After another eventful day in the Eden-Monaro by-election campaign, the first indication of when it might be held courtesy of The Australian: in late June or early July, according to “senior Liberals”, pending advice from the Australian Electoral Commission. This follows Andrew Constance’s shock withdrawal as Liberal candidates two days before state Nationals leader John Barilaro likewise announced he would not run. Constance said his withdrawal was prompted by a Daily Telegraph report that Barilaro had described him to a parliamentary colleague as a “c**t*”. However, The Australian’s report disputes this, citing further Liberal sources saying Constance was “laughing” over the Barilaro development, and the real reason for his withdrawal was a backlash against his candidacy among local party branches. Among the consequences of this is that there will by no state by-election, at least for the time being, in Constance’s seat of Bega.
According to The Australian’s ever-reliable authority on Liberal internal affairs, Niki Savva, internal polling that separately recorded Barilaro winning 52-48 but Constance winning by 60-40 helped convince Scott Morrison to promote a clear run for Constance, in concert with factional powerbroker Alex Hawke. Savva reports that the former result was “rubbery at best, based on a robopoll which put him only slightly ahead even before Labor’s attack ads started”. However, it appeared that none had reckoned on local reaction within the party, where 2019 candidate Fiona Kotvojs remained widely favoured and feelings remained tender over the imposition of Warren Mundine as the candidate in neighbouring Gilmore. Kotjovs now looks the front-runner for a preselection “due to be held on May 22”, with the Nationals remaining undecided as to whether they will make the effort in Barilaro’s absence.
In further Eden-Monaro reading, a piece by Peter Brent in Inside Story features a chart showing Eden-Monaro’s evolution from bellwether to leaning Labor, which has occurred against the trend in New South Wales and in spite of redistributions that have consistently favoured the Liberals. When three decades of accumulated redistribution adjustments are applied to elections past, Labor loses the supposed bellwether seat throughout the period of the Hawke-Keating government. Much of this is down to the present configuration of the seat, which encompasses parts of the Riverina in defiance of the obvious natural boundary of the Snowy Mountains, while excluding the Batemans Bay area that was part of the seat for most of its history, but which now adds a modest degree of Labor ballast to Gilmore.
Can we please keep this thread specific to the Eden-Monaro by-election. The open thread continues here.
Nikki Savva opines on these clowns:
“Can of worms” no longer comes close to describing the situation inside the Coalition over the Eden-Monaro by-election. Try barrel of brown snakes.
The collapse of the campaigns of the two supposed frontrunners, John Barilaro and Andrew Constance, even before they began, partly thanks to their spoiling tactics against one another, has seriously damaged them, smeared egg over Scott Morrison and his numbers man Alex Hawke, and left NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian with a Deputy Premier and a Transport Minister looking foolish, vindictive and/or inept.
Labor leader Anthony Albanese was alerted to Constance’s impending withdrawal with a text message headlined “clusterf..k alert”. Impossible to argue with that.
A few journos have also been left looking dumbstruck, after first assuming Barilaro was a shoo-in, then that Constance was. They never were, although Constance was the government’s best option to snatch the seat from Labor, according to its internal polling, one reason Morrison let it be known he backed his candidacy.
The other of course was the havoc a Barilaro candidacy would have wreaked inside the Coalition.
Morrison’s men made the mistake of thinking Constance would win the preselection, or that there might not be one at all, hoping that any other candidates would get the message not to run. Wrong on all counts.
It has been politics at its most brutal, most farcical and most self-serving for a week now, then just when you thought it couldn’t get any madder, there were reports that Liberal vice-president Teena McQueen was sounding out people to see if they would support a run in the seat by her great friend and former prime minister Tony Abbott. The behaviour will only deepen the despair of voters in the electorate who have been to hell twice this year, once with the fires, then again with COVID-19, who are still living in tents or caravans.
It is simply unforgivable.
I have just been looking at comedian Zoe Coombs-Marr’s list of the 10 funniest things she has seen on the Internet – but this Barilaro-Constance business is way FUNNIER! Truly a clusterfokk. Fokking hilarious! And coming through on the inside rail – Kristy McBain!!!
