Three-cornered contestants

As candidates jockey for the early running in Eden-Monaro, the results of a reported Nationals internal poll, plus a couple of other things to be dubious about.

Bega Valley Shire mayor Kristy McBain has been anointed by Anthony Albanese as Labor’s candidate for the Eden-Monaro by-election, despite the fact that a designated nominations period had yet to expire. The Nationals have justified their optimism by providing The Australian ($) with an internal poll conducted immediately after Mike Kelly’s retirement announcement on Thursday, the paper’s report of which begins thus: “NSW Deputy Premier John Barilaro would win the Eden-Monaro by-election if he chooses to stand” (UPDATE: See account of weekend developments at the bottom of the post). This fact turns out to have been established by a 52-48 lead over Kristy McBain, and primary votes that have Barilaro leading hypothetical Liberal candidate Jim Molan by 30% to 21%, with McBain on 35% and Greens candidate Patrick McGinlay on 8%.

However, a report by David Crowe of the Age/Herald ($) suggests state Transport Minister and Bega MP Andrew Constance has been responsive to colleagues’ suggestions he should seek Liberal preselection, and Barilaro has said he will not run if Constance does. Furthermore, “some state sources said there was still a chance both men would pull back from the contest”. In that case, it would seem Fiona Kotvojs, who ran at the election last year, would get another run for the Liberals, and the Nationals would presumably go back to being uncompetitive. Candidacies of either or both of Barilaro and Constance respectively raise the prospect of state by-elections for the seats of Monaro (Nationals margin 11.6%) and Bega (Liberal margin 6.9%), neither of which are unloseable by the recent historic standards of by-elections.

In other news, Roy Morgan has conducted its occasional exercise of publishing the latest results of its federal voting polling, which these days it keeps to itself except when it believes it has identified a newsworthy angle to the results. Onthis occasion its a forceful swing to the Coalition that was missed by Newspoll, such that it now leads 51.5-48.5 after trailing 53-47 in polling from mid-March (compared with 51-49 from the Newspoll of the time). On the primary vote, the Coalition was up seven to 43.5%, Labor down three to 33%, the Greens up half to 11.5% and One Nation down one to 3%. Among the unanswered questions are what impact an apparent chopping and changing of survey methods may have had, with this latest result said to combine phone and online polling for a sample of 2806 over the two weekends just past. Many others besides have been canvassed by Kevin Bonham.

Then there’s the latest effort from Dynata for the Institute of Public Affairs, this time concerning coronavirus restrictions, which I’m not going to say anything about except that it’s out there. Among the questions respondents were invited to agree or disagree with was the following: “There should be an immediate easing of petty restrictions with appropriate social distancing in place”. If I were completing such a survey, my reaction to this question would be to recognise that I was being manipulated and refuse to complete it, and I suspect I’m not alone.

UPDATE (4/5/20): Conflicting signals on the John Barilaro front this morning, courtesy of apparently separate sources both said to be close to him. The Sydney Morning Herald ($) reported overnight that Barilaro would formally announce his intention not to run this morning, but The Australian ($) has been told that this is wrong and that Barilaro is still considering his position. The Herald reports claims from Liberals that Crosby Textor internal polling shows Andrew Constance would win the seat in canter, and that the state Liberals consider Constance’s seat of Bega to be easier to defend at a by-election than Barilaro’s seat of Monaro, which might fall to Shooters Fishers and Farmers or such like. Barilaro and Constance are apparently both on the record saying they will drop out if the other runs rather than expose the state government to two by-elections, which merely raises the question of which claim takes precedence.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,298 comments on “Three-cornered contestants”

Comments Page 24 of 26
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  3. Malcolm Farr
    @farrm51
    ·
    3m
    NSW Libs must have a lot of dough. They’ve got two bye-election campaigns to fund, one federal, one state. Labor will be scratching to pay for the federal show.

  4. Corio’s analysis re cancellation of EW link is spot on.

    More or less. Andrews was doing the right thing, but for the wrong reason, which is actually causing him grief now. He came around to opposing the scheme to avoid the crude wedge that the Coalition had devised in an attempt to engineer Greens victories over the ALP in inner suburban seats.

    Because he and Pallas weren’t opposed to the road as a concept, they couldn’t provide a credible reason for stopping it. If they had noted that major motorway projects have never “solved” any traffic congestion problem, and had clearly prioritised sustainable transport protects as alternatives, they would have been on very firm ground, then and now.

