Essential Research leadership ratings and coronavirus polling

As the contours of the Eden-Monaro by-election start to take shape, a new poll finds respondents highly satisfied with antipodean governments’ handling of coronavirus, and mindful of the less happy situation elsewhere in the anglosphere.

The Guardian reports Essential Research’s latest weekly round of coronavirus polling includes the pollster’s monthly leadership ratings, which have Scott Morrison’s approval at 64%, gaining a further five points after his 18-point hike a month ago. Anthony Albanese is down two to 42% — we must await the full report later today to see their disapproval ratings. Morrison holds a 50-25 lead as preferred prime minister, out from 46-27 last time (UPDATE: Full report here; both are at 27% disapproval, which is a four point drop in Morrison’s case and a two point drop in Albanese’s).

The most interesting of the latest tranche of coronavirus questions relate to other countries’ handling of the crisis, with 79% rating New Zealand’s response very good or good, whereas (if I’m reading this correctly) the United States’ response is rated very poor or poor by 71%, and the United Kingdom is similarly rated by 48%. Another question finds 57% support for maintaining Newstart either at its current level “after the current crisis passes” or aligning it with the rate for single pensioners, with only 28% in favour of returning it to its earlier level.

The poll also finds growing appetite for easing restrictions, with 37% now saying it is too soon to do so, down from 49% a fortnight ago, and 36% wanting restrictions eased over the next month or two, but still only 10% wanting them gone as soon as possible. Respondents were also presented with a series of propositions about school closures, which found 45% sayig schools should reopen, “half” saying schools should teach students remotely until the outbreak passes, and 41% saying they would keep their children at home even if schools reopened.

The latest news on the by-election front is that NSW Nationals leader John Barilaro has announced he will not run in Eden-Monaro, and Senator Jim Molan has likewise withdrawn his intention to pursue Liberal preselection, with both allowing a clear run for Andrew Constance, NSW Transport Minister and member for the seat of Bega, most of which is within Eden-Monaro. The by-election now looms as a straightforward contest between Labor and Liberal, with the Nationals sure to be only a minor presence in Barilaro’s absence, if indeed they run at all.

Constance was the subject of sympathetic media attention after nearly losing his Malua Bay house in the summer bushfires, a particularly helpful asset given the federal goverment’s handling of the fires loomed as its main liability in the campaign. He revealed in March that he would be quitting politics when the bushfire recovery was complete, albeit without making clear when that might be. The by-election that will now be required in Bega will thus be less disruptive than one in Barilaro’s seat of Monaro would have been, and the seat is also at less risk of being lost by the government. No indication so far as I can see as to who might be in the running in Bega.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,512 comments on “Essential Research leadership ratings and coronavirus polling”

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  1. “ The Democrats are flogging a dead horse named Biden.

    They’ve got time to manage him out, but they won’t, because they’re fools.”

    That’s just about impossible. Not without irreversible collateral damage. They are stuck with sleepy (possibly creepy) Joe.

    The time to manage Joe out was 2018-19. I was loudly saying as much. Reade set this ball in motion. She had one story – consistent with other women’s stories. Democrats presumably weighed that story in the balance and decided to go with Joe, not Bernie. As soon as that was on the cards, Tara Reade was writing oblique yet threatening tweets to up the anti. This is classic ‘Bernie or bust’ destructive behaviour.

  2. Andrew Beatty
    @AndrewBeatty
    · 58m

    The Aussie PM’s announcement of phased lifting of restrictions has been followed by a clear change how people are behaving. Sydney this morning looks like restrictions never existed. Fingers crossed this isn’t hubris that comes back to bite us all.

  3. Andrew_Earlwood @ #3046 Saturday, May 9th, 2020 – 11:46 am

    “ You are contradicting your own earlier admission that complainants of sexual assault do not always behave in the way you would expect. ”

    No, I am not. Some victims lie because of shame. Many others are reluctant to disclose. But for someone to come forward and assiduously peddle an ‘abuse of power, not sexual misconduct’ story – which was ultimately reported on (consistent with other women’s complaints about Biden) and THEN change her story – only once Democrat voters turned against Bernie and to Biden – read that threatening tweet she posted when that was actually happening: well THAT goes against her credibility in a massive way. It’s exactly that kind of ulterior motive and animus which destroys prosecution cases. Even the spectre of an ulterior motive will secure acquittals, let alone someone as blatant as this.

