Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

Modest shifts on the primary vote cause Newspoll’s two-party meter to tick in favour of Labor.

The latest fortnightly Newspoll, courtesy of The Australian, has Labor extending its two-party lead from 53-47 to 54-46. The primary votes are Coalition 36% (down one), Labor 39% (steady), Greens 9% (steady) and One Nation 7% (up two). Both leaders’ personal ratings have improved slightly, with Scott Morrison up one on approval to 43% and down three on disapproval to 45%, and Bill Shorten up one to 36% and down two to 51%. Scott Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is 43-36, in from 44-35. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1610.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

950 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor”

  1. – – Facts count. Sanders is the Front Runner so far out of the Democratic Party Candidates – –
    Firstly that assumes Biden isnt running. Secondly, at this stage, polling for dem candidates is only a little more than a name recognition test.

  2. Interesting re Sanders. He temporarily joined the Democratic Party in 2016 to run in the Primary.

    Along with his 2019 campaign announcement, he said he would abide by a new Democratic Party rule for presidential candidates and would affirm his membership in that party. On March 5, 2019, he signed a formal statement, known as a “loyalty pledge,” that he is a member of the Democratic Party and will serve as a Democrat if elected., Wikipedia

  3. – – AOC discusses the insidious nature of undemocratic influences on the political process. – –
    This topic is where she really impresses me. She is a force when speaking about it and when asking questions in Committees.

  4. AOC is not the messiah. She’s just a smart, loquacious, photogenic young Member of Congress. She’s no female Obama either.

  5. Simon² Katich® @ #854 Monday, March 11th, 2019 – 9:23 pm

    – – AOC discusses the insidious nature of undemocratic influences on the political process. – –
    This topic is where she really impresses me. She is a force when speaking about it and when asking questions in Committees.

    Dare I say it’s not rocket science. Such things are as plain as day to see these days, but good on her for bringing the issue to light.

  6. Boerwar @ #349 Monday, March 11th, 2019 – 8:11 pm

    Big A Adrian
    There are very rapid technical advances in data ATM.
    At least 60,000 looks very, very strong now.
    The 120,000 looks more tenuous but Bowler seems quite unequivocal about it.

    60,000 or 120,000, or some other number. This land, this nation, wears a profound depth of human past. I don’t have the tools to appreciate it. But the simple massive time scale involved dwarfs any history I’ve learned. That depth can give us who live today a feeling of place, a pride and an identity if we allow it and accept our part. People are a force of nature.

  7. SK

    That’s why I put the words so far.
    I am expecting Biden to run. I just have a little more doubt now due to the delay. The longer he leaves it the more doubt I have he thinks he will win.

    However it’s not a big criteria so I remain in the expect Biden to run category

  8. Clem, you are full of it.

    Extract from Michelle Obama’s career:
    “In 1991, she held public sector positions in the Chicago city government as an Assistant to the Mayor, and as Assistant Commissioner of Planning and Development. In 1993, she became Executive Director for the Chicago office of Public Allies, a non-profit organization encouraging young people to work on social issues in nonprofit groups and government agencies.[26] She worked there nearly four years and set fundraising records for the organization that still stood 12 years after she left.[20] Obama later said that she had never been happier in her life prior to working “to build Public Allies”.[77]

    In 1996, Obama served as the Associate Dean of Student Services at the University of Chicago, where she developed the University’s Community Service Center.[78] In 2002, she began working for the University of Chicago Hospitals, first as executive director for community affairs and, beginning May 2005, as Vice President for Community and External Affairs.[79]

    She continued to hold the University of Chicago Hospitals position during the primary campaign of 2008, but cut back to part-time in order to spend time with her daughters as well as work for her husband’s election.[80] She subsequently took a leave of absence from her job.[81]

    According to the couple’s 2006 income tax return, her salary was $273,618 from the University of Chicago Hospitals, while her husband had a salary of $157,082 from the United States Senate. The Obamas’ total income was $991,296, which included $51,200 she earned as a member of the board of directors of TreeHouse Foods, and investments and royalties from his books.[82] ”

    Obviously completely unqualified.

  9. Firstly that assumes Biden isnt running. Secondly, at this stage, polling for dem candidates is only a little more than a name recognition test.

    Yep.

  10. I was discussing with a co-worker today how bizarre it is that the Iowa Caucuses are on 3rd February 2020, nearly a year away – the first real test of voters.

    For the 2016 election, the Democratic Party debates started in October 2015. This year they are planning to start in June 2019, with a maximum of twenty candidates, with the first two ‘debates’ in June and July each over two nights – presumably with half the candidates on each night of the pairs.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/14/us/politics/democratic-debates-2020.html

  11. Boerwar says:
    Monday, March 11, 2019 at 7:48 pm
    This may (MAY) mean that human habitation goes back to 120,000 years ago rather than the currently commonly accepted 60-70,000 years ago.

    I must say that I have always kind of supported the 120,000 year theory for biogeographical reasons. That is when large scale movement towards fire dependent euc vegetation started.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/postcolonial-blog/2019/mar/11/a-big-jump-people-might-have-lived-in-australia-twice-as-long-as-we-thought

    ___________________________________________

    The Hills East of Lake George between Canberra and Goulburn are ancient Sand dunes and evidence of fire induced change in the vegetation was carbon dated to 100,000+ years . I too noticed the recent trend amongst those ‘in the know’ that the First Australians were here from 60-70 thousand years ago but when I as made aware of the Lake George sites it was a few decades ago and I always wondered why the earlier dates were favoured.
    FWIIW there were skeletal remains in the Mungo area representing both modern(gracile) and older (robust) forms which suggested a more complex development of human habitation in Australia.

  12. Yep in terms of running a department, as in being politically responsible, she is clearly unqualified. Being an assistant in a public service role is not the same as being politically responsible. That doesn’t even address the fact that she has zero political experience, as in running for office. A highly predictable response from you Yabba. Nice try, but no cigar. I give you a c+ for effort.

  13. AOC is a lot smarter than Obama on the issues. Obama was Neoliberal Central as far as policy goes, and that prevented him from being a transformative president. AOC is likely to make a much bigger positive impact on American history than Barack Obama.

  14. Barnyard was up at sparrow’s fart carpet bombing the media, all day to and fro with the media, and to round it out

    .@PMOnAir: Will you do anything to try to become the Nationals leader before the next election?

    @Barnaby_Joyce: I would be the last one to change to be the leader before the election – we’ve got to just get through it.

    MORE: bit.ly/2CcKkDC #pmlive

  15. – – AOC is not the messiah. She’s just a smart, loquacious, photogenic young Member of Congress. She’s no female Obama either. – –
    We gotta stop comparing peeps to Obama – either favourably or unfavourably. Repugs are doing that to O’Rourke to some effect.

    She argues well. She turns interviewers questions upside down and shakes out the decades long BS that has created them. She will get young people thinking about politics, engaged with the inequalities, unfairness and corruption that has stained the system and get them out to vote. She is a vibrant and dangerous piece of artillery against corrupting powers in US democracy.

  16. “Yep in terms of running a department, as in being politically responsible, she is clearly unqualified. That doesn’t even address the fact that she has zero political experience, as in running for office.”

    You keep nominating qualifications that manifestly have nothing to do with success in attaining the role.

    The only mandatory criteria for becoming president is popularity.

  17. Gecko says:
    Monday, March 11, 2019 at 9:04 pm
    Dogs breakfast
    My younger sister was a thalidomide baby. She died 6 weeks old. My mother never forgave herself. Arseholes like Wade are beyond description.

    _____________________________________________

    Very sad, there were obviously a wide range of presentations of thalidomide damage. I remember one boy who attended the boarding school some years after I left and his level of independence was astounding despite having no arms at all.
    The guilt of mother’s was a something dealt with in depth by the ‘Australian Story’ episode. Apparently just one tablet in the first two months would cause deformities.

  18. sprocket:

    I’ve never seen her before, so likely no.

    I recall Psephos once referring to her as a ‘Howard Pot Plant’, stuck in the corner and largely forgotten.

  19. OMG

    Five minutes into Q @A and I’m awarding this month’s [Bring Back] Tony award to the host, Annabelle Crapp.

    A good panel of women talking about women in government and its messed up by a dopey host. Ughh.

    When i give the dope award for women it will be with this symbol – the public purse

  20. AR, let me say this just once more. I am referring to qualities that would make her a success, not ones that would enable her to win. In saying that, I do not see politics as some do, as some sort of superficial swim suit contest. I actually feel that experience and commitment are attractive qualities.

  21. And as chance would have it, the latest episode of The Circus on Stan is about the rise of “the left” in the Democratic Party. They interviewed the architect of the 1992 Clinton campaign and he says that the times are different now, and that he would probably not do the same as he did back then.

    They also say that Bill De Blasio, the Democratic Mayor of New York City is “considering” a run for POTUS.

    If he does I’d imagine he’d be near the top of the “popularity” tables of the nominees thus far.

  22. I note the reference to the RBA Report on the impact of the Cash Rate on house prices

    What we do know is that post the introduction of the GST and the impact on GDP where 2 negative quarters is a technical recession, impetus was given to the housing market courtesy also of non means tested First Home Owners Grants etc etc

    And recession was averted

    By RBA 10 Year data we know that in January 2000 we owed $335 Billion to our home mortgage lenders

    As at January 2010, the amount owed had escalated to $1.226 Trillion (noting the impact of the GFC saw our lenders stall their lending from 2008)

    Further, in regards the growth of that debt, we had inflation driving interest rates up including in 2007 during an election year and then during an election campaign, both unprecedented

    The 10 Year Bond Yield reached 7.26% – now 2.03%

    I do not know what the growth of our home mortgage debt has been since January 2010, but have read the figure is now at $1.7 Billion – and if that is the case the rate of growth of this home mortgage debt has moderated since January 2010 and particularly from the level of growth from 2000 until 2010

    So I have doubts as to the summary – based on RBA published data no less

    And that is before we arrive at where the Cash Rate is now (and further cuts are projected) and the reasons as enunciated by Lowe and in Board Minutes

    Given Lowe and Shorten were on the same stage last Thursday both speaking to a wages growth recession and the impacts I am skeptical

    Is this an attempt to impinge on the independence of the RBA and to discredit given the preceding paragraph?

    The data says what it says – and it is RBA data

    The GFC was now 11 years ago – and the Cash Rate has only gone down since, never up

    No doubt this has given advantage to borrowers (over savers) but one of the considerations in where that Cash Rate has been over the past 11 years has been that home mortgage debt which was at $1.226 Trillion in January 2010 – and that for the past 5 years we have had a wages recession (before we get to the Terms and Conditions of employment including the impact on Penalty Rates)

    I query the content and veracity of the Report -and am a dissenting voice

  23. EB

    Virginia Trioli is much better in this role. It would be good to see Patricia Karvelas and Emma Alberici too as some people I would like to see host QandA.

  24. Sandra Sully Twitter:

    Nasty rumblings in @The_Nationals with ministers deserting left, right and centre, so it’s little wonder the government has just lost its fiftieth straight opinion poll and what’s worse is the gap is getting wider. | @vanOnselenP #auspol

  25. – – Obama was Neoliberal Central as far as policy goes, and that prevented him from being a transformative president.- –
    I disagree. Yes, he didnt deliver on his promise, but he was terribly hamstrung by circumstance.

    The changes that are needed in that country are not something one man or woman can achieve. Nor in one term or two.

  26. And thank you C@t!!!

    Douglas and Milko you are a champion! Thank you for helping the ALP after a long day at work. My stint begins tomorrow at 8am.

  27. “AOC is a lot smarter than Obama on the issues. Obama was Neoliberal Central as far as policy goes, and that prevented him from being a transformative president. AOC is likely to make a much bigger positive impact on American history than Barack Obama.”

    Wrong. The “progressives” and the “moderates” in congress couldn’t get their shit together in the 18 month window when they had control of both houses to pass consistent bills in both the house and the senate on the minimum wage (and wage fixation going forward), climate change and even health care (until right at the end) and the golden opportunity was lost. If you honestly think AOC will improve on that outcome, you are either deluded or she will need a hell of lot of growing up to build an enduring consensus – probably both.

  28. clem attlee @ #867 Monday, March 11th, 2019 – 9:36 pm

    Yep in terms of running a department, as in being politically responsible, she is clearly unqualified. Being an assistant in a public service role is not the same as being politically responsible. That doesn’t even address the fact that she has zero political experience, as in running for office. A highly predictable response from you Yabba. Nice try, but no cigar. I give you a c+ for effort.

