Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

Modest shifts on the primary vote cause Newspoll’s two-party meter to tick in favour of Labor.

The latest fortnightly Newspoll, courtesy of The Australian, has Labor extending its two-party lead from 53-47 to 54-46. The primary votes are Coalition 36% (down one), Labor 39% (steady), Greens 9% (steady) and One Nation 7% (up two). Both leaders’ personal ratings have improved slightly, with Scott Morrison up one on approval to 43% and down three on disapproval to 45%, and Bill Shorten up one to 36% and down two to 51%. Scott Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is 43-36, in from 44-35. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1610.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

950 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor”

  1. Interesting analysis from the RBA has popped up in The Australian

    https://outline.com/ttss2d

    Surging house prices in Australia over the past decade were caused mainly by the Reserve Bank’s campaign to slash the official interes­t rate to record low levels, according to a groundbreaking study by the central bank.

    It found that, all else being equal, a 1 per cent drop in interest rates would, over the long run, boost house prices by 17 per cent.

    The cash rate has been slashed from 4.75 per cent throughout most of 2011 to its current record-low level of 1.5 per cent as the central bank attempte­d to offset the end of the mining boom and encourage activit­y in the housing and consumption sector.

    Someone recently wrote something like “Imagine what would happen to house prices if everyone was able to access a ten million dollar loan. Now imagine what would happen if the most anyone could access was one hundred thousand.”

  2. Darn

    [He also said that Daley’s upbraiding of Alan Jones was a clever tactic and that Jones deserved it. If I wasn’t hearing this stuff with my own ears I wouldn’t believe it. ]

    He did not say that Jones deserved it. Rule 1 of 2Gb club. No one crosses Jones or Hadley especially some Victorian blow-in.

  3. Chinda63 says:
    Monday, March 11, 2019 at 8:02 pm
    The Libs are heavily spruiking their anti-franking credit petition on … wait for it … realestate.com.au.
    Because we all know that’s where most cash-strapped retirees spend their time when online

    I have seen the advertisement twice…wait for it… pollbludger.com.au

  4. Andrew_Earlwood @ #787 Monday, March 11th, 2019 – 7:55 pm

    “Have to laugh at those exercising their wishful thinking re Michelle Obama. Let’s look at her qualifications.

    1. Held a local government post, run for a local legislature? Nup
    2. Held a state government post, or run for a state legislature? Nup.
    3. Held a federal government post. or run for federal legislature? Nup?
    4 Can point to a significant independent professional achievement, not associated with being first lady? Nup”

    I totally agree. Love Michelle, but elected office is not for her. If she aspired to it, she’d have taken a different path than the one she has walked. I wish her all the best for her chosen path, not the one others have imagined for her.

    A bloke named Burnside has a similar “No” profile!

  5. Shellbell says:
    Monday, March 11, 2019 at 8:27 pm
    Darn

    [He also said that Daley’s upbraiding of Alan Jones was a clever tactic and that Jones deserved it. If I wasn’t hearing this stuff with my own ears I wouldn’t believe it. ]

    He did not say that Jones deserved it. Rule 1 of 2Gb club. No one crosses Jones or Hadley especially some Victorian blow-in

    That’s what I heard him say Shellbell. Are you listening to the program and if so, what do you think he said?

  6. Andrew “meh” Earlwood is annoyed that Democratic voters don’t share his lackadaisical attitude towards high stakes issues, don’t share his ageism, and don’t share his discomfort about a young woman exercising power and charisma.

    Centrists are in for a few surprises next year, that’s for sure.

    Their read on the state of presidential politics in the Democratic Party is seriously amiss.

  7. Darn

    I was and I heard the begrudging praise of Daley and the bit about Jones and the tactic but not criticism of Jones. It is unthinkable.

  8. 1. Held a local government post, run for a local legislature? Nup
    2. Held a state government post, or run for a state legislature? Nup.

    I don’t know who wrote this but Michelle Obama has held a number of positions in local and state government in Chicago, including serving on boards of various institutions. At one point for a while her salary was significantly greater than that of her husband.

    4 Can point to a significant independent professional achievement, not associated with being first lady? Nup”

    Michelle Obama is actually an accomplished lawyer and scholar.

  9. Clearly Michelle Obama could win the democratic nomination, heck she could win the presidency, but look what happens when a completely unqualified and uncommitted candidate succeeds in doing just that. Methinks you are the one to have missed the point TPFO. Not for the first time either!

  10. A professional achievement is not qualifying for a degree. It is achieving policies and achieving real reform. Yeah she has sat on some boards. So what. That is not the same as running and winning. It is not the same as suffering the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune, year after year. This is the same mentality that would have a certain celebrated black talk show host as a candidate. Seriously? She is probably more qualified, at least her money has established some charitable institutions. There is no substitute for doing the hard yards of campaigning and in actually being responsible for running something… not a board, not a PTA, but a state, a department, heck even a local council.

  11. shellbell says:
    Monday, March 11, 2019 at 8:38 pm
    Darn

    I was and I heard the begrudging praise of Daley and the bit about Jones and the tactic but not criticism of Jones. It is unthinkable.

    Fair enough Shellbell. If you were actually listening then maybe your interpretation is more accurate than mine. I don’t mind acknowledging that.

  12. Watching “Australian Story” on the fight by Thalidamide victims to receive proper treatment. Harrie Wade (Country Party Senator) Health Minister refused to let parents know about the warnings sent to the Government for more than 6 months claiming it would cause undue concern.
    Could be a candidate for “Arsehole of the century”?

  13. Don’t need RBA to tell me that low interest rates drove market mad.

    I remember what I could borrow back in the day at 13.5 per cent.

