Bega Valley Shire mayor Kristy McBain has been anointed by Anthony Albanese as Labor’s candidate for the Eden-Monaro by-election, despite the fact that a designated nominations period had yet to expire. The Nationals have justified their optimism by providing The Australian ($) with an internal poll conducted immediately after Mike Kelly’s retirement announcement on Thursday, the paper’s report of which begins thus: “NSW Deputy Premier John Barilaro would win the Eden-Monaro by-election if he chooses to stand” (UPDATE: See account of weekend developments at the bottom of the post). This fact turns out to have been established by a 52-48 lead over Kristy McBain, and primary votes that have Barilaro leading hypothetical Liberal candidate Jim Molan by 30% to 21%, with McBain on 35% and Greens candidate Patrick McGinlay on 8%.
However, a report by David Crowe of the Age/Herald ($) suggests state Transport Minister and Bega MP Andrew Constance has been responsive to colleagues’ suggestions he should seek Liberal preselection, and Barilaro has said he will not run if Constance does. Furthermore, “some state sources said there was still a chance both men would pull back from the contest”. In that case, it would seem Fiona Kotvojs, who ran at the election last year, would get another run for the Liberals, and the Nationals would presumably go back to being uncompetitive. Candidacies of either or both of Barilaro and Constance respectively raise the prospect of state by-elections for the seats of Monaro (Nationals margin 11.6%) and Bega (Liberal margin 6.9%), neither of which are unloseable by the recent historic standards of by-elections.
In other news, Roy Morgan has conducted its occasional exercise of publishing the latest results of its federal voting polling, which these days it keeps to itself except when it believes it has identified a newsworthy angle to the results. Onthis occasion its a forceful swing to the Coalition that was missed by Newspoll, such that it now leads 51.5-48.5 after trailing 53-47 in polling from mid-March (compared with 51-49 from the Newspoll of the time). On the primary vote, the Coalition was up seven to 43.5%, Labor down three to 33%, the Greens up half to 11.5% and One Nation down one to 3%. Among the unanswered questions are what impact an apparent chopping and changing of survey methods may have had, with this latest result said to combine phone and online polling for a sample of 2806 over the two weekends just past. Many others besides have been canvassed by Kevin Bonham.
Then there’s the latest effort from Dynata for the Institute of Public Affairs, this time concerning coronavirus restrictions, which I’m not going to say anything about except that it’s out there. Among the questions respondents were invited to agree or disagree with was the following: “There should be an immediate easing of petty restrictions with appropriate social distancing in place”. If I were completing such a survey, my reaction to this question would be to recognise that I was being manipulated and refuse to complete it, and I suspect I’m not alone.
UPDATE (4/5/20): Conflicting signals on the John Barilaro front this morning, courtesy of apparently separate sources both said to be close to him. The Sydney Morning Herald ($) reported overnight that Barilaro would formally announce his intention not to run this morning, but The Australian ($) has been told that this is wrong and that Barilaro is still considering his position. The Herald reports claims from Liberals that Crosby Textor internal polling shows Andrew Constance would win the seat in canter, and that the state Liberals consider Constance’s seat of Bega to be easier to defend at a by-election than Barilaro’s seat of Monaro, which might fall to Shooters Fishers and Farmers or such like. Barilaro and Constance are apparently both on the record saying they will drop out if the other runs rather than expose the state government to two by-elections, which merely raises the question of which claim takes precedence.
I see the Potus did a town hall type event last night (today).
poroti
He has been pretty quiet about Covid being a harbinger of the End of Days.
I read that a group of Covidiots is called a covfefe!
Ok thanks Cud and Hillbilly. Might set the alarm rather than stay up.
Oh dear, BB, what a wild rant..
“Remarks like that are so stupid, they defy logic.”
Er, what kind of logic are you looking for. What I said is mathematically correct. At the current rate of takeup, the app could find up to 3.2 percent of contacts. I did not say that the rate of takeup won’t climb. However, what rate of takeup do you honestly think it will get? 30%? 40%? At 40%, the app will record up to 16 percent of contacts.
Once again, BB, the app is over hyped. I’ve not denied that hypothetically it might be useful in a few cases. But its been sold as something that “will make us all safe”. And you, sir, are a marketing victim of none other than SfM. Congrats.
The rest of your rant is largely irrelevant, except to say that privacy concerns are the least of my issues with the app.