    You’re right. Reade’s story has changed/evolved over time and what she is allegedly complaining about now is not what it was before. There’s also the choices in the way the story is managed and choice of advisors that make you pause. Her personal history of making similar charges against other men in her life does nothing to add credibility to her story. There’s more. But, the bottom line is this is just a political smear job on Biden.

  4. TPOF @ #2919 Saturday, May 9th, 2020 – 8:38 am

    For those interested in the Tara Reade accusations this is a very good dispassionate analysis.

    https://www.vox.com/2020/5/7/21248713/tara-reade-joe-biden-sexual-assault-accusation

    I imagine meher baba hasn’t even bothered to read this before going off half-cocked. And this is an article by someone who is certainly not in Biden’s corner. It’s by the person who wrote the very first article about Reade. I read it to be fair. I wish others were as open-minded.

  5. Anastasia has an election to win. I’m sure post election the hurdles for any projects will be too hard to overcome.

    Why back such stupid project though, it is like she is just totally unaware of all the goods things she’d get great credit for doing, without massive taxpayer subsidies from start to finish noone is going to explore for, mine or sell coal. It would be just burning taxpayer money, with the GBR (which is probably all but gone already).

    Gas is a little more complex, but I wouldn’t be investing a cent in gas any time in the next 5 years. Well not quite if you could cheaply build massive LNG storage that you could run cheaply, probably in Darwin or more north / central to APAC you might be able to make a killing from just storing it for what is going to be a massively over supplied market.

  6. Josh Bavas
    @JoshBavas
    ·
    16m
    Breaking: Queensland’s Deputy Premier Jackie Trad has announced she’s standing aside from her ministerial duties.

    The move is related to a Crime and Corruption Commission investigation into the recruitment process for the principal of the new Inner City South Secondary College.

  7. Lizzie

    Tara Reade will be exposed as a liar.

    Meanwhile I have come to the firm conclusion that pegasus is really pathetic. Fancy thinking that mothers day tmrw in the scheme of this pandemic is a politcal issue. Big fail. Waste of space.

  8. Queensland Deputy Premier Jackie Trad to stand aside from ministerial duties over corruption investigation

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-09/jackie-trad-queensland-treasurer-corruption-investigation/12231356

    “Queensland’s Deputy Premier and Treasurer has announced she is standing aside from her ministerial duties during an investigation launched by the state’s corruption watchdog.

    Jackie Trad said the Crime and Corruption Commission told her yesterday afternoon that it would investigate the recruitment and selection process for the principal of the new Inner City South Secondary College.

    Ms Trad said she would be standing for her South Brisbane seat at this year’s state election and would fully co-operate with the investigation.”

  9. Further Meha madness, re: Sleepy Joe:

    “ And it’s not really his fault. Why did the Dem establishment pick on him as its preferred candidate: a guy who most likely too old to go two terms, who doesn’t seem to have the mental acuity he once had, and who also has a bit of a poor reputation around women?

    Warren, Klobuchar, Harris or any one of a heap of middle-aged male governors and senators would have been a better choice than Biden. To me, it just seems ridiculous: presumably the product of some very poor group think.”

    ___________

    OMG: The. Fucking. ‘Dem establishment’ did not pick him. Actually democrat voters – by the million switched en masse to his tent when they realised that all your prospective hopes (who were my hopes as well, especially Klobuchar and Buttigieg) were not going to ‘get it done’ and that Bernie was too much of a risk in the GE – especially given that his promised wave of new voters couldn’t even be bothered to turn up in sufficient numbers to win conclusively in the primaries.

    I really wish someone relevant could have ‘gotten it done’. I would have even enjoyed the dems taking a big risk on Bernie IF his ‘tidal wave’ of new voters actually turned up and demonstrated a capacity to make common cause with traditional democrat voters.

    Neither of those things happened and ‘we’ are stuck with Sleepy Joe and the Bernies are determined to tear the joint down … again, as always. Fucking trots.

  10. The trump shit show is getting to the boiling frog situati0n in the USA.

    And yet some posters on this blog are discussing and placing extreme importance on the nothing burger of Tara Reade

  11. lizzie @ #3052 Saturday, May 9th, 2020 – 11:55 am

    Andrew Beatty
    @AndrewBeatty
    · 58m

    The Aussie PM’s announcement of phased lifting of restrictions has been followed by a clear change how people are behaving. Sydney this morning looks like restrictions never existed. Fingers crossed this isn’t hubris that comes back to bite us all.

    Ditto Woy Woy this morning. A few sideways glances when you got too close to someone, which you couldn’t help because there were so many people around, and that was it. Zero masks. Zero fucks.

