but still only 10% wanting them gone as soon as possible. Respondents were also presented with a series of propositions about school closures, which found 45% sayig schools should reopen, “half” saying schools should teach students remotely until the outbreak passes, and 41% saying they would keep their children at home even if schools reopened.

The latest news on the by-election front is that NSW Nationals leader John Barilaro has announced he will not run in Eden-Monaro, and Senator Jim Molan has likewise withdrawn his intention to pursue Liberal preselection, with both allowing a clear run for Andrew Constance, NSW Transport Minister and member for the seat of Bega, most of which is within Eden-Monaro. The by-election now looms as a straightforward contest between Labor and Liberal, with the Nationals sure to be only a minor presence in Barilaro’s absence, if indeed they run at all.

Constance was the subject of sympathetic media attention after nearly losing his Malua Bay house in the summer bushfires, a particularly helpful asset given the federal goverment’s handling of the fires loomed as its main liability in the campaign. He revealed in March that he would be quitting politics when the bushfire recovery was complete, albeit without making clear when that might be. The by-election that will now be required in Bega will thus be less disruptive than one in Barilaro’s seat of Monaro would have been, and the seat is also at less risk of being lost by the government. No indication so far as I can see as to who might be in the running in Bega.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,512 comments on “Essential Research leadership ratings and coronavirus polling”

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  1. Getting the economy going again is all about risk management. Different people have different risk appetites. The stakes are high, on one side billions of dollars, on the other, deaths, another lock down (billions of dollar) and the Liberal party being out of power for decades – they lined themselves up for that, all so they could have a culture war dig at Andrews. In my view the Liberals and all that sail in that ship ( the Greens it would seem) are not long term planners, there is still a serious risk of a serious mess.

  2. “The Victorian government does face a bit of a conundrum in terms of changing its course now in circumstances where it is the only jurisdiction in which active cases are going up.”

    Was. The cluster is running out. In a few days we’ll see what the underlying rate is.

  3. Greensborough Growler @ #3143 Saturday, May 9th, 2020 – 1:22 pm

    Player One @ #3136 Saturday, May 9th, 2020 – 1:10 pm

    Firefox @ #3095 Saturday, May 9th, 2020 – 12:39 pm

    “No one takes you seriously.”

    ***

    I take Peg far more seriously than I take you, GG, so you’re wrong.

    #MeToo! 🙂

    So, you take her comments about Mother’s Day seriously.

    OK. Only there is another P1 impersonating you on the blog.

    Taking a poster seriously doesn’t imply you agree with everything they post.

    I realize this is a difficult concept for you.

  4. Player One @ #3154 Saturday, May 9th, 2020 – 1:32 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #3143 Saturday, May 9th, 2020 – 1:22 pm

    Player One @ #3136 Saturday, May 9th, 2020 – 1:10 pm

    Firefox @ #3095 Saturday, May 9th, 2020 – 12:39 pm

    “No one takes you seriously.”

    ***

    I take Peg far more seriously than I take you, GG, so you’re wrong.

    #MeToo! 🙂

    So, you take her comments about Mother’s Day seriously.

    OK. Only there is another P1 impersonating you on the blog.

    Taking a poster seriously doesn’t imply you agree with everything they post.

    I realize this is a difficult concept for you.

    Around, around in circles you go.

  5. FredNK

    Pegasus is not a Green spokesperson.

    Whatever Pegasus posts are a Pegasus views unless the cut and paste has an actual quote from the Greens in it.

    Remembering this is how you avoid a blinkered view of political parties.

    FWIW I agree with Andrews position. I saw Pegasus asking a genuine question. Maybe opening up room for attacks on how stupid some LNP MP’s are being. Maybe not.

    That’s what discussion is.

  6. Now here’s a useful response to C19… maybe the Morrison government is watching?

    “Britain’s biggest telecoms group BT suspended its dividend and said it would spend billions more on faster fibre broadband connections, as it prepares to meet the challenge posed by the merger of two of its biggest rivals.

    Shares in the former monopoly fell as much as 12 percent to an 11-year low of 101.1 pence (A$1.92) on Thursday, as investors reacted to losing their payout and the potential rise in competition.

    BT said the saving from suspending its dividend until 2021/22 would see it through the expected financial crash caused by the coronavirus pandemic, which is leading to lower revenue from sports customers, reduced business activity and more cautious spending from multinational customers.

    It will also help fund a 12 billion pound (A$22.8 billion) plan to upgrade its legacy copper network to full fibre.

