Bega Valley Shire mayor Kristy McBain has been anointed by Anthony Albanese as Labor’s candidate for the Eden-Monaro by-election, despite the fact that a designated nominations period had yet to expire. The Nationals have justified their optimism by providing The Australian ($) with an internal poll conducted immediately after Mike Kelly’s retirement announcement on Thursday, the paper’s report of which begins thus: “NSW Deputy Premier John Barilaro would win the Eden-Monaro by-election if he chooses to stand” (UPDATE: See account of weekend developments at the bottom of the post). This fact turns out to have been established by a 52-48 lead over Kristy McBain, and primary votes that have Barilaro leading hypothetical Liberal candidate Jim Molan by 30% to 21%, with McBain on 35% and Greens candidate Patrick McGinlay on 8%.
However, a report by David Crowe of the Age/Herald ($) suggests state Transport Minister and Bega MP Andrew Constance has been responsive to colleagues’ suggestions he should seek Liberal preselection, and Barilaro has said he will not run if Constance does. Furthermore, “some state sources said there was still a chance both men would pull back from the contest”. In that case, it would seem Fiona Kotvojs, who ran at the election last year, would get another run for the Liberals, and the Nationals would presumably go back to being uncompetitive. Candidacies of either or both of Barilaro and Constance respectively raise the prospect of state by-elections for the seats of Monaro (Nationals margin 11.6%) and Bega (Liberal margin 6.9%), neither of which are unloseable by the recent historic standards of by-elections.
In other news, Roy Morgan has conducted its occasional exercise of publishing the latest results of its federal voting polling, which these days it keeps to itself except when it believes it has identified a newsworthy angle to the results. Onthis occasion its a forceful swing to the Coalition that was missed by Newspoll, such that it now leads 51.5-48.5 after trailing 53-47 in polling from mid-March (compared with 51-49 from the Newspoll of the time). On the primary vote, the Coalition was up seven to 43.5%, Labor down three to 33%, the Greens up half to 11.5% and One Nation down one to 3%. Among the unanswered questions are what impact an apparent chopping and changing of survey methods may have had, with this latest result said to combine phone and online polling for a sample of 2806 over the two weekends just past. Many others besides have been canvassed by Kevin Bonham.
Then there’s the latest effort from Dynata for the Institute of Public Affairs, this time concerning coronavirus restrictions, which I’m not going to say anything about except that it’s out there. Among the questions respondents were invited to agree or disagree with was the following: “There should be an immediate easing of petty restrictions with appropriate social distancing in place”. If I were completing such a survey, my reaction to this question would be to recognise that I was being manipulated and refuse to complete it, and I suspect I’m not alone.
UPDATE (4/5/20): Conflicting signals on the John Barilaro front this morning, courtesy of apparently separate sources both said to be close to him. The Sydney Morning Herald ($) reported overnight that Barilaro would formally announce his intention not to run this morning, but The Australian ($) has been told that this is wrong and that Barilaro is still considering his position. The Herald reports claims from Liberals that Crosby Textor internal polling shows Andrew Constance would win the seat in canter, and that the state Liberals consider Constance’s seat of Bega to be easier to defend at a by-election than Barilaro’s seat of Monaro, which might fall to Shooters Fishers and Farmers or such like. Barilaro and Constance are apparently both on the record saying they will drop out if the other runs rather than expose the state government to two by-elections, which merely raises the question of which claim takes precedence.
Assantdj
All Scomo and friends are planning is more business tax cuts and more “reforms” to industrial relations. They are a one trick pony. And there is a very good chance their “suppression” strategy will backfire on them resulting in another lockdown and more economic harm.
C@tmomma says:
Monday, May 4, 2020 at 1:29 pm
I don’t think I’ve said anything about the issues michael has been discussing. Although in the past I have highlighted the stupidity of losing a billion dollars. Apart from that, Victorian transport infrastructure isn’t one of my ‘things’.
Grasping for anything that might seem to make a point, Buce?
https://arena.gov.au/news/world-first-project-to-turn-biogas-from-sewage-into-hydrogen-and-graphite/
All technology startups have low share prices. Its one of those things about being in a country where investors are technologically illiterate and lazy.