  12. Cat bloviates

    Plus it’s a lie. NSW is under a ‘No Mothers Day Visits’ also.

    1. https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/relationships/family-friends/coronavirus-restrictions-what-you-can-and-cant-do-for-mothers-day/news-story/43a5db29a09e779b78555e1ee90fc20a

    “However, the Premier pointed out two adults and their dependant children can now visit another household at any time around NSW.

    “Please know that two adults and children can visit any mother at any one time and a mother can accept multiple visits a day so long as there is not too many people for each visit,” Ms Berejiklian said.

    “That’s a huge step forward from what would have happened a month ago. To all mothers out there, please know that you will be able to accept those visitors.””
    ————————

    Can I visit my family or parents for Mother’s Day? Australia’s coronavirus lockdown rules and restrictions explained:

    2. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/may/08/australia-lockdown-restrictions-can-i-visit-my-family-parents-mothers-day-coronavirus-nsw-victoria-qld-queensland-covid-19-rules-explained

    “New South Wales – Yes. Up to two adults and the children in their care can visit another person’s home at any one time. There is no restriction on how far you can travel to visit someone.”

  13. The upside here in Melbourne is that once again the weekend weather is cold and rainy.
    Yesterday was quite mild and sunny by comparison.
    This helps in keeping the self isolation in check.

  14. The polling numbers for Trad must be dire. Can see her seat going to the Greens. Also she would not be happy with today’s announcement on coal and gas.

  15. I too am going to leave the compelling and fascinating transition from #metoo to #nowaynother from #believewomen to #lyingbitch, what the dems could and should have known was this was going to be a thing, before they went all in on him, this was a thing, it was always going to be a thing. And well that kind of stupidity doesn’t augur well for their success with this mediocre at best white bread establishment liar, even if he never crossed the line from weird inappropriate sniffer and toucher to criminal toucher.

  16. Rundle is right here: https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/coronavirus/comment-under-covid-cover-morrison-enacts-a-war-on-culture-%E2%80%94-and-wins/ar-BB13LovT

    “Under cover of the coronavirus emergency, they have performed a coup de grace on Australia’s universities, film and TV industries, and arts and cultural sector.”

    Shame Labor isnt more on the case. I need someone from the ALP left to explain to me why they were so excited about Albo. I’m just not seeing it I’m afraid.

    Would love to see Labor go full bore – retention of the higher dole payments during a transition to a new Green deal, transition to future industries (like Higher ed and renewables) with major retraining expenditure for industries in transition, more industrial self-sufficiency in light of pandemic, more infrastructure spending: all capped off with a public campaign on how the LNP is actively destroying our 3rd largest export industry (international students) because they’re idiotic culture warriors and deeply economically irrational – and have actually doubled debt because they’re useless, and so we might as well spend that on making a better more future-ready society.

    I’m a watermelon, and this is why I’m a Green. Labor could get us out of this mess. But they’re just mumbling in their cornflakes. The future is at stake. Go big ideas. 57% of Australians support retention of the higher dole payments. The pandemic has shaken shit up and that’s when leaders redefine the future.

    Go big. You might lose. Go small and Labor will definitely lose.

  17. What is pathetic is how some people can only cope with the fact all Australians except Victorians can visit their mothers tomorrow by clutching at straws and engaging in ad hominem attacks.

    The issue is, why federally and, at the state/territorian level where there are Labor and Liberal governments who are all listening to their CHOs are allowing the visits and Andrews isn’t.

    It speaks to his style of management .

  18. Go small and Labor will definitely lose.

    It is a recipe they have followed for more than a quarter of a century and the only win I’ve got to celebrate has to be put down to Howard losing not Rudd winning.

  19. NSW:
    13,690 tests in 24 hours (295,000 total tests)
    5 positive (0.4%)
    1 o/s; 2 close contact and 2 investigation
    1 death in nursing home but had recovered from Covid and unrelated death

  20. The trump shit show is getting to the boiling frog situati0n in the USA.

    Yeah Trump could easily lose, even to a candidate as bad as Biden. But it is his to win still, he has all the power, the White House, the Senate the Supreme Court. And this isn’t even a scandal he concocted against Biden, those are still to come.

  21. WeWantPaul @ #3065 Saturday, May 9th, 2020 – 12:10 pm

    I too am going to leave the compelling and fascinating transition from #metoo to #nowaynother from #believewomen to #lyingbitch, what the dems could and should have known was this was going to be a thing, before they went all in on him, this was a thing, it was always going to be a thing. And well that kind of stupidity doesn’t augur well for their success with this mediocre at best white bread establishment liar, even if he never crossed the line from weird inappropriate sniffer and toucher to criminal toucher.

