Three-cornered contestants

As candidates jockey for the early running in Eden-Monaro, the results of a reported Nationals internal poll, plus a couple of other things to be dubious about.

Bega Valley Shire mayor Kristy McBain has been anointed by Anthony Albanese as Labor’s candidate for the Eden-Monaro by-election, despite the fact that a designated nominations period had yet to expire. The Nationals have justified their optimism by providing The Australian ($) with an internal poll conducted immediately after Mike Kelly’s retirement announcement on Thursday, the paper’s report of which begins thus: “NSW Deputy Premier John Barilaro would win the Eden-Monaro by-election if he chooses to stand” (UPDATE: See account of weekend developments at the bottom of the post). This fact turns out to have been established by a 52-48 lead over Kristy McBain, and primary votes that have Barilaro leading hypothetical Liberal candidate Jim Molan by 30% to 21%, with McBain on 35% and Greens candidate Patrick McGinlay on 8%.

However, a report by David Crowe of the Age/Herald ($) suggests state Transport Minister and Bega MP Andrew Constance has been responsive to colleagues’ suggestions he should seek Liberal preselection, and Barilaro has said he will not run if Constance does. Furthermore, “some state sources said there was still a chance both men would pull back from the contest”. In that case, it would seem Fiona Kotvojs, who ran at the election last year, would get another run for the Liberals, and the Nationals would presumably go back to being uncompetitive. Candidacies of either or both of Barilaro and Constance respectively raise the prospect of state by-elections for the seats of Monaro (Nationals margin 11.6%) and Bega (Liberal margin 6.9%), neither of which are unloseable by the recent historic standards of by-elections.

In other news, Roy Morgan has conducted its occasional exercise of publishing the latest results of its federal voting polling, which these days it keeps to itself except when it believes it has identified a newsworthy angle to the results. Onthis occasion its a forceful swing to the Coalition that was missed by Newspoll, such that it now leads 51.5-48.5 after trailing 53-47 in polling from mid-March (compared with 51-49 from the Newspoll of the time). On the primary vote, the Coalition was up seven to 43.5%, Labor down three to 33%, the Greens up half to 11.5% and One Nation down one to 3%. Among the unanswered questions are what impact an apparent chopping and changing of survey methods may have had, with this latest result said to combine phone and online polling for a sample of 2806 over the two weekends just past. Many others besides have been canvassed by Kevin Bonham.

Then there’s the latest effort from Dynata for the Institute of Public Affairs, this time concerning coronavirus restrictions, which I’m not going to say anything about except that it’s out there. Among the questions respondents were invited to agree or disagree with was the following: “There should be an immediate easing of petty restrictions with appropriate social distancing in place”. If I were completing such a survey, my reaction to this question would be to recognise that I was being manipulated and refuse to complete it, and I suspect I’m not alone.

UPDATE (4/5/20): Conflicting signals on the John Barilaro front this morning, courtesy of apparently separate sources both said to be close to him. The Sydney Morning Herald ($) reported overnight that Barilaro would formally announce his intention not to run this morning, but The Australian ($) has been told that this is wrong and that Barilaro is still considering his position. The Herald reports claims from Liberals that Crosby Textor internal polling shows Andrew Constance would win the seat in canter, and that the state Liberals consider Constance’s seat of Bega to be easier to defend at a by-election than Barilaro’s seat of Monaro, which might fall to Shooters Fishers and Farmers or such like. Barilaro and Constance are apparently both on the record saying they will drop out if the other runs rather than expose the state government to two by-elections, which merely raises the question of which claim takes precedence.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,298 comments on “Three-cornered contestants”

Comments Page 23 of 26
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  1. Peak oil is, like most sustainability theories based on physical science, often misrepresented by those seeking to defend the status quo on behalf of those who cause the problem. I think the ancient Greek term for such misrepresentation was sophistry.

    Peak oil theory did not say we will run out of oil. It said we would run out of cheap oil, which would then drive a need to spend more extracting hard to get oil, or develop more costly substitutes. As with electric cars, fracking oil and shale oil, that is exactly what is happening. Eventually pealk oil theory says we will have dwindling oil supplies, and will need to have either moved to some other energy source, or pay a very high price for it. The fact that oil demand and price has dropped due to a one off market disruption, has nothing to do with peak oil, and has not invalidated the theory.