    The lack of a coherent conceptual underpinning of their decision is now exposed because people can legitimately ask, if not the east-west toll road, then why the north-east one, or the forthcoming road eyesore on the lower reaches of the Maribyrnong River, feeding more car traffic into the city?

  5. Jacinda says (about renewing flights)

    “It won’t happen in the next few weeks and only if it doesn’t pose a public health risk”

    That’s code for we’re not going to do that till NSW gets its act together and eliminates the virus fully.

  6. lizzie @ #1150 Monday, May 4th, 2020 – 6:00 pm

    Malcolm Farr
    @farrm51
    ·
    3m
    NSW Libs must have a lot of dough. They’ve got two bye-election campaigns to fund, one federal, one state. Labor will be scratching to pay for the federal show.

    I’ve already put some of my Corona stimulus money in to this good cause. 🙂

  7. Sir Henry Parkes @ #1142 Monday, May 4th, 2020 – 5:55 pm

    It seems you suffer from selective morality.

    Who do I vote for ?
    I get as much information as I can about the candidates on my ballot paper and preference them from worst to least worst.
    ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
    Don’t you dare tell me how moral or otherwise I am.
    I have marched against the war in Vietnam, demonstrated against apartheid at a rugby match and have been interrogated by the Israeli police about my journalism in the occupied Palestinian territories.
    The choice at Australian elections is between a Coalition and a Labor government. I know which one is more likely to progress towards a zero-emissions economy. That is why I vote 1 Labor and 2 Greens.
    Selecting “the least worst to vote for” is a waste of time and reflects a sense of hopelessness about implementing meaningful change.

    The choice at the ballot box is for the best available candidate on your paper.

    Partisanship is so non-sensical and ridiculous.

  11. Bega District News

    Labor confirms Kristy McBain as candidate for Eden-Monaro by-election

    https://www.begadistrictnews.com.au/story/6744269/by-election-beckons-former-bega-mayor/?cs=509

    After much speculation, state Nationals MP John Barilaro confirmed he will not contest the by-election, and government colleague Andrew Constance has said his options remain open. Last year’s Liberal candidate for the electorate Fiona Kotvojs, who narrowly lost to Dr Kelly, and Liberal Senator Jim Molan have confirmed they will run for pre-selection.

    Over the weekend, Yass businessman Michael Pilbrow said he would put his case to Labor’s national executive, adding he was “disappointed there will not be a rank-and-file vote of party members in the electorate”.

    “Our members across the electorate volunteer their blood, sweat and tears for our party and deserve a say in selecting candidates for political office,” he said.

    Another local Labor member said they also felt the party should have held a rank-and-file pre-selection vote rather than a “captain’s pick”.

  12. RN Drive apparently will have more from Jacinda.. not sure when but the program is on now.

    Ok, its on right now. ABC radio national.

  13. Pegasus @ #1153 Monday, May 4th, 2020 – 6:01 pm

    Corio’s analysis re cancellation of EW link is spot on.

    More or less. Andrews was doing the right thing, but for the wrong reason, which is actually causing him grief now. He came around to opposing the scheme to avoid the crude wedge that the Coalition had devised in an attempt to engineer Greens victories over the ALP in inner suburban seats.

    Because he and Pallas weren’t opposed to the road as a concept, they couldn’t provide a credible reason for stopping it. If they had noted that major motorway projects have never “solved” any traffic congestion problem, and had clearly prioritised sustainable transport protects as alternatives, they would have been on very firm ground, then and now.

    The lack of a coherent conceptual underpinning of their decision is now exposed because people can legitimately ask, if not the east-west toll road, then why the north-east one, or the forthcoming road eyesore on the lower reaches of the Maribyrnong River, feeding more car traffic into the city?

    I’m not sure any one but the navel gazers give a fuck.

    Andrews ran in 2014 explicitly saying the EW extension would not happen. He won!

    In 2018 despite continuous campaigns by the media and the Libs , Andrews won with an increased majority. The cherry is that the money diverted from the EW project revamped the train line all along the marginal seat line which Andrews won with aplomb.

    So this EW debate is a loser for the Libs and helps Labor every time they trot it out.

