Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

Modest shifts on the primary vote cause Newspoll’s two-party meter to tick in favour of Labor.

The latest fortnightly Newspoll, courtesy of The Australian, has Labor extending its two-party lead from 53-47 to 54-46. The primary votes are Coalition 36% (down one), Labor 39% (steady), Greens 9% (steady) and One Nation 7% (up two). Both leaders’ personal ratings have improved slightly, with Scott Morrison up one on approval to 43% and down three on disapproval to 45%, and Bill Shorten up one to 36% and down two to 51%. Scott Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is 43-36, in from 44-35. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1610.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

950 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. Ah, door-knocking.

    A Labor candidate told me he once went to Bob Hawke for advice on door-knocking.

    “Never knocked on a bloody door in my life,” said the Great Man.

    He didn’t have to.

  3. I hear Bill Shorten saying he’ll “give better and bigger tax cuts”.

    That means less funding for social services and infrastructure.

    It’s neo-lib rubbish, Bill.

  4. Fran Kelly was just getting warmed up eulogising Barnyard and his passion for coal when the segment cut straight to Bill in Qld who was taking all questions on what their plans are for the future.

  5. Joyce – he’s going the distance… he’s going for speed…

    Because he’s racing and pacing and plotting the course
    He’s fighting and biting and riding on his horse
    He’s going the distance
    No trophy, no flowers, no flashbulbs, no wine
    He’s haunted by something he cannot define
    Bowel-shaking earthquakes of doubt and remorse
    Assail him, impale him with monster-truck force
    In his mind, he’s still driving, still making the grade

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F_HoMkkRHv8

    OK – I will go wait in the car now.

  9. a r
    Monday, March 11th, 2019 – 12:00 pm
    Comment #388

    Thank you for your reply to my quest re—-Chrome and AFR paywall. I trust that others will have read and taken heed as well.

    Again. Thank you. I have been busy having my afternoon nanny nap and only just now read your post.

    🙏🐘🐨☕

  10. The door knocking and phone banking is not random, its targeted based on assessments of likely voting behaviour.

    grimace, I don’t want to bang on about it, but to me this is problematic. It may be very useful to know where to put limited resources, but targeting individuals for their vote is open to deliberate or accidental abuse and I would love to know how database use is monitored.

  11. Tim Wilson tweets, in reply to KK enumerating the quantum of franking cash back rorts…

    “You know these people are retired, can’t get a job and need that money to live off 20 or 30 years, right?”

    So Timmeh says putting your $1m into frank paying shares is all they have; not buying an allocated pension, nor in listed or unlisted funds, nor in growth stocks, nor in bank bills. And why not?

    Because earnings over $20k will attract tax, and we can’t have that

  12. BTW meeting up with a local lady who said she’s voted LNP her whole life and she’s totally fed up with the government. I didn’t proselytise the Labor position but took sustenance from her disaffection.

  13. Rex Douglas says:
    Monday, March 11, 2019 at 1:39 pm

    Barney in Cà Mau @ #500 Monday, March 11th, 2019 – 1:38 pm

    Rex, link?

    He just said it in this presser

    And what were his next words?

  14. zoomster @ #310 Monday, March 11th, 2019 – 7:49 am

    Ven

    ‘I think door knocking by both the parties is a very limited exercise ..’

    Door knocking is a very time intensive activity – I once allocated myself a normal residential block (as in an area within four major local roads) to get around, and spent every spare moment I could doing it, and still only got about 3/4 of the area done. It did pay off – the vote there was at least 10% better for Labor than neighbouring booths.

    Because it takes up so much time and resources, it’s targetted. There’s a lot of analysis done to work out which areas are going to produce the best outcomes. So if you live in a street where the vote appears to be solid for one major party, you’re unlikely to see anyone.

    For example, there are 70,000 houses in Indi. An ambitious doorknocking campaign would set 10,000 as a target. The chances of a particular house seeing a volunteer, even if that target was met, is quite low.

    You’re only targeting 10,000 doors in Indi? I don’t know what is normal in Labor, our campaign will dwarf that.

  15. C@tmomma @ #4911 Monday, March 11th, 2019 – 1:27 pm

    With a broad definition of what ‘Welfare’ is, ie taking money from the public purse, Pauline Hanson herself could be said to be on government welfare. So why don’t we start with her then? Although, she might be surprised to find out what her dna holds.

    Which just goes to the idiocy of the woman’s latest brain fart. How would anyone know who was an Aboriginal to test? You can have 1% of Indigenous dna and still be classed that way, if you want to identify thusly.

    Also, isn’t there a little thing called the Racial Discrimination Act that might just put a spanner in the works?

    It isn’t for us C@t. The Cockroach Right are panic stricken at present. Like the Rutting Rutabaga and Fraser Mosley Anning, the Orange Blight is “virtue”-signalling to the racist scum that fear Bill et al. (particularly the et Ali).

  17. Joyce is doing the old give me the job or I’ll wreck the place. History shows the Nats will always succumb to these types of blandishments.

    I’d guess Joyce being leader of the Nats might lead to a break of the coalition. That way Joyce will run on his coal fired power station to his constituents and Morrison will say it’s not going to happen to his.

    What could possibly go wrong?

  23. Tristo says:
    Monday, March 11, 2019 at 12:09 pm
    @zoomster

    I would argue the main reason, why we have had the disastrous Abbott-Turnbull-Morrison government, is because the Liberal and National parties (unlike Labor) have refused to implement gender quotas.

    If the Coalition had implemented gender quotas at the same time as Labor, a lot of the shocking policies implemented by this government might not have happened and we could have avoided this divisive Same Sex Marriage referendum.

