Essential Research leadership ratings and coronavirus polling

As the contours of the Eden-Monaro by-election start to take shape, a new poll finds respondents highly satisfied with antipodean governments’ handling of coronavirus, and mindful of the less happy situation elsewhere in the anglosphere.

The Guardian reports Essential Research’s latest weekly round of coronavirus polling includes the pollster’s monthly leadership ratings, which have Scott Morrison’s approval at 64%, gaining a further five points after his 18-point hike a month ago. Anthony Albanese is down two to 42% — we must await the full report later today to see their disapproval ratings. Morrison holds a 50-25 lead as preferred prime minister, out from 46-27 last time (UPDATE: Full report here; both are at 27% disapproval, which is a four point drop in Morrison’s case and a two point drop in Albanese’s).

The most interesting of the latest tranche of coronavirus questions relate to other countries’ handling of the crisis, with 79% rating New Zealand’s response very good or good, whereas (if I’m reading this correctly) the United States’ response is rated very poor or poor by 71%, and the United Kingdom is similarly rated by 48%. Another question finds 57% support for maintaining Newstart either at its current level “after the current crisis passes” or aligning it with the rate for single pensioners, with only 28% in favour of returning it to its earlier level.

The poll also finds growing appetite for easing restrictions, with 37% now saying it is too soon to do so, down from 49% a fortnight ago, and 36% wanting restrictions eased over the next month or two, but still only 10% wanting them gone as soon as possible. Respondents were also presented with a series of propositions about school closures, which found 45% sayig schools should reopen, “half” saying schools should teach students remotely until the outbreak passes, and 41% saying they would keep their children at home even if schools reopened.

The latest news on the by-election front is that NSW Nationals leader John Barilaro has announced he will not run in Eden-Monaro, and Senator Jim Molan has likewise withdrawn his intention to pursue Liberal preselection, with both allowing a clear run for Andrew Constance, NSW Transport Minister and member for the seat of Bega, most of which is within Eden-Monaro. The by-election now looms as a straightforward contest between Labor and Liberal, with the Nationals sure to be only a minor presence in Barilaro’s absence, if indeed they run at all.

Constance was the subject of sympathetic media attention after nearly losing his Malua Bay house in the summer bushfires, a particularly helpful asset given the federal goverment’s handling of the fires loomed as its main liability in the campaign. He revealed in March that he would be quitting politics when the bushfire recovery was complete, albeit without making clear when that might be. The by-election that will now be required in Bega will thus be less disruptive than one in Barilaro’s seat of Monaro would have been, and the seat is also at less risk of being lost by the government. No indication so far as I can see as to who might be in the running in Bega.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,512 comments on “Essential Research leadership ratings and coronavirus polling”

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  1. PeeBee

    I couldn’t watch because I sincerely loathe Timmy, and his normal way of entering any conversation is to talk over others. Big ego is all he has.

  2. Confessions @ #2922 Saturday, May 9th, 2020 – 8:42 am

    C@t:

    Check out this video montage of Trump’s public statements over the pandemic emergency period. I simply cannot fathom why anyone would believe a single word that comes out of his mouth.

    https://www.mediaite.com/tv/watch-morning-joe-airs-damning-montage-of-trumps-rhetoric-as-coronavirus-death-toll-rose/

    Because they are goldfish?

    Also because there is residual respect in America for everything a President says (except if you are Barack Obama).

  3. ” Our image abroad took a real hit after Trump’s election, and it has continued to fall.”

    ***

    To be honest with you, the US’s image abroad was pretty terrible even before Trump. And yes, it’s only gotten worse since.

  4. PeeBee @ #2943 Saturday, May 9th, 2020 – 7:17 am

    That Tim Wilson is a slimy grub. Just accused Dan Andrews is enjoying the power he has in keeping the lockdown longer than (according to him) necessary.

    He is using the ‘I’m just reporting what people are saying’.

    I wonder if he’s been talking to Michael and Meher?

  5. Julian Andrew
    @JulianAndrew63
    ·
    2m
    Morrison sends out Dan Tehan, Katie Allen, and now Tim Wilson to attack Dan Andrews, and keeps hiding behind the smirk.

  6. Hamish Macdonald
    @hamishNews
    ·
    56m
    Clearly a bit of confusion about the ‘3-step plan’ in Sydney cafes this morning. Some still doing take-away only. Others have the tables and chairs out, enthusiastically telling customers they’re now allowed to have up to 10 people…

  7. The difference is that this allegation from Tara Reade is very credible.

    There is a difference. Not sure about the use of ‘very’.

