Essential Research leadership ratings and coronavirus polling

As the contours of the Eden-Monaro by-election start to take shape, a new poll finds respondents highly satisfied with antipodean governments’ handling of coronavirus, and mindful of the less happy situation elsewhere in the anglosphere.

The Guardian reports Essential Research’s latest weekly round of coronavirus polling includes the pollster’s monthly leadership ratings, which have Scott Morrison’s approval at 64%, gaining a further five points after his 18-point hike a month ago. Anthony Albanese is down two to 42% — we must await the full report later today to see their disapproval ratings. Morrison holds a 50-25 lead as preferred prime minister, out from 46-27 last time (UPDATE: Full report here; both are at 27% disapproval, which is a four point drop in Morrison’s case and a two point drop in Albanese’s).

The most interesting of the latest tranche of coronavirus questions relate to other countries’ handling of the crisis, with 79% rating New Zealand’s response very good or good, whereas (if I’m reading this correctly) the United States’ response is rated very poor or poor by 71%, and the United Kingdom is similarly rated by 48%. Another question finds 57% support for maintaining Newstart either at its current level “after the current crisis passes” or aligning it with the rate for single pensioners, with only 28% in favour of returning it to its earlier level.

The poll also finds growing appetite for easing restrictions, with 37% now saying it is too soon to do so, down from 49% a fortnight ago, and 36% wanting restrictions eased over the next month or two, but still only 10% wanting them gone as soon as possible. Respondents were also presented with a series of propositions about school closures, which found 45% sayig schools should reopen, “half” saying schools should teach students remotely until the outbreak passes, and 41% saying they would keep their children at home even if schools reopened.

The latest news on the by-election front is that NSW Nationals leader John Barilaro has announced he will not run in Eden-Monaro, and Senator Jim Molan has likewise withdrawn his intention to pursue Liberal preselection, with both allowing a clear run for Andrew Constance, NSW Transport Minister and member for the seat of Bega, most of which is within Eden-Monaro. The by-election now looms as a straightforward contest between Labor and Liberal, with the Nationals sure to be only a minor presence in Barilaro’s absence, if indeed they run at all.

Constance was the subject of sympathetic media attention after nearly losing his Malua Bay house in the summer bushfires, a particularly helpful asset given the federal goverment’s handling of the fires loomed as its main liability in the campaign. He revealed in March that he would be quitting politics when the bushfire recovery was complete, albeit without making clear when that might be. The by-election that will now be required in Bega will thus be less disruptive than one in Barilaro’s seat of Monaro would have been, and the seat is also at less risk of being lost by the government. No indication so far as I can see as to who might be in the running in Bega.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,512 comments on “Essential Research leadership ratings and coronavirus polling”

Comments Page 65 of 71
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  1. Trying to be objective, I think the Morrison strategy (and some states) of promising relaxation of restrictions “soon” has served to water down the fear of catching anything.

  2. Oakeshott Country @ #3191 Saturday, May 9th, 2020 – 2:29 pm

    The thing That gets me about the Green-Labor wars here Is that the Labor supporters really expect Green voters to associate themselves with the NSW Right.
    As Neville Wran was fond of saying “if you lie down with dogs, you get up with fleas”

    You really are a grub.

  4. “The thing That gets me about the Green-Labor wars here Is that the Labor supporters really expect Green voters to associate themselves with the NSW Right.
    As Neville Wran was fond of saying “if you lie down with dogs, you get up with fleas””

    ***

    Exactly.

    The Dem primaries really highlighted how wide the gulf between the supporters of the Labor Right and Left factions has grown.

  5. Pegasus @ #3200 Saturday, May 9th, 2020 – 2:42 pm

    What’s the bet families in Victoria believe they can visit their mothers tomorrow. Will they be fined if they do so? I bet they wont.

    Is this a political comment or a punt that the pandemic is over.

    Both Andrews and Gladys have not removed restrictions at this time.