Look, I can relate to your true concerns. You’re afraid of what this monster can do. So am I. But the app isn’t going to make you safe. It never will.
If, in the quite possible scenario that the virus takes a hold again (and it still has a firm grip in Sydney) then the thing that will save your sorry ass is conventional contact tracing. The app will only ever help these contact tracers in a small fraction of cases. If you want the contact tracers to be far more effective, why, BB, are you not screaming for them to be resourced so that they do things Korea style? Have the resources to go through thousands of hours of CCTV footage (very handy, precisely in the situations that matter, like pubs, shops, malls and trains). Like going through your bank records finding out where you’ve been. Like using the data that already exists on the network carriers computer, tracing your location, to build a far more accurate picture of who else you could have bumped into. These things are far more powerful than an app and are demonstrated as such.
So, if you’re worried, why aren’t you advocating this kind of stuff, that actually works.
You’ve been conned. And that’s sad because I can see your fear. And you do have reason to fear. Because if we lift the restrictions in the next couple of weeks, there will be dozens of clusters two weeks later and all I can say is you’d better bloody hope you have a ticket to New Zealand because the app simply won’t make you safe under those circumstances. It just simply cannot. You’ve been misled, lied to, hoodwinked, bamboozled. Sorry, but that’s the truth.
Rakali
*slap*
Greensborough Growler @ #1193 Monday, May 4th, 2020 – 6:56 pm
Maybe they don’t. But, at the moment, they can’t.
“The US President insists on hydroxychloroquine as a sure fire cure for Cordid19 whereas in Australia the Prime Minister has CORVDSafe As his sure fire cure.
Irresponsible Snake oil salesmen the both of them.”
Rakali – well at least the app won’t potentially kill you. If you’re going to sell snake oil, at least try not to get sued 🙂
If the aim is to show the advantage of going for zero I have no problem with NZ joining in.
It doesn’t jell well with the nonsense we have seem federally over schools.
Perhaps Morrison has worked out, death is not a vote winner.
Confessions @ #1226 Monday, May 4th, 2020 – 8:10 pm
Me either. It’s about time they brought in the experts!
poroti
Nuts and snake oil.. sounds like the beginning of a recipe..
frednk
“If the aim is to show the advantage of going for zero I have no problem with NZ joining in.”
Me neither. I just smell something suspicious at how well rehearsed the line “elimination may be a side effect” is.. Its come from a number of people.
Cud Chewer says:
Monday, May 4, 2020 at 9:51 pm
…
Me neither. I just smell something suspicious at how well rehearsed the line “elimination may be a side effect” is.. Its come from a number of people.
I think you have to wait and see. The Death squad just tried a full frontal with Tehan (boy has he been hung out to dry), it did not go well.
Perhaps they have had a light bulb moment. No votes in Death.
”No votes in Death.”
Maybe it depends upon who’s dying.
Cud Chewer
How do you get three percent.
I can see an argument that the chances of getting all your contacts is vanishingly low. A good diary would be better.
I think I can see it, your looking at he chance that the guy you came into contact with two weeks ago had a list and had you in their list. In the end that is why your carrying this thing around on your phone, to get into other peoples list.
Love to see your workings.
George Monbiot
Bail Out the Planet
https://www.monbiot.com/2020/05/01/bail-out-the-planet/
“This is our second great chance to do things differently. It could be our last. The first, in 2008, was spectacularly squandered. Vast amounts of public money were spent reassembling the filthy old economy, while ensuring that wealth remained in the hands of the rich. Today, many governments appear determined to repeat their catastrophic mistake.
:::
In other words, let’s have what many people were calling for long before this disaster hit: a green new deal. But please let’s stop describing it as a stimulus package. We have stimulated consumption too much over the past century, which is why we face environmental disaster. Let us call it a survival package, whose purpose is to provide incomes, distribute wealth and avoid catastrophe, without stoking perpetual economic growth. Bail out the people, not the corporations. Bail out the living world, not its destroyers. Let’s not waste our second chance.”
Yep, Scotty from Marketing, just send the kids back to school:
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/nsw-health-investigating-possible-multiple-infection-sources-at-newmarch-house-20200504-p54pne.html
Two thirds of Britons believe Climate Change as serious as Coronavirus and majority want Climate prioritised in economic recovery
https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/two-thirds-britons-believe-climate-change-serious-coronavirus-and-majority-want-climate-prioritised
“Recent polling by Ipsos conducted across 14 countries globally shows that 66% of Britons believe that in the long-term Climate Change is as serious a crisis as COVID-19, this compares to 71% on average across those 14 countries.
