Essential Research leadership ratings and coronavirus polling

As the contours of the Eden-Monaro by-election start to take shape, a new poll finds respondents highly satisfied with antipodean governments’ handling of coronavirus, and mindful of the less happy situation elsewhere in the anglosphere.

The Guardian reports Essential Research’s latest weekly round of coronavirus polling includes the pollster’s monthly leadership ratings, which have Scott Morrison’s approval at 64%, gaining a further five points after his 18-point hike a month ago. Anthony Albanese is down two to 42% — we must await the full report later today to see their disapproval ratings. Morrison holds a 50-25 lead as preferred prime minister, out from 46-27 last time (UPDATE: Full report here; both are at 27% disapproval, which is a four point drop in Morrison’s case and a two point drop in Albanese’s).

The most interesting of the latest tranche of coronavirus questions relate to other countries’ handling of the crisis, with 79% rating New Zealand’s response very good or good, whereas (if I’m reading this correctly) the United States’ response is rated very poor or poor by 71%, and the United Kingdom is similarly rated by 48%. Another question finds 57% support for maintaining Newstart either at its current level “after the current crisis passes” or aligning it with the rate for single pensioners, with only 28% in favour of returning it to its earlier level.

The poll also finds growing appetite for easing restrictions, with 37% now saying it is too soon to do so, down from 49% a fortnight ago, and 36% wanting restrictions eased over the next month or two, but still only 10% wanting them gone as soon as possible. Respondents were also presented with a series of propositions about school closures, which found 45% sayig schools should reopen, “half” saying schools should teach students remotely until the outbreak passes, and 41% saying they would keep their children at home even if schools reopened.

The latest news on the by-election front is that NSW Nationals leader John Barilaro has announced he will not run in Eden-Monaro, and Senator Jim Molan has likewise withdrawn his intention to pursue Liberal preselection, with both allowing a clear run for Andrew Constance, NSW Transport Minister and member for the seat of Bega, most of which is within Eden-Monaro. The by-election now looms as a straightforward contest between Labor and Liberal, with the Nationals sure to be only a minor presence in Barilaro’s absence, if indeed they run at all.

Constance was the subject of sympathetic media attention after nearly losing his Malua Bay house in the summer bushfires, a particularly helpful asset given the federal goverment’s handling of the fires loomed as its main liability in the campaign. He revealed in March that he would be quitting politics when the bushfire recovery was complete, albeit without making clear when that might be. The by-election that will now be required in Bega will thus be less disruptive than one in Barilaro’s seat of Monaro would have been, and the seat is also at less risk of being lost by the government. No indication so far as I can see as to who might be in the running in Bega.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,512 comments on “Essential Research leadership ratings and coronavirus polling”

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  3. BK, my sincere condolences to you and the family. It’s a terrible wrench, that final cutting of the umbilicus. All the best and thanks as ever for the dawn patrol.

  6. Morning all and thank BK, although nobody would mind if you had a few extra days off at a time like this.

    Shane Wright writes that hundreds of thousands of unemployed Australians face a huge cut in their incomes just before Christmas as the Morrison government prepares to wind back income support.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/temporary-lifeline-hundreds-of-thousands-face-pre-christmas-income-hit-20200508-p54r67.html

    I know I shouldn’t be, but I’m somewhat surprised they are doing this. It’s too soon, and as Mega George pointed out, the workers who missed out on keeping their jobs via JobKeeper are keeping afloat only by the increase in the dole. Why add those who are still not guaranteed to return to their usual employment to the scrap heap as well?

  7. It was only a matter of time, but this is the second person in the WH to test positive. And she happens to be married to Stephen Miller one of Trump’s advisors.

    A top aide to Vice President Pence has tested positive for the coronavirus, making her the second known person working at the White House to contract the illness in the past two days, according to several people familiar with the situation.

