Three-cornered contestants

As candidates jockey for the early running in Eden-Monaro, the results of a reported Nationals internal poll, plus a couple of other things to be dubious about.

Bega Valley Shire mayor Kristy McBain has been anointed by Anthony Albanese as Labor’s candidate for the Eden-Monaro by-election, despite the fact that a designated nominations period had yet to expire. The Nationals have justified their optimism by providing The Australian ($) with an internal poll conducted immediately after Mike Kelly’s retirement announcement on Thursday, the paper’s report of which begins thus: “NSW Deputy Premier John Barilaro would win the Eden-Monaro by-election if he chooses to stand” (UPDATE: See account of weekend developments at the bottom of the post). This fact turns out to have been established by a 52-48 lead over Kristy McBain, and primary votes that have Barilaro leading hypothetical Liberal candidate Jim Molan by 30% to 21%, with McBain on 35% and Greens candidate Patrick McGinlay on 8%.

However, a report by David Crowe of the Age/Herald ($) suggests state Transport Minister and Bega MP Andrew Constance has been responsive to colleagues’ suggestions he should seek Liberal preselection, and Barilaro has said he will not run if Constance does. Furthermore, “some state sources said there was still a chance both men would pull back from the contest”. In that case, it would seem Fiona Kotvojs, who ran at the election last year, would get another run for the Liberals, and the Nationals would presumably go back to being uncompetitive. Candidacies of either or both of Barilaro and Constance respectively raise the prospect of state by-elections for the seats of Monaro (Nationals margin 11.6%) and Bega (Liberal margin 6.9%), neither of which are unloseable by the recent historic standards of by-elections.

In other news, Roy Morgan has conducted its occasional exercise of publishing the latest results of its federal voting polling, which these days it keeps to itself except when it believes it has identified a newsworthy angle to the results. Onthis occasion its a forceful swing to the Coalition that was missed by Newspoll, such that it now leads 51.5-48.5 after trailing 53-47 in polling from mid-March (compared with 51-49 from the Newspoll of the time). On the primary vote, the Coalition was up seven to 43.5%, Labor down three to 33%, the Greens up half to 11.5% and One Nation down one to 3%. Among the unanswered questions are what impact an apparent chopping and changing of survey methods may have had, with this latest result said to combine phone and online polling for a sample of 2806 over the two weekends just past. Many others besides have been canvassed by Kevin Bonham.

Then there’s the latest effort from Dynata for the Institute of Public Affairs, this time concerning coronavirus restrictions, which I’m not going to say anything about except that it’s out there. Among the questions respondents were invited to agree or disagree with was the following: “There should be an immediate easing of petty restrictions with appropriate social distancing in place”. If I were completing such a survey, my reaction to this question would be to recognise that I was being manipulated and refuse to complete it, and I suspect I’m not alone.

UPDATE (4/5/20): Conflicting signals on the John Barilaro front this morning, courtesy of apparently separate sources both said to be close to him. The Sydney Morning Herald ($) reported overnight that Barilaro would formally announce his intention not to run this morning, but The Australian ($) has been told that this is wrong and that Barilaro is still considering his position. The Herald reports claims from Liberals that Crosby Textor internal polling shows Andrew Constance would win the seat in canter, and that the state Liberals consider Constance’s seat of Bega to be easier to defend at a by-election than Barilaro’s seat of Monaro, which might fall to Shooters Fishers and Farmers or such like. Barilaro and Constance are apparently both on the record saying they will drop out if the other runs rather than expose the state government to two by-elections, which merely raises the question of which claim takes precedence.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,298 comments on “Three-cornered contestants”

Comments Page 25 of 26
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  1. nath @ #1197 Monday, May 4th, 2020 – 5:02 pm

    Danama Papers says:
    Monday, May 4, 2020 at 6:32 pm

    For fans of Billions (and if you’re not, you should be), the first episode of the new season is now available on Stan.
    _______
    Did you catch who was doing all that smash work with the hammer at the end of the episode? Was that Wendy? I missed something obviously. Still, it’s great to have it back. #TeamSacker

    I’m yet to watch it. Later on tonight I’ll be checking it out.