Respondents from China were the most likely to believe that in the long-term Climate Change is as serious a crisis as COVID-19 at 87%, while respondents from the USA and Australia are the least likely, but still well over half at 59% agreeing.”
Pegasus
Coal and oil are finished, the world is not going to have a population of 11 billion people and the Greens, in their own way are going to continue to campaign for right wing governments.
frednk
Don’t be offended but imo anyone who repetitively utters “Liberals death squad” as you do can’t be taken seriously.
Pegasus says:
Monday, May 4, 2020 at 10:22 pm
frednk
Don’t be offended but imo anyone who repetitively utters “Liberals death squad” as you do can’t be taken seriously.
If the virus gets away again it will be a phrase that will be easy to make popular. It’s very strange that Morrison and the right wing posters here have been lining up the Liberal party for the tag.
I’m being kind; pointing out the risk they are taking.
poroti says:
Monday, May 4, 2020 at 8:55 pm
You need to be much more specific- there are a lot of different types of temporary and permanent work visas. All of them have different requirements for employees and employers.
It was the “Yay!” at the end that was key to your attitude.
And please don’t patronize me because I disagree with you. I am under no illusions that the app will “make us all safe”. And I am not some marketing dupe who’s fallen under Scott Morrison’s spell. So you can cut out the condescension Cud Chewer.
I downloaded the app because I think it will increase the chances of quicker tracking of some infection outbreaks, if uptake is sufficient (or even, with luck, if it is insufficient).
Attitudes like yours – “It’s not perfect, and not enough people have downloaded it, so I’ll mock it” – will make sure it tends to fail: a self-fulfilling prophecy.
We can only be so blasé about it because we THINK we have time. But we don’t. Another 6 months of lockdown will see this country ruined economically. Fucked. There’ll probably have to be a war to get things moving again (the usual solution to economic depression).
If you’re cosy on a pension or Job Keeper, and are enjoying the luxury of scepticism, get ready for your stipend to be cut in half in a few months’ time if the situation doesn’t change. Failing that, and failing a treatment or a vaccine, expect “herd immunity” to become a thing: actual government policy. There are already poor bastards in our community who are desperate and broke. In another six months of the more financially fortunate (for now) picking, choosing and heckling, waiting for perfection, that will be millions. Millions here, not “over there”.
Your dream of universal testing is a perfect solution, I agree, but I can guarantee you it’ll never happen. Just forget it. Concentrate on what can be done, not on what is ideal, but impossible.
I am under no delusions that the app will save everyone, and I loathe ScoMo and his grease monkies as much as the next person. But if the app saves some lives by shortening some tracking paths it’s a step in the right direction, and may be a preventative against far harsher measures, perhaps a more invasive version #3 (version #2 will be a bug-fix), that you (and I) can really complain about.
What Other Coronaviruses Tell Us About SARS-CoV-2
https://www.quantamagazine.org/what-can-other-coronaviruses-tell-us-about-sars-cov-2-20200429/
frednk
“How do you get three percent”
It was a comment on an article that Pegasus posted a while ago which named a take up figure for the app. I think it was 4.5 million. The source I have says 4.3 million.
There is a square law relationship between the percentage of people with the app and the percentage of contacts the app can record. For example – if 50 percent of the population has the app active then of that 50%, only half of the people they come near will also have the app. Meaning that the app sees only 25% of contacts. Its just basic math.
At 4.5 million take up that’s 18% of the population. The square of 18% is 3.2%
And I say “up to” because of several factors.
– Not everyone has bluetooth running all the time.
– 57% of smartphones are Apple and to make the app work correctly you need to remember to bring the app to the front before locking the phone. Locking the phone is such a motor-memory thing that a lot of people are going to forget.