  3. At this time of shutdown, we have so many memories of Parliament to fall back on. 😆

    @bugwannostra
    ·
    1h
    Do you remember when Tony Abbott made Bronwyn Bishop speaker? I think it was after #choppergate. As a speaker, she wasn’t partisan at all. She threw out 99 MPs from the House of Rep’s it was just a coincidence all 99 were Labor MPs.
    ***

    Phillip Coorey @PhillipCoorey
    ·
    7m
    was before Choppergate. She threw out more than 400. By the time she got to 400, 393 were Labor.

  4. The Guardian

    Breaking. Labor preselects candidate Labor was expected to preselect.

    And the Liberals have picked Andrew Constance, the NSW transport minister for Eden-Monaro. Fascinating contest.

    And just as that last bit of news about Andrew Constance seeps through, Liberal senator Zed Seselja is live on the ABC being asked about the by-election.

    Zed tells Patricia Karvelas: “What I wouldn’t want to do is dictate to the NSW Liberal party who they should preselect.”

  7. Edited because of some fuck up

    There is something about NSW recoveries which suggests, as was the case to begin with, the figure is not well regarded/maintained by NSW Health.

    On 21 April alone there were 400 recoveries which suggests some new method because on no other day has that figure been matched or anything like it.

    Plus there have been about 190 new cases in the last three weeks which approximates the period of the disease but NSW has >600 active cases.

    By comparison, in Victoria there have been 130 cases in the last 21 days and are now only 78 active cases.

  9. shellbell
    Agree. It would be nice to be informed of the data protocols being applied so that we could understand what the numbers are supposed to mean.

  10. Everyone will continue to get texts asking them to download the app – that’s the privacy laws at work.

  11. Peg

    Still looking for the Greens explanation about how an additional 25,000,000 people by 2050 will improve sustainability.

    Maintaining current levels of sustainability is actually maintaining current levels of unsustainability for everything from water use to CO2 emissions.

  13. Sir Henry Parkes @ #1087 Monday, May 4th, 2020 – 4:18 pm

    In the 1930s my grandfather was worried by reports that known existing coal reserves would run out, probably not in his lifetime, but probably in his children’s. With coal being the main driver of energy back then and with no talk of global warming, so far as I am aware, you can see why my grandfather was worried this would bring about the collapse of civilisation as we knew it.
    All I can think is, what a shame my grandfather wasn’t right. If we had passed peak coal and peak oil, at least we wouldn’t be having these pointless debates about the alleged superiority of coal-fired base load and alleged inadequacies of renewable energy when the sun doesn’t shine and the wind doesn’t blow.
    Who cares if there’s enough coal, oil and gas to keep burning for the next 100 years?
    Fossil fuels are killing our environment and we need to stop using them ASAP. For God’s sake leave them all in the earth and let’s start moving towards renewable energy NOW.

    Labor and the LibNats have significant investment in fossil fuels and intend to prop up the industry for many yrs to come.

    If your concern is serious you will vote for someone else.

  14. laughtong

    On TV not easy to like, either. Similar to many of the po-faced, hardline MPs. Which is why I didn’t recognise him.

  15. While I would prefer Kristy, Constance would be a useful addition to the quality of the federal parliament.
    Infinitely preferable to Molan and Barilaro.

  16. Pegasus thanks for the link. My thoughts..

    I’d support Queensland’s decision to return year 11/12 students. They are able to do social distancing.
    Reassessing the situation on May 15 may be too soon. I’m less bothered by this than the thought that a lot of adults are losing their social distancing thanks to Scomo telling us how safe we are.

    I’m ok with year 11 and 12 returning in NSW, but only under the most carefully controlled circumstances and to be honest, these students and the teachers should be blanket tested. As for the “one day a week” thing for other years, even Gladys admits this has the potential to spark clusters. One other thing. NSW could be reopening schools, carefully, in most of the state. But there are parts of Sydney that really should stay closed for 2-3 more weeks and I’m hoping that parents realise this and respond appropriately.

    Victoria has sensibly taken the least regrets path. Again I’m more worried about adults gaining a false sense of security thanks to Scomo and his lapgdog CMO preaching “very low level”. Not, its not, really.

    As for the rest of the country, I’m feeling good. The rest of the country is headed to elimination and will keep their borders closed.

  18. “There is something about NSW recoveries which suggests, as was the case to begin with, the figure is not well regarded/maintained by NSW Health.”

    Which is one of the reasons why I don’t feel fully confident about the culture within senior levels of NSW Health.