  2. sprocket_ says Monday, May 4, 2020 at 6:45 pm

    Speaking of NZ holidays, I have fond memories.
    When Mrs Sprocket and I were wanting to start a family, we were having a bit of trouble getting going. So off to NZ for a holiday, and the hot springs at Rotorua proved to be just the tonic for loosening up the important parts for baby making.
    Will certainly go back this year if the bubble descends..

    So we can expect to see photos of a brand new baby sprocket some nine months after?

  3. Peg, any Green candidate for E-M yet?

    What is the process? Rank and file? Facebook poll? HQ selected candidate?

    Is it true Leigh Rhiannon is making a comeback?

  5. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-04/new-zealand-pm-to-join-australian-covid-19-cabinet-talks/12211878

    Quote from the New Zealand’s Director-General of Health:

    Dr Bloomfield said if the border controls were lifted, the two countries would need to be confident they could trace any new COVID-19 cases.

    “One of the things that will be very important if there is an agreement … that we are working very closely with our Australian counterparts about, is what those key public health pillars would need to be, around how we are testing for, identifying, and isolating cases and contacts,” he said.

    “[As well as] our position around contact tracing and our ability to exchange information smoothly to ensure any contacts could be followed up if they’ve travelled in either direction.”

  6. BK says:
    Monday, May 4, 2020 at 7:10 pm

    Danama Papers
    I have been bingeing on Billions up to S4E3 and found it most enjoyable.
    ________
    What am I? A fucking Pancake Eater ?!?

  9. Sprocket

    All that time and money spent taking love potion number 9 to bed when you could’ve just taken a jar of sulphur

  14. Tonight’s Qanda looks too political to be insightful, in my view.

    QandA@QandA
    ·
    10h
    Tonight #QandA is thinking about the post-COVID world order with @DaveSharma, @SenatorWong, @mfullilove, and @PearsonElaine. Tune-in at 9.35pm AEST on @ABCTV and iview.

  15. “shellbell says:
    Monday, May 4, 2020 at 7:26 pm
    The liberals have no campaign money was one of the political myths of 2019”

    They certainly had Clive’s $60 million contribution.

  19. Poroti

    “I’m still trying to work out what Scrott’s angle is re bring in Ardern for the National cabinet meeting. NZ CMO equivalent has mentioned several times he is in almost daily touch with his Australian counter parts. A couple of ministers have said they have been speaking with their Australian counterparts so it is not as if there would be any mystery about what each other are doing and are aiming for.”

    That has me intrigued too. I sometimes wonder if the reluctance to mention the word elimination (even in the states that are clearly going to eliminate the virus) isn’t collective stupidity, but is actually rehearsed. NZ’s CMO has made no secret that their aim is to eliminate the virus. Its clearly being discussed behind closed doors.

    Now I can’t see Scrot accepting Ardern unless he has a marketing angle on this. Having said this, Ardern is a canny politician also. In interviews today she’s chosen her words carefully. She said that reopening the border cannot be done unless it does not threaten public health. Clearly her objective will be to encourage Australia to eliminate the virus so that such a opening of borders is actually possible. I can’t see the alternative – testing and quarantine – is going to work for ordinary tourists.

  20. Incidentally I was just talking to my friend in Auckland. He’s really happy they had zero cases today. Level 2 means he gets to go back to work.

  21. FilR

    “Dr Bloomfield said if the border controls were lifted, the two countries would need to be confident they could trace any new COVID-19 cases.

    “One of the things that will be very important if there is an agreement … that we are working very closely with our Australian counterparts about, is what those key public health pillars would need to be, around how we are testing for, identifying, and isolating cases and contacts,” he said.”

    This only works if you can guarantee to find the source of infection in every case. Once we return to having crowded malls and crowded trains this is almost impossible. What then? I don’t think NZ is going to throw away its virus free status. And btw, right where you need it the most, which is in crowded spaces, the app won’t record most potential contacts.

    Ordinary detective work, going through hours of CCTV footage, pulling bank records and phone carrier records and literally physically tracing every step – that’s quite effective. But it aint fool proof.