– The app currently as I understand it polls once per minute and records every contact within range (~10m). Every such recorded contact gets uploaded to a database. Before human tracers get to see that data, it is filtered. We presume that the filters will tend to drop weaker (lower signal strength) contacts and will tend to filter out contacts that don’t last 15 minutes. This is in part to avoid overloading the human. But this means the contact tracer might not get to see all potentially hazardous contacts. For instance, you’re in a train carriage. The virus can spread as an aerosol, potentially reaching everyone in the carriage. Now, if you didn’t have the app and you were a contact tracer, you’d most likely issue an alert and try to get everyone who used that train carriage to call and get tested. However, with the app you may only get to see what the filters show you. So you may only get those within a row or two either side. The other thing I’m leery of is the arbitrary rule of 15 minutes. Yes, its been shown that the longer the contact, the more likely it is. But like everything else in nature, there’s a distribution. You might have sat next to someone who sneezed and your app might not even see that person because it only polls once a minute. You might have someone whose just rushed to catch the train and is breathing heavily but only stood next to you for 5 minutes. In short, the app really only does “up to”. A human still has to decide what’s significant and what is not and hence the app really doesn’t save a lot of time. Where it does help is where you forgot where you were or what you did. But even then the app doesn’t report your location. Rather the human has to phone up every contact and then ask them about their movements to infer where you might have been. And its still a bit hit and miss.
The Korean system (and others do this too) is that they build a map of precisely where you have been. Every step. They pull hours of CCTV footage, identifying every step you took and then identifying everyone you stood next to and they are very good at this – but yes it requires large teams.
To be honest I would love to see an app that really does record your location – but doesn’t upload that location information until you are tested and interviewed and voluntarily submit it. The data thus correlated allows the human tracer to know not only what your contacts were, but where they were as well. Thus being able to build up a physical map quickly before making heaps of phone calls. Otherwise absent of location information, the human tracer has to ring people up and go “where do you think you were are X time?”.
And there’s other reasons why the app will miss things owing to other technical issues like the fact that signal strength can be calibrated with distance but only in open air. Once you have radio reflective and absorptive surfaces the same correlation between signal strength and distance can be quite poor. Also the effect of interference of other bluetooth and non bluetooth signals (its a very crowded bit of spectrum) will also make that correlation very difficult.
Also, don’t forget that contact tracing even at its best does not guarantee the ability to control an outbreak. If the app has a very high take up rate then it does help because even though the person who infected you may well have infected other people, once your infection is detected, they can quickly cross reference to the likely source of infection, then get his/her contacts and then start isolating people whilst they are still in the incubation period. But the likelyhood of doing this quick search through the web of contacts gets increasingly low when you’re talking about realistic app take up numbers.
This is actually why I think an app is a potentially amazing thing. But only at very high take up – 70 percent. I’m not even sure that many people have or regularly use a smartphone. In the absence of an app with very high takeup rate, the way to proactively interrupt chains of infections in a way that will stomp on an outbreak is, again, very well resourced manual detective work. And my biggest gripe with the app is that its a distraction from the government implementing and resourcing what will actually work – even if its a massive breach of privacy like it is in Korea – which I actually approve of.
Incidentally.
One weakness of covid19 is that long incubation period. Really good contact tracing has the potential to find and isolate people who have been exposed but haven’t become infectious. Unlike the flu for example. Really good contact tracing (of the old fashioned kind) does work.
BB
“I downloaded the app because I think it will increase the chances of quicker tracking of some infection outbreaks, if uptake is sufficient (or even, with luck, if it is insufficient).”
I have no problem with you doing so. My “yay” is an expression of disappointment and frustration as to how everyone has been distracted by the whole app thing and as a result aren’t noticing the things the government should be doing and aren’t. It was also my annoyance at Pegasus posting stuff without comment.
Oh and btw, why aren’t YOU also demanding that we hold on to the current restrictions longer, to increase the chances of elimination? Because being patient for a few more weeks, especially in Sydney is by far the most potent way of avoiding the thing you (and I) most fear.
frednk
“If the virus gets away again it will be a phrase that will be easy to make popular. It’s very strange that Morrison and the right wing posters here have been lining up the Liberal party for the tag.”
Its also significant that the right wing posters are perfectly happy with the virus at a level where it could easily get out of hand. Is there such a thing as a “reckless and empathy challenged death squad”?
I will also note that nowhere have the right wing posters here, nor indeed Scomo and his pet CMO answered the question of “how many cases is safe”, let alone attempted to justify that figure in any scientific or rational way. Yet they are happy to experiment with the lives of millions of people without an argument you can run a calculator over.
frednk @ #1266 Monday, May 4th, 2020 – 8:14 pm
Why do you think this?
Most of what I’ve seen suggests that the World’s population will max out at about 11 billion by the end of the century.