If one was a voter in the Eden Monaro federal electorate, why would you vote for any Coalition candidate – given the obvious internal stuff ups and grassroots disquiet at having party power brokers wheeling and dealing and taking scant regard for what local party members think about a suitable person to run in the forthcoming by-election? Given all the trauma much of the electorate continues to experience post the recent bush fires, it would not surprise me to see a kick in the teeth for both Liberal and National parties – who parade themselves as caring for the people in the bush – but too often jump to a different tune when it suits large financial backers of the Coalition. Labor, with the help of Greens preferences should have a good chance of holding Eden-Monaro, given the current climate…..is my guess…
“Labor, with the help of Greens preferences should have a good chance of holding Eden-Monaro, given the current climate…..is my guess…”
***
You would think so. Everyone has been understandably distracted by COVID-19 but won’t have forgotten how bad this government is and how woeful their handling of the bushfire crisis was. Things like that cannot and will not be forgotten.
the coalition candidatures…. of Mr Barilaro and Mr Constance…… and their withdrawls show the hatreds within and between both parties……… the excuses given by both are spin and cannot be believed they show why both men are really unsuitable for Public office…….. I suspect this will create huge fault lines within the nsw government. I also guess neither will recontest their seats at the next state election.
This is just the sausage making of politics.
Once preselections are done the majority of voters won’t care.
Saava doing everything that she can to damage the LNP as usual.
William, Could I point out that Eden Monaro has about 115,000 electors, around half of whom live in the Queanbeyan-Palerang Council area, which is centred about 50 km to the west of the Great Dividing Range. The Council area’s eastern boundary is the dividing range.
Much as it pains me to agree with Bucephalus, I think he is correct – most voters won’t be paying too much attention at this stage, and by the time voting day comes along (as much as still two months away), most of the current jockeying will be forgotten.
This by-election is very much line-ball, and there is an argument to made either way.
The Libs could win because:
* It’s a semi-rural seat, of the sort which Labor has recently struggled in;
* The federal government is getting (justifiably) good reviews for their handling of the Covid situation;
* Labor will inevitably lose some of Mike Kelly’s personal vote, and such is the margin that they don’t have much that they are able to lose and still hold the seat.
Still, Labor could win because:
* They’ve picked a good candidate in Kristy McBain (the Bega mayor, who performed well in the bushfires), and the star candidates on the Blue side have fallen away;
* There may well be some residual anti-Morrison feeling in the area from the summer bushfires;
* They will benefit from the usual anti-government swing at by-elections (there’s a good reason why no government has won one for a century), particularly the departure of the sitting member was for the “correct” reasons (ie ill-health, and not scandal).
Given the continuing crisis atmosphere around the pandemic, it’s kinda hard to know what the vibe will be by early July. Presumably some of the shine around Morrison would have worn off, but perhaps enough will stay to push them over the line. Alternatively, people may have wearied of the ongoing restrictions by then (particular in a regional seat like this, where the crisis was never quite so acute as in the cities), and want to take a kick at the government about the crashing economy.
One thing we can be sure is that pundits (here and elsewhere) will be very quick to claim that the result has some of significance (for SloMo, for Albo, for the next election), and then the seat will go with the tide when the next elections comes. by-elections make for great spectator sport, of course, but they are rarely as significant as they are made out to be.
Hugoaugogo: “Much as it pains me to agree with Bucephalus, I think he is correct – most voters won’t be paying too much attention at this stage, and by the time voting day comes along (as much as still two months away), most of the current jockeying will be forgotten.”
I think you are both correct, as long as the Coalition candidate for the seat is a cleanskin: ie, Kotvojs or whoever. The unexpectedly bad result in the Longman by-election in 2018 was presumably caused by the fact that the damaged candidate was still in the race. Constance and Barilaro are gone, and the eventual candidate will benefit to some extent from not being either of them.
Having said all that, my money’s still on a Labor retain. But it’s always been a funny seat: I guess if a seat was ever going to buck the trend of shifting across to the government benches in a by-election, E-M’s probably the one.
The other thing is Eden Monaro tends to be very loyal to its mps …. re electing them again and again
mq
Hack Hendy aside, Eden Monaro has returned above average MPs from both sides for quite some time.
NSW premier won’t castigate feuding MPs
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6748398/nsw-premier-wont-castigate-feuding-mps/?cs=14231&utm_source=website&utm_medium=home&utm_campaign=latestnews
Thanks Yabba – I guess I meant the Snowy Mountains.