  20. I assume that the Greens will be wanting the additional 25 million Australians not to put additional pressure on already shattered coastal environments.

    Will they force the extra 25 million to go and live in the Simpson’s Desert?

    What?

  21. Guardian

    It has taken Labor’s Stephen Jones several nanoseconds to bring up Liberal Eden-Monaro candidate Andrew Constance’s comments about Scott Morrison earlier this year; that the PM “got the welcome he deserved” during the bushfire emergency earlier this year.

    Of course, there’s no guarantee the pair will campaign shoulder-to-shoulder, or that there will even be a physical campaign, in Eden-Monaro.

    But expect to see that clip played about 2bn times between now and the by-election.

  23. The McBain preselection is interesting in that Labor bypassed a rank and file vote. Were they afraid of union branch stacking for another union hack ?

  24. Pegasus says:
    Monday, May 4, 2020 at 4:46 pm
    The Guardian

    Breaking. Labor preselects candidate Labor was expected to preselect.

    And the Liberals have picked Andrew Constance, the NSW transport minister for Eden-Monaro. Fascinating contest.

    And just as that last bit of news about Andrew Constance seeps through, Liberal senator Zed Seselja is live on the ABC being asked about the by-election.

    Zed tells Patricia Karvelas: “What I wouldn’t want to do is dictate to the NSW Liberal party who they should preselect.”

    My guess is that the NSW Liberals will not want to see Seselja anywhere near Eden-Monaro. Barilaro yes, Berejiklian yes, Morrison no!

  25. So many critics of what Kristina Keneally ostensibly said.
    So few actually criticising what she actually said.
    Here is part of her article in the SMH:

    More than half the nation’s population growth since 2005 has come from overseas migration. High levels of immigration, especially skilled migration, helped sustain Australia’s 28 years of uninterrupted economic growth.
    …….
    While Australia’s high level of migration played a key role in our economic prosperity, in recent years the shape and size of our intake has hurt many Australian workers, contributing to unemployment, underemployment and low wage growth.
    …
    Our economic recovery must help all Australians get back on their feet, and to do that we need a migration program that puts Australian workers first.
    ….
    Governments of all stripes have relied on high levels of migration to boost population to fuel economic growth. Arguably, at times this has been a lazy approach. Letting lots of migrants come to Australia is an easier way to drive economic growth than increasing productivity or investing in skills and training.
    ….
    Temporary migrants make up a larger part of the labour market than most Australians might realise. Migrant workers don’t just pick fruit: one in five chefs, one in four cooks, one in six hospitality workers, and one in 10 nursing support and personal care workers in Australia hold a temporary visa.

    As economist Stephen Koukoulas pointed out before the crisis, there are 725,000 unemployed and 1,150,000 underemployed Australians who, with the right training, would love to have these roles. “It explains why wages growth is dead – too many temporary work visas for this stage of the economic cycle,” Koukoulas said.
    It’s not just the number of temporary migrants that affects wages. The Coalition’s migration policies actually encourage employers in certain geographic areas and some industries to pay temporary migrants a much lower wage than what Australians would earn doing the same job.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/do-we-want-migrants-to-return-in-the-same-numbers-the-answer-is-no-20200501-p54p2q.html

    So you see, she is NOT arguing against permanent, skilled migration, but she is arguing hosting 2.1 million temporary visa holders (june 2019 figure) is just a few too many, given our large pool of Australian unemployed.

    Read the article and be enlightened.

  26. I know I’m repeating myself, but I really think that Morrison will have to revise his harsh attitude towards NZers if he wants full cooperation from PM Ardern.

    It’s expected the meeting will advance early discussions on a so-called “trans-Tasman bubble” that would allow the relaxation of border restrictions between the citizens of two countries and allies.

  27. Oooops!

    Nauroze Anees
    @ForLovenFreedom
    · 1h

    I recieved this sms from the Govt, asking me to download the #COVIDー19 Spying App — So the Govt can “keep me safe” & “ease restrictions”

    My every movement literally gets monitored by CCTV in #ArbitraryDetention, while im confined to a cage

    How bizzare can they get!

  28. Koukoulas is correct. In the long term immigration creates more jobs than it takes. But in the short term immigration in excess of the capacity of the nation to supply new housing, schools, roads etc puts upward pressure on infrastructure and asset prices, while we take time to absorb those immigrants into the workforce.