    Katie Miller, the vice president’s press secretary, was notified Friday about the result, according to people familiar with the situation who spoke on the condition of anonymity because it had not been publicly announced by the White House. Miller confirmed to NBC News that she tested positive and said she was asymptomatic. The White House earlier in the day confirmed that a member of Pence’s staff tested positive but did not disclose the individual’s name.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/a-top-aide-to-vice-president-pence-tests-positive-for-coronavirus/2020/05/08/7d80520c-914e-11ea-a0bc-4e9ad4866d21_story.html

  12. There’s always a tweet.

    Donald J. Trump@realDonaldTrump
    ·
    3 Dec 2017
    I had to fire General Flynn because he lied to the Vice President and the FBI. He has pled guilty to those lies. It is a shame because his actions during the transition were lawful. There was nothing to hide!

  14. “Prime Minister Scott Morrison on Friday stood by the government’s plans to phase out the coronavirus supplement for JobSeeker recipients and the JobKeeper program from mid-September, saying they came at a significant cost that would have to be borne by future generations.”

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/temporary-lifeline-hundreds-of-thousands-face-pre-christmas-income-hit-20200508-p54r67.html

    ***

    No, Scott, the significant cost should be borne by the undeserving capitalist elite that you serve. You know, the people who have been screwing over the most disadvantaged in society all this time just to make a quick buck. Imposing harsh austerity measures on everyone just so the rich elites can turn a profit again is unacceptable.

  15. Sharri Markson’s “exclusive”.

    The current crazy bat theory about the Chinese cooking up the Covid-19 coronavirus at the Wuhan Institute of Virology looks like a textbook case of laundered journalism, this time using the Australian media to back anti-China theories pushed by Donald Trump and his Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.
    …
    Some Australian News Corp tabloids, led by Sydney’s Daily Telegraph, have been promulgating this theory over the past month.

    Last weekend The Daily Telegraph splashed with details from a 15-page “secret dossier” allegedly compiled by intelligence agencies and presented to the Five Eyes community – made up of security services and their political masters from Australia, the US, Great Britain, New Zealand and Canada.

    Australian intelligence sources who reviewed the material said it was little more than freely available media and other reports which had been classified at some stage, probably by the Home Affairs Department in Canberra.

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2020/05/09/dennis-atkins-us-is-using-australian-media-to-air-its-dirty-laundry/

  17. Socrates @ #2909 Saturday, May 9th, 2020 – 7:58 am

    Morning all and best wishes BK.

    So Scomo was at the wheel of the bus Bridget McKenzie was thrown under. Pity most people’s attention is elsewhere at present, because this story damns our PM.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-08/labor-sports-grants-prime-minister-email-bridget-mckenzie/12229924

    In the anodyne response to the ABC’s inquiries, the PMO has virtually admitted that Scott Morrison’s fingerprints were all over the colour-coded spreadsheet:

    In response, a spokesman for Mr Morrison said it was not unusual for the Prime Minister’s office to engage with other members of the ministry on Government business.

    “As the ANAO confirmed, Senator McKenzie was the decision maker of the program,” he said.

    “As is normal practice, ministers and their offices engage with the Prime Minister’s Office regarding the announcement of government programs.”

    Parsing between the lines, Morrison had oversight of the program and he and CHQ needed to give it their imprimatur, then it was funnelled back to McKenzie to ‘make the decisions’.

    Though I am imagining that Morrison will believe he has acquired a teflon coating wrt this stuff since COVID-19 hit Australia.

    If I were Labor, I’d be seeing who missed out in Eden-Monaro. 🙂

  20. Prime Minister Scott Morrison on Friday stood by the government’s plans to phase out the coronavirus supplement for JobSeeker recipients and the JobKeeper program from mid-September

    MOFO. That is about when a bunch of industries (like mine) will be needing it.

  21. Hypocrite Trump Now Requires People Around Him To Wear Masks

    Trump has refused to wear a mask or follow virus guidelines, but he now requires those in close contact with him to wear face coverings.