  14. Barilaro won’t contest Eden-Monaro race

    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6743939/barilaro-wont-contest-eden-monaro-race/?cs=14231

    Liberal senator Jim Molan is also reportedly considering standing and has until Friday to nominate.

    When asked which man should run for the Liberal Party, Mr Barilaro said he was “a fan of Andrew Constance – I think Andrew Constance can win the seat”.

    But Mr Barilaro flagged the Nationals could still stand a candidate.

    When contacted for comment, Mr Constance’s office on Monday said it had “nothing to add at this moment in time”.

  17. Juanita Phillips
    @Juanita_Phillip
    ·
    21h
    Came home from work to find the Girl Teen has dyed the dog blue. I am. Officially. Frickin. Over. It. #Isolation

  18. I got another text today urging me to download the Government app.

    So, why do they want me to download something that tells them where I am when they already have that information?

  19. citizen @ #1079 Monday, May 4th, 2020 – 4:00 pm

    Presumably “JobSeeker” was chosen to differentiate between the “deserving” unemployed now and the “undeserving” unemployed prior to covid-19.

    Yeah, that. Nothing about the politics surrounding unemployed people and whether or not the electorate is happy to keep them on $40/day will change. People newly unemployed due to C19 don’t see themselves as part of “the unemployed”.

    They’re special, and the Coalition will reinforce that with special treatment. No change in “dole bludger” rhetoric required.

  20. Cud
    “That’s code for we’re not going to do that till NSW gets its act together and eliminates the virus fully.”

    Yes exactly. There is a large kiwi community in Sydney that would be an obvious concern.

    But assuming NSW gets its act into order, trade and travel between Australia and NZ back to normal levels would produce big financial benefits to both countries. Thousands employed in tourism alone. NZ is also a large market for Aussie financial and tech services.

  21. “Andrew Constance is running for Eden-Monaro apparently according to SMH ”

    That’s good news for Gladys, win or lose.

  24. Socrates

    I told a NZ friend that I might go and visit later this year. But it aint happening if there are still carriers in Sydney. We may get lucky here, but Scomo in telling people that its all safe is really not helping.

  26. Greensborough Growler @ #1168 Monday, May 4th, 2020 – 6:18 pm

    I got another text today urging me to download the Government app.

    So, why do they want me to download something that tells them where I am when they already have that information?

    If you download the Government app, then everyone else will be able to avoid you as well.

  27. I wonder if NZ might firstly open up flights into Queenstown for the ski season? They could conceivably restrict domestic travel out of the ski fields.

  30. Player One @ #1176 Monday, May 4th, 2020 – 6:26 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #1168 Monday, May 4th, 2020 – 6:18 pm

    I got another text today urging me to download the Government app.

    So, why do they want me to download something that tells them where I am when they already have that information?

    If you download the Government app, then everyone else will be able to avoid you as well.

    Thank goodness we have telephones and the internet for my customers, eh.

    How’s Bumcrack Mountain travelling?

  33. Whoops!
    Just got my bit of LNP propaganda via Optus, imploring me to join up with “the App”.
    Bloody Optus should stick its nose out of politics.
    This is for an App which, currently, has not been fired up, there are no guarantees as to the maintenance of privacy and no clear indication it will make any difference one way or the other.
    I notice the Brits are trialling something similar on the Isle of White after the Shetlands (isolated island off the north coast) said thanks, but no thanks to Westminster using them as guinea pigs.
    Good on the Shetland islanders……..!

  36. SMH article linked to by T

    “Liberal Senator Jim Molan was also believed to be seriously considering a lower house seat, but a political source close to him said he had decided not to nominate for preselection. This too would be confirmed on Tuesday.”

  37. This is a very good UK Guardian article that articulates the Reactionary Right’s attitudes to COVID-19 and lockdown as just another hill to fight the culture wars on:

    For weeks we have heard that merely asking questions about the government’s handling of the coronavirus outbreak is “politicising the crisis”. But now some people on the right are indeed making the pandemic political – firing up the culture wars …

    But the key issue in the right’s current culture war is the lockdown, which is being presented as a freedom-sucking con – much like the EU. Mirroring the dynamics of climate denialism, those challenging the overwhelming consensus of global expertise cast themselves as lockdown “sceptics”. And cleaving to a rightwing populist script, these sceptics say their legitimate concerns are being silenced.