    Ford was different. She stood up and gave evidence to what could have been a hostile audience with cross examination. After her testimony, even some Republican senators found her credible, her motives genuine.

    The difference could be seen at the time of Fords testimony with Avenatti parading around in the media for his clients. Almost nobody took Avenatti seriously. Just about everyone took Ford seriously.

  8. Folks, I’m telling you, there’s a decent chance show trial-style charges are brought against Barack Obama before November.

    Bringing Obama into a show trial would be the dumbest thing this administration could do.

    I know we should keep an eye on what Fox News is showing… but I wonder the benefit of helping spread their toxic waste any further.

  9. Firefox @ #2956 Saturday, May 9th, 2020 – 9:26 am

    ” Our image abroad took a real hit after Trump’s election, and it has continued to fall.”

    ***

    To be honest with you, the US’s image abroad was pretty terrible even before Trump. And yes, it’s only gotten worse since.

    The second Iraq War was a big image setback. The animosity toward the blatant hegemony and lies was palpable. I have an ex New Yorker friend and I remember her saying then that being an American abroad was no easy thing.

  10. “ clem
    You need to stay away from the metho old chap.
    Old hat.
    Meths is the go in these modern times.”

    Steady on Boer. Clem is old school. Tawny port all the way. His adjustment to modernity comes in the form of swapping his daily purchases from flagons to goony bags.

  11. Woman who suffered miscarriage in coronavirus quarantine was forced to return to hotel

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-09/serious-mental-health-incidents-in-coronavirus-hotel-quarantine/12225370

    A woman who suffered a miscarriage in mandatory COVID-19 quarantine was forced to stay in a hotel room for five days after the traumatic event because Victoria’s Health Department failed to act on an order to release her.
    :::
    The case of Ms Desai is one of several uncovered by the ABC that indicate the acute mental health needs of those in quarantine may have been overlooked.

    People held in quarantine in multiple states said they struggled to get help for mental health issues, leading to episodes of extreme anxiety, panic attacks and concerns about self-harm.
    :::
    Professor Patrick McGorry, a psychiatrist and mental health researcher, said the pandemic would trigger an explosion in mental health conditions.
    :::
    The mental health treatment available to those in quarantine is set to be examined in multiple states.

    The Victorian coroner is investigating the case of a man who is believed to have died by suicide while in quarantine in a Melbourne hotel on April 11.

    The ABC can reveal the case is being treated as a death in custody or care, making it subject to a mandatory inquest.

    In Western Australia, multiple complaints have been made to the WA ombudsman about the treatment of a Navy veteran with post-traumatic stress disorder who suffered an extreme relapse in a quarantine hotel.

  12. “Minutes before that, Scott Morrison was jutting out his chin in Canberra. Have you noticed this unconscious habit of the prime minister’s? When Morrison intends to be resolute, or because he can’t smother his impatience, he juts out his chin.”

    Like Mussolini.

  13. It appears that the response from Morrison, Frydenberg , Hunt and the national cabinet was hastened by the fact that the virus doesn’t discriminate on the basis of wealth!

  14. Tim Wilson might be reporting that people are saying the Dan Andrews is enjoying the power trip of keeping Victoria locked down but . . . .

    – people where? . . . . around Sydney Harbour

    – the people in Goldstein, his electorate, yesterday seemed comfortable to be walking in the sunshine making plans for their careers when they get back to work

    – a group of yummy mummys clogged the footpath with one bewailing the kids at home, countered by others, the most piercing was that Bialik College had 20 students on campus, enrolment 1046

  15. ‘UK to bring in 14-day quarantine for air passengers …. UK airlines say they have been told the government will bring in a 14-day quarantine for anyone arriving in the UK from any country apart from the Republic of Ireland …. expected to take effect at the end of this month … people arriving in the UK would have to self-isolate at a private residence’

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52594023

    Very strange timing – lots of the comments on the BBC page asking why now and not weeks ago

  16. Calls to cut immigration often ignore Australia’s economic and social reality

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-09/immigration-cut-calls-often-ignore-economic-and-social-reality/12228562

    Australia sings of having “boundless plains to share”, even as we shout about who gets to enjoy them.

    Our national anthem might greet “those who’ve come across the sea” — our society and economy does too — but we’re in a cycle of kvetching* about who should come, where they should live, what they should do and how they’re changing our lives.

    This week, the Federal Opposition’s spokeswoman on immigration and home affairs, Kristina Keneally, kicked off the latest instalment, with an opinion piece calling for our post-COVID-19 migration program to be changed because the size and shape of our intake “has hurt many Australian workers”.
    :::
    Which is where the politics comes in.