    The White House rolled out new requirements after Stephen Miller’s wife, and Pence staffer, Katie Miller, tested positive for coronavirus:

    NEW WH procedures after aides test positive for coronavirus.
    -Deep/more frequent cleaning of West Wing
    -Requiring staff who serve president & close to him throughout day to wear face coverings
    -Members of WH press corps will be offered free testing

    https://www.politicususa.com/2020/05/08/trump-masks-white-house-staff.html

  23. “It’s that Ultra He Man persona Trump likes to project, again. What, me worry?”

    ***

    He’s overcompensating… He has to in order to satisfy his chronic narcissism.

  24. Trump says coronavirus will ‘go away without a vaccine’

    During a meeting with GOP lawmakers on Friday, President Donald Trump suggested that developing a vaccine for coronavirus might be unnecessary because it will “go away” on its own.

    “I feel about vaccines like I feel about tests,” said Trump. “This is going to go away without a vaccine, it’s gonna go away, and we’re not going to see it again, hopefully, after a period of time. You may have some flare-ups.”

    He then qualified his statement, adding he wasn’t saying it would go away this year.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2020/05/trump-says-coronavirus-will-go-away-without-a-vaccine/

  26. Trump says coronavirus will ‘go away without a vaccine’

    Yep, he’s right about that. It’ll go away when it’s killed everyone.

  29. Guytaur:’When I have to use public transport I will be wearing a mask. So far I am looking to August for that. By that time hopefully things will have sorted themselves out.’

    You may also consider disposable gloves too. Weat them on PT and then ditch. Touching surfaces, that other people have touched, and then touching the wet bits on your face is another way of getting infected.

  31. Hoping KayJay is OK.

    Here’s something for D&M and others to help get the weekend off to a cheery start.

    Patrick Savage is ex Victorian College of the Arts, a principal first violinist with leading orchestras, a film score composer, based in London, plays with the Australian World Orchestra, and has made some lovely little ‘one minute of silly music to social distance by’ smiley pieces — here’s one; more on his youtube page.

    https://youtu.be/KZjuKqtZCUk

  32. A thoughtful piece by Laura Tingle..

    “But the behaviour of the Nationals concerning the pre-selection of a candidate for the seat of Eden-Monaro is a timely reminder that this rump is not just a self-indulgent rabble but also a menace to orderly government.

    And just because the NSW Deputy Premier changed his mind and announced he would not be running for the seat, doesn’t mean it’s over. It won’t be for a while.”

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-09/coronavirus-by-election-eden-monaro-executive-government/12229362

  33. BK, I’m sorry to hear about your mum. If she was anything like her son, she would have been a very decent persona and sad to lose.

  34. Re; Tara Reade….this is just the start of what will be thrown in the Presidential election…. Remember Clinton was running a pedophile ring from a pizza joint.
    Unfortunately any Democratic candidate would have had to deal with hundreds of these kind of smears. Biden is no exception.

  35. this rump is not just a self-indulgent rabble but also a menace to orderly government.

    Yeah, nice phrasing. She could have cut to the chase a bit more. They are not merely a menace to orderly government.

  36. The Victorian premier wanted people to understand he’d be hastening slowly – the message being here in the Massachusetts of Australia, we decide how quickly we’ll remove coronavirus restrictions. We don’t apply an arbitrary national average.

    Minutes before that, Scott Morrison was jutting out his chin in Canberra. Have you noticed this unconscious habit of the prime minister’s? When Morrison intends to be resolute, or because he can’t smother his impatience, he juts out his chin. This body language generally means shut it mate, I’m talking. The prime ministerial chin was duly jutted, and Morrison declared that fresh outbreaks of the coronavirus after the easing of restrictions would not, repeat, n-o-t, be a reason to reverse course. Premiers just needed to hold their nerve.

    Just for the record, Morrison declined to nominate a threshold at which this collective holding of nerves might shatter.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/may/09/covid-19-competence-has-given-australian-governments-some-political-capital-but-theres-a-flipside?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

  37. Remember Clinton was running a pedophile ring from a pizza joint.

    The difference is that this allegation from Tara Reade is very credible.