    So the short term effects of too high immigration are lower wages and higher house prices. Imagine what would happen if we had a cabinet full of selfish old men with large, secure taxpayer funded salaries and a hefty portfolio of investment properties. They might run immigration policy as a tool to push up house prices, rather than a rational part of economic policy.

  29. Rex Douglassays:
    Monday, May 4, 2020 at 4:59 pm
    Sir Henry Parkes @ #1087 Monday, May 4th, 2020 – 4:18 pm

    In the 1930s my grandfather was worried by reports that known existing coal reserves would run out, probably not in his lifetime, but probably in his children’s. With coal being the main driver of energy back then and with no talk of global warming, so far as I am aware, you can see why my grandfather was worried this would bring about the collapse of civilisation as we knew it.
    All I can think is, what a shame my grandfather wasn’t right. If we had passed peak coal and peak oil, at least we wouldn’t be having these pointless debates about the alleged superiority of coal-fired base load and alleged inadequacies of renewable energy when the sun doesn’t shine and the wind doesn’t blow.
    Who cares if there’s enough coal, oil and gas to keep burning for the next 100 years?
    Fossil fuels are killing our environment and we need to stop using them ASAP. For God’s sake leave them all in the earth and let’s start moving towards renewable energy NOW.

    Labor and the LibNats have significant investment in fossil fuels and intend to prop up the industry for many yrs to come.

    If your concern is serious you will vote for someone else.
    ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
    Rex, I do not need advice from you about who to vote for.
    My party, the ALP, does not have as strong a position as I would like on renewable energy, but a renewables policy will either be implemented by a Labor government or not at all. Its current goal of zero-emissions by 2050 is at least a start.
    There are many like me inside the Labor Party and we will continue to push for a lower emissions policy. Coal lovers are a minority inside Labor and they will continue to diminish.
    By the way Rex, state which party you think people should vote for. Shy Greens do not impress me.
    Also Rex, it’d be a change if you attempted some constructive discussion instead of just taking shots at people.

  30. Barney, :population is projected to be about 330 million by 2050 and that is nearing it’s expected peak, after which they think it will start to decline, so your simplistic nonsense …’

    The ecological damage done as the population increases will not be rectified as the population hits it ‘peak’ and then starts to decrease. Take for example, the Javanese Rhino has only just become extinct, how will that come back? Environmental damage is one way with no return.

  31. Someone wrote that it’s time to moth bowl coal, and it took me quite an effort to realise he meant “mothball” it.

  32. RD

    EM by-election was discussed on the latest episode of Insiders (from around the 46 minute mark).

    https://iview.abc.net.au/show/insiders?gclid=EAIaIQobChMI78m_nNOZ6QIVhJSPCh0TZAZEEAAYASAAEgJQkfD_BwE&gclsrc=aw.ds

    It included a presentation and analysis by Antony Green.

    Speers relayed that Mark Kenny said there was some local unrest at the local Labor level that a normal preselection ballot was not taking place. Also, Michael Pilbrow, president of the Yass Valley Labor branch had expressed an interest in running.

    Niki Savva opined Albanese would be praying for Barilaro to be the candidate and that the best Coalition candidate to win the seat is Constance.

    Here is a 2018 profile of Pilbrow in the local newspaper. He doesn’t seem to be a “hack”.

    Michael Pilbrow is the ‘Outstanding Business Leader’ for the Yass Valley in 2018
    https://www.yasstribune.com.au/story/5610807/better-together-leadership/

  33. Sir Henry Parkes @ #1123 Monday, May 4th, 2020 – 5:30 pm

    Rex Douglassays:
    Monday, May 4, 2020 at 4:59 pm
    Sir Henry Parkes @ #1087 Monday, May 4th, 2020 – 4:18 pm

    In the 1930s my grandfather was worried by reports that known existing coal reserves would run out, probably not in his lifetime, but probably in his children’s. With coal being the main driver of energy back then and with no talk of global warming, so far as I am aware, you can see why my grandfather was worried this would bring about the collapse of civilisation as we knew it.
    All I can think is, what a shame my grandfather wasn’t right. If we had passed peak coal and peak oil, at least we wouldn’t be having these pointless debates about the alleged superiority of coal-fired base load and alleged inadequacies of renewable energy when the sun doesn’t shine and the wind doesn’t blow.
    Who cares if there’s enough coal, oil and gas to keep burning for the next 100 years?
    Fossil fuels are killing our environment and we need to stop using them ASAP. For God’s sake leave them all in the earth and let’s start moving towards renewable energy NOW.