    The recurring political debate about immigration tends to ignore the demand and employment that new communities create, focusing on the particular high and lower-skilled jobs we’re importing people to do.
    :::
    One reason is that state governments and the Commonwealth have taken the economic wins from population growth — such as increased property stamp duty, payroll and income taxes — but not spent the money to help our largest cities deal with the growth.
    :::
    There are extensive problems in our immigration system. Some visa categories place people in positions ripe for exploitation, and others lack rigorous testing to show that locals were unavailable to fill the job.

    But ANU demographer Dr Liz Allen said migrants don’t “steal the jobs” of locals.

    “Migrants fill much-needed job vacancies that locals either lack the skills for or don’t want to do,” Dr Allen said.
    :::
    Temporary visa workers essentially told to go home
    :::
    So immigration isn’t a factor in Australia, or a talking point. It’s us.

  17. laughtong

    Unfortunately I don’t think KayJay’s daughters would be the ones to tell us if there’s anything wrong. He has frequent tests. One may have landed him in hospital.

  18. The COVID three stage strategy clearly states it is up to states to determine time line but when it is released Morrison gets his ministers and media to start bullying states to adhere to his timeline.

  19. PeeBee @ 7:17 “That Tim Wilson is a slimy grub.”

    Can I report that? After all, “people” are saying it.

  20. Very strange timing – lots of the comments on the BBC page asking why now and not weeks ago

    Yep, I thought they’d introduced a travel quarantine just like everyone else ages ago!

  21. Does Trump understand anything at all?

    Greg Jericho@GrogsGamut
    ·
    8m
    Trump seems to think the tests are meant to show if you are immune

    ***
    Aaron Rupar
    @atrupar
    · 3h
    TRUMP: “Katie, she tested very good for a long period of time, and then all of the sudden she tested positive … this is why the whole concept of tests aren’t necessarily great … today, I guess, for some reason, she tested positive.”

  22. Pegasus @ #2973 Saturday, May 9th, 2020 – 9:54 am

    Calls to cut immigration often ignore Australia’s economic and social reality

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-09/immigration-cut-calls-often-ignore-economic-and-social-reality/12228562

    Australia sings of having “boundless plains to share”, even as we shout about who gets to enjoy them.

    Our national anthem might greet “those who’ve come across the sea” — our society and economy does too — but we’re in a cycle of kvetching* about who should come, where they should live, what they should do and how they’re changing our lives.

    Naturally, we should base our immigration policy on our national anthem, our economic policy on a Banjo Patterson song, and environmental policy on a Dorothea Mackeller poem.

    What could possibly go wrong?

  23. billie @ #2971 Saturday, May 9th, 2020 – 9:51 am

    Tim Wilson might be reporting that people are saying the Dan Andrews is enjoying the power trip of keeping Victoria locked down but . . . .

    – people where? . . . . around Sydney Harbour

    – the people in Goldstein, his electorate, yesterday seemed comfortable to be walking in the sunshine making plans for their careers when they get back to work

    – a group of yummy mummys clogged the footpath with one bewailing the kids at home, countered by others, the most piercing was that Bialik College had 20 students on campus, enrolment 1046

    The issue for the Libs is that Andrews and Gladys are very experienced politicians, they actually know what their legitimate powers are, they are confident in their abilities to manage their States and they are doing the job expected of them by the community.

    In this situation Morrison is trying to take the Lead. But, he’s the a bit like an ashtray on a motor bike; of no real value. Every missive he posts has the clause “Of course it is up to the States to implement the plan in their jurisdiction”. Listening to Andrews, yesterday he seemed only interested in the bright colours and lay out of Scotty’s Plan. Hardly, the ringing endorsement that The feds were hoping for. Andrews is doing things his way.

    This is what the Murdoch media and the Libs hate. They know they are impotent to influence the only real story going on atm and all they’ve got is abuse and traduce to counter the State Premiers.

  24. lizzie @ #2960 Saturday, May 9th, 2020 – 9:31 am

    Hamish Macdonald
    @hamishNews
    ·
    56m
    Clearly a bit of confusion about the ‘3-step plan’ in Sydney cafes this morning. Some still doing take-away only. Others have the tables and chairs out, enthusiastically telling customers they’re now allowed to have up to 10 people…

    I believe this was Morrison’s intent. He has decided enough is enough, and that we must now sacrifice our lives to save his economic credentials. His attempts to con New Zealand into opening up a “travel bubble” came to nothing because Ardern is not a moron, so he is now sowing confusion in an effort to undermine the states.