“This follows Andrew Constance’s shock withdrawal as Liberal candidates two days before state Nationals leader John Barilaro likewise announced he would not run. ”
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William, shouldn’t that be two days after?
Meher
I think you are both correct, as long as the Coalition candidate for the seat is a cleanskin: ie, Kotvojs or whoever. The unexpectedly bad result in the Longman by-election in 2018 was presumably caused by the fact that the damaged candidate was still in the race. Constance and Barilaro are gone, and the eventual candidate will benefit to some extent from not being either of them.
____________________________
There are some differences. Both Constance and Barilaro had strong local recognition and support. Either was very well placed on a personal level. The guy in Longman was a terrible candidate with terrible baggage. Of course Constance and Barilaro now have the sort of baggage that will not look good. I can’t see that Kotvojs will get any benefit from not being one of them, but that doesn’t mean she is thereby handicapped.
The really interesting issue is the carryover from the bushfires. Eden-Monaro was one of the worst affected areas and there are still plenty of people waiting for the helping hand promised by the Federal government. How that plays out is anyone’s guess, but McBain will have good standing – especially in the far south-east.
Who the fuck is Kotvojs. I’m an EM voter and I’ve never heard of her. Where was she during the bushfire crisis. Kristy was there every day supporting the locals. I don’t think Labor has a worry in fact I’m predicting a landslide to Labor.
I wonder how much polling we’ll get of EM. There doesn’t seem to be much money around for polling and everybody is a bit distracted on top of it, so I suspect not much.
Could be some interest in how the parties campaign in a socially distanced world.
Scummo ratings are good while he is controlled by the State Premiers and Health experts. All he has to do is stick to the script. Only stuff up the public sees is schools.
The L/NP on the other hand is rating much lower than the PM. Based on the Health app, seems most of the population doesn’t trust them.
Because of the behavior of the likes of Dutton, Taylor and Co, I think the electorate will stick with Labor.
As job keeper and jobseeker finishes up, Josh will further alienate a lot of former upper income supporters.
They don’t fuck around in the Bear Pit. Constance has been sacked from Leader of the House possie:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-08/sydney-news-morning-briefing-friday-may-8/12224658
This might be a recollection fault but I thought I read somewhere that Constance wouldn’t resign his state seat to run then if he lost would simply step back into his state seat. If this is right could it be his withdrawal was prompted by someone pointing out that isn’t possible? I.E you can’t be working for a government, state or federal at the time of nomination.
https://citynews.com.au/2020/nichole-overall-in-the-hunt-for-eden-monaro/
Nichole Overall in running for Eden-Monaro?
By CityNews –
May 6, 2020
QUEANBEYAN journalist and the city’s Woman of the Year Nichole Overall has been polled by the Liberal Party as a potential candidate for the federal seat of Eden-Monaro following the shock withdrawal yesterday (May 6) of NSW Roads and Transport Minister Andrew Constance.
Her name is being tested among others in political polling across the seat.
I wonder if Nichole is related to this Overall?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Overall_(architect)
Politically speaking, Barilaro and Constance seem to have combined premature ejaculation and premature withdrawal with a post coital lover’s tiff.
Boerwar Nichole Overall is the other half of the Queanbeyan-Palerang Mayor Tim Overall who is John Overall’s (of NCDC fame) son.
Nichole Overall announced local Woman of the Year
https://www.bombalatimes.com.au/story/6677373/monaro-woman-of-the-year-2020/
“”On top of her work as a local historian Nichole is heavily involved in a number of local organisations including Meals on Wheels and Headspace,” Mr Barilaro said.
“Nichole has been president of the Meals on Wheels Queanbeyan Branch for more than seven years, is the Independent Chair of Headspace Queanbeyan and the inaugural Patron of Molonglo Support Services, which provides support and assistance to those impacted by family violence and homelessness.
“Nichole is also heavily involved in the women’s program at the Monaro Panthers Football Club and is the first female chair of St Edmund’s College Canberra.
:::
Mrs Overall works tirelessly to promote the history of Queanbeyan and surrounds and also hosts historic tours for local school children.
Mrs Overall is also an award-winning author, with works including Queanbeyan: A City Of Champions”
Bulldust says:
Thursday, May 7, 2020 at 7:45 pm
“Who the fuck is Kotvojs. I’m an EM voter and I’ve never heard of her.”
Clearly you are not particularly politically engaged as she pushed Kelly within 1% of the seat as the LNP Candidate.
As for what was she doing in the bushfires? I’m not sure what you exactly expect an unelected individual to do but I suspect as a farmer she may have been protecting her property or as a Director of Oxfam doing something to do with that.
And given the circumstances of Kelly’s departure I expect the ALP to win easily – much like all the s44 by-elections.
‘Terminator says:
Friday, May 8, 2020 at 12:54 pm
Boerwar Nichole Overall is the other half of the Queanbeyan-Palerang Mayor Tim Overall who is John Overall’s (of NCDC fame) son.’
Thanks.
FDOTM latest cartoon
Australia We’re Full Party or an Independent? Who will win the Eden-Monaro by-election?
Is it all moot because of the deadly virus infecting Australia and no I don’t mean the National party ahahaha
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/08/australia-were-full-party-or-an-independent-who-will-win-the-eden-monaro-by-election
La Tingle on the rabble that call themselves the “National” Party: “the behaviour of the Nationals concerning the pre-selection of a candidate for the seat of Eden-Monaro is a timely reminder that this rump is not just a self-indulgent rabble but also a menace to orderly government.”
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-09/coronavirus-by-election-eden-monaro-executive-government/12229362
If anyone is looking for their glasses, I found them.
Fiona Kotvojs is closely allied with Jim Molan. Her booth workers at the last election put up Senate insurgency corflutes for Molan, and handed out his how-to-votes. This was throughout the pre-polling period and then on the day.
The result was a poor Coalition result with weak performance in strong Coalition booths (particularly in the more rural parts of the electorate) compared to other electorates.
Manipulating her into candidacy yet again is part of the Molan climate change denier faction’s push to reinforce its power in the national parliament – even if this diminishes the chance of taking Eden-Monaro from the ALP.
Correction: Julian Burnside contested the seat of Kooyong for the Greens at the 2019 federal election and not Cooper as indicated in your news item regarding the 9 nominations to fill the vacancy created by the resignation of Richard di Natale as one of the two Greens Senators from Victoria.
The membership of the Libs and Nats parties in EM is dominated by very right wing members who are generally much different to the leanings of the electorate. One of the reasons is that the membership, like that of all parties in the ACT is swollen by staffers from federal Parliament trying to make a name for themselves, and thus hopefully(for them) a career in politics. Because, deep down they realise they are idealogically divorced from their potential voters, they generally dont advertise their actual stands on various matters but leave it to those like Molan who already have a firm hold on the public tit.
I know one Lib office holder in the area just north of Canberra who is a real “Stormfront” reader and disseminator who has been a spearcarrier for Kotvjos. He wouldbe among the furtherest out right wingers in Australia.
Dr Kevin Bonham
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6749373/this-is-what-eden-monaro-voters-are-thinking-as-they-head-to-a-byelection/?cs=14350
“It remains ultra-marginal, with Dr Kelly holding on by a whisker last year on a margin of just 1685 votes. Despite the strong personal vote for Dr Kelly, psephologist Kevin Bonham believes that will be made up by the swing that opposition governments usually experience in byelections.
“On average, it’s Labor’s to lose,” Dr Bonham said.
“Concerning coronavirus, the first thing is we don’t know to what extent it will be in the minds at the time the election is held, and the second thing is so far we don’t have a lot of voting-intention polling.
“But so far what we’re seeing in the Newspolls is approval for the government but not a big spike in voting intention. Nothing like what you saw after 9/11.”
It also remains to be seen whether the bushfires, and the prominent role of the Labor candidate in the response, will have a marked effect on voting.
“It’s a funny disconnected electorate in the sense of it radiating out from Canberra and having the ACT as an enclave, some parts of the electorate have no connection to other parts,” he said.”
I am interested in the claim, apparently, by the ABC that Kelly was trying to keep his new job quiet until after the by election.
The reason for my interest is that when Kelly announced his retirement he was asked during his press conference what he intended to do next. He responded wtte that he would continue working and was looking at options and opportunities in the private sector technology field. This was actually reported by the ABC.
Interpret that as you wish.
Nothing more to add to this discussion so goodnight to all.
Cheers.
I see that Morrison has rolled out Jenny and the kids already.
cloth? chute? catty?