Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

Modest shifts on the primary vote cause Newspoll’s two-party meter to tick in favour of Labor.

The latest fortnightly Newspoll, courtesy of The Australian, has Labor extending its two-party lead from 53-47 to 54-46. The primary votes are Coalition 36% (down one), Labor 39% (steady), Greens 9% (steady) and One Nation 7% (up two). Both leaders’ personal ratings have improved slightly, with Scott Morrison up one on approval to 43% and down three on disapproval to 45%, and Bill Shorten up one to 36% and down two to 51%. Scott Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is 43-36, in from 44-35. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1610.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

950 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor”

  1. Nice zinger from Dee Madigan. Lib guy advising that you can’t read too much into a single poll result. She cut in to say “You’ve had 50 of them” 🙂

  2. The list of people being ignored: Murdoch,Benson,Kenny,Shanahan,Kelly,Sloan,Gottliebsen,Hadley,Jones,Price,Bolt,
    Murray,Helicopter,Credlin,Dean,Cameron,Abbott,Dutton,Morrison,McCormack,
    Joyce and many more.

    Its a beautiful thing.

  3. As per the previous thread, well done to those who went for the 54-46…………….not me, but happy for those who did…………………..

  4. davidwh:

    Seeing as the coalition have no economic policies that benefit the country, I’m betting the budget is going to be more of the same tripe they’ve served up to us the last 5 years. 🙂

  5. The full list of guesses.

    PB-Guess: Newspoll 2019-03-10
    Actual: ALP 54 to 46 LNP
    PB mean: ALP 54.3 to 45.7 LNP
    PB median: ALP 54.0 to 46.0 LNP
    No. Of PB Respondents: 77

    ALP / LNP
    54 / 46 (?)andy Murray
    53 / 47 a r
    52 / 48 Al Pal
    53 / 47 Andrew_Earlwood
    56 / 44 bilko
    52 / 48 BK
    54 / 46 booleanbach
    54 / 46 briefly
    54 / 46 bug1
    53 / 47 Burgey
    54 / 46 Catprog
    53 / 47 chinda63
    53 / 47 Confessions
    55 / 45 d-money
    98 / 2 Dan Gulberry
    55 / 45 Davidwh
    55 / 45 Dog’s Breakfast
    52 / 48 Douglas and Milko
    54 / 46 EB *permanent
    57 / 43 evatt
    54 / 46 Fozzie Logic
    53 / 47 Frednk *permanent
    55 / 45 Fulvio Sammut
    57 / 43 Gecko
    55 / 45 Goll
    52 / 48 grimace
    54 / 46 Harry “Snapper” Organs
    53 / 47 Henry
    53 / 47 imacca
    53 / 47 It’s Time
    54 / 46 j341983
    57 / 43 KayJay – all next polls
    54 / 46 klasib
    53 / 47 Late Riser
    54 / 46 Lynchpin
    52 / 48 Marcos De Feilittt
    55 / 45 martini henry
    54 / 46 Matt31
    53 / 47 Mavis Davis
    53 / 47 max
    54 / 46 Michael A
    54 / 46 Mundo
    55 / 45 OH
    54 / 46 Onebobsworth *cheat
    54 / 46 Outside Left
    53 / 47 pica
    53 / 47 Player One
    54 / 46 poroti
    53 / 47 Prolo
    55 / 45 Puffytmd
    53 / 47 Quasar *perpetuity
    55 / 45 Question
    53 / 47 Red13
    56 / 44 Rex Douglas
    54 / 46 rhwombat
    55 / 45 Scott
    53 / 47 SilentMajority
    56 / 44 Simon² Katich® *eternal
    51 / 49 Smokey
    50 / 50 Sprocket_
    53 / 47 Socrates
    55 / 45 Sohar
    53 / 47 sonar
    53 / 47 steve davis
    53 / 47 Steve777
    53 / 47 sustainable future
    54 / 46 The real Dave
    53 / 47 The Silver Bodgie
    55 / 45 Tom
    53 / 47 Tricot
    52 / 48 Tristo
    54 / 46 Upnorth
    53 / 47 Victoria
    53 / 47 Wayne
    54 / 46 Whisper
    54 / 46 Yabba
    53 / 47 Zoidlord

  6. Nice zinger from Dee Madigan. Lib guy advising that you can’t read too much into a single poll result. She cut in to say “You’ve had 50 of them”
    I aren’t a psephologist, and skipped statistics in maths but you could argue 50 consecutive polls is a trend.