    If the conditions are right, BT said it could reach 20 million premises by the mid to late 2020s, 5 million more than it had targeted.

    https://www.itnews.com.au/news/bt-unveils-22bn-plan-to-upgrade-copper-network-to-full-fibre-547900?utm_source=mobile&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=share

  7. alfred venison @ #3149 Saturday, May 9th, 2020 – 1:28 pm

    says:
    Saturday, May 9, 2020 at 12:40 pm
    Firefox says:
    Saturday, May 9, 2020 at 12:39 pm

    “No one takes you seriously.”

    ***

    I take Peg far more seriously than I take you, GG, so you’re wrong.
    ____________
    Me 2. Pegasus is a serious contributor. GG is a warm up act and Hype man for BB.

    me three (3)! fwiw. -a.v.

    Ah, the Po’ Pegasus fan club. Saint Peg can do no wrong, apparently. Entirely predictable. Entirely irrelevant.

  8. OC

    Ted Mack as mayor also removed all the rubbish bins in North Sydney CBD, on the theory that providing bins attracted rubbish.

    People should be encouraged to take their rubbish home.

    Was very messy until some were grudgingly restored

  9. sprocket

    Nah the politicians wedged themselves.

    The popular option as polling has shown is an elected head of state.
    Arguing the evil of trusting voters was the best wedge of the Monarchists.

  10. Now this is some scientific research I hope is not crackpot….

    ‘The search for a vaccine for the new coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, or indeed a medicinal drug to cure it, has taken researchers down both traditional and less traditional avenues.

    They have looked at existing drug candidates, such as remdesivir, which was original developed to treat Ebola. In Germany, the first clinical trials for a coronavirus vaccine are based on a candidate developed for cancer immunology.

    There’s a study out of France that suggests nicotine — typically ingested via the often-lethal pastime of smoking — may protect people against the novel coronavirus, itself a potentially fatal lung infection.

    And, now, research is emerging out of Canada that certain strains of the psychoactive drug cannabis may also increase resistance to the coronavirus. In fact, if the study can be verified, it would appear that cannabis works in a similar way to nicotine.

    “The results on COVID-19 came from our studies on arthritis, Crohn’s disease, cancer and others,” says Dr. Igor Kovalchuck, a professor of Biological Sciences at the University of Lethbridge, in an email to DW.

    https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-the-tide-is-coming-for-medicinal-cannabis/a-53371342

  11. After Trump’s valet, and Pence’s press secretary test positive, we now have this (unverified) rumour

    ‘There are at least 60 members of the secret service who are self-quarantining right now. Obviously, not all secret service members work at the WH, but 1600 Pennsylvania is quickly becoming a COVID hotspot./

  12. Cleary and Mack were a tag team for an elected president
    I WILL NOT support the popular election of a president with the potentially dictatorial powers of the Governor General
    I WILL support the popular election of a president with defined and limited powers e.g. similar to the Irish president including and most importantly that the appointed Prime Minister must have the explicit confidence of the lower house.

  13. Vic:

    The Michigan Governor is spot on: the partisanship around coronavirus response is going to prolong the effort to combat it.

  14. Remdesivir wasn’t developed for Ebola. It was tested for Ebola and didn’t work well.
    It was actually developed as a drug for Hep C and its now being marketed as a HIV prophylaxis because Gilead’s patent on tenofivir expired.

    https://theconversation.com/remdesivir-explained-what-makes-this-drug-work-against-viruses-137751

    It’s a “spanner in the works” attack. Deliberately interfering with viral replication by providing malformed nucleosides. Incidentally tenofivir is also being trialled against covid19 but it hasn’t had the funding because, you guessed it, its not in patent.

  15. AV ‘lethbridge’ funny how a word pops up again after you first come across it. The first time I came across it was two days ago when I was reading ‘The Last Bushrangers’. This was about two Kenniff brothers charged with killing a copper and a station master in Lethbridge’s Pocket in the Carnarvon ranges QLD. Interestingly, they were related to the author, Mike Munro of 60 minutes fame, who should have been called Mike Kenniff except his grandfather changed his name to Munro to distance himself from the Bushrangers.

  16. Fess

    Indeed. The virus does not care who is in power and what side of politics one is on. It does not discriminate.

  17. Ryan Struyk‏Verified account @ryanstruyk

    Reported US coronavirus cases:

    Mar. 8: 558 cases
    Apr. 8: 432,132 cases
    Right now : 1,322,144 cases

    US coronavirus deaths:

    10 wks ago: 0 deaths
    1 wk ago: 64,943 deaths
    Right now: 78,616 deaths

  18. Victoria @ #3179 Saturday, May 9th, 2020 – 2:13 pm

    Fess

    Indeed. The virus does not care who is in power and what side of politics one is on. It does not discriminate.