Barney
It would be nice to know what Australia will max out at.
Also, I think the biggest wave of immigration is yet to come – all the climate refugees.
Unless we proactively help these countries improve their technology and institutions.
Not that the Libs would give a shit.
Cud Chewer has found the old Cold & Flu with the real kickarse pseudoephidrine and taken 10.
Cud Chewer @ #1277 Monday, May 4th, 2020 – 9:27 pm
The projections are that Australia won’t max out because of our immigration rate lift our low birth rate above replacement.
This page has it reaching nearly 43 million by the end of the century.
https://www.populationpyramid.net/australia/2100/
Weak answer:
I don’t live in Sydney.
Strong answer:
Indicate where I said we shouldn’t hold onto restrictions longer and your question might have a bit more relevance to it.
I personally think it’s crazy to be, for example, sending kids back to school.
The last time I had the flu – 14 years ago – I was so sick I wished I was dead (for an hour or so, anyway). I caught it from my (then) 7 year old grandson. It’s over a decade later and I’ve only just forgiven the little shit.
Kids can infect adults. Opening schools is crazy. But if they’re determined to do it, then the app might help.
Parenthetically, I believe that after a few school closures, all the schools will be shut again.
The app won’t help in schools where mobile phones are prohibited during school hours.
Does anyone have any idea where to find the attachments to this?
https://www.pm.gov.au/sites/default/files/files/attachc-ahppc-precedent-conditions-relaxation-restrictions.pdf
As it stands its little more than waffle
Cud Chewer @ #1285 Monday, May 4th, 2020 – 9:40 pm
You expected more? 😆
Well, don’t install it then, and, if there’s a few more million of you, that’ll make sure it’s useless.
Miller Logic: always infallible.
Just don’t confuse punishing ScoMo with doing a public health favour for your fellow citizens, or yourself.
Hear that laughter? It’s the virus.
BB
The government has released draft privacy legislation.
That’s admitting that yes there are privacy concerns.
As I have said earlier I will download the app after the legislation passes.
However I may quickly delete it if the reports I have been reading are correct. I have no guilt in this. So trying the guilt trip of you are putting us in danger is not going to work.
It was never going to work.
As the number of downloads shows. The majority of Australians are not downloading the app.
Edit: Guilt trip is the government approach
Roger Miller @ #1284 Monday, May 4th, 2020 – 11:38 pm
Why would you need the app to be working in schools? There could hardly be a simpler way to do contact tracing than through school attendance.
To be crystal clear. I will be downloading the app because the government has passed privacy legislation.
That will make that the most legally secure data on my phone. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/may/04/government-releases-draft-legislation-for-covidsafe-tracing-app-to-allay-privacy-concerns
Tomorrow, Friday 1 May 2020, a new law will commence in #Tibet: “Regulations on the Establishment of a Model Area for Ethnic Unity and Progress in the Tibet Autonomous Region” #ethnicunitytibet
First Xinjiang, now Tibet passes rules to promote ‘ethnic unity’
Autonomous region’s legislature endorses ‘dos and don’ts’ for governments, companies and institutions to take effect from May 1.
scmp.com
Art. 11 of the new ethnic unity law states that “Chinese culture is the centre of all culture in #Tibet”
Guytaur:
Tracing can be done in such a way that it is technically impossible to breach any privacy in any way whatsoever. If that were done, there would be no need for legislation.
Privacy legislation is extremely dubious and relying on it is usually unwise. This is mainly because it is rather difficult to get it right at the technical level (in fact, if this could be done mechanically, the CIA etc. would be very interested to know how). The EU approach is OK, but it’s based on decades of experience. A far better approach—applicable in this instance—is simply to avoid using any data that might be considered private: in effect one avoids misuse by avoiding any use.
EGT
I want the EU approach.
The government penalties are clear and it’s criminal law not civil.
Mourning in America: https://twitter.com/i/status/1257264160213217285
Guytaur
If done in haste—such as in the middle of a pandemic—it would be a disaster.
They worked it though over decades, and had a multi-year phase in. It’s not possible to bring it in in any other way because the problems are mostly not legal problems. In fact a big part of the challenge was to stop the lawyers from buggering it up.
EGT
I will say it again. The penalties are clear. This makes it the most legally secure data on my phone.
Hopefully soon we will get the EU solution. This legislation is the government admitting we need privacy legislation
New thread.