    Just change your nom to #HangingJudge and be done with it. And you call yourself a lawyer? I guess even Ambulance Chasers are lawyers.

  22. Pegasus

    The issue is, why federally and, at the state/territorian level where there are Labor and Liberal governments who are all listening to their CHOs are allowing the visits and Andrews isn’t.

    It speaks to his style of management .

    No, it speaks to completing a testing regime before making further decisions. The date is coincidental.

  23. WeWantPaul, yep.

    It’s actually the pragmatist path as well. Have you noticed small vision stuff DOESN’T ACTUALLY WORK?

    Shorto had a partial crack, I’ll give him that. He misjudged the ageing electorate I think.

    What’s Albo stand for? Im buggered if I know. Waiting around for these LNP drongos to fall over (and they really are low quality intellects these days) won’t work when they get very strong wind assistance from the media. You’ve got to capture the public imagination.

    Now is the time. Verities are in flux. A leader defines the future. S/he doesn’t just try to win default brownie points by keeping a low profile.

  24. lizzie @ #3074 Saturday, May 9th, 2020 – 12:21 pm

    Pegasus

    The issue is, why federally and, at the state/territorian level where there are Labor and Liberal governments who are all listening to their CHOs are allowing the visits and Andrews isn’t.

    It speaks to his style of management .

    No, it speaks to completing a testing regime before making further decisions. The date is coincidental.

    Is she just ignoring the NSW situation!?!

  25. No new coronavirus cases again in Queensland, but eradication not expected

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-09/coronavirus-queensland-no-new-cases-restrictions-drug-trial/12228690

    “While there have been no new cases of coronavirus for the third day this week, Queensland’s Health Minister Steven Miles says the Government is not expecting to completely eradicate the virus.
    :::
    “We want them to return here and be cared for in our hospitals, be part of our community but that will mean we’ll continue to see cases, we may even see outbreaks.

    “In fact, as we ease restrictions, that does increase the likelihood that we would see outbreaks.”

    From tomorrow, a household will be able to welcome up to five members of another household.

    Mr Miles said it would be a great day for mums.

    “For the first time, they’ll be able to have their kids and grandkids to their homes in household groups,” he said.

    “As we ease restrictions, that does increase the likelihood we would see outbreaks.”
    ————–

    And this is different to what Morrison is saying how…..?

  26. ‘Pegasus says:
    Saturday, May 9, 2020 at 10:26 am

    George Megalogenis

    Keneally has picked the wrong fight for this pink-collar recession

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/keneally-has-picked-the-wrong-fight-for-this-pink-collar-recession-20200508-p54r0p.html

    This will come as a shock to politicians on both sides who see this recession as an opportunity to revive industry protection, and those on the fringes who want to take the short cut of xenophobia. This is a pink-collar recession, targeting the better educated half of the country, and the young instead of the old.’

    Megalogenis has long been an ardent ‘Big Australia’ advocate. He has never, to my knowledge, mentioned the word ‘sustainability’ in his pro Big stance. He simply ignores it. He has never mentioned, to my knowledge, biodiversity loss, the Anthropocene Extinction, the limits of water in Australia, our declining soils, desertification, the dying Reef or our smashed coastlines.

    Megalogenis simply ignores all that.

    That he has resorted to the standard STF put down of ‘xenophobia’ shows how toxic Megalogenis is in this debate. He wants a Big Australia. If you want a Sustainable Australia you must, therefore, be ‘xenophobic’.

    That a Greens cuts’n’pastes Mega shows that their own migration policy is a matter of stacking up more pressures on an already unsustainable situation.

    Someone ought to ask Mega where he wants to put his five extra Sydneys and his five extra Warragamba Dams and his five extra desal plants.

  27. “And yet some posters on this blog are discussing and placing extreme importance on the nothing burger of Tara Reade”

    ***

    I didn’t make this Tara Reade story appear, neither did any other poster here. It is an issue right now because it blew up in the US media when she did her interview. Regardless of her specific case and what happens, I warned you all that Biden had a problem with women months ago. Tara Reade isn’t the only one who has spoken out against Biden. He is extremely lucky that Trump is so vile and easy to oppose but that does not excuse those who supported him instead of Sanders.

  28. Pegasus

    It speaks to you. Not to style of management
    Andrews, who has been consistent from the get go.