    No 90 or 95 per cent of valuation loans from commonwealth bank either.

  14. “A bloke named Burnside has a similar “No” profile!”

    To be fair, running to be a legislator in the Australian parliament is a bit different than running for President.

    If Michelle Obama wanted that, she’s do a Hillary and run for legislative office first. But she doesn’t want that. Good on her. I’m not a fan of dynasties.

  15. Question here, if Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez was an Aussie and got elected as a Australian Greens senator, how popular would she be among the voting public?

    So popular that the ALP would do everything they could to get her away from the Greens and into the ALP.

  16. BW@ 7.48…

    when I was in high school in the early 90s we were taught about the “inhabited for 120 thousand years and possibly even longer” theory. It almost seemed the mainstream accepted view back then. But it was only a few years later the theory seemed to lose favour. Cant remember but I seem to recall some disputes about the accuracy of some particular carbon dating? Yet now it would seem its making a comeback?

  17. Andrew_Earlwood @ #824 Monday, March 11th, 2019 – 8:48 pm

    “A bloke named Burnside has a similar “No” profile!”

    To be fair, running to be a legislator in the Australian parliament is a bit different than running for President.

    If Michelle Obama wanted that, she’s do a Hillary and run for legislative office first. But she doesn’t want that. Good on her. I’m not a fan of dynasties.

    Which buttons does Burnside hit as a candidate of the Party of your choice?

  18. Simon² Katich® @ #825 Monday, March 11th, 2019 – 5:49 pm

    Question here, if Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez was an Aussie and got elected as a Australian Greens senator, how popular would she be among the voting public?

    So popular that the ALP would do everything they could to get her away from the Greens and into the ALP.

    This is a moot question. The value for someone like Occasio-Cortez is being part of a major party. There is no value for her in seeking nomination for the Greens as she would have no chance at being elected.

  19. She wouldn’t be in the Greens, she would be in the ALP. Clearly she is a woman in a hurry who wants to get things done.

  20. “Andrew “meh” Earlwood is annoyed that Democratic voters don’t share his lackadaisical attitude towards high stakes issues, don’t share his ageism, and don’t share his discomfort about a young woman exercising power and charisma.

    Centrists are in for a few surprises next year, that’s for sure.

    Their read on the state of presidential politics in the Democratic Party is seriously amiss.”

    Your convenient respect for the elderly, when it suits (ie. Bernie not Biden), love of demigods spouting easy shibboleths doesn’t paperover the fact you have no clue and no idea about building coalitions between folk with different views, even when common ground and common cause is to be had. Your political Taylor Swift is so up herself she thinks it’s a good idea to kick sand in the face of her potential allies and worse, potential voters.

    You are a cargo cultist. Your doctrinaire hectoring would not be out of place in some fundamentalist religion. Any political success your heroes enjoy are no more than flashes in the pan. Real progress is about boring holes in hard boards. The long game. Enduring coalitions.

  21. You have to think a certain sense of inevitability is creeping into the Murdoch media when The Australian puts out stuff like this.

    https://outline.com/fUFaWp

    Don’t panic, investors told

    Financial advisers are warning older investors not to panic as the introduction of changes to the franking credit system loom within the coming months.

    Top planners in wealth management suggest any changes to superannuation arrangements or share portfolios should be done with caution, as alternative plans may not be worth the trouble.

    Labor plans to terminate cash rebates to retirees who hold franking credits from “franked” Australian shares.

    Opposition treasury spokesman Chris Bowen has pencilled in July 1 this year as the date from which the policy will apply should Labor win a federal election expected in May.

  22. Today’s PvO on the Newspoll:

    Today’s Newspoll has sapped an already deflated Coalition of what little confidence remained.

    It was quite simply a momentum killer. Relentless campaigning on boats and the economy designed to scare voters off supporting Labor has seemingly fallen flat.

    Scott Morrison looks to have zero cut-through with an electorate that has made up its collective minds.

    And it’s no wonder. The distractions have been never ending.

    The Prime Minister put his foot in his mouth on International Women’s Day. New cabinet minister Linda Reynolds did the same over the weekend, highlighting her ignorance on wages polices.

    Tony Abbott landed yet another policy backflip on climate change action, this time designed to save his blue-ribbon seat of Warringah. And all of that before we even consider the shenanigans inside the Nationals, with talk of a leadership spill on April Fool’s Day (appropriate, really).

    (Link isn’t working for some reason)

    The coalition’s last ditch hope is the budget. But if people have made up their minds, I don’t expect Newspoll will shift other than at the MoE level.

  23. The pop-left will use Sanders to vilify and assail the Democratic Party, who they thoroughly despise. The more they do this, the less successful will Sanders be.

    Sanders should be the easy front runner. He lags a candidate who has not yet even entered the race – the empty chair of the US primary races.

    Sanders is anathema to Democrats….which is why the pop-left are behind him. He’s another decoy.

  24. Opposition treasury spokesman Chris Bowen has pencilled in July 1 this year as the date from which the policy will apply should Labor win a federal election expected in May.

    Won’t it have to go to parliament first?

  25. Dogs breakfast
    My younger sister was a thalidomide baby. She died 6 weeks old. My mother never forgave herself. Arseholes like Wade are beyond description.

  26. Fess a government can name a starting date for a tax change subject to the change being passed. It happens all the time with tax changes as it lessons the impact of people taking advantage of any delay in the passage of the bill.

  27. TPOF,

    I’ve always looked at your moniker as an abbreviation of the Brian Ferry clasic “The price of fame”.

  28. Big A Adrian
    There are very rapid technical advances in data ATM.
    At least 60,000 looks very, very strong now.
    The 120,000 looks more tenuous but Bowler seems quite unequivocal about it.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *