Essential Research leadership ratings and coronavirus polling

As the contours of the Eden-Monaro by-election start to take shape, a new poll finds respondents highly satisfied with antipodean governments’ handling of coronavirus, and mindful of the less happy situation elsewhere in the anglosphere.

The Guardian reports Essential Research’s latest weekly round of coronavirus polling includes the pollster’s monthly leadership ratings, which have Scott Morrison’s approval at 64%, gaining a further five points after his 18-point hike a month ago. Anthony Albanese is down two to 42% — we must await the full report later today to see their disapproval ratings. Morrison holds a 50-25 lead as preferred prime minister, out from 46-27 last time (UPDATE: Full report here; both are at 27% disapproval, which is a four point drop in Morrison’s case and a two point drop in Albanese’s).

The most interesting of the latest tranche of coronavirus questions relate to other countries’ handling of the crisis, with 79% rating New Zealand’s response very good or good, whereas (if I’m reading this correctly) the United States’ response is rated very poor or poor by 71%, and the United Kingdom is similarly rated by 48%. Another question finds 57% support for maintaining Newstart either at its current level “after the current crisis passes” or aligning it with the rate for single pensioners, with only 28% in favour of returning it to its earlier level.

The poll also finds growing appetite for easing restrictions, with 37% now saying it is too soon to do so, down from 49% a fortnight ago, and 36% wanting restrictions eased over the next month or two, but still only 10% wanting them gone as soon as possible. Respondents were also presented with a series of propositions about school closures, which found 45% sayig schools should reopen, “half” saying schools should teach students remotely until the outbreak passes, and 41% saying they would keep their children at home even if schools reopened.

The latest news on the by-election front is that NSW Nationals leader John Barilaro has announced he will not run in Eden-Monaro, and Senator Jim Molan has likewise withdrawn his intention to pursue Liberal preselection, with both allowing a clear run for Andrew Constance, NSW Transport Minister and member for the seat of Bega, most of which is within Eden-Monaro. The by-election now looms as a straightforward contest between Labor and Liberal, with the Nationals sure to be only a minor presence in Barilaro’s absence, if indeed they run at all.

Constance was the subject of sympathetic media attention after nearly losing his Malua Bay house in the summer bushfires, a particularly helpful asset given the federal goverment’s handling of the fires loomed as its main liability in the campaign. He revealed in March that he would be quitting politics when the bushfire recovery was complete, albeit without making clear when that might be. The by-election that will now be required in Bega will thus be less disruptive than one in Barilaro’s seat of Monaro would have been, and the seat is also at less risk of being lost by the government. No indication so far as I can see as to who might be in the running in Bega.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,512 comments on “Essential Research leadership ratings and coronavirus polling”

Comments Page 63 of 71
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  1. You just can’t wish away the COVID virus. Opening gyms, allowing sports like boating and golf, and resuming church congregations may relieve those who feel their personal rights have been stymied, but it’s just too early to imagine this virus has been conquered.
    …
    This virus is less than four months old. We may have most of the world’s scientists working on developing a vaccine, repurposing old drugs and developing new ones – but the bottom line is that we simply do not know enough yet about how this virus works.

    It’s likely that other immune cells – such as T cells, macrophages and natural killer (NK) cells – are used by those infected to rid themselves of the virus. Thankfully, the virus doesn’t appear to mutate much, which makes the development of a universal vaccine easier, but its super power may be that, as appears to be the case for other human non-SARS coronaviruses, immunity wanes over time – so those of us who have been infected, and think we’re immune against developing or spreading the disease, may only be confident in that for a period of time.

    Whether it’s weeks or years, we simply don’t know.

    Which is the point behind those who worry that it’s too early to stop physical distancing, to remove the restrictions that, yes, are causing economic hardships.

    https://lens.monash.edu/@medicine-health/2020/05/06/1380308/coronavirus-loosening-covid-19-restrictions-now-is-not-a-good-idea

  4. lizzie @ #3101 Saturday, May 9th, 2020 – 12:44 pm

    You just can’t wish away the COVID virus. Opening gyms, allowing sports like boating and golf, and resuming church congregations may relieve those who feel their personal rights have been stymied, but it’s just too early to imagine this virus has been conquered.
    …
    This virus is less than four months old. We may have most of the world’s scientists working on developing a vaccine, repurposing old drugs and developing new ones – but the bottom line is that we simply do not know enough yet about how this virus works.

    It’s likely that other immune cells – such as T cells, macrophages and natural killer (NK) cells – are used by those infected to rid themselves of the virus. Thankfully, the virus doesn’t appear to mutate much, which makes the development of a universal vaccine easier, but its super power may be that, as appears to be the case for other human non-SARS coronaviruses, immunity wanes over time – so those of us who have been infected, and think we’re immune against developing or spreading the disease, may only be confident in that for a period of time.

    Whether it’s weeks or years, we simply don’t know.

    Which is the point behind those who worry that it’s too early to stop physical distancing, to remove the restrictions that, yes, are causing economic hardships.

    https://lens.monash.edu/@medicine-health/2020/05/06/1380308/coronavirus-loosening-covid-19-restrictions-now-is-not-a-good-idea

    Yeah, but Peggy wants her mummy. So, none of that counts.