  40. I mentioned vehicle data logging/harvesting in post on covidsafe last week. I have a Ford Everest that is WiFi capable. I have disabled WiFi as I don’t trust Ford not to harvest my data. I don’t use a dealer for servicing either for the same reason. Then another dimension is added if you use Andriod Auto or Apple CarPlay.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/life/tech/2020/05/09/big-data-car-insurance/?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Saturday%20News%20-%2020200509

  42. The World Is Taking Pity on Us

    Will American prestige ever recover?

    A country that turned out eight combat aircraft every hour at the peak of World War II could not even produce enough 75-cent masks or simple cotton nasal swabs for testing in this pandemic.

    A country that showed the world how to defeat polio now promotes quack remedies involving household disinfectants from the presidential podium.

    A country that rescued postwar Europe with the Marshall Plan didn’t even bother to show up this week at the teleconference of global leaders pledging contributions for a coronavirus vaccine.

    A country that sent George Patton and Dwight Eisenhower to crush the Nazis now fights a war against a viral killer with Jared Kushner, a feckless failed real estate speculator who holds power by virtue of his marriage to the president’s daughter.

    Will American prestige ever recover? Not for some time. Our image abroad took a real hit after Trump’s election, and it has continued to fall. Most of the world now has no confidence in the president’s leadership.

    But then, the same is true with most Americans. Welcome to our nightmare.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/08/opinion/coronavirus-trump.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage

  43. That Tim Wilson is a slimy grub. Just accused Dan Andrews is enjoying the power he has in keeping the lockdown longer than (according to him) necessary.

    He is using the ‘I’m just reporting what people are saying’.

  44. In arts news, the MSO is struggling, with musicians stood down without pay, morale low, and an online petition going around calling for the MD and Board to be sacked.

    The Sydney Symphony Orchestra is faring much better. Through a collaborative process, the musicians have signed onto a salary cut, reducing salary outgoings by 25%, CEO Emma Dunch (an absolute godsend) has taken a 40% cut till the end of 2021, and administrative staff a 30% cut. Many subscribers are donating their unused tickets, and the company is benefiting from the Govt’s assistance packages.

    https://www.limelightmagazine.com.au/news/the-sso-and-employees-sign-up-to-new-workplace-arrangements/

  45. On the morning of Jan. 3, an email was sent from the Indonesian Embassy in Australia to a member of the premier of Western Australia’s staff who worked on health and ecological issues. Attached was a Word document that aroused no immediate suspicions, since the intended recipient knew the supposed sender.

    The attachment contained an invisible cyberattack tool called Aria-body, which had never been detected before and had alarming new capabilities. Hackers who used it to remotely take over a computer could copy, delete or create files and carry out extensive searches of the device’s data, and the tool had new ways of covering its tracks to avoid detection.

    Now a cybersecurity company in Israel has identified Aria-body as a weapon wielded by a group of hackers, called Naikon, that has previously been traced to the Chinese military. And it was used against far more targets than the office of Mark McGowan, the premier of Western Australia, according to the company, Check Point Software Technologies, which released a report on Thursday about the tool.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/07/world/asia/china-hacking-military-aria.html

  46. thanks BK for today’s Dawn patrol,especially in light of your mother just passing away. You are a gem. She is no doubt very proud of having a wonderful son.


  49. Nicholas says:
    Saturday, May 9, 2020 at 9:12 am
    Remember Clinton was running a pedophile ring from a pizza joint.
    The difference is that this allegation from Tara Reade is very credible.

    Nicholas still campaigning for trump.
    The story is ; if you bother to read it; he walked up to her, stuck his hand up her dress and “fingered her”. Nicholas, it is offensive and it completely discredits sanders and his supporter. Trump supporters not so much; they are happy being in the gutter.

  50. Goodness me the Tara Reade story is pizzagate all over again.

    The latest reports are that she was managed out of her job in the senate office due to cheque fraud in California.
    She then told her family and friends a different reason for being given the boot.
    For those hanging their hat on Tara Reade I would wait and see how it plays out,.

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