    As I said, you are full of it. Obviously, as a Vice President of Chicago University Hospitals (an enormous non-profit organisation, with an operating revenue of $1.7 billion) on a salary of $273,618 in 2006, she was a mere paper shuffler. You are a prat. You are also wrong. c+ ? You didn’t even turn up for the first tutorial. I recommend that you learn to read before commenting on matters that are beyond you.

  29. Dan

    I dont see Bill de Blasio as being that popular across the US. Hes copping a bit of heat in NYC atm over problems with the MTA subway and potential line shut downs.

  30. guytaur says:
    Monday, March 11, 2019 at 9:50 pm
    EB

    Virginia Trioli is much better in this role. It would be good to see Patricia Karvelas and Emma Alberici too as some people I would like to see host QandA.

    Confessions says:
    Monday, March 11, 2019 at 9:50 pm
    EB:

    She’s not too bad, at least she’s not interrupting like Jones usually does.

    YEP Karvelis would have been my pick but I AM biased against A. Crapp I confess.

  31. A very sad story tonight on “Australian Story” re. the devastating effects of thalidomide, claimed to treat nausea, anxiety, insomnia, gastritis, and tension during pregnancy. Hunt had/has the authority to recommend to Cabinet ex gratia payments to those who accepted a pittance and signed away any further claim on the company responsible. All he did was to set aside funds to create a memorial garden. How kind of him, when this government wastes public money on so many hare-brained projects. I hope when Labor comes to office, it will review Hunt’s decision re. these very needy people, who’ve suffered unbearably and whose lives are coming to a premature end.

    I would also add – again – that Senator Jordon Steele-John is a very impressive young man.

  32. Zoidlord @ #893 Monday, March 11th, 2019 – 9:59 pm

    Jamesonmurph twitter:

    Barnaby Joyce’s seat of New England to be 4.5 degrees hotter by 2050 according to climate change report #auspol

    https://www.northerndailyleader.com.au/story/5946705/new-england-to-be-45-degrees-hotter-by-2050-report/?cs=12

    From that article …

    “There is no policy in Australia that will be able to change the nation’s temperature for hotter or colder,” Mr Joyce said.

    This is just plain wrong. We could stop exporting coal. This would have a significant impact on global warming.

  33. IoM @ #891 Monday, March 11th, 2019 – 6:58 pm

    Dan

    I dont see Bill de Blasio as being that popular across the US. Hes copping a bit of heat in NYC atm over problems with the MTA subway and potential line shut downs.

    I was referring to the tables being more an exercise in name recognition at this stage.

    At this stage, because the field is so wide open, nominating a front runner or even an eventual nominee is an exercise in coin tossing. Or even numerology.

  34. SK

    That’s why US politics has changed. Look at how far the Demographics changed in the Midterms.

    We know as a result in the 2020 elections there will be less gerrymandering and more eligible voters in Florida.
    Where both President Obama and Eric Holder are making a real impact is addressing the electoral problems.

    The Supreme Court has struck down some of the gerrymandering maps too.

    The Democrats will do better in the Senate. The Democrats made gains in the states legislatures and Governors races.

    Voter Turnout is the key. The Democrats base is energised by people like AOC and other new diverse members in the House.

    Trump is battling to keep support of his base. He is not reaching the Independent’s he needed to win the electoral college.
    The very big field of candidates for President shows that Democrat enthusiasm.

    Biggest amongst those that support people like AOC. As Stacy Abraham’s proved and Beta O Rourke proved. Running from the left makes you electable.

    The Democrats have learnt. Don’t talk bipartisanship the GOP don’t know the meaning of the word.

  35. “FWIIW there were skeletal remains in the Mungo area representing both modern(gracile) and older (robust) forms which suggested a more complex development of human habitation in Australia.”

    One of the great archeological ruses of our times. Both gracile and robust humans can be found in any population, suggesting that there were 2 possible settlements of humans is both wrong and invites all sorts of colonial complicity as, hey, they have been invaded before, so no big deal if we invade again……it is apologist bullshit.

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