  7. Unless Morrison brings in a budget that says no one will ever pay any tax ever again………. and the budget will be in surplus forever….. and the numbers all add up……he is toast.

  8. C@t, apparently Craig Kelly is on SkyFoxNews, and said the ‘only one poll’

    And no wonder GladysB wanted no part of Scotty talking at her launch today

  9. How’s the ‘rapist/ murderer refugees will overrun the hospitals and the country’ narrative going?
    Maybe ScoMo should crank it up a bit more (as I have seen some RWNJ suggest)?

  10. When Parliament next meets, can the majority override both 1. spending on Christmas Island Prison re-opening and 2. require medical treatment on mainland?

  11. It’s kind of pointless since the Shadow Comms Minister has basically admitted that areas connected via FTTN are stuck with it.So it isn’t really temporary, and may very well be permanent.

    Dan, believe it or not, the incoming Labor government when it sacks the NBNco board and starts investigating the fraud that has gone on, will have no choice but to scrap FTTN and replace, as quickly as technically possible. There is no way FTTN remaining for the next 20 years is a plausible scenario.

  12. Good news: after 5 months from application of a pretty straight forward case the Capitalist Profiteer Company running centrelink has awarded me my part aged pension, with a five month back pay.

    I so wish we had the terrible market stultifying semi-socialist system we had in the ’80’s when it would have taken two weeks!!

    But neither major party really supports public ownership anymore.

  13. Cud Chewer @ #34 Sunday, March 10th, 2019 – 7:06 pm

    It’s kind of pointless since the Shadow Comms Minister has basically admitted that areas connected via FTTN are stuck with it.So it isn’t really temporary, and may very well be permanent.

    Dan, believe it or not, the incoming Labor government when it sacks the NBNco board and starts investigating the fraud that has gone on, will have no choice but to scrap FTTN and replace, as quickly as technically possible. There is no way FTTN remaining for the next 20 years is a plausible scenario.

    I hope you’re right, however given all the messes Labor has to clean up this one may be low down the list of priorities. As I said, I hope I’m wrong but only time will tell.

  14. Morrison will obviously continue with boats and the surplus. What else, coal power stations for the ‘base’?
    The cover of the Australian yesterday had an article on more, larger tax cuts.

  15. Cud Chewer @ #33 Sunday, March 10th, 2019 – 7:06 pm

    It’s kind of pointless since the Shadow Comms Minister has basically admitted that areas connected via FTTN are stuck with it.So it isn’t really temporary, and may very well be permanent.

    Dan, believe it or not, the incoming Labor government when it sacks the NBNco board and starts investigating the fraud that has gone on, will have no choice but to scrap FTTN and replace, as quickly as technically possible. There is no way FTTN remaining for the next 20 years is a plausible scenario.

    Do you really think this will happen? I’m kind of with Dan G on this; Labor has so many problems left to it by the coalition, that broadband is down the list in terms of priority.

  16. Looks great for Labor now, but beware the wounded Pentecostal.. he will speak in tongues even worse now. .

    I got it right at 54/46 and I think its going to stay around that till the election. 90 seats is doable now. Go get this mess of a Government out of our sight Bill-

    Cat i took will relax after this mess is over – for a few years at least we wont have a…holes running the country 😀

    PS THANKS TO LATE RISER FOR RUNNING THE POLL AGAIN

  17. Morrison & Dutton must be very tempted right now to let it be known to the people smugglers that Christmas Island is open for business.

  18. In recent years the “traditional” polling movements have been defied by reality.

    Perhaps this year ‘the narrowing’ that is always touted, might not happen. The by-elections and Vic showed the opposite. We can always hope that the libs cop an absolute pasting and need to rebuild from the ground up — it will make for a ‘healthier’ political landscape if the rabid partisanship can be wound back.

    Abbott and Pyne were instrumental in destroying the political discourse. Pyne is going and Abbott might be also. The Duttons and Craig Kelly’s need to be booted too. The Murdoch influence is waning. If the Libs became more Liberal, we might be in for a more balanced discourse.

    And of course – an ICAC will help.

  19. Think Scott should stay out the limelight for awhile and see what happens but he can’t help himself. He would honestly believe that God will save the day.

    He is channeling Trump by doing something everyday irrespective whether it is good or not. The only issue is, we aren’t the USA.

  20. EB

    “I got it right at 54/46 and I think its going to stay around that till the election. 90 seats is doable now. Go get this mess of a Government out of our sight Bill-”
    —–

    I know, far to early to claim victory, but I chose 91 seats to Labour in the Contest some time ago!!!!

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