    If there is a breakout now because people are assuming it is all OK, then there is only one person that resposibility will be sheeted home to.

  6. That’s a good point about antyhose. Though I would add a codicil that, depending on whether it was summer or not would determine whether pantyhose were being worn.

  7. lizzie:

    I noticed the same when I was out this morning. The Farmer’s Market valiantly kept the hand sanitiser at the entrance, but most people just walked past it. No social distancing at stalls, unlike previous weeks which have been quite good.

    Supermarket was the busiest I’ve seen it in months. No sign of customer numbers being limited, despite signage at the entrancing saying so.

  9. Has much changed in NSW Labor since 2011 when this article was written?
    ——
    State of NSW: Labor reaps what it sows after attacking the working class
    https://theconversation.com/state-of-nsw-labor-reaps-what-it-sows-after-attacking-the-working-class-329
    ———

    Chris Haviland, a former Federal MP. He is a 40-year member of the ALP

    Lavarch review: It’s time to fix NSW Labor

    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/lavarch-review-its-time-to-fix-nsw-labor,13308

    “However, this review must examine more than just specific incidents in the past few years. The fact that incidents of this nature continue to occur within the party in NSW point to not only systemic administrative failures but an ongoing structural and cultural problem in the NSW branch.

    It will be claimed by some that recent problems are a “one-off” caused by a “few bad apples”. This neither identifies nor addresses the real problem.

    It has been 65 years since the current regime that controls NSW Labor has been in place. The absolute control of the dominant Right faction over 65 years has led to a succession of scandals and a total lack of accountability, transparency and integrity.”

  13. porotisays:
    Saturday, May 9, 2020 at 2:52 pm
    The war is over, we won. Federal government has declared it so. It’s been in all the papers.

    then we’re going to lose the peace.
    as j. danforth quale said, from what seems like another era: “if we don’t succeed, we run the risk of failure”. -a.v.

  14. Now that things have settled down on PB, on a lovely Saturday afternoon, here’s an item to brighten things.

    And, given the concern expressed on PB in recent hours, this could be dedicated to Kayjay, who like me, probably can remember the joy of that day 75 years ago:

    Watch as those wonderful Poms sing along, led by 103-year-old Dame Vera herself when she quite a bit younger.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SKSc8BLXAJ8

  16. Oakeshott Country
    says:
    Saturday, May 9, 2020 at 2:29 pm
    The thing That gets me about the Green-Labor wars here Is that the Labor supporters really expect Green voters to associate themselves with the NSW Right.
    As Neville Wran was fond of saying “if you lie down with dogs, you get up with fleas”
    _____________________
    It’s more than the NSW Right. It’s the abomination of the SDA and the way Shorten used to run the AWU. Can you imagine Greens voters supporting Kimberley Kitching and her ‘Judeo-Christian traditions’ and sermons about the wisdom of the working class.

  17. Katharine Murphy

    Covid-19 competence has given Australian governments some political capital. But there’s a flipside

    Politicians have set a high bar for themselves – success on coronavirus has created community expectations that will be challenging to shift

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/may/09/covid-19-competence-has-given-australian-governments-some-political-capital-but-theres-a-flipside?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    “We are not moving now because Morrison has always been an undeclared herd immunity disciple, restrained by saintly premiers. That is a caricature of the deliberative dynamic inside the national cabinet. Balancing the various trade-offs is more complicated, and Morrison is right to be concerned both about the health effects and the economic impacts. A pandemic of unemployment could be as devastating as a coronavirus pandemic. That’s not spin. That’s reality. That’s what previous recessions have taught us.

    But we do need to be clear that moving to phase two contains plenty of risk, both practical and political. Right now, in the states that are moving to ease restrictions, the war gaming is about how to switch the messaging.
    :::
    t’s a can of worms, that argument. It’s a can of worms, because it leads you to a place where the trade-offs become explicit. More normalcy has a price. The price is more infections, and more lives lost. It’s not quite an unavoidable fact, because the future is yet to reveal itself, but it is an unavoidable likelihood of plotting a path back from lockdowns.