    That is very debatable. Some of the women we have seen from the Liberals (not to mention the Nationals) have been absolutely woeful (think Bronwyn Bishop, Sophie Mirabella and Michaelia Cash for example); and in the US some of the shrews who represent the Republicans are just as bad, if not worse.

    As far as I can see, it is the ideology of the Liberals that leads to their bad policies not their gender makeup. Male or female, they all sing from the same song sheet. By all means, let’s strive for gender equality on the grounds of equity and fairness, but let’s not pretend that it is going to massively change the policy mix. It’s just not in the Liberal DNA to do that.

  25. (particularly the et Ali)
    rhwombat,
    Not to mention Aly, Khalid and Husic in the FPLP. Elect a Labor government and there will be Sharia Law! 🙂

  28. The most important thing for many, if not most politicians, is being re-elected. Marginal seat holders more so.

    In the face of likely loss, discipline breaks down. It is every Coalition man for himself (women can always go back to home duties).

    This Barnyard redux today a portent of what is to come

  31. I’m sure that as soon as there is an alternative for Coking Coal a federal Labor government will be happy to let the market die a natural death.

  33. Careful Rex, your true colours are shining through. And thats why I love you.

    OK OK – I wont link the song.

  34. Another excellent day for Shorten.

    He’s managed to piss Rex off.

    The man keeps kicking goals! 😆 😆

  36. Rex Douglas @ #532 Monday, March 11th, 2019 – 1:52 pm

    C@tmomma @ #523 Monday, March 11th, 2019 – 1:50 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #526 Monday, March 11th, 2019 – 1:49 pm

    Burgey @ #513 Monday, March 11th, 2019 – 1:45 pm

    Shorten is fucking nailing this press conference. He looks confident, across his brief and Prime Ministerial.

    He won’t take on Gina and her mates… happy to appease the polluters

    And you know that, how?

    “COAL WILL STILL BE IN OUR MIX”

    One does not equal the other. Your original assertion is simply alarmist cant.

  39. Late Riser @ #510 Monday, March 11th, 2019 – 10:40 am

    The door knocking and phone banking is not random, its targeted based on assessments of likely voting behaviour.

    grimace, I don’t want to bang on about it, but to me this is problematic. It may be very useful to know where to put limited resources, but targeting individuals for their vote is open to deliberate or accidental abuse and I would love to know how database use is monitored.

    No idea, I’m an order taking pleb when it comes to door knocking. I was a doubter when it came to big data based door knocking in the lead-up to the WA election. I’m now a convert. It’s very effective and the L/NP are 100% right to be in mortal fear of the progressive field campaigns.

  40. Rex Douglas @ #532 Monday, March 11th, 2019 – 12:52 pm

    C@tmomma @ #523 Monday, March 11th, 2019 – 1:50 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #526 Monday, March 11th, 2019 – 1:49 pm

    Burgey @ #513 Monday, March 11th, 2019 – 1:45 pm

    Shorten is fucking nailing this press conference. He looks confident, across his brief and Prime Ministerial.

    He won’t take on Gina and her mates… happy to appease the polluters

    And you know that, how?

    “COAL WILL STILL BE IN OUR MIX”

    1. It’s a factual statement (not for ever but for a few years at least)

    2. It might soothe a few of the more panicky members and voters worried about loss of jobs (which won’t happen anyway)

    Shorten would be derelict in his duty if he DIDN’T make a statement like this. Politicians in our system are not dictators – they need to worry about votes if they are to get anything actually changed.

  41. Coal will be in the mix while the existing coal fired power stations are still running.

    It’s unlikely new one will be built.

    It’s called transition .

    And to most people it will make sense.

  42. I’d agree with this, wholeheartedly.

    Van Badham
    ‏@vanbadham
    2h2 hours ago

    Personally, I support a generous pension scheme if the condition is that ex-parliamentarians are banned from taking any corporate income at retirement. Australia does not need more Martin Fergusons or Andrew Robbs milking their parliamentary experience for corporate largesse.

  46. @Tristo
    Yup

    From ABCpolitics twitter:

    “I understand what it takes to have a successful marriage.”

    Barnaby Joyce’s failed marriage has seemingly been dragged into the National Party’s leadership rumblings.

    By whom? Deputy Prime Minister, Michael McCormack.

    #auspol @abcnews

    Lol

  47. SK,
    You couldn’t leave this one out so soon after IWD 😉

    Short Skirt Long Jacket
    Cake
    I want a girl with a mind like a diamond
    I want a girl who knows what’s best
    I want a girl with shoes that cut
    And eyes that burn like cigarettes
    I want a girl with the right allocations
    Who’s fast, thorough, and sharp as a tack
    She’s playing with her jewelry
    She’s putting up her hair
    She’s touring the facilities
    And picking up slack
    I want a girl with a short skirt and a long jacket.
    I want a girl who gets up early
    I want a girl who stays up late
    I want a girl with uninterrupted prosperity
    Who uses a machete, to cut through red tape
    With fingernails that shine like justice
    And a voice that is dark like tinted glass
    She is fast, thorough, and sharp as a tack
    She’s touring the facilities and picking up slack
    I want a girl with a short skirt and a long, long jacket
    I want a girl with a smooth liquidation
    I want a girl with good dividends
    At City Bank we will meet accidentally
    We’ll start to talk when she borrows my pen
    She wants a car with a cup holder armrest
    She wants a car that will get her there
    She’s changing her name
    From Kitty to Karen
    She’s trading her MG for a white Chrysler LeBaron
    I want a girl with a short skirt and a long jacket

    https://youtu.be/X5KmB8Laemg

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