  22. Another thing that intrigues me. Now that the government has purchased Twiggy’s 10 million tests. Not a word about how they are going to use them.

  23. Cud Chewer

    Now I can’t see Scrot accepting Ardern unless he has a marketing angle on this

    That is my first and last assumption as to what he wants. It is just what the angle could possibly be. Guess ‘all will be revealed’ tomorrow.

  24. Tasmania zero again.. four days in a row.

    It gives some hint as to how Victoria might behave once the final cases of the abattoir cluster are settled.

    The next battleground is Queensland.

  25. poroti

    Scrot wants to talk about all the bucks we’ll get out of restarting travel to NZ. The details won’t matter. Only the announceables.

  26. I don’t have a problem with Ardern joining the national cabinet. I think it’s a great bilateral initiative, esp if it can lead to regional efforts to responding to future pandemic emergencies.

  27. The COVIDSafe legislation amends the Privacy Act, and introduces draconian provisions – up to 5 years in the slammer – if you do things like:

    – make your staff use the app
    – insist on the app being used to enter premises
    – various other misuses, like releasing the information outside Australia

  28. Ardern’s presence gives Morrison the opportunity to talk about the prospect of restriction free International travel starting up .

  29. sprocket_ @ #1224 Monday, May 4th, 2020 – 6:15 pm

    The COVIDSafe legislation amends the Privacy Act, and introduces draconian provisions – up to 5 years in the slammer – if you do things like:

    – make your staff use the app
    – insist on the app being used to enter premises
    – various other misuses, like releasing the information outside Australia

    So much for Morrison’s IF;

    you want to go to footy, you need the App;

    you want to go to the pub, you need the App.

  30. Confessions

    The two countries are already in constant touch at a senior level. So why the need now for an Ardern invite ?

  31. sprocket_ says:
    Monday, May 4, 2020 at 8:15 pm
    The COVIDSafe legislation amends the Privacy Act, and introduces draconian provisions – up to 5 years in the slammer – if you do things like:
    – make your staff use the app
    – insist on the app being used to enter premises
    – various other misuses, like releasing the information outside Australia

    I wonder where this leaves companies like Coles – the statement on their website says “Coles is encouraging all customers and team members to download the Health Department’s COVIDSafe app.”

    There can be a fine line between encouragement and coercion, e.g. if a store manager interpreted this to tell staff they should download the app or there was some naming and shaming going on.

    The COVIDSafe app
    1st May, 2020
    Coles is encouraging all customers and team members to download the Health Department’s COVIDSafe app. The app is only designed to alert users if they have had close contact (15 minutes or more within 1.5 metres) with another person who tests positive for COVID-19.

    We have now completed more than 100 million customer transactions since the outbreak of COVID-19 and whilst Supermarkets adhering to the Government’s social distancing guidelines are considered low risk, we believe the app will provide an even safer environment by allowing any potential exposure situations to be identified and managed as quickly as possible. You can read more about the app here.

    https://www.coles.com.au/customernotice

  32. Any astronomers on here ? If i wanted to see this meteor shower tonight what time and what direction do i look ?
    Am in SW Vic on the coast.

  35. poroti:

    What’s the harm in inviting NZ to join the national cabinet? I honestly don’t see the problem.

  37. citizen that to me looks fine.

    As long as they’re not making it a condition of employment or using their businesses I don’t see a problem.

  40. Taylormade:

    Look east before sunrise for meteors:

    Catching a meteor is a bit like catching buses, you may need to wait for a while, then several may come at once.

    Once you’ve given your eyes a few minutes to adjust, start scanning the sky above the eastern horizon using Jupiter, Saturn and Mars as your signposts, Dr Musgrave says.

    “If you look directly at the radiant the spot where the meteors originate from you won’t see any because the meteor burn starts away from the radiant.”

    “These good signposts make it easier to scan the sky area, where you should start to see the meteors start their burn so it’s going to be potentially easier to pick up the meteors even though you’ve got a bit of moonlight interference.”

