Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

Modest shifts on the primary vote cause Newspoll’s two-party meter to tick in favour of Labor.

The latest fortnightly Newspoll, courtesy of The Australian, has Labor extending its two-party lead from 53-47 to 54-46. The primary votes are Coalition 36% (down one), Labor 39% (steady), Greens 9% (steady) and One Nation 7% (up two). Both leaders’ personal ratings have improved slightly, with Scott Morrison up one on approval to 43% and down three on disapproval to 45%, and Bill Shorten up one to 36% and down two to 51%. Scott Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is 43-36, in from 44-35. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1610.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

950 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor”

  1. spr
    Howard going for the same Berejiklian ear that Morrison targetted. Actually it looks like he might have bitten some of it off and is not sure he can chew it.

  2. Don’t you love dissension in the Ranks, dissembling – and now the ‘Moderates’ are saying a government guaranteed coal fired power station is, here are their words…

    “Zimmerman said he was a strong supporter of the government’s recent commitments on Snowy 2.0 and the Tasmanian “battery to the nation” project but he was emphatic in his opposition to government-backed coal.

    The Sydney Liberal said “a Liberal government should not be in the business of building new coal-fired power stations in circumstances when the market is not prepared to do so”.

    Wilson concurred and said Morrison was correct to hose down the new campaign from the Nationals. “I presume the intention is to deliver lower power prices,” the Victorian Liberal said Monday. “When has government building anything led to lower prices?

    “We have a policy, and what we need is discipline so we can deliver our reliable, affordable and environmentally sustainability plan before and after the election.”

    Evans, a Brisbane-based Liberal moderate, also distanced himself from the pro-coal campaign from Queensland Nationals, declaring the group a “lonely minority” that is “whistling Dixie on this”.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/mar/11/liberals-attack-queensland-nationals-push-for-coal-fired-power-stations?CMP=share_btn_tw

  3. lizzie says:
    Monday, March 11, 2019 at 6:15 pm

    A woman on The Drum keeps insisting that Morrison is doing well and increasing the Lib vote. Really???

    That would be including the effects of immigration!

  4. Barrie says

    “Labor leads the Coalition 39/36 on primaries nationally. That’s the real stunner. Last election they got just 31% in Qld and 35.5% in vic.”

  5. Barney
    I believe she has links to the Liberal Party.
    Unfortunately the Drum is starting to put on the panel a Liberal hack an evening.
    These shills absolutely wreck an otherwise excellent panel discussion.

  6. Just checking the odds on Ladbrokes for the Federal election. They have the Greens at $21 in Cooper (replacing Batman). I don’t think they will win but I think the odds should slightly shorter given that they are mostly going to come second.
    Also they have the Liberals on $5.50 so I think they might have stuffed up that one.

  7. “Davidwh says:
    Monday, March 11, 2019 at 6:49 pm
    Sheridan is dreaming. Labor will get enough preferences for an easy win.”

    When reality becomes too much, fantasyland is so much less stressful.

  8. They are eating themselves alive!

    Sunrise Twitter:

    “You’ve had five and a half years and done nothing about it!” — @PaulineHansonOZ clashes with @Barnaby_Joyce over power policy. #auspol

  9. AOC is correct to point out the nihilism of moderates:

    Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez drew a huge crowd at South by Southwest as interest in the freshman lawmaker’s talk far surpassed any of the Democratic presidential candidates who took part in the annual festival. Ocasio-Cortez spoke in a huge ballroom that didn’t even manage to accommodate everyone who wanted to get a glimpse of the star lawmaker.

    During her talk, Ocasio-Cortez came out strongly against moderates, expressing disbelief that it is often talked about as a desirable quality in politicians. “Moderate is not a stance. It’s just an attitude towards life of, like, ‘meh’,” she said as she shrugged her shoulders and the audience cheered. “We’ve become so cynical, that we view ‘meh,’ or ‘eh’—we view cynicism as an intellectually superior attitude, and we view ambition as youthful naivete when we think about the greatest things we have ever accomplished as a society have been ambitious acts of visions,” she said. Ocasio-Cortez went on: “And the ‘meh’ is like worshipped now for what? Like, for what?” The audience cheered again.

    https://slate.trib.al/tvf7zRd

  10. A brief report from the hustings.

    I spent an hour after work handing out for Labor at pre-poll (NSW).

    Very few voters at this stage, and mostly progressive I would say, given that they had big smiles for the three of us there handing out, and politely took one of each of our HTVs, and then brought them back for recycling. One out of area voter was an exception – a bit disapproving, and saying she needed no help, she knew exactly who she was voting for.