    I said a moment ago the competent management of the outbreak has given governments some political capital to take risks. I believe that’s right. But there’s a flipside of competence, and it’s this.
    :::
    Parliament resumes next week. Anthony Albanese on Monday will set out his views on what a post-Covid Australia looks like, and the problems of old haven’t gone away”

  18. “Trying to be objective, I think the Morrison strategy (and some states) of promising relaxation of restrictions “soon” has served to water down the fear of catching anything.”

    lizzie

    That’s precisely something I’ve been saying for weeks. What matters is actual behaviour and Scomo has been trying to sell the lie that we are all safe.

  20. Oakeshott Country @ #3211 Saturday, May 9th, 2020 – 2:54 pm

    Don’t worry Peg; Karla is going to fix the party

    Yep, you’re a seemingly senile old fool who can’t even spell ‘Kaila’. Unless you are referring to a ‘Karla’ that has magically appeared to save the day that I haven’t seen or heard about before.

    However, finding common cause with Old Green Vinegar Tits, Pegasus, that’s what I’d be most embarrassed about if I were you. 🙂

  24. Despite crowds making it difficult to social distance, I can imagine that there would be fewer people out and about with flu like symptons, and more with cleaner hands and better cough etiquette, and less close contact over a sustained period of time with strangers.

  27. Cud Chewer @ #3177 Saturday, May 9th, 2020 – 2:09 pm

    Remdesivir wasn’t developed for Ebola. It was tested for Ebola and didn’t work well.
    It was actually developed as a drug for Hep C and its now being marketed as a HIV prophylaxis because Gilead’s patent on tenofivir expired.

    https://theconversation.com/remdesivir-explained-what-makes-this-drug-work-against-viruses-137751

    It’s a “spanner in the works” attack. Deliberately interfering with viral replication by providing malformed nucleosides. Incidentally tenofivir is also being trialled against covid19 but it hasn’t had the funding because, you guessed it, its not in patent.

    You have to stop making this stuff up and posting it on a public forum.

    1. Let’s start with and I quote:

    It was actually developed as a drug for Hep C

    It was nothing of the sort. Your own reference clearly defines its background. It was *discovered* in the search for an anti Hep C, was *not chosen* for use against Hep C, but was tested against other viruses.

    Remdesivir originally was found during a drug discovery program at Gilead to search for inhibitors of the hepatitis C virus, which is another RNA virus. Although Gilead ultimately selected a different nucleoside analogue for treatment of hepatitis the company tested the drug to see if it was effective against other RNA viruses. Remdesivir exhibited potent activity against Ebola and Middle Eastern respiratory virus, among others.

    2. Then there’s this:

    its now being marketed as a HIV prophylaxis

    I’m at a loss to understand how a drug that has not been approved for anything except emergency use for Covid-19 and which has to be given intravenously is being marketed as a prophylaxis for HIV. Think about that –

    * it is not approved for anything other than emergency COVID-19
    *but it is being marketed for HIV
    *as a prophylactic – which means given in advance of exposure to prevent infection

    – and explain how someone who is about to be at risk of getting HIV (let’s say unprotected anal sex) can access and receive an unapproved intravenous drug in the right dose at the right time. The plasma half life of IV Remdesivir is about 20 minutes – so you better be quick with the naughty business once you get that drip running.

    I (stupidly probably) feel some obligation to correct this sort of post, but frankly don’t have the time. I’m out of here for the foreseeable future, and warn readers to be mindful that inexpert opinion should be treated as same.

  28. nath

    The SDA warms the cockles of Gerard Henderson’s heart. He believesthe DLP lives on, still influencing how we are run. Be it through the influence of the SDA within Labor governments or the likes of Abbott and Andrews in the Libs.