Buce:’major global fuel source to power vehicles and smelt steel and be produced by wind and solar then a vast amount of wind and solar purely dedicated to the single task needs to be built over and above the huge amounts of wind and solar that will be needed to replace current and new demand for domestic and industrial electricity. The numbers for quantities, capital expenditures and power prices are, what’s the word, unsustainable.’
Well if it is unsustainable with renewals for electrolysis, then it is less sustainable using fossil fuels.
New renewables are cheaper than new coal fired power stations. We get cheap electricity from coal because the power stations were built decades ago with government money. They had long term coal supply contracts and other infrastructure such ash pits were also built years ago. Many are nearing the end of their economic lives and the rehabilitation costs have not yet been included in the price of the electricity they use (Hazelwood is reported as costing over $1b to dismantle).
If there is to be a hydrogen producing industry, it will be based on renewables.
CC
The other benefit of the Hazer process is that it produces Graphite which has commercial value thereby reducing the overall cost of hydrogen production. It does use natural gas as the main source of methane.
The Hazer process fits nicely into Ross Garnaut’s vision for Australia as a “Superpower in a post carbon world”.
The pandemic, which has resulted in an observable drop in carbon emissions, has created an opportunity for the development of a hydrogen industry in the recovery phase of the Australian economy.
Here is a short vid on the actual process:
https://youtu.be/7C4QUqynGAc
Bucephalus @ #993 Monday, May 4th, 2020 – 11:58 am
You’re only out by a factor of 100 or so. The last price (so far today) is 38 cents a share, or in decimal terms, $0.38. At $0.0038 the ASX would probably de-list them.
Cud Chewer says:
Monday, May 4, 2020 at 1:37 pm
Ever seen a Consultant give its client a report that they didn’t want to hear?
Lots of coulds and maybes and, by the way, USD $70 billion of other people’s money, thanks very much.
I’m still waiting for Peak Oil.
So the meatworks is not named because it donates to the labor party, yet the school is named to counter Tehan’s comments.
What a mess.
Boerwar @ #983 Monday, May 4th, 2020 – 1:48 pm
This is a classic example of conservative projection.
Bu do:’Although in the past I have highlighted the stupidity of losing a billion dollars. ‘
And I agree with you MO’B should never have signed the side letter. He used Victorian taxpayers’ money to lay a grenade for the incoming Labor government, which went to the election saying they would not build the EW link.
The polls were showing the Libs were going to lose the election and the election was touted as a referendum on the link.
Knowing the Libs were probably going to lose, he still threw a billion dollars of taxpayers money away for a political advantage.
As I said to him personally at the last election, I would not vote for him as he should not be anywhere near a chequebook accessing OP’s money.
It was no coincidence, the recipients of the $1b were delighted by this and I assume would ‘reward’ him in future to show their gratitude.
By the way, the $1b has grown over time. It first started with $600m. I think they added things like property acquisions, which is still an asset to inflate the $600m. It also included a loan facility fee of some $80m, which was used when the loan were directed to other projects.
Taylormade @ #1005 Monday, May 4th, 2020 – 2:16 pm
This one ?
https://www.9news.com.au/national/coronavirus-victoria-update-state-records-more-covid19-cases-links-to-cedar-meats-cluster/32a5d45e-a518-4a75-914b-7a9be785d659
Not as good as michael claiming Palaszczuk was on a ” cruise ” when catching the ferry to straddie, but still good
No new WA cases.
Another 6 months of lockdown to go?
Taylormade @ #1002 Monday, May 4th, 2020 – 2:16 pm
Just when you think Federal Labor is hopeless, you get a reminder of how even more useless the Vic Liberals are.
Taylormade:’So the meatworks is not named because it donates to the labor party.’
Obviously you know the name of the meat works because not all donate to the Labor party. (Eg, the one in Warnambool that Naphine gave $180m to).
So spill the beans, which one is it?
Thx VP. I thought Taylormade was the only one in the know.
Looks like he was making that up.
Great work Angus Taylormade 😉
vote1julia
Good video that actually leaves in a lot of useful detail.
What they’re saying is that some of their catalyst (the iron oxide) ends up as nano particles and mixed with the graphite so the graphite is only 80-95% pure. It doesn’t explain what the economics of purifying the graphite are, or what the rate of iron oxide consumption is. I suspect they need to purify the graphite to recover more of the iron oxide.