    Writing in the Spectator, Lionel Shriver notes that no TV platform is offered to those outside the 89% who support the lockdown. The sceptics claim to be speaking truth to the overly frightened masses, explaining that a costly lockdown is more deadly in the long term and urging that we reassess priorities. As Toby Young put it: “Spending £350bn to prolong the lives of a few hundred thousand mostly elderly people is an irresponsible use of taxpayers’ money.” Failing the most basic moral test of any society worthy of the description, lockdown sceptics say that a recession may be more deadly than the pandemic, an idea already dismissed as nonsense.

    …What’s really being contested is the kind of society that will emerge once this is over. And you can see why Brexit populists and big-state haters are worried. When Rishi Sunak unveiled an unprecedented economic bailout last month, one rightwing commentator told me it was infuriating: if the government could so easily pump money into society, how would the right ever again argue against state funding?

    …Their power in the press and in the heart of government signals the battles we will face over the shape of our future society – and shows how existing divisions may be manipulated for political advantage.

    The sceptics are currently out of sync with public opinion. But as we know from painful experience, we can’t assume this will always be the case.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/27/lockdown-scepticism-culture-war-brexit

  38. Speaking of NZ holidays, I have fond memories.

    When Mrs Sprocket and I were wanting to start a family, we were having a bit of trouble getting going. So off to NZ for a holiday, and the hot springs at Rotorua proved to be just the tonic for loosening up the important parts for baby making.

    Will certainly go back this year if the bubble descends..

  40. This does seem a bit ghoulish, but hey, any port in a storm..

    “The pandemic is going to take a greater toll on the conservative electorate leading into this election — and that’s simply just a calculation of age,” Andrew Johnson, the lead author and a professor of management at Texas A&M University-Corpus Christi, said in an interview. “The virus is killing more older voters, and in many states that’s the key to a GOP victory.”

    Johnson and his colleagues Wendi Pollock and Beth M. Rauhaus projected that even with shelter-in-place orders remaining in effect, about 11,000 more Republicans than Democrats who are 65 and older could die before the election in both Michigan and North Carolina.

    In Pennsylvania, should the state return to using only social distancing to fight infections, over 13,000 more Republican

    https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/23/how-coronavirus-could-upend-2020-battlegrounds-204708

  43. Player One @ #1191 Monday, May 4th, 2020 – 6:52 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #1184 Monday, May 4th, 2020 – 6:38 pm

    Player One @ #1181 Monday, May 4th, 2020 – 6:35 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #1180 Monday, May 4th, 2020 – 6:34 pm

    How’s Bumcrack Mountain travelling?

    I have a telescope, so I can see it from here. Which one are you? Can you wave or something?

    The telephone call is coming from inside your home!

    Can’t be. We haven’t had a telephone service here for nearly 6 months now 🙁

    Maybe no one wants to ring you?

  44. “This is a very good UK Guardian article that articulates the Reactionary Right’s attitudes to COVID-19 and lockdown as just another hill to fight the culture wars on:”

    That isn’t half obvious given certain posters on here.

  46. Transport Minister Andrew Constance will contest Eden-Monaro

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/transport-minister-andrew-constance-will-contest-eden-monaro-20200504-p54pp8.html

    Despite speculation to the contrary, the Herald has been told the Prime Minister’s office was staying clear of any involvement in the process and wanted it to be determined by local party branches.

    “The last thing the Prime Minister’s office wants is a repeat of Gilmore,” the source said.

    Prime Minister Scott Morrison hand-picked former Labor Party president Warren Mundine as the candidate in Gilmore, ousting the man who had already been pre-selected by local members.

    Liberal pre-selections for the seat will close on Friday.

  47. Danama Papers says:
    Monday, May 4, 2020 at 6:32 pm

    For fans of Billions (and if you’re not, you should be), the first episode of the new season is now available on Stan.
    _______
    Did you catch who was doing all that smash work with the hammer at the end of the episode? Was that Wendy? I missed something obviously. Still, it’s great to have it back. #TeamSacker

  50. I’m still trying to work out what Scrott’s angle is re bring in Ardern for the National cabinet meeting. NZ CMO equivalent has mentioned several times he is in almost daily touch with his Australian counter parts. A couple of ministers have said they have been speaking with their Australian counterparts so it is not as if there would be any mystery about what each other are doing and are aiming for.

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