  25. Andrews is doing things his way

    Unlike other jurisdictions locally and overseas, he eschewed an independent multiparty oversight committee. Transparency and accountability is not his “thing” because he has an unshakeable belief he “knows best”.

    Mother’s Day tomorrow and Victorians are the only Australians unable to visit their mothers.

  26. Calls to cut immigration often ignore Australia’s economic and social reality

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-09/immigration-cut-calls-often-ignore-economic-and-social-reality/12228562

    I remember in 1992 when Telstra imported 1200 programmers from Ireland they fired 2000 Australian programmers

    In 2003 Monash University Caulfield, home of Commonwealth Programmer in Training, fired 75 lecturers after enrolments fell off a cliff because firms were able to offshore their computer departments

    In 2005 Telstra looked for 1200 Cobol programmers to overhaul the billing system CABA, they hired Indian graduates who they had to teach Excel and Cobol. Experienced Australians based in Melbourne were not interviewed

  27. Re; Tara Reade….this is just the start of what will be thrown in the Presidential election…. Remember Clinton was running a pedophile ring from a pizza joint.
    Unfortunately any Democratic candidate would have had to deal with hundreds of these kind of smears. Biden is no exception.

    Wow I’ve seen some quasi legal logic, relying on the legal systems failure to deliver justice to victims, arguing the same old things rapists have been using for decades, but this take is really really nasty.

  28. Pegasus @ #2984 Saturday, May 9th, 2020 – 10:09 am

    Andrews is doing things his way

    Unlike other jurisdictions locally and overseas, he eschewed an independent multiparty oversight committee. Transparency and accountability is not his “thing” because he has an unshakeable belief he “knows best”.

    Mother’s Day tomorrow and Victorians are the only Australians unable to visit their mothers.

    You keep repeating this babble as if it is important.

  29. Pegasus @ #2984 Saturday, May 9th, 2020 – 8:09 am

    Andrews is doing things his way

    Unlike other jurisdictions locally and overseas, he eschewed an independent multiparty oversight committee. Transparency and accountability is not his “thing” because he has an unshakeable belief he “knows best”.

    Mother’s Day tomorrow and Victorians are the only Australians unable to visit their mothers.

    Is that the only day of the year that you’re allowed to see her?

  30. Will Morrison’s mob and the LNP’s ‘normal’ cabinet, together with its ever increasing and foreboding shadow seemingly attached to the same cabinet, consider housing Australia’s homeless in the large international hotels for the duration of winter perhaps.
    The inbred MSM and its attachment, the Morrison LNP government, having gambled on the non re-emergence of a second wave of the virus, will move into overtime to gain ill-deserved mileage from the exceptional state based pandemic response.
    The state leaders, together with the first response state public servants are the conduit through which Australia averted a more deadly pandemic.
    Morrison’s government, the LNP/Dutton border force, the jobkeeper/jobseeker discombobulated nonsense, the attack on industry superannuation and the lack of pandemic resources are the real characteristics of the Morrison / business leaders / wealthy pandemic response.
    The imbroglio which developed spontaneously as a result of the by-election in E-M, is the current LNP across Australia.

  31. Player One

    I may be wrong, but weeks ago Morrison set up some sort of C’tee to oversee the economic recovery. Never mind that it was composed of “friends of mining”. Part of their remit could have been to assist/supervise businesses such as large restaurants and entertainment venues to work out strategies to account for social distancing as restrictions were relaxed. Instead, many of them say they will be destroyed.

    Of course, this would have required a little forethought and planning. Not one of SfM’s strengths.

  32. The G

    “More than 120 asylum seekers and refugees are being held in the Kangaroo Point Central Hotel in inner-city Brisbane.

    They are forced to live in close proximity to each other, sharing rooms for sleeping as well as communal spaces for eating and recreation. They are not allowed out, but are exposed to security guards and other workers coming in and out of their confined space.

    A steadily building protest movement is urging the government to release people into the community – a significant number have families living in Australia, other friends – where they could more easily practice social distancing.

    The Australian government’s health department has warned that people held in detention are at greater risk of contracting Covid-19, and at greater risk of having serious illness from it.

    On Friday, supporters who came to protest the ongoing detention of asylum seekers and refugees, by having picnics and by exercising along the footpath next to the hotel, were fined by police – at least six were fined $1334 The Guardian understands – while others were told by officers to move on.

    Some people laid down rugs on the edge of the footpath to have a picnic – legal in Queensland as long as social distancing is observed – but were forced to move on.

    Refugees and asylum seekers protesting on the balconies of the hotel unfurled a two-storey banner from the hotel’s balcony reading “no crime, 7 years in detention” while police officers issued fines and move-on orders.
    :::
    (A democracy hey? Lucky that robotic dog from Singapore wasn’t around.)”

  33. GG

    Considering the antagonism shown by the VicLibs so far, it’s hardly surprising that Andrews didn’t want to work with them. They’d be pushing to open everything up immediately.

  34. NSW police watchdog says strip searches illegal but critics say findings ‘did not go far enough’

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/may/08/nsw-police-watchdog-says-strip-searches-illegal-but-critics-say-findings-did-not-go-far-enough

    But the watchdog has been criticised for “not going far enough” in its findings, with Sarah Crellin, a principal solicitor at the Aboriginal Legal Service, saying she was “deeply disappointed that there have been no recommendations for disciplinary action” against individual officers.

    On Friday the Law Enforcement Conduct Commission released the findings of five separate investigations into seven strip searches conducted between March 2015 and January 2019.

  35. lizzie @ #2990 Saturday, May 9th, 2020 – 10:14 am

    Of course, this would have required a little forethought and planning. Not one of SfM’s strengths.

    Indeed. Morrison’s only talent seems to be taking credit for other people’s efforts. Even while he screws them up.

    Like others here, I was once skeptical about the usefulness of State governments. Now I thank Christ every single day that we still have them.

  36. Peg, I am happy that Andrews is doing things his own way

    Bushfires had been burning in NSW since August and there was no help for bushfire victims

    When the bushfires roared into Victorian settlements Andrews declared a State of Emergency, restricted travel into eastern Victoria, revamped the emergency box in each endangered settlement upgrading box to shipping container containing water and emergency supplies, swapping vodaphone for satelite phone. His daily briefings were so good that Morrison would start a rambling press conference to talk over the Victorian briefing. Andrews delegated briefing to others so Morrison wouldn’t cut off emergency briefings. Andrews was a minister in govt when 2009 bushfires swept through – Kinglake township had portable homes set up within a month as temporary accommodation for the burnt out residents, contrast that with Cobargo

    When Covid19 started Victoria closed down hard, about a week after opthalmologists were telling their patienst to avoid crowds.

    So Victorians can’t visit their mothers on mothers day.
    Boo hoo!
    Has the Cedar Meats outbreak been contained yet?

    So Victorian schools aren’t going back yet as we come into winter. has the state got enough testing kits to test every one with a sniffle and cough?

  37. Greensborough Growler @ #2987 Saturday, May 9th, 2020 – 8:12 am

    Pegasus @ #2984 Saturday, May 9th, 2020 – 10:09 am

    Andrews is doing things his way

    Unlike other jurisdictions locally and overseas, he eschewed an independent multiparty oversight committee. Transparency and accountability is not his “thing” because he has an unshakeable belief he “knows best”.

    Mother’s Day tomorrow and Victorians are the only Australians unable to visit their mothers.

    You keep repeating this babble as if it is important.

    A sign of the worst kind of partisan, tribal hack. When you attack political leaders for treading cautiously with relaxing pandemic restrictions aimed at keeping vulnerable members of our community safe.

    Precisely why I’ve long regarded Pegasus as just another braying troll.

  38. George Megalogenis

    Keneally has picked the wrong fight for this pink-collar recession

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/keneally-has-picked-the-wrong-fight-for-this-pink-collar-recession-20200508-p54r0p.html

    This will come as a shock to politicians on both sides who see this recession as an opportunity to revive industry protection, and those on the fringes who want to take the short cut of xenophobia. This is a pink-collar recession, targeting the better educated half of the country, and the young instead of the old.
    :::
    It is hard to see the Morrison government testing any theory of economic rationalism before the next federal election, especially if the unemployment rate remains above 10 per cent. But it might be tempted by nativism. Higher unemployment increases the scope for scapegoating.

    Labor’s homes affairs spokeswoman Senator Kristina Keneally used an opinion piece in last weekend’s Sun-Herald and The Sunday Age to call for a review of the temporary migration program. It came with a catchphrase of old Labor. “We need a migration program that puts Australian workers first,” she wrote.

    Morrison didn’t bite this week. Migration remains a moot point while the borders remain tightly controlled.

    For Labor, it was the wrong fight to pick in a pink-collar recession. Any appeal to the prejudices of older Australians, who are actually hanging on their jobs, will only divert attention from younger Australians who have been short-changed by the lockdown.

  39. I understand that Tim Smith was tested for the virus and came back negative for integrity and honesty.

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