Its also a fairly high temperature process (900C) and processes that work at this temperature tend to require expensive materials and have maintenance issues – but a lot of this is well worked out industrial chemistry.
I’m sure it will play well politically given its inputs. So well worth keeping an eye on. Btw there’s a mountain of graphite that’s going to go into batteries.
“Another 6 months of lockdown to go?”
Only for people who make shit up.
PeeBee @ #1004 Monday, May 4th, 2020 – 2:18 pm
The E/W link deal the Vic Libs proposed had a cost/benefit ratio of 0.45
It was a dud deal.
Andrews should just fund it and toll it as a break even project.
michael @ 1:07 pm
Corio do you remember the press conference when Andrews was sweating like he had just run the Olympic Marathon in Sept 2014
More or less. Andrews was doing the right thing, but for the wrong reason, which is actually causing him grief now. He came around to opposing the scheme to avoid the crude wedge that the Coalition had devised in an attempt to engineer Greens victories over the ALP in inner suburban seats.
Because he and Pallas weren’t opposed to the road as a concept, they couldn’t provide a credible reason for stopping it. If they had noted that major motorway projects have never “solved” any traffic congestion problem, and had clearly prioritised sustainable transport protects as alternatives, they would have been on very firm ground, then and now.
The lack of a coherent conceptual underpinning of their decision is now exposed because people can legitimately ask, if not the east-west toll road, then why the north-east one, or the forthcoming road eyesore on the lower reaches of the Maribyrnong River, feeding more car traffic into the city?
Danama,
Fat fingers on the phone. You’re most welcome to ask William to edit the post if it exercises your sensibilities too much.
Pegasus @ #978 Monday, May 4th, 2020 – 1:34 pm
Give them a chance, Pegasus. KKK got lambasted for raising the issue of migration policy at all.
It will take time for Labor to be mature enough to have a debate about population policy – of which migration policy is only one part, and environmental sustainability is another part.
Although it is true that some people conflate the issues of migration and population – sometimes as a means of gagging or derailing a debate they don’t want to have.
When they really get cornered, they also throw in the issue of racism.
Bucephalus @ #1004 Monday, May 4th, 2020 – 2:15 pm
“… wishing for …” rather than “… waiting for …”, I think.
Actually the cost of cancelling the EW link is a bit more complex than some are simplistically claiming.
https://insidestory.org.au/the-law-of-large-numbers/
“Victorians will be relieved to hear that the real number is nothing like $1.3 billion. Publicly available information shows that the cost directly incurred by cancelling the contracts was $527,600,000 — a lot of money, but less than half the Age’s figure.”
“When the Liberal government signed the contracts for the project, it claimed East West Link would produce $1.40 in benefits for every dollar invested — a $1.5 billion net benefit overall. If that figure was correct then cancelling was a horrible waste. But the benefit–cost ratio was hotly debated, with critics saying it included all sorts of rubbery numbers. One transport-modelling expert I interviewed for my research on the project says it included assumptions “you could drive a truck through.” And then there were the nebulous “wider economic benefits” added in to get to $1.40 — the benefits of agglomeration (businesses being located closely together in the CBD), for example — the kinds of thing not normally included in benefit–cost analyses by other agencies in Australia.
Transport academics and finance experts assessed the true benefit–cost ratio at more like 0.8, or 80 cents for every dollar invested. If the state government was stumping up $2 billion in capital for the project, the loss would be $400 million. To this we must add the cost of operating the road. The commercial structure for East West Link would have seen the government pay the private sector to make the road available. These “availability fees” would be offset — but only partially — by tolls collected by the government. Financial experts projected in 2014 that if the average toll were $5.67 per trip (roughly comparable to other tolls in Melbourne) then the annual gap between toll revenue and these availability payments would be minus $251 million per year — and that would continue for decades. Suddenly $528 million doesn’t sound too bad.”
Roads are almost always a bad investment. The reason is because roads never deliver the congestion busting benefits they claim. They always fill with cars – right up to the point where it becomes just as fast to take public transport. If you want to take congestion off roads, the way to do it is to make public transport faster.
Obviously Jacinda doesn’t read CC posts if she is prepared to discuss Trans Tasman bubble.
Also NZ desperately needs Aussie tourist dollars.
Corio @ #1014 Monday, May 4th, 2020 – 2:31 pm
Another PT fanatic.