    The other two people handing out were there all day, and were the candidates themselves. Really lovely people, and we had an enormous amount in common.

    So, I handed out with alongside the Greens candidate and the Animal Justice Party candidate.

    It was great to be reminded that the progressive side of politics do not not agree on everything, but we are all working towards the same goals. It gives me hope a more progressive Australia is just around the corner.

    The Liberals did not bother – obviously running dead in what they have decided is a safe Labor seat, despite demographic change that favours them.

    Posted here as well as in the NSW election thread, as we are the same people who will be handing out for the Federal election, whenever it is called.

  11. Nicholas

    “Moderate is not a stance. It’s just an attitude towards life of, like, ‘meh’,” she said as she shrugged her shoulders and the audience cheered. “We’ve become so cynical, that we view ‘meh,’ or ‘eh’—we view cynicism as an intellectually superior attitude, and we view ambition as youthful naivete when we think about the greatest things we have ever accomplished as a society have been ambitious acts of visions,” she said. Ocasio-Cortez went on: “And the ‘meh’ is like worshipped now for what? Like, for what?” The audience cheered again.’

    Meh. Utterly meaningless Trump-style gobbledigook.

  12. zoomster says:
    Monday, March 11, 2019 at 6:31 pm
    Ah, just caught a bit of Credlin. Can’t remember who the journo was (Sheridan?) but he gave the obligatory Newspoll spin.

    Apparently all these Newspolls are bad for Labor because they show that Labor is ‘stuck’ on a primary of 39% and ON have gone up 2% so that means everyone who is disaffected with the Liberals are voting for minor parties or indies, so that means we could end up with a hung Parliament.

    And this is bad news for LABOR TOO – They all went missing in today’s Australian Kenny AWOL Sheridan AWOL etc except Benson. I’d love to get a blow up of this plastered on a billboard opposite Liberal HQ in NSW

  13. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez drew a huge crowd at South by Southwest as interest in the freshman lawmaker’s talk far surpassed any of the Democratic presidential candidates who took part in the annual festival.

    Yeah. SXSW is so totally a representative sample of the US.

  14. I didn’t quite realise how full of shit and condescending AOC was before now. Good luck with her finding common cause with folk that have different views than hers. That kind of arrogance may work for a season in a dictatorship but it jars in a democracy. Especially one where power is deliberately diffused between branches and levels of governemnt and further fragmented between regions.

    I’m starting to think she’s little more than a flake on a vanity mission. Just like Tulusi. Just like Bernie. No wonder our resident flake loves them all.

  15. I have never seen a government so wilfully destroying itself as this Morrison government.

    That is a direct quote from Andrew Bolt in opening his show tonight. Meanwhile Rita Panahi, who partners Steve Price on 3aw, refers to the Liberals just about every night as ‘hopeless’. Even their most ardent supporters have written them off.

  16. This may (MAY) mean that human habitation goes back to 120,000 years ago rather than the currently commonly accepted 60-70,000 years ago.

    I must say that I have always kind of supported the 120,000 year theory for biogeographical reasons. That is when large scale movement towards fire dependent euc vegetation started.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/postcolonial-blog/2019/mar/11/a-big-jump-people-might-have-lived-in-australia-twice-as-long-as-we-thought

  17. Have to laugh at those exercising their wishful thinking re Michelle Obama. Let’s look at her qualifications.

    1. Held a local government post, run for a local legislature? Nup
    2. Held a state government post, or run for a state legislature? Nup.
    3. Held a federal government post. or run for federal legislature? Nup?
    4 Can point to a significant independent professional achievement, not associated with being first lady? Nup

    Also, Alberci has just shown by her comments re the minimum wage what a cocooned no nothing she is.

  18. Douglas and Milko you are a champion! Thank you for helping the ALP after a long day at work. My stint begins tomorrow at 8am. 🙂

  19. “Have to laugh at those exercising their wishful thinking re Michelle Obama. Let’s look at her qualifications.

    1. Held a local government post, run for a local legislature? Nup
    2. Held a state government post, or run for a state legislature? Nup.
    3. Held a federal government post. or run for federal legislature? Nup?
    4 Can point to a significant independent professional achievement, not associated with being first lady? Nup”

    I totally agree. Love Michelle, but elected office is not for her. If she aspired to it, she’d have taken a different path than the one she has walked. I wish her all the best for her chosen path, not the one others have imagined for her.

