Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

Modest shifts on the primary vote cause Newspoll’s two-party meter to tick in favour of Labor.

The latest fortnightly Newspoll, courtesy of The Australian, has Labor extending its two-party lead from 53-47 to 54-46. The primary votes are Coalition 36% (down one), Labor 39% (steady), Greens 9% (steady) and One Nation 7% (up two). Both leaders’ personal ratings have improved slightly, with Scott Morrison up one on approval to 43% and down three on disapproval to 45%, and Bill Shorten up one to 36% and down two to 51%. Scott Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is 43-36, in from 44-35. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1610.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

950 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor”

  1. Yabba thinks that the best qualification to run as president of the United States is to be a highly paid bureaucrat. I despair. The bureaucrat bit I sort of get, but what does the salary have to with it? You sound like one of those red necks who was impressed by Trump being a millionaire. What a shallow fellow you are. I feel sorry for you.

  2. EB:

    I think Crabb is doing a great job so far. The conversation is flowing, she’s involving all panelists, and at appropriate junctures.

    Perhaps Jones should get the flick in favour of Crabb.

  3. “– – Facts count. Sanders is the Front Runner so far out of the Democratic Party Candidates – –
    Firstly that assumes Biden isnt running. Secondly, at this stage, polling for dem candidates is only a little more than a name recognition test.”

    Its still very early but I read the whispers that Elizabeth Warren star maybe waning. Warren refusing to challenge Hilary Clinton in 2016 despite being begged by the Left has certainly been viewed as a strategic mistake and handed all the momentum to Bernie Sanders. Apparently the Left are also very sceptical of Warren after she dodge questions if she would back Clinton or Sanders in 2016 which gave the view by some she was just another politician who was trying to have a bet each way. Its a shame considering Sanders age that Warren maybe a better choice to back this time around for the Left in the Democrats in 2020.

  4. On this day in 1983, the First Hawke Ministry was sworn in – with Sue Ryan as the only woman. Times have changed for the better

  5. Just returned from a meeting where the speaker was talking about the establishment of Great Forest National Park. They would like it to extend from east of Melbourne north to Seymour and east as far as Eildon.

    The clear felling currently used for paper pulp employs very few people now and is heavily subsidised. They believe the Forest could be better used for other purposes.

    I hope they are successful.

    https://www.greatforestnationalpark.com.au

  6. From GHV

    #Newspoll NSW State Primary Votes: L/NP 40 (+1) ALP 36 (0) GRN 10 (0) #nswvotes #auspol

    #Newspoll NSW State 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 50 (0) ALP 50 (0) #nswvotes #auspol

  7. In the ALP – women have 66.6 % of Marginal held seats and 33.4% of Safe ALP held seats
    In the Coalition- women have 75% of Marginal held seats and 33.% of Safe LNP held seats

    Not much difference in terms of women pre-selections for marginal v safe seats.

    However, 42 % of ALP people in the HOR are women compared to 19.0 % for the Liberal and a lousy 6.2% for the Nationals.

    Shorten wants 50% of ALP HOR members to be women by 2020 in accord with the Emily’s List goal; he is not far off already.

    I think the women’s vote will be more significant in this election than any other I can remember except for the MARK LATHAM fiasco election when he pulled the bully boy stand over against Howard way back when- The moment I saw this on the 6pm new I knew it was game over.

  8. People live in this world, not only women

    Poor behaviour needs to be called out no matter

    Gender does not come into it

    When I was confronted by my (then) employer in regard me having Custody proceedings at the Family Court of Australia the HR Chief Executive was a female – and a right bastard of the absolute first order

    And I was (also) successful at Court in the action I subsequently bought against my former employer

    The ultimate benefit to me (and I would suggest my children) was that I retired from the work place at 48 – so 25 years ago

  9. clem attlee @ #902 Monday, March 11th, 2019 – 10:14 pm

    Yabba thinks that the best qualification to run as president of the United States is to be a highly paid bureaucrat. I despair. The bureaucrat bit I sort of get, but what does the salary have to with it? You sound like one of those red necks who was impressed by Trump being a millionaire. What a shallow fellow you are. I feel sorry for you.

    keep digging

  10. Unusual mutual boost for leaders

    @GhostWhoVotes

    #Newspoll NSW Daley ALP: Approve 37 (+4) Disapprove 38 (-3) #nswvotes #auspol

    @GhostWhoVotes
    ·
    #Newspoll NSW Berejiklian LIB: Approve 44 (+3) Disapprove 38 (-5) #nswvotes #auspol

  11. EB

    Statistics, statistics and damn lies

    Bit like Bill Johnston leading the batting averages on an Ashes tour of the UK – averaging 103

    So 75% of 19%

    Versus 66% of 42%

    So 5 versus 30 (or thereabouts)

  12. “Pica, you lost me at the ‘colonial complicity’ bit. Take it easy.”

    That is exactly the bit we should think about…. bye for now Dogs.

  13. Just saw on the late night news a report on the Moomba Festival.

    I reside on the coast Central Qld.

    Wasn’t it great to see the Victorian Police marching with ‘those’ black african gang member types. Broad smiles all round and having a lot of fun.

    Eat shit Potato Head. Gawd I want to see the prick voted out.

  14. I also thought SHY did very well on tonight’s show. She missed a couple of obvious gimmes, eg the question from the 14yo about why he should feel guilt re #metoo, but Burney picked those up and dealt with them well.

    I’m genuinely surprised the federal parliament doesn’t have a cross party women’s network.

  15. EB

    Facts are facts

    No doubt my life and the circumstances I find myself in today set me apart from you – and obviously by a very, very wide margin given your reference

  16. With the current rash of female conservative candidates putting their hands up to
    topple the “male pale and stale” orthodoxy of the current L-NP setup (plus a couple
    of males, though they seem to be concentrated in the one electorate), I cast my mind
    back to a time slightly before my political maturation (thanks Wikipedia!).

    There was once a party, forged from disgust among some parliamentarians and citizens
    at the corrupt excesses and inertia of the major parties, in the wake of another
    reactionary “assert the phallus” moment. A group sworn to blazing a third way, and
    “keeping the bastards honest”.

    Yes – the Australian Democrats!

    I love counterfactual stories … imagine if Meg Lees had just told Howard to shove his GST
    where it fitted in 1999. In 2019 we could still have a viable and dynamic party that would
    have been the refuge of choice for the current public office aspirants looking for a place
    that validated their attraction to 21st century social thinking and technology, and probably
    didn’t care much about how you made your money. And all without having to mingle with
    either uncouth blue-collar types, or weird hippies who can’t tell a Balenciaga from a Prada.

    Except in our universe, the Democrats de-registered in 2015. Pity that.

  17. Observer says:
    Monday, March 11, 2019 at 11:03 pm
    EB

    Facts are facts

    No doubt my life and the circumstances I find myself in today set me apart from you – and obviously by a very, very wide margin given your reference-

    The difference is I don’t feel the need to blow my own trumpet every time I comment on something in PB. You know nothing about me but I know enough about you because you tell us so often. Yet you can’t read statistics properly. Too funny.

  18. jeffemu says:
    Monday, March 11, 2019 at 10:56 pm
    Just saw on the late night news a report on the Moomba Festival.

    I reside on the coast Central Qld.

    Wasn’t it great to see the Victorian Police marching with ‘those’ black african gang member types. Broad smiles all round and having a lot of fun.


    Awesome. Andrew Bolt will make a fuss over that for sure, the moron. Something along the lines of inappropriate use of tax payer money.

  19. Can you “develop” autism, or are you born with it, ie, it’s a genetic thing? I thought the latter, but would be pleased to learn more.

  20. Exceptional talent in that first Hawke cabinet.
    My favourite was little Johnny Button, all five foot three of him. Architect of the Button plan.
    True warrior, sadly the lung biscuits got him.

  21. Observer

    Not forgetting Kerry O’Keeffe topping the batting averages in the 1977 Ashes tour – 62.5

    I actually wonder whether he could have batted higher in the order generally – he had pretty good technique and opened in the second innings of the Centenary Test (Rick McCosker broken Jaw) making a serviceable contribution in a 33 run opening stand.

  22. Fulvio Sammut says:
    Monday, March 11, 2019 at 11:21 pm
    Can you “develop” autism, or are you born with it, ie, it’s a genetic thing? I thought the latter, but would be pleased to learn more.


    Genetics Fulvio – you have it or you don’t but autism per se represents a wide spectrum including Aspergers which my son has. It stays dormant in some but can be triggered by traumatic events like placenta previa where the baby dosen’t get enough oxygen in gestation.

  23. dave @ #936 Monday, March 11th, 2019 – 11:42 pm

    A R – if you are around – Ta for that “turn off Java Script” tip.

    Works a treat. 🙂

    We are very, very fortunate to have AR to assist with our blogging.

    Tomorrow morning I will post a reference to download “Anti-Paywall” for Chrome which will enable the reading of –
    The Australian
    The Daily Telegraph
    Washington Post
    NT Times
    Plus a bucket of others.

    Very useful.

  24. Fun and Games. Courier Mail lead.

    QUEENSLAND Nationals are privately warning they will not be sacrificed to save inner-city, Liberals seats and are not ruling out divorcing themselves from an election campaign that is anti-coal.

    In an extraordinary day of political sparring and apparent barbs about failed marriages between Barnaby Joyce and Deputy Prime Minister Michael McCormack, it was Scott Morrison who shocked most Nationals MPs by appearing to wave the white flag on supporting a new coal-fired power station.

    Last night Nationals were left trying to decipher what it would mean for their campaign for a new power station, and how they could find a resolution to the impasse.

    Mr Morrison said yesterday he was “practical” and the State Government would not approve a new coal-fired generator.

    In response, key Nationals MP George Christensen exclusively told The Courier-Mail that Labor would not be in power forever in Queensland and now was the time to act.

    “It is absolutely true that the State Labor Government will not allow a power station to be built in North Queensland but the State Labor Government is not going to be in power for ever,’’ Mr Christensen said.