    Labor and the LibNats have significant investment in fossil fuels and intend to prop up the industry for many yrs to come.

    If your concern is serious you will vote for someone else.
    ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
    Rex, I do not need advice from you about who to vote for.
    My party, the ALP, does not have as strong a position as I would like on renewable energy, but a renewables policy will either be implemented by a Labor government or not at all. Its current goal of zero-emissions by 2050 is at least.
    There are many like me inside the Labor Party and and we will continue to push for a lower emissions policy. Coal lovers are a minority inside Labor and they will continue to diminish.
    By the way Rex, state which party you think people should vote for. Shy Greens do not impress me.
    Also Rex, it’d be a change if you attempted some constructive discussion instead of just taking shots at people.

    It seems you suffer from selective morality.

    Who do I vote for ?
    I get as much information as I can about the candidates on my ballot paper and preference them from worst to least worst.

  35. Oil and gas have other uses that using them as fuel. It can be used as feedstock for plastics, dyes, fertilisers, ashphelt…….

    The next generation will be scratching their heads wondering why we burnt so much of it.

  37. Guardian

    My colleague Paul Karp has been looking at the submissions to the so-called ‘sports rorts’ Senate inquiry, including the suggestion that the program could be saved from constitutional challenge by being rebadged as a coronavirus stimulus scheme.

  38. Abul Rizvi

    Will the world population be in decline within fifty years?

    https://insidestory.org.au/will-the-world-population-be-in-decline-within-fifty-years/

    Author’s bio:

    Abul Rizvi was a senior official in the Department of Immigration from the early 1990s to 2007 when he left as Deputy Secretary. He was awarded the Public Service Medal and the Centenary Medal for services to development and implementation of immigration policy, including in particular the reshaping of Australia’s intake to focus on skilled migration. He is currently doing a PhD on Australia’s immigration policies.

  43. This is going to sound partisan and mean but I am not sure that Andrew Constance is ready emotionally to take on the gig of Federal Member. I’m actually an admirereof his comments and bravery. But, representing the broader community needs someone focussed and commited and ready. I’m not sure that weeks after the bushfire experience he’s the right candidate.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a1RB2LcE_-4

  44. Eventually pealk oil theory says we will have dwindling oil supplies, and will need to have either moved to some other energy source, or pay a very high price for it. The fact that oil demand and price has dropped due to a one off market disruption, has nothing to do with peak oil, and has not invalidated the theory.

    Significant oil and gas reserves will be stranded. We aren’t that far from having e-Vehicles price competitive with ICE, but with far fewer running costs and a fuel that literally can be collected locally. What kind of moronic economy would continue to rely on expensive oil and gas for transport when there is a cheaper better alternative. Smart well led economies have already started this transition. We are country almost as stupid as we are cruel so expect us to be last.

  47. From my limited amount of research so far on McBain she seems ok…. which means if she wins she’ll probably be hidden away with Ged never to be seen of again so as to not outshine the likes of Marles and Bowen…

  48. Rex Douglas says
    It seems you suffer from selective morality.

    Who do I vote for ?
    I get as much information as I can about the candidates on my ballot paper and preference them from worst to least worst.
    ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
    Don’t you dare tell me how moral or otherwise I am.
    I have marched against the war in Vietnam, demonstrated against apartheid at a rugby match and have been interrogated by the Israeli police about my journalism in the occupied Palestinian territories.
    The choice at Australian elections is between a Coalition and a Labor government. I know which one is more likely to progress towards a zero-emissions economy. That is why I vote 1 Labor and 2 Greens.
    Selecting “the least worst to vote for” is a waste of time and reflects a sense of hopelessness about implementing meaningful change.

  49. Kristy McBain better perform for Albo’s sake. Having lived in Queanbeyan I am not sure she’s the best fit for that end of the electorate. A lot of these captain’s picks are fizzers.

  50. lizzie says:
    Monday, May 4, 2020 at 5:44 pm
    Guardian

    My colleague Paul Karp has been looking at the submissions to the so-called ‘sports rorts’ Senate inquiry, including the suggestion that the program could be saved from constitutional challenge by being rebadged as a coronavirus stimulus scheme.

    Morrison was preparing a covid-19 stimulus when ‘sports rorts’ happened prior to the 2019 election? That would be some foresight!

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