    The emergency powers ends on may 11 and results of the two week testing blitz.

    Easing of restrictions was going to be announced after this and not before.

    Why should it matter. In fact if you care about mothers so much, people going through all on the one day to visit without knowing how the virus is behaving, is downright criminal.
    You are pathetic.

  29. victoria

    In fact if you care about mothers so much, people going through all on the one day to visit without knowing how the virus is behaving, is downright criminal.
    You are pathetic.

    Cognitive dissonance a bit too much to bear?

  30. Pegasus

    Nah. The cognitive dissonance is all you.

    I alone visited my parents yesterday and did their errands for them. They have been in isolation since mid March. Only twice they have been out for medical intervention. Otherwise their medical appointments have been on phone.
    The last thing I want is for my whole family to visit them tomorrow throughout the day just cos it is mothers day. They have 5 children and 11 grandchildren.

  31. BW

    Yes, I am an individual who happens to be a Greens and posts links, without comment, of opinions/insights/facts contrary to the dominant views of this blog. String me up!

    I understand your need to generalise from what I do or say to the entire Greens Party.

    Your misrepresentations and untruths are evident every time you post.

  32. Pegasus says:
    Saturday, May 9, 2020 at 12:28 pm

    victoria

    In fact if you care about mothers so much, people going through all on the one day to visit without knowing how the virus is behaving, is downright criminal.
    You are pathetic.

    Cognitive dissonance a bit too much to bear?
    ___________________
    Victoria’s been a bit lost since the fall of Bill Shorten. Lost without a lodestar and Conroy gone too!

  33. These are the words right out of Gladys Berejiklian’s mouth:

    Earlier in the week, Ms Berejiklian moved to manage expectations and said there would be no changes in place in time for Mother’s Day on Sunday, including large family gatherings.

    On Friday she said people should visit their mothers, but they must stick to the two-adult rule and urged people not to be complacent.

    “With Mother’s Day and another weekend coming along, we know there will be more visitations to people’s houses and we ask people to do that safely, especially if you’re visiting an older and vulnerable person,” Ms Berejiklian said.

    “Please consider how you might conduct that visit to keep everybody safe.”

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/berejiklian-s-roadmap-to-freedom-in-nsw-20200508-p54r4v.html

    But hey, the increasingly desperate and pathetic Greens have got to focus on Dan Andrews. Sad.

  34. I guess Victoria, all the other Labor and Liberal state premiers who are allowing visitors tomorrow are all criminals, pathetic and want everyone’s mothers to die?

  35. On Friday she said people should visit their mothers, but they must stick to the two-adult rule and urged people not to be complacent.

    So, mothers in NSW can receive visitors tomorrow.

  36. Pegasus

    I dont give a shit what others do. I can visit my mum tomorrow if I wish. Just like every other day I visit them. Reason being is that I do things for them that constitute their care.
    Every day is mothers day quite frankly.
    But the notion of all and sundry visiting their mum tomorrow is not necessary in the middle of a pandemic, when we are awaiting the outcome of testing blitz to determine how rampant the virus still is.
    So get off your high horse, pegasus

  37. GG

    I’ve just about had enough of the crapola.

    Politicizing a pandemic is a bridge too far, and using the excuse 0f a confected commercial mothers day to boot. Seriously stuffed

  38. lizzie says:
    Saturday, May 9, 2020 at 12:38 pm

    Nanso44
    @nanso44
    · May 8
    Ted Mack, former MP and ‘father of independents’, dies at 84 https://theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/nov/06/ted-mack-former-mp-and-father-of-independents-dies-at-84- This man was an example of what all politicians should be. Personal integrity, intelligence & decency. Rare species these days. Would not accept taxpayers money on his retirement. Respect.
    __________________________
    Indeed. Gotta love anyone who knocks back the gravy boat.

  39. Victoria @ #3093 Saturday, May 9th, 2020 – 12:38 pm

    GG

    I’ve just about had enough of the crapola.

    Politicizing a pandemic is a bridge too far, and using the excuse 0f a confected commercial mothers day to boot. Seriously stuffed

    I’d say we are about to get another personal anecdote to purify her nonsense.

  40. Firefox says:
    Saturday, May 9, 2020 at 12:39 pm

    “No one takes you seriously.”

    ***

    I take Peg far more seriously than I take you, GG, so you’re wrong.
    ____________
    Me 2. Pegasus is a serious contributor. GG is a warm up act and Hype man for BB.

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