  6. Victoria @ #2770 Saturday, May 9th, 2020 – 12:24 pm

    Pegasus

    It speaks to you. Not to style of management
    Andrews, who has been consistent from the get go.

    The emergency powers ends on may 11 and results of the two week testing blitz.

    Easing of restrictions was going to be announced after this and not before.

    Why should it matter. In fact if you care about mothers so much, people going through all on the one day to visit without knowing how the virus is behaving, is downright criminal.
    You are pathetic.

    The last sentence their says more about you, Victoria.

    We are all capable of making our points without that sort of nasty tone.

  7. Cheers Firefox and nath. Though I can more than look after myself your support is appreciated.

    I await another detractor or two or three to come out with the well-worn nicety trotted out during these exchanges …..”circle-jerk” lol

  8. Rex Douglas

    As I said I am over posters such as pegasus politicizing a pandemic. It is pathetic. I stand by it. Take it or leave it.

  9. Greensborough Growler @ #2794 Saturday, May 9th, 2020 – 12:46 pm

    lizzie @ #3101 Saturday, May 9th, 2020 – 12:44 pm

    You just can’t wish away the COVID virus. Opening gyms, allowing sports like boating and golf, and resuming church congregations may relieve those who feel their personal rights have been stymied, but it’s just too early to imagine this virus has been conquered.
    …
    This virus is less than four months old. We may have most of the world’s scientists working on developing a vaccine, repurposing old drugs and developing new ones – but the bottom line is that we simply do not know enough yet about how this virus works.

    It’s likely that other immune cells – such as T cells, macrophages and natural killer (NK) cells – are used by those infected to rid themselves of the virus. Thankfully, the virus doesn’t appear to mutate much, which makes the development of a universal vaccine easier, but its super power may be that, as appears to be the case for other human non-SARS coronaviruses, immunity wanes over time – so those of us who have been infected, and think we’re immune against developing or spreading the disease, may only be confident in that for a period of time.

    Whether it’s weeks or years, we simply don’t know.

    Which is the point behind those who worry that it’s too early to stop physical distancing, to remove the restrictions that, yes, are causing economic hardships.

    https://lens.monash.edu/@medicine-health/2020/05/06/1380308/coronavirus-loosening-covid-19-restrictions-now-is-not-a-good-idea

    Yeah, but Peggy wants her mummy. So, none of that counts.

    Bullies Pegasus, but doesn’t have the courage to unblock me and debate me.

  10. According to the WA paper the virus is over. This sort of signalling is dangerous, it’s not over just hiding in the wings waiting for people to loosen up and become complacent. In WA the lack of community spread means that Mother’s Day might not prove to be disastrous, but in Victoria where they have a cluster that has definitely reached into the community before detection I would be wanting the restrictions to stay in place. Andrews has been doing a great job and the Libs and their supporters are determined to undermine him.

  16. Apparently, asking a legitimately mild question about Saint Andrew, as anointed by some Labor hacks, is politicising the pandemic.

    Who kn

  17. I guess all the posts by the Labor hacks 24/7 about “Morriscum” and his handling of the pandemic are not “politicising” the pandemic.

    Who knew.

  18. Pegasus

    Bullshit. You once again politicised the pandemic to have a go at what the Victorian govt is doing.
    I dont actually give a shit who the leader is 0f any party. I am interested in how they manage a crisis.
    You on the other hand are a partisan hack.
    And you have been called out.

  19. Davidwh @ #2754 Saturday, May 9th, 2020 – 12:09 pm

    The polling numbers for Trad must be dire. Can see her seat going to the Greens. Also she would not be happy with today’s announcement on coal and gas.

    Trad wanting to hang around is bad news for Palaszczuk.

    I can see mixed messages coming out of Qld Labor as Trad will be appealing to environmentalists.

  21. Pegasus would have more credibility if there was an occasional criticism of how Morrison and co are tracking. Yeah but nah.

    Anyhoo, I’m bored with this discussion.

  22. What’s Albo stand for? Im buggered if I know.

    I don’t think anyone knows but it seems clear it is the Emersons and the Kouk’s kind of thinking that is dominating, and at their best they are ‘slightly nice trickle down’ fans.

  24. I read somewhere yesterday that the Government will not commit to maintaining the Jobseeker and Jobkeeper payments for the original intention of six months. I can imagine that Morrison will use this threat to force the states to open more quickly than they are inclined to do. States like Victoria could be left behind if they don’t open with the rest of Australia.

  25. According to the WA paper the virus is over.

    Anyone reading the West Australian pretty much gets zero sympathy from me, they want to be lied to and fooled by idiot racists.

  26. Victoria @ #3118 Saturday, May 9th, 2020 – 12:57 pm

    Pegasus

    Bullshit. You once again politicised the pandemic to have a go at what the Victorian govt is doing.
    I dont actually give a shit who the leader is 0f any party. I am interested in how they manage a crisis.
    You on the other hand are a partisan hack.
    And you have been called out.

    It’s exactly what Tim Smith has been doing. He got a bollocking for that stance as well.