PT is important. No-one argues it isn’t, but’s not the be all and end all.
Proper road infrastructure is just as important but dud financial deals like the Libs E/W link proposition was simply a deal that had to be scrapped.
Bob
“Obviously Jacinda doesn’t read CC posts if she is prepared to discuss Trans Tasman bubble.”
What a load of nonsense. Of course she is prepared to discuss it. However she is not going to allow free and unfettered travel if there is still virus in our country – you can bet your house on that. NZ has paid a high cost for elimination. Its not going to risk that.
Cud Chewer @ #997 Monday, May 4th, 2020 – 2:01 pm
….Mr Albanese said today.
Player One says:
Monday, May 4, 2020 at 2:34 pm
It’s you Ecofascists who have been predicting and hoping for Peak Oil for many decades now.
Rex:’Andrews should just fund it and toll it as a break even project.’
Even if it could make it break even, why would you want it to go ahead?
Is this official Green’s policy’s?
Good to see a public apology from VicPol re the disgraceful leak of Laidleys photo.
It’s very sad that a handful of rogues can tarnish the force.
Abattoirs are designed to spread respiratory viruses.
Lots of tight spaces with people literally having to brush past each other between machinery and dead animals. Lots of humidity. Lots of enclosed spaces with recirculating air. And of course people who are working hard and breathing hard. Its a recipe for exactly what happened in Victoria.
(And in the US, the hacking-dead-animals-to-bits industry is claiming a lot of human lives).
“It’s you Ecofascists who have been predicting and hoping for Peak Oil for many decades now.”
As they say, the stone age didn’t end because we ran out of stone..
mundo
ffs email Albo.
BOB LYNCH
Obviously BOB LYNCH doesn’t read what Jacinda said.
.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/may/04/australia-coronavirus-live-updates-nsw-victoria-qld-schools-morrison-latest-news-update
Rex Douglas @ 2:39 pm
Another PT fanatic
Another ad hominem argument.
It’s you Ecofascists who have been predicting and hoping for Peak Oil for many decades now.
One day they will be right.
PeeBee says:
Monday, May 4, 2020 at 2:56 pm
When?
Peak Oil has been forecast for over a century now.
Doesn’t it seem more likely now we will run out of demand before we run out of oil?
Didn’t conventional crude oil peak around 2005? with shale gas, tar sands etc picking up the slack?
And who is ‘hoping’ for peak oil? All the doco’s on it paint a picture of absolute collapse
When? FIIK. But it will happened as it is being consumed and not being made.
Rex Douglas says:
Monday, May 4, 2020 at 2:47 pm
“Good to see a public apology from VicPol re the disgraceful leak of Laidleys photo.
It’s very sad that a handful of rogues can tarnish the force.“
Unless you’re George Pell or any Catholic for that matter- then you deserve everything including over a year in jail despite being innocent.
This should be blindingly obvious but the Greens progressives just don’t get and most of them don’t much care either.
The people who migrate to Australia do not come here to reduce our CO2 emissions, reduce our housing footprint, reduce our impacts on water use, reduce our impacts on coasts, reduce our soil use, reduce our forests use, reduce the spread of the built environment.
Nor should we expect them to.
Double the population, double the damage.
2005 75m barrels of crude oil per day production. 2015 79m barrels of crude oil per day.
Bonza says:
Monday, May 4, 2020 at 3:00 pm
“And who is ‘hoping’ for peak oil? All the doco’s on it paint a picture of absolute collapse“
Why do you think that they paint that picture?
The Baltic Dry Index is still looking a bit crook.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/baltic
From:
Personally I think there can be a fairly rapid transition, but I don’t think there will be. I also don’t think Saudi Arabia is making a mistake, killing off as much shale investment in the US as it possibly can seems a very sound midterm strategy. And for Russia too I think.
A senior constable has been suspended over photos taken of former North Melbourne coach Dean Laidley while he was in custody on stalking allegations.
Deputy Police Commissioner Shane Patton has called the conduct appalling, saying the conduct could result in a criminal charge that carries a potential two-year jail term.
Boerwar @ #1040 Monday, May 4th, 2020 – 1:02 pm
Simplistic nonsense!
Barnett:’Simplistic nonsense!’
Interested in how you think adding more people improves the environment.