  30. NE Qld the virus can be breathed in. It only takes a small amount of lack of social distancing for R(eff) to creep above 1.0

    Then more complacency, more contact – in an environment with just the odd carrier.
    Then it happens. The virus spreads quickly through a shopping center. In a weeks time when you’ve got a dozen cases, there’s actually 100 cases yet to show up. Can we really clean up a cluster of hundreds of cases with testing/tracing in an environment where R(eff) is closer to 2?

    That’s the danger. Gradually easing restrictions and not realising that the lack of extra cases is due to dumb luck. And easing them to the point where when the inevitable does happen we either lose control (and go back into lockdown) or we have to take drastic measures like isolate entire suburbs.

  32. The problem with Kaila (sorry with mis-spelling) was that she joined the inner party of the NSW right at an early age and lost whatever moral compass she ever had.
    She honestly did not see the problem with a tycoon bringing an Aldi bag full of used notes into the party headquarters

  33. I would be disappointed if the 1 person per 4 square metre rule indoors was being flouted This weekend. At the shops yesterday there was still a line to get into Woolies.

  34. Well there we have another erudite poster driven off by relentless self-opionated supposition presented as immutable fact By someone “who has done their own research” (in the Pauline Hanson sense)

  35. Itza

    You are obsessed with point scoring. And I see also that you still think covid19 can’t be aerosolised so you’re not scoring points with me.

    https://www.gilead.com/news-and-press/press-room/press-releases/2019/7/gilead-presents-new-findings-on-profile-of-descovy-for-potential-use-as-hiv-pre-exposure-prophylaxis-compared-with-truvada

    Gillead is actually pushing Remdesivir as a replacement for Truvada.

    https://www.washingtonblade.com/2020/03/24/prep-may-be-tested-against-coronavirus-if-hiv-meds-shown-to-work/

    As far as whether it first came to attention as a potential drug for Hep C. That depends on who you talk to. Its not as black and white as you think.

  36. So, what is the NSW government going to do to get people to continue observing social distancing?

    Never fear, Scotty from marketing is all over it.

  38. Loving all the people complaining about how many people are at shopping centres today….based on their personal observation.

  41. “Loving all the people complaining about how many people are at shopping centres today….based on their personal observation.”

    I’m not about to go near my shopping center to find out, but yes this is anecdotal. So, how do we find out?

  42. Cc
    I understand that your condition prevents you from understanding social signalling but try to be less of a prig. Perhaps adding the odd “in my opinion” to your posts would help

  45. Blobbit @ #3237 Saturday, May 9th, 2020 – 3:25 pm

    Loving all the people complaining about how many people are at shopping centres today….based on their personal observation.

    My wife has just come back from the Supermarket and it is apparently VE Day 75 years hence.

    Scotty has declared victory over the Virus and now we wait for how his gamble plays out.

  46. And if you want an anecdote. Rang my lawyer 2 days ago. At the office they are still strictly enforcing social distancing and she said “step out onto the street and you’d think no one had ever heard of covid”. This is the main street of Raymond Terrace btw.

  47. Oakeshott Country @ #3230 Saturday, May 9th, 2020 – 3:16 pm

    The problem with Kaila (sorry with mis-spelling) was that she joined the inner party of the NSW right at an early age and lost whatever moral compass she ever had.
    She honestly did not see the problem with a tycoon bringing an Aldi bag full of used notes into the party headquarters

    And she has been hounded out of the party as a result. You do know we have a new General Secretary don’t you? His name is Bob.

  49. “A factual observation offered as an anecdote is not complaining.”

    So, people aren’t concerned about it? It’s pretty clear that the people offering that “observation” think it’s a bad thing.

    As an example. The last para below refers to our being “quite good” in previous weeks. Hence this week it’s bad.

    Confessionssays:
    Saturday, May 9, 2020 at 2:48 pm
    lizzie:

    I noticed the same when I was out this morning. The Farmer’s Market valiantly kept the hand sanitiser at the entrance, but most people just walked past it. No social distancing at stalls, unlike previous weeks which have been quite good.

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