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2020-05-04/eta-aquariid-meteor-shower-to-light-up-australian-skies/12194636

  42. What a hoot! Kenny et al getting stuck into Forrest and Stokes for their China stance, complaining that the latter is taking advantage of the fact that WA has only one newspaper. I must be missing something. Love it when billionaires – Murdoch via his Sky News minions – are at each other’s throats.

  43. Brendan O’Connor doing the sword dance around ALP Immigration and Employment policy and KK’s comments on The Project. Heh.

  44. poroti @ #1238 Monday, May 4th, 2020 – 6:37 pm

    Confessions

    No harm but what is the point ?

    There are probably items on the agenda for the meeting which warrant having NZ’s PM there. It’s likely other people have been invited to past national cabinet meetings and have joined without fuss or carry on. I honestly don’t see what the issue is with Ardern being invited.

  45. Bucephalus

    The thing is though she is right. A company I worked for hired ‘Visa people’ who had BSc,BSc Hons to do work that really required Diploma or at most BSc quals. The uber qualified “temporary visa” people all had the aim of becoming “permanent” and so put up with being paid way less than they were worth. What chance did local Diploma and BSc people stand vs them ? Hint, SFA.

    Another negative of that situation was revealed to me when I was brought back for a one month contract. These over qualified but way under paid “visa people” exemplified and old Soviet era joke “They pretend to pay us and we pretend to work” . It was an open joke .

  46. I’ve just seen an advert on Masterchef for people to download a “i2safe” app to maintain social distancing.

    Searching “i2safe” I can only find this twitter entry. Is anyone else aware?

    rajive gulati
    @i2safe
    Startup, incubator & Skill Mission in Gurgaon
    i2 #Skill All #Facilitate #Entrepreneurship
    GurgaonJoined June 2014
    223 Following
    98 Followers
    Tweets
    Tweets & replies
    Media
    Likes
    rajive gulati’s Tweets
    rajive gulati Retweeted

    UNICC
    @unicc_ict
    ·
    May 2
    We enter May highlighting the importance of April’s Goal of the Month #SDG3 – Health and Wellbeing. With solidarity we can defeat #COVID19 and build a better world. Now more than ever, we recognize #tech’s crucial role in ensuring healthcare
    as a human right. #ICT4SDG

  47. Cud Chewer wrote:

    So the app (if the back end were functional) would capture up to 3.2 percent of contacts. Yay!

    Remarks like that are so stupid, they defy logic.

    As long as obsessives with personal agendas – who freely call anyone who disagrees with them fools and idiots – persist in naysaying the app because it is not the method THEY would prefer, then its download numbers will be low.

    Self-fulfilling prophecies and the prophets who push them are not at all smart, or helpful.

    Confusing hatred for ScoMo and his government with criticising everything they do is both dishonest and dangerous.

    99.97% of Australians are uninfected. Therefore they are completely susceptible to the virus, as if it’s back in mid-February or early March.

    It is not over. It has barely started.

    We will NEVER test all 25 million Australians over a short snapshot period no matter how many eminent medical scientists Cud Chewer calls “fools” or “idiots”, or worse. And then test them again a week later; and again a week after that. Give it up as an impossible task.

    We also cannot continue locking down our economy. At this early stage (and yes, it is very early) only a few hundred thousand have lost their jobs, a few thousand small and marginal businesses have got financially sick or gone belly-up.

    Imagine millions of the above. Hundreds of thousands dead… here, not in Europe or America.

    Scoffing at the app is almost a cultural requirement around here.

    Grow up, stop whingeing about non-existent “threats” to your “liberty”, and make a contribution, rather than just heckle from the sidelines.

    The only reason you can do it is because good, brave and smart people have worked hard to protect you: from health workers and medical experts to, yes, politicians. The old rules of drive-by mocking and lazy scepticism have to be suspended.

    Don’t think that because YOU have dodged a bullet this time, the next one won’t get you right between the eyes.

  48. The US President insists on hydroxychloroquine as a sure fire cure for Cordid19 whereas in Australia the Prime Minister has CORVDSafe As his sure fire cure.

    Irresponsible Snake oil salesmen the both of them.

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