  20. clem attlee says:
    Monday, March 11, 2019 at 7:51 pm
    Have to laugh at those exercising their wishful thinking re Michelle Obama. Let’s look at her qualifications.

    1. Held a local government post, run for a local legislature? Nup
    2. Held a state government post, or run for a state legislature? Nup.
    3. Held a federal government post. or run for federal legislature? Nup?
    4 Can point to a significant independent professional achievement, not associated with being first lady? Nup
    __________________________________

    Hillary Clinton, on the other hand, was the most highly qualified candidate for President ever – and her experience actually disqualified her in the eyes of her haters.

    Politics is excusing the misconduct of those you support and finding misconduct in any action (or non-action) of those you oppose. Even if it’s the same conduct in both cases.

    As for Michelle Obama, her popularity is derived directly from her not running for President. If she changed her mind that support would evaporate and she would, like Hillary Clinton, be subject to the most vile and baseless allegations by those who have no interest in the truth or integrity.

  21. Leroy @ #766 Monday, March 11th, 2019 – 7:12 pm

    Worth watching the video clip in this tweet from tonight’s 10 news. I hadn’t realised PvO is doing TV news articles now, not just appearing on panel shows. Note the bit about Liberal seat sandbagging towards the end.

    https://twitter.com/10NewsFirstSyd/status/1105009571557449728

    Interestingly, more detailed, informative and dare I say more entertaining than Laura Tingle’s brief and anodyne piece on 7.30 this evening.

    It’s a curious state of affairs when 10 appears to be better at politics than #ourABC.

  22. Boerwar @ #782 Monday, March 11th, 2019 – 7:53 pm

    C@t
    Not a very inspiring person, IMO.

    A longtime Liberal, former mayor of Waverley Council, until the Liberals got rolled at the last council elections because she wanted to redevelop the Bondi Pavillion and thoroughly commercialise it (there’s a photo of her in this article which shows her true face):

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/waverley-mayor-sally-betts-claims-she-was-hung-drawn-quartered-and-vilified-over-leaked-report-20170623-gwx2u5.html

  23. “Have to laugh at those exercising their wishful thinking re Michelle Obama. Let’s look at her qualifications.”

    Okay, now run your criteria against Trump. How is he president then?

    I suggest that the criteria you’ve chosen aren’t actually relevant to being elected president of the United States.

  24. The Libs are heavily spruiking their anti-franking credit petition on … wait for it … realestate.com.au.

    Because we all know that’s where most cash-strapped retirees spend their time when online

  25. clem attlee @ #779 Monday, March 11th, 2019 – 7:51 pm

    Have to laugh at those exercising their wishful thinking re Michelle Obama. Let’s look at her qualifications.

    1. Held a local government post, run for a local legislature? Nup
    2. Held a state government post, or run for a state legislature? Nup.
    3. Held a federal government post. or run for federal legislature? Nup?
    4 Can point to a significant independent professional achievement, not associated with being first lady? Nup

    Also, Alberci has just shown by her comments re the minimum wage what a cocooned no nothing she is.

    Alberici understandably not getting a lot of love on Twitter for the question on minimum wage earners having to eat into their savings.
    Tells you everything you need to know about most of the journalistic class.

  26. So TPOF, the main factor in running for office is popularity? So administrative experience, the discipline and commitment of running and possessing a policy background don’t matter?

    AR and look at how that has turned out! I am referring to how a person would perform, which I think is more important than which candidate looks best in a swim suit.

  27. “So TPOF, the main factor in running for office is popularity? So administrative experience, the discipline and commitment of running and possessing a policy background don’t matter?”

    Of course they don’t. Just ask Nicholas.

  28. PVO on channel 10 news got a good laugh out of me, that Monty Python skit never gets old, as always very appropriate for this government.

  29. clem attlee says:
    Monday, March 11, 2019 at 8:11 pm
    So TPOF, the main factor in running for office is popularity? So administrative experience, the discipline and commitment of running and possessing a policy background don’t matter?
    _______________________________

    I’m not surprised that you totally missed the point.

  30. Steve Price says that Michael Daley has done an amazing job to come from nowhere to be seriously challenging for the NSW Premiership. He also said that Daley’s upbraiding of Alan Jones was a clever tactic and that Jones deserved it. If I wasn’t hearing this stuff with my own ears I wouldn’t believe it.

    He also said that of the two campaign launches Labor’s was by far the most impressive. Amazing stuff coming from such a conservative source.

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