  27. “I can see mixed messages coming out of Qld Labor as Trad will be appealing to environmentalists.”

    ***

    Ah yes, the old sitting on the fence trick! Now where have we seen that before…

  28. Assantdj

    According to the WA paper the virus is over.

    Yep, The Worst Australian newspaper has the the front page covered with a ‘Virus is Over’ giant headline. Some dickhead must have been “inspired” by the VE Day anniversary.

  30. WWP and Peg

    Talking about sitting on the population fence, when is Bandt going to announce the Greens target population for a sustainable Australia?
    Double it by 2050?

  31. David Crowe
    @CroweDM
    I’ve found
    @MarylouiseMcla1
    to be one of the great, measured, independent voices during this pandemic. Worth listening:
    Quote Tweet

    UNSW
    @UNSW
    · May 8
    “It’s a dangerous time to roll back the restrictions without knowing that we’re doing it safely in an atmosphere of very few hidden cases.”

    @UNSWMedicine epidemiologist and @WHO advisor, @MarylouiseMcla1 recommends Australian #COVID19 restrictions stay until at least June.
    Show this thread
    3:02
    17.5K views
    10:49 AM · May 9, 2020·Twitter Web App
    31
    Retweets
    43
    Likes
    kathryntherese
    @kathryntherese2
    ·
    1h
    Replying to
    @CroweDM
    and
    @MarylouiseMcla1
    In light of her insights I don’t understand LNP attacks on Dan Andrews
    He is being guided by medical advice and waiting on tens of thousands of test results
    It is disturbing the pressure and undermining by Katie Allen and Tim Wilson
    Morrison keeping politics out of it ??

  33. WeWantPaul @ #2812 Saturday, May 9th, 2020 – 1:03 pm

    What’s Albo stand for? Im buggered if I know.

    I don’t think anyone knows but it seems clear it is the Emersons and the Kouk’s kind of thinking that is dominating, and at their best they are ‘slightly nice trickle down’ fans.

    Albo looks to following Turnbulls lead of trying to unify a very broad Labor church. It’s impossible.

  35. V

    The Australian and the Greens like Peg and Tehan and Morrison are all attacking Andrews viciously.

    Why?

    Because they all want to destroy him.

    Coalition/Greens same old, same old.

  37. WeWantPaul
    You don’t need to read the paper to see the headline its in massive type on an almost empty front page. On entering our local IGA you would have to turn your head to not read it.

  39. “Anyone reading the West Australian”

    I really didn’t know anyone did – maybe some people read the back pages.

    As for people playing politics with the pandemic on the blog…

  40. Peg:’It speaks to his style of management .’

    Which, I for one am thankful. He is listening to the CHO and being cautious. He is not folding to populism stirred up by the Murdoch media.

    We are not on top of this pandemic in Victoria with 11 new cases today. Andrew’s actions show he is concerned about lives.

    And as he pointed out the other day, businesses don’t want a false start to reopening. They have their reserves and job keeper payments. If they open up and then have to close down again, their reserves are depleted and they will never re-start again.

    Do it once, do it properly. Don’t do a half arsed effort like the Liberals did with the NBN.

  41. The Victorian government does face a bit of a conundrum in terms of changing its course now in circumstances where it is the only jurisdiction in which active cases are going up.

  42. “Prime Minister Scott Morrison on Friday stood by the government’s plans to phase out the coronavirus supplement for JobSeeker recipients and the JobKeeper program from mid-September, saying they came at a significant cost that would have to be borne by future generations.”

    No surprise there in the least: everything the LNP does while in gubmint is ALWAYS going to be paid for by future generations. The party then suffers a massive hit of selective amnesia when removed from power at an election and proceeds to blame Labor for every single problem they created. Like I said, “No surprise there in the least.”

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/temporary-lifeline-hundreds-of-thousands-face-pre-christmas-income-hit-20200508-p54r67.html

  44. Andrews will be making announcements re easing restrictions starting Monday so I’m not sure why people are agitated.

    To be honest, the more he’s been politically attacked during his premiership the more his popularity has grown.

  45. GG just proved his stupidity again.

    I have been praising Daniel Andrews for not caving into bullies. That includes the pressure to “open up” by the arbitrary date of Mother’s Day.

  46. Kaitlan Collins
    @kaitlancollins
    · 2h
    News — Ivanka Trump’s personal assistant has tested positive for coronavirus, I’m told. The assistant, who works in a personal capacity, hasn’t been around Ivanka in several weeks & has been teleworking. Ivanka Trump & Jared Kushner both tested negative today, source says.

  47. GG, I don’t think Ivanka and Jared would be too worked if they were found to be positive, they apparently have speasy access to heaps of chloroquine which should be able to fix them up.

  49. says:
    Saturday, May 9, 2020 at 12:40 pm
    Firefox says:
    Saturday, May 9, 2020 at 12:39 pm

    “No one takes you seriously.”

    ***

    I take Peg far more seriously than I take you, GG, so you’re wrong.
    ____________
    Me 2. Pegasus is a serious contributor. GG is a warm up act and Hype man for BB.

    me three (3)! fwiw. -a.v.

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