    I also find it tres amusement how General Bone Spurs is inciting Americans to become ‘Warriors’ against the Corononavirus enemy. I always thought generals led from the front. Apparently not if they’re Armchair Generals quaking in their boots and not wanting to actually get amongst it themselves.

  19. OC

    Too much executive power without checks is bad for democracy.

    Just look at all the trouble the US style has got into around the world.
    I would start with the French system and work on improvements from there.

  20. How unsurprisement

    Media
    Likes
    Tea Pain’s Tweets
    Tea Pain
    @TeaPainUSA
    ·
    19m
    If gettin’ infected is your idea of patriotism, then knock yourself out. But the moment you give it someone else, you’re guilty of assault.

    These folks belong in a 5’ x 8’ government-funded quarantine.
    72 got COVID-19 after attending protest against governor’s stay-at-home order
    More than 70 people who tested positive for the coronavirus since an April 24 rally at the Wisconsin state Capitol indicated they had attended a large gathering, but the state Department of Health…
    channel3000.com

  21. Dio:

    I expect we will see more of the same kind of accusations against Biden, simply because the Trump campaign will be eager to use a) anything they can to trash Biden in the eyes of voters and b) any kind of deflection from the very credible and multiple complaints of sexual assault against Trump.

  22. Well, I know what I think but what can be done.
    Here in Qld the shopping centres are packed beyond normal & not many are exercising caution & social distancing.
    Lifts were limited to one or one family. The escalators however were brimming with hoards of shoppers, tail to tail.

  23. The thing That gets me about the Green-Labor wars here Is that the Labor supporters really expect Green voters to associate themselves with the NSW Right.
    As Neville Wran was fond of saying “if you lie down with dogs, you get up with fleas”

  24. Ryan Struyk@ryanstruyk
    ·
    58m
    US coronavirus deaths:

    10 wks ago: 0 deaths
    9 wks ago: 17 deaths
    8 wks ago: 49 deaths
    7 wks ago: 249 deaths
    6 wks ago: 1,588 deaths
    5 wks ago: 7,152 deaths
    4 wks ago: 18,758 deaths
    3 wks ago: 37,054 deaths
    2 wks ago: 51,017 deaths
    1 wk ago: 64,943 deaths
    Right now: 77,179 deaths

  25. Oakeshott Country @ #3192 Saturday, May 9th, 2020 – 2:29 pm

    The thing That gets me about the Green-Labor wars here Is that the Labor supporters really expect Green voters to associate themselves with the NSW Right.
    As Neville Wran was fond of saying “if you lie down with dogs, you get up with fleas”

    This is not a NSW blog, comrade.

    When Greens fuckwits want to traduce a real Labor winner like Andrews you know they are they are both the fleas and the dogs of that conversation.

  26. I have no problem with an elected president with well defined reserve powers. Our system has worked well with that one example where the G-G arguably exceeded those reserve powers.

  27. OC:

    I have no expectations that the Greens will associate themselves with anything Labor, Left, Right or otherwise. They’ve repeatedly demonstrated over the years they are quite happy being associated with everything anti-Labor, even if that means associating with Liberals and Nationals.

  28. Reports coming from various places, not sure where.

    Linda Mottram
    @LindaMottram
    ·
    3h
    Umm .. quick venture out for groceries .. social distancing has evaporated.

  29. D

    Here in Qld the shopping centres are packed beyond normal & not many are exercising caution & social distancing.
    Lifts were limited to one or one family. The escalators however were brimming with hoards of shoppers, tail to tail.

    As I just found out too at a local shopping centre here in Burwood East, Melbourne.

    The road traffic for a Saturday is the same as pre-pandemic days.

  30. frednk @ #1559 Saturday, May 9th, 2020 – 9:20 am


    Nicholas says:
    Saturday, May 9, 2020 at 9:12 am
    Remember Clinton was running a pedophile ring from a pizza joint.
    The difference is that this allegation from Tara Reade is very credible.

    Nicholas still campaigning for trump.
    The story is ; if you bother to read it; he walked up to her, stuck his hand up her dress and “fingered her”. Nicholas, it is offensive and it completely discredits sanders and his supporter. Trump supporters not so much; they are happy being in the gutter.

    The truly magic thing is that the ‘fingering’ would have to have been accomplished through pantyhose, which was absolutely ubiquitous amongst ‘properly dressed’ female persons at the time. Any person of an age group that has encountered pantyhose will know what to think of that. Credible? More like credulous.

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