    “Right now we have the opportunity to fund all the pre-construction work, design capability, location, all of that work ready for when the LNP comes to power in Queensland to build the thing that could be in late 2020.

    “I have been running a petition for a website, powerthenorth.com.au and I have thousands of signatures in support of a clean coal fired power station in the north.

    “I am pushing for and will continue to push for … a clean coal fired power station in the north.

    It is understood Mr Morrison contacted some MPs last night to tell them his policy hadn’t changed but he was just slapping down Mr Joyce.

    But privately, some tacticians within the LNP warned that some Queenslanders would break from the national campaign if it was clear it was anti-coal and inner-city seats were favoured.

    On Monday Brisbane’s Trevor Evans told Fairfax newspapers the party room would not support a government-backed coal fired power station.

    Earlier in the day, Mr Joyce lobbed grenades at Mr Morrison and his own leader — declaring he remained the “elected Deputy Prime Minister” and that his party was “not married to the Liberals”.

    It sparked an extraordinary, seemingly pointed personal attack from Mr McCormack who said he “understood what it takes to make a marriage work”.

    But the attack left the under-pressure DPM in a worse position, with some of his colleagues privately suggesting the upcoming election was all that was keeping him in the top job.

    The sensational spat followed the latest Newspoll which shows the Coalition is facing an electoral bloodbath at the May poll, with some of the most marginal seats in the country in Nationals territory in north Queensland.

    https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/coalition-divided-on-coal-actual-deputy-pms-future-in-the-balance/news-story/6b449eca49e9590e615507f86cdc636d

  25. Fun and Games. Courier Mail lead.

    QUEENSLAND Nationals are privately warning they will not be sacrificed to save inner-city, Liberals seats and are not ruling out divorcing themselves from an election campaign that is anti-coal.

    In an extraordinary day of political sparring and apparent barbs about failed marriages between Barnaby Joyce and Deputy Prime Minister Michael McCormack, it was Scott Morrison who shocked most Nationals MPs by appearing to wave the white flag on supporting a new coal-fired power station.

    I have never made but one prayer to God, a very short one:

    ‘O Lord make my enemies ridiculous.’

    And God granted it.

    Voltaire

  26. @ dave

    I have never made but one prayer to God, a very short one:

    ‘O Lord make my enemies ridiculous.’

    And God granted it.

    Voltaire
    ———————————————————————————-
    Amen to that.

  27. This evening I attended a public forum in Wanneroo organised by the local Labor MP, Sabine Winton, on the upcoming End of Life Choices law to be debated in the WA Parliament. This is the first such forum to be held on the law. More than 200 members of the public were present at the meeting which was addressed by Amber Jade Sanderson, Alannah MacTiernan and Sabine; and which was followed by an open Q&A period.

    This was one of the best such events I’ve attended. It was notable for the absence of political point-scoring, the sensitivity of both the questions and the answers, and the large number who came to listen, speak and demonstrate support for the proposed law.

    It really does show democracy is alive and well in WA. Those present also included two past Labor members for Wanneroo – Di Guise and Jackie McKiernan (Watkins), both much admired out here on the northern front.

    I also met another friend – an activist with Dying with Dignity – who’s also a member of the Gs. No political points were notched up.

  28. Labor women really rock in the northern suburbs of Perth. They are highly effective, popular and energetic. They are one of the reasons Labor is doing so well in WA.

  29. It’s surprising that all 737 Max8 haven’t been grounded.

    That’s 2 in about 4 months in similar circumstances.

    From what I’ve read both Boeing and the regulator have big questions to answer.

    It seems classing it as a 737 is stretching the truth and that has had implications on what pilots needed to do to be rated to fly one.

    Boeing 737 MAX 8 fleets grounded by China, Indonesia as black box from Ethiopian Airlines crash found

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-11/boeing-737-max-fleet-grounded-china-indonesia-ethiopian-airlines/10890890

  30. Tom Uren was the one I admired in the Hawke cabinet . I, as a new Australian ,was unaware of who he was and at a function about 10 years ago I was looking at photos of Japan when this gentle elderly man asked me if I had been to Japan. I mentioned how I was lucky enough to have lived there and it was only later when I returned to my table that I found out who he was. He was still politically involved in environmental issues at that time .
    My impression was one of a dignified conviction politician , modesty personified.

  31. jeffemu @ #927 Monday, March 11th, 2019 – 10:56 pm

    Just saw on the late night news a report on the Moomba Festival.

    I reside on the coast Central Qld.

    Wasn’t it great to see the Victorian Police marching with ‘those’ black african gang member types. Broad smiles all round and having a lot of fun.

    Eat shit Potato Head. Gawd I want to see the prick voted out.

    You and the rest of Australia!

    Have you also noticed how Bill Shorten and Labor are being seen with members of the South Sudanese community too? 🙂

  32. And yet….

    SHOCKING: Vision shows the moment a woman is pushed to the ground by a Protective Services Officer during an arrest in Melbourne’s CBD. #9News
    Story:9Soci.al/JtsV30nZAGV

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